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Home Price Drop Is Largest in 35 Years

jimmydean

The Official Meat of Ridemonkey
Sep 10, 2001
41,181
13,336
Portland, OR
Home Price Drop Is Largest in 35 Years

Oct 26, 11:16 AM (ET)

By MARTIN CRUTSINGER

WASHINGTON (AP) - The median price of a new home plunged in September by the largest amount in more than 35 years, even as the pace of sales rebounded for a second month.

The Commerce Department reported that the median price for a new home sold in September was $217,100, a drop of 9.7 percent from September 2005. It was the lowest median price for a new home since September 2004 and the sharpest year-over-year decline since December 1970. The weakness in new home prices was even sharper than a 2.5 percent fall in the price of existing homes last month, which had been the biggest drop on record.

The price decline for new homes came while the sales pace picked up, rising by 5.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate 1.075 million homes. It marked the second consecutive increase in sales following three months of declines.

The declines in prices served to underscore the severity of the correction in the once-booming housing market, which had seen sales of both new and existing homes soar to record levels for five consecutive years, propelled by the lowest mortgage rates in more than four decades.

This year, with mortgage rates rising through midsummer, sales have cooled considerably, with housing expected to trim more than a percentage point from overall growth in the last half of the year.

The debate is whether the slowdown will be enough to push the country into an outright recession. The Federal Reserve, recognizing the weakness in housing, halted a two-year string of interest rate increases in August and left rates unchanged for a third straight meeting on Wednesday.

The Fed, however, gave no indication that it planned to start cutting rates because of the weakness in housing, saying it was still concerned that inflation remained too high.

The 5.3 percent rise in new home sales in September followed a 3.8 percent rise in August and was the biggest one-month gain since an 8 percent increase in March. However, sales had fallen for three straight months from May through July.

The rise in sales last month was led by a 23.9 percent jump in the West. Sales were also up 6.9 percent in the South. However, sales fell by 34.5 percent in the Northeast and were down 6.3 percent in the Midwest.

In other economic news, the government said that orders to U.S. factories for big-ticket manufactured goods, powered by a huge jump in demand for commercial jetliners, soared in September by the largest amount in more than six years.

The Commerce Department reported that orders for durable goods rose by 7.8 percent last month to $226.7 billion. The increase followed two consecutive months of declines and was the biggest gain since June 2000.

The improvement was more than triple the 2.3 percent gain that Wall Street had been expecting, but virtually all of the strength came from a giant 183.2 percent increase in orders for commercial aircraft. Outside of transportation, orders were up a far weaker 0.1 percent.

In a third report, the Labor Department said the number of newly laid off workers filing claims for unemployment benefits rose by 8,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 308,000. That increase was in line with expectations.

The September 7.8 percent increase in factory orders followed declines of 0.1 percent in August and 2.8 percent in July. Despite last month's jump, analysts believe that the factory sector is slowing under the impact of a weakening overall economy.

The economy began the year with growth at a sizzling pace of 5.6 percent at an annual rate but saw that slow to 2.6 percent in the spring and analysts believe overall economic growth in the just-completed July-September quarter slowed even further to around 2 percent or less. The government will report the actual third quarter figure on Friday.

For September, transportation orders rose by 27.6 percent as the big jump in demand for commercial aircraft offset a 6.1 percent drop in orders to automakers, who have been struggling recently under the impact of weak sales of trucks and sport utility vehicles.

The rise in commercial airplane orders had been expected, given that Boeing Co. (BA) booked new orders for 175 planes, up from 30 in the prior month.
 

N8 v2.0

Not the sharpest tool in the shed
Oct 18, 2002
11,003
149
The Cleft of Venus
we didn't see the rapid rise in property values here locally and we haven't seen them decrease.. in fact they continue to rise.

demand for new home in the 'reasonable' range ($160k - $225k) is still very strong.
 

jimmydean

The Official Meat of Ridemonkey
Sep 10, 2001
41,181
13,336
Portland, OR
we didn't see the rapid rise in property values here locally and we haven't seen them decrease.. in fact they continue to rise.

demand for new home in the 'reasonable' range ($160k - $225k) is still very strong.
Wow, you can't get a condo here for that range (900 sqft is the average at $230+). But there are a ton of houses that have been done for nearly a year that sit empty on the other side of town from me. There are also hundreds of new condos for $250+ that have been empty for over a year on my way to work.
 

N8 v2.0

Not the sharpest tool in the shed
Oct 18, 2002
11,003
149
The Cleft of Venus
Wow, you can't get a condo here for that range (900 sqft is the average at $230+). But there are a ton of houses that have been done for nearly a year that sit empty on the other side of town from me. There are also hundreds of new condos for $250+ that have been empty for over a year on my way to work.
It's good to be in a market that hasn't been over built by national building companies.
 

reflux

Turbo Monkey
Mar 18, 2002
4,617
2
G14 Classified
I'm curious to see how the National Realtors Association will spin this news to the positive. It should be interesting.

