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More real estate doom and gloom

Westy

the teste
Nov 22, 2002
54,232
20,015
Sleazattle
With possible home ownership pending I started looking at my overall financial situation. If Trump’s dumb plan to compress income brackets actually happens, my tax rate could increase significantly. Reducing my taxable income through fat ass mostly interest mortgage payments roughly equivalent to my rent would save me significant amounts of money. Of course I have no idea what these idiots will actually do, they might just remove the middle man and let me pay tribute directly to corporations.
 

Westy

the teste
Nov 22, 2002
54,232
20,015
Sleazattle
Real estate is pure insanity in Seattle right now.

A house I made an offer on a few weeks ago had over 20 offers and finally sold for 25% over asking. I assume it was a cash offer as it closed in less than a week. Was probably purchased by a builder and will be bulldozed as I estimated it needed $30k in repairs, and that was DIY price.

Another house in tear down condition just went for $600K, it was sold just three months ago for only $450K.

I am happy to have a place under contract if for no other reason than to be done with this. It is fucking nuts right now. I made offers on 4 different houses. With the exception of the one I am under contract on, all had more than 10 buyers and went for more than $100k over list in cash. My place had 7 offers and was obtainable only because of the very small size and pretty much excluded developers and buyers with or wanting children.

I fear it is a bubble but dozens of people are showing up with suitcases full of cash. These aren't schmucks buying second investment homes with interest only loans. No idea where the money is coming from, possibly Chinese investors excluded from the Vancouver market, possible Silicon Valley transplants. I suspect there are a lot of people getting money from baby boomer parents/grandparents who have a surplus of retirement funds. I do not have that problem.

A 23 year old kid I work with recently bought a $650K house. He looked at me funny when I asked him about his interest rate, his parents layed out cash for the house.
 

jimmydean

The Official Meat of Ridemonkey
Sep 10, 2001
40,939
13,133
Portland, OR
Portland isn't too far off, they are running out of areas to gentrify. Here it is folks from California that sold their place for $850k+.

It blows me away to see the cost of living here go from $30k to $300k in 20 years.
 

Westy

the teste
Nov 22, 2002
54,232
20,015
Sleazattle
Portland isn't too far off, they are running out of areas to gentrify. Here it is folks from California that sold their place for $850k+.

It blows me away to see the cost of living here go from $30k to $300k in 20 years.
Sone old guy came up to me during an open house. Was bitching about rich people moving into his neighborhood driving up prices. Claimed he was going to move to get away from it. Told him that he would then be the rich asshole moving into another neighborhood after he sold his home for 1000% profit. The idea made him smile.
 

mandown

Poopdeck Repost
Jun 1, 2004
20,128
7,679
Transylvania 90210
Real estate is pure insanity in Seattle right now.

I fear it is a bubble but dozens of people are showing up with suitcases full of cash. These aren't schmucks buying second investment homes with interest only loans. No idea where the money is coming from, possibly Chinese investors excluded from the Vancouver market, possible Silicon Valley transplants. I suspect there are a lot of people getting money from baby boomer parents/grandparents who have a surplus of retirement funds. I do not have that problem.

A 23 year old kid I work with recently bought a $650K house. He looked at me funny when I asked him about his interest rate, his parents layed out cash for the house.

image.jpeg
 

jimmydean

The Official Meat of Ridemonkey
Sep 10, 2001
40,939
13,133
Portland, OR
Top 3 states for getting screwed on a new place.

Colorado
9.1% increase in home prices

The number of home sales in Colorado slipped 3.1 percent in February from the previous year, while year-to-date sales volume is up by 2.7 percent. The number of sales under contract increased 10.4 percent year over year.

Oregon
10.3% increase in home prices
Home sales in Oregon’s largest city, Portland, are showing some signs of cooling off. Pending sales, while stronger than in December, fell 11.3 percent from January 2016. Closed sales dipped by 0.6 percent year over year, but dropped off by 29.5 percent versus December.

