Quantcast

stevew

resident influencer
Sep 21, 2001
40,697
9,677
@Mo(n)arch .....all i know is next year i plan on flying into milan in the fall and doing the misty mountain hop into switzerland and back....i hope for 10 days to 2 weeks....tired of putting this trip off....
 

stevew

resident influencer
Sep 21, 2001
40,697
9,677
and the billioinaires who want to give away their money before they die......

what are they waiting for.
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,678
7,937
Capture.PNG


13.9% << 60% for herd immunity, I will remind you. (This is for the state. NYC likely a bit higher yet.)
 

kidwoo

Artisanal Tweet Curator
Last paragraph

Whatever the precise scale of the initial outbreak, that same dynamic will accelerate once measures to mitigate the spread are relaxed without other public health measures in place, Dr. Burke said. “When you take away social distancing, everything will go right through the roof,” he said.

Let's open this beyotch up! I ain't bowled in a month!
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,678
7,937
View attachment 144038

13.9% << 60% for herd immunity, I will remind you. (This is for the state. NYC likely a bit higher yet.)
Ignore the wording in this article. I think their "making up N% of the positive tests" is supposed to be "had a rate of N% test positivity".


Assuming this latter interpretation is the correct one then:

NYC 21.2% antibody test positivity (note caveat: may not be equal to actual prevalence depending on test performance)
Long Island 16.7%
Westchester/Rockland Counties 11.7%
Rest of state 3.6%
 

Mo(n)arch

Turbo Monkey
Dec 27, 2010
4,442
1,429
Italy/south Tyrol
For the euro monkies:
I have got the impression that the EU is definitely failing during this pandemic. Not on the financial side but managing the crisis on the medical side.
Blocking containers of masks and other equipment from other states is just one example (Germany and France blocked equipment for Switzerland).

I‘ve got the impression that all states try to solve the problem on national basis, which is, imo a bit silly.
Also, how is the medical approach between european states? The media suggests that each country does their own research, which seems plausible that there are still a lot of different approaches between the states. There’s obviously a lot going on behind the scenes.
I am curios, though.
 

6thElement

Schrodinger's Immigrant
Jul 29, 2008
16,216
13,502
Last paragraph

Whatever the precise scale of the initial outbreak, that same dynamic will accelerate once measures to mitigate the spread are relaxed without other public health measures in place, Dr. Burke said. “When you take away social distancing, everything will go right through the roof,” he said.

Let's open this beyotch up! I ain't bowled in a month!
I need to get the remaining hairs cut on my bald head and my nails done!
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,678
7,937
For the euro monkies:
I have got the impression that the EU is definitely failing during this pandemic. Not on the financial side but managing the crisis on the medical side.
Blocking containers of masks and other equipment from other states is just one example (Germany and France blocked equipment for Switzerland).

I‘ve got the impression that all states try to solve the problem on national basis, which is, imo a bit silly.
Also, how is the medical approach between european states? The media suggests that each country does their own research, which seems plausible that there are still a lot of different approaches between the states. There’s obviously a lot going on behind the scenes.
I am curios, though.
Relevant to Americans as well. Weak central/federal govt and states fighting amongst themselves in slow-motion chaos.
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,678
7,937
Are there models for rate of spread vs % of people con antibodies?
how close to mid-point is nyc?

R0 assumed around 2.5 for COVID.

x = 0.8 or so if antibody tests accurate (because they don't catch recently/currently infected %)

So effective infectious rate 80% of that which it'd be in perfectly naive population.
 

iRider

Turbo Monkey
Apr 5, 2008
5,654
3,101
Relevant to Americans as well. Weak central/federal govt and states fighting amongst themselves in slow-motion chaos.
Not sure if you can compare the US to the EU. Countries in the EU are independent, we do not have such a strong federal government. That is also why this doesn't work as well as it could, too much power still in the countries. In Germany the federal structure also causes some chaos, but for the important decisions it seems that they can find a consensus. Having a stronger federal government here helps with that.

Regarding medical cooperation: Germany took Covid-19 patients from France and Italy:
 

Mo(n)arch

Turbo Monkey
Dec 27, 2010
4,442
1,429
Italy/south Tyrol
Regarding medical cooperation: Germany took Covid-19 patients from France and Italy:
So did Switzerland. Don‘t get me wrong, this is great and a lot of these patients are alive and were able to go home
But this is just one layer of cooperation and considering the amount of patients in Italy and France a drop in the bucket. Good for media, if you will.
Afaik, China and Russia jumped in earlier to help out Italy with respirators and masks. Now you could argue that China owns already a lot of businesses in Italy so there is a good relationship and interest, but that is a worldwide reality, right?

Another example of poor cooperation:
A lot of ski destinations were contaminated and people knew that tons of tourists were infected. Instead of shutting these places completely off and keeping the spreeding local, tourists were sent home - and THEN the mountain towns got locked.
Result was that the virus got wide spread in Germany, Italy etc.
All states affected should have had big interest in locking these regions instead of filing class action lawsuits against these places right now.
 

Nick

My name is Nick
Sep 21, 2001
24,203
14,984
where the trails are
because of course ....
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,678
7,937
On the other hand, if average age of death is 80 or so how many quality adjusted years of life are being taken away? Hmm
 

6thElement

Schrodinger's Immigrant
Jul 29, 2008
16,216
13,502

iRider

Turbo Monkey
Apr 5, 2008
5,654
3,101
So did Switzerland. Don‘t get me wrong, this is great and a lot of these patients are alive and were able to go home
But this is just one layer of cooperation and considering the amount of patients in Italy and France a drop in the bucket. Good for media, if you will.
As far as I know they did calculations of available capacity considering the way the pandemic developed in Germany. Last thing you want to do is fill your ICUs with patients from Italy and then do not have enough capacity for the locals. So not purely a PR stunt.

Afaik, China and Russia jumped in earlier to help out Italy with respirators and masks. Now you could argue that China owns already a lot of businesses in Italy so there is a good relationship and interest, but that is a worldwide reality, right?
Bro, they are behind all this to damage our societies and take away our companies and wives! :tinfoil:

Another example of poor cooperation:
A lot of ski destinations were contaminated and people knew that tons of tourists were infected. Instead of shutting these places completely off and keeping the spreeding local, tourists were sent home - and THEN the mountain towns got locked.
Result was that the virus got wide spread in Germany, Italy etc.
All states affected should have had big interest in locking these regions instead of filing class action lawsuits against these places right now.
Yep, but can you imagined the shitstorm if Ischgl had been closed down because "just one barkeeper was sick of the flu"? Businesses and tourist alike would have been mad like hell. I see this as a failure of local authorities and not an EU level thing.

More worrisome is that countries like Italy now trying to use this as an opportunity to sneak in Eurobonds. Guilt tripping other countries with "we want your solidarity because EU" when previously the government was blaming the EU for everything that went wrong and leaving the impression with their voters that the EU is not good for Italy. Asking for solidarity just when you need money is not how this works.
 

iRider

Turbo Monkey
Apr 5, 2008
5,654
3,101
if antibodies disappear from a person's system after two weeks, that would mean someone could be reinfected over and over and over ....


GREAT!
Could be a sensitivity of the test issue though. Immune response might not disappear, just the test is not sensitive enough.