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stoney

Part of the unwashed, middle-American horde
Jul 26, 2006
21,520
7,069
Colorado
If by some miracle Bernie is elected and gets that enacted my taxes would go up by more than I'd benefit. Someone has to pay for it. I would be ok with that and would change my plans accordingly but it would cost me more net.
The funding is supposed to come from the $.01/share investment tax. Shouldn't hit income, however SS will go up.
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,035
7,553
For auction: The Ultimate James Bond Collection. That'd be all 23 Bond films from Dr. No through Skyfall in Blu-Ray.

http://www.ebay.com/itm/-/111977544664?

I'm selling this with a 1 cent starting bid and no reserve. (Wife and I watched through them all and I redeemed the digital copies so there's really no reason to keep this around.)

Please pass along this listing to anyone you thing might be interested.
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,035
7,553


It took an agonizing 56 days from submission until getting it but my state tax refund is finally here. (We would have been even but for the RAV4 EV purchase this past year.)
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,035
7,553
The time has finally come to follow through on my promises to get non-winter tires for the RAV4 EV and the Land Cruiser. The question is whether to mount and remount the tires each season on stock wheels or get an extra set of wheels. (The astute reader will note that I've mused about this before. That old post has broken links to the allfactorywheels.com product listings, though.)

Let's assume that the extra wheels add nothing to resale/replacement value if the vehicles get totaled for simplicity. I probably could sell them on Craigslist but that'd just be worth my time and nothing more.

Mount/remount costs: Cost to mount/remount 4 tires (I ignore the Land Cruiser's spare and the RAV4 EV has no spare) is $16 per wheel x 4 wheels x 2 times per year x local tax rate, or about $138/year per vehicle.

Extra wheel costs: Current refurbished wheel prices for RAV4 EV alloys looks to be $613 with shipping and tax. Refurbished Tundra alloys for my Land Cruiser would similarly run $581 with shipping and tax. This would be a one time cost as I have a jack and tools so could easily swap out wheels in the garage.

Therefore breaking even with a 5% discount rate is at $138 * 2 * [N years] == ($613 + $581) * 1.05 ^ [N years]. That works out to be just shy of 6 years. The question then is "will I have either or both of these vehicles in 6 years?"

For the RAV4 EV I think that answer will be no. The extended warranty is up in February or March 2021, iirc, and I foresee that it'll be replaced by a Tesla Model Y around or before that point.

For the Land Cruiser, though, I think the answer is yes. I don't foresee it breaking down and I don't foresee selling it. (My Model 3 is going to supplement it, not replace it.)
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,035
7,553
Trigger pulled:


1 set of 18" Tundra wheels. Used via eBay for $429 shipped with center caps, which is quite a bit better than the refurbished $581 price from allfactorywheels.com without center caps.


1 set of 275/70R18 Hankook Dynapro AT-M meats, which is ~33". Bro-wheels not included--see above for what I'll run with them on the Land Cruiser. OEM wheels will be dedicated to the snow tires.


1 set of 225/65R17 (stock size) Continental TrueContact low rolling resistance tires for the RAV4 EV. I'll pay a local tire shop to swap these and the Nokians each season on the OEM wheels.
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,035
7,553
Hmph. I forgot about the cost/hassle of TPMS. This extra cost will negate the savings from my cheaper wheels...



Note that one maintenance kit and one sensor is needed per wheel, so this is about $180 in parts alone (plus the small/cheap tools).




Update: My local Discount Tire will do $160 for 4 TPMS including installation and setup. This would be $195 + $80 in setup for the part-DYI route so I'm going with Discount Tire. Might even switch my tire order over to them.

Yup, now switched over. They'll do $200/tire for 275/70R18 BFG AT KO2, which is a nice little break from retail:



Also getting the same Continentals for the Tire Rack price from Discount Tire. Very nice, very nice.
 
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Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,035
7,553
Thinking ahead here since I'm putting my July-September vacation requests in soon:

- don't really have vacation plans other than 10 days in Seattle in July, and can't really schedule anything in August or September in case my wife actually lands a teaching job
- we will know if she has a job, clearly, by mid-August, which is when I'll request October-December vacation requests
- this winter is the one where I will pick up skiing again

I'm thinking Wednesday through Sunday at one of the semi-local resorts would be a nice trip while preserving weekday vacation days somewhat. Days for traveling and gathering up rented gear on either side. 3 days in the middle to ski. If I pick a place that has child care (and the majority seem to have it!) then Yuna is taken care of. Half day lessons for Mariko + wife skiing/taking lessons that same half day takes care of them + Mariko's care. I can ski all day or until my legs are toast, probably more limited by that than anything. :D

Places that definitely offer childcare, with prices for advance purchase full day:

- $169 at Snowmass
- $119 at Keystone
- $139 at Winter Park
- $139 at Copper Mountain
- $124 at Breckenridge

