[Sandwich]

can anyone tell me why they think that Bernie sanders would have won the election? I hear a lot of people talk about how the dems just weren't progressive enough, but it seems to me that trump's win was more due to progressive laws (like the ACA) damaging small businesses and rural centers. I keep hearing how this is all the DNC's fault, or blaming race- or sexism, yet most of the intelligent posts on the subject are how the people who voted for Trump feel that many of Obamas policies weren't helping them.

So what gives? Are there any statistical analyses done that show that dems were turned off by Hillary rather than turned off by progressive values?

 

[Toshi]

Because Bernie was +13 on Hillary in the Wisconsin primary, with similar findings in other rust belt states. Hillary ran up the delegate count in the South, either in states that the Democrats could never carry or that would be carried nonetheless.

Where it counted Bernie seemed to have the advantage, and the DNC ignored this in their march to coronation.

 

[Jm_]

Because he and Trump were anti-establishment. Clinton was establishment with crazy baggage.

 

[Sandwich]

Because Bernie was +13 on Hillary in the Wisconsin primary, with similar findings in other rust belt states. Hillary ran up the delegate count in the South, either in states that the Democrats could never carry or that would be carried nonetheless.

Where it counted Bernie seemed to have the advantage, and the DNC ignored this in their march to coronation.

Sure, but in states like Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia, Hilary won. And Ohio. And by a reasonable margin.

So by your logic, you would simply swap victors and say that Bernie had an even worse chance in any of those states, but would have a better chance in Wisconsin?

Hilary also carried the black vote regularly, including in Michigan. Would Bernie have won the state without the support of Detroit?

I think it's pretty safe to say that there are holes in the argument.

 

[Toshi]

He might have convinced them, especially as the nominee. He certainly had less (essentially no) negative baggage.

 

[Pesqueeb]

Sure, but in states like Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia, Hilary won. And Ohio. And by a reasonable margin.

So by your logic, you would simply swap victors and say that Bernie had an even worse chance in any of those states, but would have a better chance in Wisconsin?

Hilary also carried the black vote regularly, including in Michigan. Would Bernie have won the state without the support of Detroit?

I think it's pretty safe to say that there are holes in the argument.

But Bernie beat her in all the rust belt states in the primaries. States that Hillary either barley lost in, or won. Hillary lost Florida, Michigan and Wisconsin by 1%, North Carolina by 4% to Trump*. I suspect Bernie would have done so much better there. These were white voters concerned with rising inequality and the idea that the economy was not working for them, the same voters who used Trump as a vehicle for a protest vote. Hillary was a vote for more of the same old establishment bullshit that wasn't working for them so of course they didn't vote for her. Did Bernie have enough of a draw to grab more than 1% of those votes. Maybe. He'd already beat her there once.

You also seem to think Bernie wouldn't get the black vote. Why not? I'll give you that the Sanders campaign did a horrible job with the African American community during the run up, and it fucking kills me given his record on race issues. Perhaps this might have changed had he been the democratic candidate, but I have a hard time believing that, either way, Hillary's "black vote" would have either gone trump or just stayed home.

Bernie out preformed Hillary in many of the swing states she lost. Maybe he still would have lost, but it might have been a lot closer. Plus Bernie didn't suffer for the "enthusiasm gap" that Clinton did. I'd have shipped my Bernie ballot off the day I got it with a smile on my face, instead of it lingering on the table in the living room and getting good and drunk before filling it out a week later. It's anecdotal I know, but among my more liberal friends the feeling was definitely the same. I don't know anyone who was excited and enthusiastic about her. What it became was just "not trump". It's hard to rally people to that.


*For you @N8 v2.0

https://www.google.com/search?q=2016+election+map&oq=2016+election+map&aqs=chrome..69i57.3687j0j1&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8#eob=enn/p//1/0///////////

http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/national-results-map

 

[Toshi]

I knew lots of people all excited for her. All white women. I'm not a white woman and ultimately Trump got 53% of that group, of which my Harvard educated friends are admittedly a non-representative subset.

 

[StiHacka]

This time period will once be remember for the rise of tribalism in America.

 

[johnbryanpeters]

This time period will once be remember for the rise of tribalism in America.

American Nations: A History of the Eleven Rival Regional Cultures of North America

 

[Pesqueeb]

American Nations: A History of the Eleven Rival Regional Cultures of North America

Or, you know, the actual American tribes. They were pretty tribal too.......

 

[stevew]

you know what i remember from the primaries...bernie drawing 10-15000 at a rally....hillary 500....

 

[AngryMetalsmith]

I agree with @Pesqueeb that Hillary began to rely on the "not Trump" vote and subsequent waning enthusiasm. Maybe it's a generational difference, but I paid attention in world history class. So for me it was easy to vote against Trump, but the short attention span set, not so much.

 

[AngryMetalsmith]

There's video or audio of a moment when Trump says that he hoped Bernie didn't get the nomination because he didn't think he could beat him.

 

[Jm_]

I agree with @Pesqueeb that Hillary began to rely on the "not Trump" vote and subsequent waning enthusiasm. Maybe it's a generational difference, but I paid attention in world history class. So for me it was easy to vote against Trump, but the short attention span set, not so much.

