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2018 predictions thread

manhattanprjkt83

Rusty Trombone
Jul 10, 2003
9,644
1,214
Nilbog
Plus bikes are gonna be dead in 3 years.
You know I keep hearing this but I don't think it's true. I am in the camp that plus bikes blow for going fast and slashing turns, I would never run them on a bike meant for that (or even a fully). To me they seem to be a very geographical thing, here in the north east for the slower speed technical riding some of our XC trails have, they are actually a pretty good tool. Esp now that the casings are getting better (minion 2.6/2.8). I do enjoy them on my chromag hardtail...But this is the DH forum so I get the hate haha...
 

atrokz

Turbo Monkey
Mar 14, 2002
1,552
77
teedotohdot
Was thinking of getting a 29/27.5+ hardtail for snow riding around here, to avoid a fatbike. Tried one and it sucked donkey balls for going fast, floppy and poor tracking, but for slow riding it prob wont be bad. Not sure how great they are in snow though, but I'd like to ride the other 10 months of the year here. Figure use the 29er option for the lame trails and cardiobro rides and plus nonsense for winter.
 

jonKranked

Detective Dookie
Nov 10, 2005
85,573
24,191
media blackout
You know I keep hearing this but I don't think it's true. I am in the camp that plus bikes blow for going fast and slashing turns, I would never run them on a bike meant for that (or even a fully). To me they seem to be a very geographical thing, here in the north east for the slower speed technical riding some of our XC trails have, they are actually a pretty good tool. Esp now that the casings are getting better (minion 2.6/2.8). I do enjoy them on my chromag hardtail...But this is the DH forum so I get the hate haha...
from what i've heard 2017 sales, while not bad volume wise, didn't grow as much as anticipated. so a lot of dealers are nervous for 2018 since those orders were placed months ago and are already shipping (nervous that there will be excess inventory end of the season). ive heard talk that they are gonna be scaled back (from an OEM perspective) for 2019.

you're right in what they're good for, they're not as much for the fast crowd. but the casings seem to be the problem, a lot of riders are frustrated that they've gotta run heavy tires for durability, or run paper thin tires that slash easily to hit a reasonable weight. as you said, there are some better casings out there now, but i think some riders have already been turned off from the category, or aren't the kind of riders who are gear junkies and constantly swapping out / trying new tires. prediction i heard is things are gonna settle down to the 2.5-2.6 range because you can still get a good volume tire with a casing at a reasonable weight and still maintain durability.
 

Sandwich

Pig my fish!
Staff member
May 23, 2002
21,031
5,921
borcester rhymes
that's actually exactly what i have. bought a plus bike because it was crazy cheap and had good geometry. swapped in 29er wheels for the summer and for carting kids around. Kept the plus wheels for if I ever do a snow ride. I'm not sold on fatbikes, and don't like the WIDE STANCE that you need with 120mm BBs. Plus is like the ultimate compromise...good at plenty, great at nothing.
 

Tantrum Cycles

Turbo Monkey
Jun 29, 2016
1,143
503
i wouldn't float this kind of conjecture if i hadn't heard it somewhere reliable.
I can see bikes that are specifically "plus" going away. But I don't see the tire dia/wheel/rim width/tire width issue going away. As much as I wish it would from a design/mfg/geo point of view.

I have customers running 2.6/2.8/3.0's x 27.5 on my frames. Those tires need to be used in the 29er config, which, depending on the tires, usually means lower BB. but maybe you run a longer fork and it raises it up and slackens it a bit, not bad....ya, don't get me started on fork length variations

Here's some tire fun. 2.3 x 27.5, 2.6 x 27.5, 2.8 x 27.5, 2.3 x 29. The 2.3's are on 30 mm internal width, the other 2 on 35's.
tire size comparo.jpg
 

Cerberus75

Monkey
Feb 18, 2017
520
194
You know I keep hearing this but I don't think it's true. I am in the camp that plus bikes blow for going fast and slashing turns, I would never run them on a bike meant for that (or even a fully). To me they seem to be a very geographical thing, here in the north east for the slower speed technical riding some of our XC trails have, they are actually a pretty good tool. Esp now that the casings are getting better (minion 2.6/2.8). I do enjoy them on my chromag hardtail...But this is the DH forum so I get the hate haha...
Maybe for hardtails, but I personally just don't like the uncontrolled rebound.
 

SylentK

Turbo Monkey
Feb 25, 2004
2,287
854
coloRADo
I think plus sized tires will stick around. I'm talking 27.5 x 2.8 specifically, and specifically on a 29er frame (I doubt that tire would fit a 27.5 frame). The Maxxis Ikon has worked really well for me. Getting the pressure right is the key. I've even ran them at Keystone on the same DH tracks as my DH tires. Maybe it was a miracle (I pretty much know where all the rocks are). But I had a blast. I have a 2.6 minion too, but haven't had that much time on it yet. My 2 cents.
 

manhattanprjkt83

Rusty Trombone
Jul 10, 2003
9,644
1,214
Nilbog
I think plus sized tires will stick around. I'm talking 27.5 x 2.8 specifically, and specifically on a 29er frame (I doubt that tire would fit a 27.5 frame). The Maxxis Ikon has worked really well for me. Getting the pressure right is the key. I've even ran them at Keystone on the same DH tracks as my DH tires. Maybe it was a miracle (I pretty much know where all the rocks are). But I had a blast. I have a 2.6 minion too, but haven't had that much time on it yet. My 2 cents.
That is where I am at, I have been riding 2.8 minion's on the hardtail for general xc use. And 2.6 minion's on my nomad for bigger stuff and bike parks.
 