Oof. Skiing is definitely a rich man's game, or rather the game of a man who would be rich were it not for the expense of hauling kids up to go skiing. Just for kicks I'm going to sketch out how much my 5 day total/3 days on slopes ski trip would cost at Winter Park, picking more or less randomly:

- 150 miles of driving. Let's say 12 gallons in the Land Cruiser to be generous, so cheap: $36 maybe? $75 with using the I-70 express lane on way back? Either way the cheapest part of the whole package.
- 4 nights of lodging: looks to be about $200/night with multi-night discount for a 1 bedroom condo. Wife will want 2 bedrooms but I couldn't figure out how to price that. Let's call it $1000 with tax and a larger room.
- lift tickets are super confusing since the website only shows the discount May skiing tix. Looks like $113/day for adults and $66/day for Mariko is in order. Oof again: $537 + tax for 3 full 2 adult 1 kid days.
- rental is cheap in comparison, probably $120/day all said and done for the three of us (I gave away/sold my skis years ago)
- expensive resort food, so $100/day?
- lessons for Mariko would be $220 including the rental

Looks like I should budget at least $3,000 for each one of these escapades...

One day at Winter Park for just me on a weekday would be $36 in gas (no express lane tolls on weekdays!), no lodging, $113 lift ticket, $45 rental with tax, and $20 for lunch. Just over $200. The price of having a family...
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,035
7,553
Biking does seem like a sanely priced hobby in comparison to skiing, now that you mention it. 10 days at Winter Park == a very nice dentist bike... :D

That said I can cut down on the skiing expenses by doing yearly equipment rental at REI, renting a house through VRBO, and possibly even flying out the mother in law in lieu of child care. Crazy that a plane ticket would be cheaper but it could well be...
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,035
7,553
When does it make sense to buy photovoltaic (solar) panels for one's residence?

This is actually a non-trivial question. Part of it depends on one's tolerance for pollution and the cleanliness of one's local grid. (The UCS can help with those data.)

For me in Denver I have a very dirty grid but have and use the option to offset all of my electricity usage with wind energy credits. Therefore I personally have only a financial incentive to add more solar to my well-insulated house as my power is already effectively zero carbon.

So how does that financial incentive play out? The answer is in the intersection of falling PV panel costs and sunsetting tax credits. These tax credits are 30% from now through 12/31/19, 26% thereafter until 12/31/20, and then 22% until 12/31/21.

The problem therefore comes down to "are residential installed solar prices coming down at more than 4% per year?", at least if one isn't ready to roll by 2019. Whether prices are declining at more than 4%/year is unclear to me but from the long-term and industrial trends that I've been reading about it seems quite plausible. In that case it'd make sense to wait until 2021… but making sure not to miss the deadline as that last dropoff is from 22% to 0% overnight!

This actually works out nicely for cash flow purposes for my household, too: My 65 month (!) but very low interest car notes will be done in about 48 months and Yuna should be wrapping up (paid out of pocket) preschool at about that time, too. It'd be a shame to get some expensive solar system to feed a Tesla or two in the garage and then feel cash poor each month and resent those things as a result.

It'll also work out nicely in terms of having several years of data via SolarCity on how much energy my/SolarCity's 2.6 kW power array generates over the course of a typical year, and also how much juice we suck down in this house (including that used to charge the RAV4 EV). We want to get to net zero but I don't think Xcel will allow us to install any more than that + 10%.

Cliffs Notes: Time to put in a calendar event for August 1, 2021 to get some solar quotes.
 

Nick

My name is Nick
Sep 21, 2001
23,928
14,450
where the trails are
Consider a season pass for skiing. It allows you unlimited skiing at several partner resorts, pays for itself after 5-6 days vs. daily lift tickets, gets you discounted guest passes for the wife, potential FREE skiing for the kids and discounts on lessons and rentals for the family.

:nerd: bust out your spreadsheet-foo and run the numbers.
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,035
7,553
What resort(s) would you recommend for a pass? Too many choices! With a pass, season rental at REI + judicious use of AirBNB/VRBO I bet I can shave that total significantly.

Wife - green groomer cruiser kind of skier.
3 year old - never skied before.
1 year old - not skiing for at least a few seasons.
Me - I'm not going to carry an avalanche beacon or hit big cliffs but within a resort I will/used to ski everything else.
 

Nick

My name is Nick
Sep 21, 2001
23,928
14,450
where the trails are
Winter Park is a very family friendly resort. Their Super + pass gets you full access to WP/MJ, Copper, Eldora and a bunch of free days as Steamboat, Crested Butte and some international spots, and each adult pass gets one free child under 12 pass included. That's >$1,200 for the entire family for the whole season
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,035
7,553
Once one becomes accustomed to a certain level of luxury…








/stoney
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,035
7,553
When we built this super insulated house (R-38 in walls and R-50 in roof + double paned glass throughout for those not following along) we hoped that its design and construction would result in the kids' rooms not getting hotter and colder than the rest of the house.