N8: well said.
 

binary visions

The voice of reason
Jun 13, 2002
22,100
1,149
NC
The market here seems to be good. All but the most run down houses are getting turned over like crazy. When we were shopping, we ran into a number of houses that looked nice but had contracts on them before we even got to look at them - and they had only been on the market for a matter of days.

The subdivision we built in had 6 lots and two houses for sale when we first found it. When we bought our lot 4 or 5 days later it had 4 lots and 1 house. Two weeks after that everything was sold.

You can get a heck of a lot of house for the money around here, though, our 1300 sq. ft. place on 2 acres is running a paltry $130k.
 

narlus

Eastcoast Softcore
Staff member
Nov 7, 2001
24,658
63
behind the viewfinder
the housing market continues to get pounded in the Northeast. wait it out a few more months and it'll be a good time to get back into the market.
 

dan-o

Turbo Monkey
Jun 30, 2004
6,499
2,805
the housing market continues to get pounded in the Northeast. wait it out a few more months and it'll be a good time to get back into the market.
I was talking to my buddy who's flipping a house right now about this. He was saying that sales and inventory are about the same as last year, ie. not bad.

What is really changing is pricing. More specifically, market price versus what people expect their house is worth. Most sellers have an inflated concept of their equity, based on the boom market, and those which are greedy (due to being overleveraged or wanting to step up) are the ones whose houses are sitting.

IMO there is simply too much demand in the NE for prices to drop too far. What is dropping is the rate of appreciation, not the home values. People waiting for insane deals will continue to be renters.
 

narlus

Eastcoast Softcore
Staff member
Nov 7, 2001
24,658
63
behind the viewfinder
IMO there is simply too much demand in the NE for prices to drop too far. What is dropping is the rate of appreciation, not the home values. People waiting for insane deals will continue to be renters.
not sure about that...there are a lot of houses still on the market, and the unsold inventory is still climbing. on my commute into work, there's a huge house which has probably been on the market for almost a year, has had 'SOLD' on its sign at least 3 times, only to have it fall apart at the last minute and go back on the market.
 

Echo

crooked smile
Jul 10, 2002
11,819
15
Slacking at work
Crasby's projects are not the type that are affected much by a fluctuation in housing prices. If anything this helps guys like him.
 

dan-o

Turbo Monkey
Jun 30, 2004
6,499
2,805
not sure about that...there are a lot of houses still on the market, and the unsold inventory is still climbing. on my commute into work, there's a huge house which has probably been on the market for almost a year, has had 'SOLD' on its sign at least 3 times, only to have it fall apart at the last minute and go back on the market.
There are so many variables that could cause that. Contingencies by the buyers/sellers are really common right now and BS pricing on either end of that will kill a deal pretty easily.

McMansions are sitting right now. I have a customer whose $1.5m house at andover CC has been sitting empty for 6mo. Thankfully her realtor keeps dumping money in my account for 'updating'. (the place is mint)
 

blue

boob hater
Jan 24, 2004
10,160
2
california
Home prices here keep skyrocketing...This summer they went through the roof. You can't find jack in my neighborhood under $500k, most decent stuff is around a million.
 

reflux

Turbo Monkey
Mar 18, 2002
4,617
2
G14 Classified
Home prices here keep skyrocketing...This summer they went through the roof. You can't find jack in my neighborhood under $500k, most decent stuff is around a million.
Werd? A very good friend of mine is moving to Salt Lake within the next few months for a job. He won't be liking that news at all.

The Orange County market, as crazy as it's been for the past 6 years, is starting to show signs of slowing again. Although it would be hard to imagine the price of condos to rapidly appreciate beyond their current $400k prices...
 

ohio

The Fresno Kid
Nov 26, 2001
6,649
24
SF, CA
Dood, everyone knows that the housing market won't crash while conservatives are in power. This crash that just happened actually occurs in a month, after our approaching political referendum.
 

blue

boob hater
Jan 24, 2004
10,160
2
california
Werd? A very good friend of mine is moving to Salt Lake within the next few months for a job. He won't be liking that news at all.
Suburbia is cheaper...depending on where you want to live in the valley. He concerned about mountains/etc?
 

llkoolkeg

Ranger LL
Sep 5, 2001
4,329
5
in da shed, mon, in da shed
When we moved into our neighborhood three years ago, the average house went for low 200s and there was only one to choose from. Three years later, the houses average in the low 300s but there are probably 15 to choose from, including 3 on my street alone. They just aren't getting looks much less sales. My in-laws had to drop the price on their McLean condo by 50K before they sold it last month, all the while having to pay two mortgages. It really sucks.