SylentK

Turbo Monkey
Feb 25, 2004
2,287
854
coloRADo
don't forget strava, renamed to 'Garmin boost+' and marketed to mtb'ers with a 50% price increase.
LOL. Actually Strava is already a thing on the Garmin's. It can know segments and times, and give you a live KOM congrats, if applicable. Heck you can even see how far or ahead you are of the KOM or people you follow on the Strava machine.
 

manhattanprjkt83

Rusty Trombone
Jul 10, 2003
9,644
1,214
Nilbog
Is anyone else psyched for 'The Moment' to come out? I used to geek out on that stuff in the late 90's early 2000's...really psyched to see it...Wish we had more documentary style mtb films.
 

SylentK

Turbo Monkey
Feb 25, 2004
2,287
854
coloRADo
Yeti Bikes and YETI Coolers do a collaboration effort. With it, Joey Schusler makes a bikepacking video that wins all the awards. A limited edition SB-5.5 w/ YETI Tundra35 plus Rambler cup goes to market, named the SB-Tundra35plusRambler-5.5. Thus creating a bond between the "dentist outdoor enthusiast" and the "dentist mountain biker". Unknowingly, it paves the way to e-bike domination and all the robots kill everyone.
 

atrokz

Turbo Monkey
Mar 14, 2002
1,552
77
teedotohdot
2018:
Industry: will come up with more bullshit to sell and change more standards for 'progression'. SRAM will introduce wireless shifting, something nobody wants or asked for. SRAM will continue to make shitty shock and fork internals and reviewers will act like the dials do anything at all, which we all know they don't. FOX will continue it's downward spiral to make the most complicated air fork in the universe with as many seals as possible. Shimano will continue to produce product 2 years too late. Trek, Specialized, and Giant will continue with making bullshit that costs more than boutique frame makers and dentists will rejoice.

Media: will still be industry shills.
https://www.pinkbike.com/news/srams-new-dub-cranks-and-bottom-brackets-first-look.html

28.99mm.... from 30mm. One, fucking. mili. fucking. meter.

And. Here. We. Go.

SRAM off to the races! Looks like my predictions are spot on, as usual.
 

jonKranked

Detective Dookie
Nov 10, 2005
85,573
24,191
media blackout
Is anyone else psyched for 'The Moment' to come out? I used to geek out on that stuff in the late 90's early 2000's...really psyched to see it...Wish we had more documentary style mtb films.
i'd forgotten about this. but yes. yes i am. any idea when its actually gonna be available?
 
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Electric_City

Torture wrench
Apr 14, 2007
1,993
716
I can see bikes that are specifically "plus" going away. But I don't see the tire dia/wheel/rim width/tire width issue going away. As much as I wish it would from a design/mfg/geo point of view.

I have customers running 2.6/2.8/3.0's x 27.5 on my frames. Those tires need to be used in the 29er config, which, depending on the tires, usually means lower BB. but maybe you run a longer fork and it raises it up and slackens it a bit, not bad....ya, don't get me started on fork length variations

Here's some tire fun. 2.3 x 27.5, 2.6 x 27.5, 2.8 x 27.5, 2.3 x 29. The 2.3's are on 30 mm internal width, the other 2 on 35's.
View attachment 127533
What tires are the 2.6/2.8's in the pic?
 

captainspauldin

intrigued by a pole
May 14, 2007
1,263
177
Jersey Shore
I think plus sized tires will stick around. I'm talking 27.5 x 2.8 specifically, and specifically on a 29er frame (I doubt that tire would fit a 27.5 frame). The Maxxis Ikon has worked really well for me. Getting the pressure right is the key. I've even ran them at Keystone on the same DH tracks as my DH tires. Maybe it was a miracle (I pretty much know where all the rocks are). But I had a blast. I have a 2.6 minion too, but haven't had that much time on it yet. My 2 cents.
That is where I am at, I have been riding 2.8 minion's on the hardtail for general xc use. And 2.6 minion's on my nomad for bigger stuff and bike parks.
This is where I'm at also.. I'm running the 27.5 x 2.8 butcher/slaughter on my hardtail when it's messy/snow out, 29er wheels when it's not as messy. The Specialized GRID casing is much better than what came stock on my old bike (nobby nic 2.8s I think with the shitty performance casing), but also heavier. I think cheap Plus bikes (hardtails specifically) will still be good demo bikes and noob bikes to get people into MTB (they are honestly perfectly suited to the trails closest to me aka sandy and flat, the local bike shop sells a ton of them).
 

Tantrum Cycles

Turbo Monkey
Jun 29, 2016
1,143
503
What tires are the 2.6/2.8's in the pic?
the 2.6 and 2.8 are Maxxis rekon.

the 2.3's are High Roller and DHR. Which I also have coming in 2.4, 2.5, 2.6, 2.8 and 3.0 widths, both 27.5 and 29, just so I can keep on top of this shit.

What geometry do I want on my bike?? just swap tires around....

What tires do I design the geo for? .......
 

Tantrum Cycles

Turbo Monkey
Jun 29, 2016
1,143
503
You should fire those customers. :disgust1:

:p
I need their money. PLUS (see how I did that), I can see the use of different sizes for different conditions. I've tried a 2.8 fr/2.6 rr combo (27.5). While it was a bit sluggish in ideal conditions, the root isolation was excellent, with reduced hand fatigue (important to my old man hands). I still went back to my 2.3's for now, but as mentioned, I have every tire size under the sun coming. At least for 30-35 mm internal rims, nothing above 3.0, although my frames will fit larger, I just can't see myself wanting that.

I have yet to try it in the snow. I will