No such luck.

The two kids' rooms, both south facing with pretty big windows, are consistently 76-77 degrees these days when the A/C is keeping the main floor at 70. Can't defeat the physics of solar gain, even with double cell cellular blackout shades in place, especially since their doors are closed much of the time. In the part of winter that we went through the temperature differential the other way was less but they still were a couple of degrees colder than the rest of the place thanks to those windows again.

I am thinking that after bonus time this fall I'll hire a contractor to put in a two head ductless mini split heat pump system, with the two heads in their bedrooms. That way we won't have to set the main thermostat to extremes (e.g. set at 68 degrees now so as to get their rooms below 75), even though running the main system is cheap since it's 21 SEER...
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,035
7,553
To whom it may concern [at the builder warranty department]-

I’d like to open a warranty complaint for the AC system. We’re at [addresshere]. The issue is that the two upstairs kid bedrooms are consistently 6-7 degrees warmer than the rest of the house. I am concerned that this large temperature variance shows that there is insufficient air flow to those rooms, noting that per the contract the rooms were each supposed to be within 10% of calculated airflow, and that this calculated airflow and cooling load were supposed to take the orientation of these rooms into account.

I’d be open to suggestions on how to address this. This temperature variance is with double cell cellular shades in place, and we just put up solar reflective film on those windows in question as well to try and lower the solar gain. Thanks.

-[me]
Their reply was to adjust the vents to shut off the lower floors. I thought that was an HVAC no-no from an efficiency and equipment longevity standpoint.
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,035
7,553


I just need a flat billed hat and some Monster stickers now...


With the new, taller tires it seems like I need to pay more attention to overhead clearance signs.

This shows an inch, it that, between the roof rack rails and a 6' 5" bar with the air suspension at normal height. It'll be even more dire with ski attachments…
 
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Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,035
7,553
I got another paper accepted today. That's 14. We also resubmitted a different paper with a very minor revision (added all of four words to one section, that's it). That'll be 15. Another revised paper will be submitted by my fellow today. Assuming that gets in, 16. Meanwhile reviewers are mulling over a major revision to what I think is a very strong paper, the Matlab modeling one I've been working on since fall 2013. That'll be 17–it'll get in somewhere, probably the original journal with this revision.

Recall that I need at least 20 for promotion. I should be there by this time next year, if not by Christmas or so.

:monkey:

Wednesday edit: Papers 15 and 16 were accepted yesterday and today. 17 is still out for review probably for another month, as the people in question are preparing for a big conference in Singapore (where some of my work will be presented, albeit not by me since I ran out of travel money long ago this year).
 
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Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,035
7,553
Construction continues on my and adjacent neighborhoods. Part of this is an extension of the east-west road that I'm near, see highlighted area:



I live right around the text of "Wabash Way" in the left part of that map.

I was excited to see the plans and the construction in progress on this segment because then it might let me drop off the kid at her preschool via bike. Indeed it'd allow for a very reasonable, safe route:



The 1 and 2 are mile markers.

The logical extension of this thought would be whether I could easily bike to work if I dropped off the kid. The answer to that is a big ol' nope, unfortunately. Here's the best route that I could come up with:



Note that this is over 8 miles. The direct route from my house to work is 6.5 miles. The reason for this huge detour is that the Peoria and Havana St interchanges with I-70 are designed for cars. They're basically impassable for pedestrians or bicyclists and I have no desire to die or to mix it up with 35-45 mph traffic with no shoulder or bike lane, whether it's my right as a cyclist or not.


For reference this is why Havana is bad, noting that the sidewalk ends just in time for the I-70 interchange. It's a 40 mph marked road, for reference:




Peoria is even worse, as it has a right lane peeling off for I-70 East on the north side of the intersection, and incoming traffic from I-70 West on the south side of the intersection (the cement truck beyond the bus). It's also 40 mph when approaching the intersection:





The moral of this story is that I'll have to choose between biking and dropping off the kid, unless I'm willing to put in a lot of time on an electric bike and go out of my way. Denver's biking infrastructure is great in places but not where I want to go.
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,035
7,553
So the wife wants an Electra Townie to cruise around on with kids in trailer. I have my doubts that she will use it after she didn't use the last bike I bought for her.

At least if I buy it REI I could return it just short of a year if it doesn't get used, I guess. Hmph.

Also spotted at REI today was an Early Rider kids pedal bike with a belt drive (!). Mariko is still firmly in strider bike size and riding skills range. Maybe next spring she will be ready for pedals.
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,035
7,553
There is that one. She wants one with a 7 speed derailleur setup and no electric bits. $500/600 vs $2800? Something like that.
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,035
7,553
1) Finally drove the Lariat Loop. Not mind blowing all around but the Lookout Mtn/Lariat Loop road itself was pretty sweet.