Washington
10.8% increase in home prices
Pending sales of homes in Northwest Washington state fell for the first time since March 2016, declining 8.9 percent in February, largely due to a lack of inventory. The number of active listings during the month hit the lowest level since 2004.
 

jimmydean

The Official Meat of Ridemonkey
Sep 10, 2001
40,939
13,133
Portland, OR
I've been super tempted to try and time the market. I'd put the house up and rent for a year, but the way my luck works, I'd be guaranteeing an unprecedented 5-10 year spike in southern CO house prices.
Bought my first house in '99 with home prices on the rise. House was $125k when I first looked at it, 6 months later it was $155k and I bought it. After 3 years, it was worth barely $130k and I lost my ass.

My second house I thought I had timed it right, sold for $235k in '06, I bought it in '09 for $175k, couldn't sell it to save my life because of the HOA dues, lost my ass again.

Our house now the wife bought in '06 and it has been under water until last year. But the way prices are going, even if we sold it and made a buck, it's still less than $300k and there really isn't anything much closer for less than that at half the size.

At this rate we are staying put and sucking it up.
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,031
7,549
http://www.bizjournals.com/denver/news/2017/03/27/in-denver-homes-are-flying-off-the-shelves.html

In Denver, homes are 'flying off the shelves'

Homes in Denver are selling so fast after they hit the market, one real estate valuation company says they're "flying off the shelves."

Only homes in Lincoln, Nebraska, are selling faster, with homes in both markets averaging less than two weeks on the market, which is a month faster than the national rate, according to research conducted by California-based Clear Capital.

Clear Capital's findings echo what other real estate companies are reporting about the Denver home market: Redfin research says half of all Denver homes pending sale in just 18 days, trailing only Seattle (12 days) and Oakland (15 days) in the country; and research conducted by Colorado-based Re/Max Holdings Inc.
 

jimmydean

The Official Meat of Ridemonkey
Sep 10, 2001
40,939
13,133
Portland, OR
http://www.bizjournals.com/denver/news/2017/03/27/in-denver-homes-are-flying-off-the-shelves.html

In Denver, homes are 'flying off the shelves'

Homes in Denver are selling so fast after they hit the market, one real estate valuation company says they're "flying off the shelves."

Only homes in Lincoln, Nebraska, are selling faster, with homes in both markets averaging less than two weeks on the market, which is a month faster than the national rate, according to research conducted by California-based Clear Capital.

Clear Capital's findings echo what other real estate companies are reporting about the Denver home market: Redfin research says half of all Denver homes pending sale in just 18 days, trailing only Seattle (12 days) and Oakland (15 days) in the country; and research conducted by Colorado-based Re/Max Holdings Inc.
At $1M each, I could see why. :twitch:
 

stoney

Part of the unwashed, middle-American horde
Jul 26, 2006
21,517
7,064
Colorado
I have friends that moved out here about six months ago; they probably make $500+ per year combined. They were putting in $1mm cash offers for in need of work TIC's in SF and getting out bid same day. They figured out that it was more cost effective to move here (Backcountry in Highlands Ranch), buy a $900k house (mostly cash), then travel every other week back to SF for work. That sets them up for better schools than they could have ever gotten from public in SF (the SF private schools are $45k/year). It's insane.
 

jstuhlman

bagpipe wanker
Dec 3, 2009
16,623
12,915
Cackalacka du Nord
what a bunch of crap. i love where i live and for a fraction of those salaries (and a sense of what is needed versus keeping up with the asshole capitalists) can have good schools, year round riding, and can consider adding something like this (lowball offer, of course-5 mins from blue ride parkway; close to great mtn. riding; 15 from larger mtn. communities). https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/4949-Edgemont-Rd-Collettsville-NC-28611/2098734184_zpid/
 

SkaredShtles

Michael Bolton
Sep 21, 2003
65,376
12,532
In a van.... down by the river
what a bunch of crap. i love where i live and for a fraction of those salaries (and a sense of what is needed versus keeping up with the asshole capitalists) can have good schools, year round riding, and can consider adding something like this (lowball offer, of course-5 mins from blue ride parkway; close to great mtn. riding; 15 from larger mtn. communities). https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/4949-Edgemont-Rd-Collettsville-NC-28611/2098734184_zpid/
Dude - you can't encourage people... 'cause they'll eventually fuck it up. Don't ask me how I know this. :mad:
 