2) I drove around the neighborhood to kill some time as Mariko napped at the tail end of the Lariat Loop trip and revisited the two bad-for-bikers/pedestrians interchanges, along Peoria and Havana when they cross I-70.

Upon second thought I think either actually could work. Havana would be nicer but 2 miles longer. Peoria would probably be best attacked with a big set of balls, riding in the (stop and go morning traffic) traffic lanes... Unless I'm shooting for "I got hit by a car... again!" sob stories and resultant sympathy it'd probably be better to take the extra time along Havana. Peoria also absolutely wouldn't work with a trailer, whereas Havana would be trailer-amenable.

I'm going to the Denver Electric Bike Expo in about a month. I'll have to test ride some electric cargo/longtail bikes to see if any catch my fancy, or suck it up and hook the trailer up to whatever I ride. The Yuba Spicy Curry would work on paper sans trailer. Note that the first part of this route from home to school to work with kids would be on safe, protected streets. (I wouldn't take the kids across that I-70 interchange on a bike!)

 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,035
7,553
The Yuba Spicy Curry would work on paper sans trailer. Note that the first part of this route from home to school to work with kids would be on safe, protected streets. (I wouldn't take the kids across that I-70 interchange on a bike!)

The real question is of whether having such a dork-bike would actually improve my life. Would dropping off the kids on such a thing and then pedaling into work be better than dropping them off in a Tesla and getting my sweat on some other way that doesn't involve fighting subpar biking infrastructure?

I really need to get my ass in gear post-Japan, rent a bike, and hit some Golden trails. If I like that then that solves it. If I don't... maybe get back into indoor climbing? There is an indoor gym opening soon.
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,035
7,553
The real question is of whether having such a dork-bike would actually improve my life. Would dropping off the kids on such a thing and then pedaling into work be better than dropping them off in a Tesla and getting my sweat on some other way that doesn't involve fighting subpar biking infrastructure?
I answered this for myself in short order. This morning I dropped off the Land Cruiser at Discount Tire because the new TPMS sensors are causing it to flip out (flashing TPMS symbol). 1.2 miles on the bike from there to work, on Colfax and Peoria. Both of these roads are comparable to those that I'd see from Mariko's preschool to work if I bought the dork-bike.

It was not a rewarding experience, either in the traffic lanes on Colfax (although I did get to show off my still-present trackstanding skills to waiting drivers) or on the sidewalk on busy 3-lane-per-side Peoria.

Carbon credits for the Land Cruiser + our house's NG usage, Tesla with Autopilot, and finding an active hobby for me (whether biking or climbing or whatever) are in order.
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,035
7,553
dude. you were right in the neighborhood. I am disappoint.
I was in the Land Cruiser with no bike, Mariko in her car seat, and a mandate to get home by dinnertime. The flowing trails along the cut of the hill did look quite nice, though. Funny how it's so much less exciting once one gets up on the plateau.
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,035
7,553
There are a shit ton of people on bikes in Japan. Note that I didn't write "bicyclists". Maybe 1 in 100 seem like they actually enjoy it. Everyone else is just getting to work, school, or the store.

Lots of kid seats, many with 2! Lots of mid drive electrics, too. It's quite refreshing to see unaccompanied kids on bikes, on foot, on the train. Likely as a result there are very few fat kids. CPS mania is out of hand in the US.
 

dump

Turbo Monkey
Oct 12, 2001
8,195
4,419
Is that sucker going to tip forwards when she gets off the bike to help them get out of the basket?
Perhaps a better question: are they going to be driving before that thing arrives? ;)

Seriously though, I have a rear bike seat and i'm always teetering near the balance point when the kid is on the seat. It's only going to get worse as he gets bigger. Basically, I have to have weight on the bike with him wiggling in there... that sometimes means that I'm sitting on the top tube facing backwards as I get him situated.
 

StiHacka

Compensating for something
Jan 4, 2013
21,560
12,504
In hell. Welcome!
Ummm - an israeli kickstarter company saying to be US based that has more employees in marketing + sales than in engineering and yet obviously spent $$$ on a marketing vendor that prepared the campaign.

:popcorn:
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,035
7,553
The jungle of a yard pre-mowing (6 weeks since turf was laid without mowing):





Two 72V 2Ah batteries accomplished this much. Took 2.5? more to finish up this patch and do the front lawn as well. Unacceptable from that standpoint, not to mention the uneven cut and the clumpy mulch.

To test how the mower would do with a non-jungle setting I then mowed the front lawn again 2 height settings lower (so maybe 0.75" off?). One battery didn't even get the mower through the front lawn alone.