Pesqueeb

bicycle in airplane hangar
Feb 2, 2007
40,138
16,537
Riding the baggage carousel.
I heard an ad on the radio yesterday for some local realtor, practically begging people to put their homes up for sale so her clients could buy them. It was weird. Housing is full retard again, I'm tempted to sell and try to ride it out in a van down by the river for the next crash
 

SkaredShtles

Michael Bolton
Sep 21, 2003
65,376
12,532
In a van.... down by the river
I heard an ad on the radio yesterday for some local realtor, practically begging people to put their homes up for sale so her clients could buy them. It was weird. Housing is full retard again, I'm tempted to sell and try to ride it out in a van down by the river for the next crash
Don't do it, man... although a nice van by the river is rather tempting.
 

jimmydean

The Official Meat of Ridemonkey
Sep 10, 2001
40,939
13,133
Portland, OR
I heard an ad on the radio yesterday for some local realtor, practically begging people to put their homes up for sale so her clients could buy them. It was weird. Housing is full retard again, I'm tempted to sell and try to ride it out in a van down by the river for the next crash
:stupid:

The neighbors place sold for $309k (ours was $265k in '06) and was on the market for about a month after they moved out (she smoked in the house, so there were no offers while they lived there). The wife and I keep talking about selling our place, buying a trailer and live in a park until the pop, then get us the place we want in SE. :panic:
 

stoney

Part of the unwashed, middle-American horde
Jul 26, 2006
21,517
7,064
Colorado
I heard an ad on the radio yesterday for some local realtor, practically begging people to put their homes up for sale so her clients could buy them. It was weird. Housing is full retard again, I'm tempted to sell and try to ride it out in a van down by the river for the next crash
I was talking with Wifey about this when we were looking at a new house. It was in our best interest to sell the house so we had cash available when it came time to buy. We put in a few offers (that thankfully didn't get accepted) and a bunch were immediately rejected as others were cash offers or non-contingent. The idea of a contingent sale here right now is blasphemy. I figure that a rental will cost us maybe an additional $1k/m until we find something. If we can get a premium for the house, then that works to our favor.
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,031
7,549
The idea of a contingent sale here right now is blasphemy.
That's why in my Seattle plans the ability to shack up in the MIL's house cheaply (and thus choose to sell here in Denver at our convenience/for tax rules) is absolutely key.
 

jimmydean

The Official Meat of Ridemonkey
Sep 10, 2001
40,939
13,133
Portland, OR
I was talking with Wifey about this when we were looking at a new house. It was in our best interest to sell the house so we had cash available when it came time to buy. We put in a few offers (that thankfully didn't get accepted) and a bunch were immediately rejected as others were cash offers or non-contingent. The idea of a contingent sale here right now is blasphemy. I figure that a rental will cost us maybe an additional $1k/m until we find something. If we can get a premium for the house, then that works to our favor.
The guy who bought the neighbors house is a cash offer and he is moving in on the 1st and renting until close at $2k/month. It's an interesting deal, but he was asking way more than we thought he would get.

Corner house sold a year ago this month for $285k, zombie house flipped for $275k 6 month before that (either sides of ours), now Bob's at $309k (across the street), that's just crazy. He bought his house in '02 for $215k.
 

Westy

the teste
Nov 22, 2002
54,232
20,015
Sleazattle
I was talking with Wifey about this when we were looking at a new house. It was in our best interest to sell the house so we had cash available when it came time to buy. We put in a few offers (that thankfully didn't get accepted) and a bunch were immediately rejected as others were cash offers or non-contingent. The idea of a contingent sale here right now is blasphemy. I figure that a rental will cost us maybe an additional $1k/m until we find something. If we can get a premium for the house, then that works to our favor.
Someone offered $25k more than I did on my house but did not release financing contingencies. They even offered a non refundable $10k, locally known as the Ballard Bribe. Seller decided to sell to me at the lower price as I had released everything.