The additional emails that the FBI already had thing was timed perfectly to sway public opinion without enough time left for it to wane. If the Hillary campaign was smart, they would have held the pussy grab as an ace in their pocket and released it immediately after. Would have been a sure shot at that point IMO.

 

[StiHacka]

American Nations: A History of the Eleven Rival Regional Cultures of North America

I was kinda expecting this, and you are right. What better word to use: clans, classes, clubs?

 

[JohnE]

Bernie energized and excited crowds of optimistic and forward thinking young AND old people...she just brought more of the same, and all the crazy baggage...thats why he would have beaten Trump.

 

[N8 v2.0]

Bernie energized and excited crowds of optimistic and forward thinking young AND old people...she just brought more of the same, and all the crazy baggage...thats why he would have beaten Trump.

I think so too. Hillary's support base would have voted for him, if he'd been allowed to win the primary fair & square.

He was tapped into the same energy source that Trump was able to exploit against Hillary.

I think he'd have attracted a large number of those voting for Johnson and other fring parties.

Maybe this election will be a catalyst that breaks up the monopoly of our broken two-team system of the National Political League and open the door to some expansion teams. I think if the US had 5-6 strong parties it would be a good thing. It would force a coalition to compromise and negotiate with other political views in order to get a majority.

Plus, having a Pirate Party would be alrrrrrright.

 

[Pesqueeb]

Plus, having a Pirate Party would be alrrrrrright.

Booooooooooo!!!!!!!

 

[johnbryanpeters]

I was kinda expecting this, and you are right. What better word to use: clans, classes, clubs?

I don't know a better word; I don't think much has changed regarding the nations, but their mindsets are being more openly expressed. Times are more than dangerous.

I think so too. Hillary's support base would have voted for him, if he'd been allowed to win the primary fair & square. Yes

He was tapped into the same energy source that Trump was able to exploit against Hillary. Yes

I think he'd have attracted a large number of those voting for Johnson and other fring parties. Not sure

Maybe this election will be a catalyst that breaks up the monopoly of our broken two-team system of the National Political League and open the door to some expansion teams. I think if the US had 5-6 strong parties it would be a good thing. It would force a coalition to compromise and negotiate with other political views in order to get a majority. Hoping, but not holding my breath

Plus, having a Pirate Party would be alrrrrrright. yerp

 

[JohnE]

JMJ...there I go agreeing with N8 again...what is happening????

 

[JohnE]

Plus, having a Pirate Party would be alrrrrrright.

Already got one...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Pirate_Party

 

[Pesqueeb]

Already got one...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Pirate_Party

Have you been here long enough to vote on a CO ballot? The number of "WTF?" and "LULZ" parties on the ballot for president made me think CO needs to raise the bar a bit on presidential ballot access.

Edit: https://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_election_in_Colorado,_2016

My favorites were "Kotlikoff for President" and "Nutrition"

 

[JohnE]

Yep, voted last week. Started googling the names of dudes I hadnt heard about...didnt get down the whole list as they just started getting, uhh...interesting.

I will probably write in Kinky Friedman for the next election.

 

[Jim Mac]

"The economic and political divides result from massive institutional failures. As the rate of institutional and systemic failure increases, we see citizens and leaders respond in one of the following three ways:

1. Muddling through: same old, same old.

2. Moving back: let’s build a wall between us and them.

3. Moving forward: lean in to what wants to emerge—empathize and build architectures of collaboration rather than architectures of separation.

What was the problem in this election? Hillary was the muddler; Donald was the wall builder. But there was no one in the third category"

Bernie would have most likely represented #3.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/on-the-making-of-trumpthe-blind-spot-that-created_us_58264d03e4b02b1f5257a1ca?timestamp=1478908400601

 

[stevew]

if bernie doesn't die before 2020 and he's feeling frisky enough to run again i imagine the dnc will have him put a "d" in front of his name the next go round...

 

[N8 v2.0]

if bernie doesn't die before 2020 and he's feeling frisky enough to run again i imagine the dnc will have him put a "d" in front of his name the next go round...

He'll have to get past Michelle Obama & Hillary Jr first.

 

[StiHacka]

He'll have to get past Michelle Obama & Hillary Jr first.

 

[Sandwich]

"The economic and political divides result from massive institutional failures. As the rate of institutional and systemic failure increases, we see citizens and leaders respond in one of the following three ways:

1. Muddling through: same old, same old.

2. Moving back: let’s build a wall between us and them.

3. Moving forward: lean in to what wants to emerge—empathize and build architectures of collaboration rather than architectures of separation.

What was the problem in this election? Hillary was the muddler; Donald was the wall builder. But there was no one in the third category"

Bernie would have most likely represented #3.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/on-the-making-of-trumpthe-blind-spot-that-created_us_58264d03e4b02b1f5257a1ca?timestamp=1478908400601

bernie, the guy who wanted to "Shut down the big banks" with little more than that sound bite for evidence, was the moving forwarder? interesting.

also, bonus points for huffington post managing to throw "lean in" into the conversation.

 

[jonKranked]

Sandwich, one thing Bernie had going for him is that he was good at reaching out to the working class. He managed to get elected (and re elected) in Vermont, which sounds all hippie dippie but has a large segment of farming population. he was able to appeal to them there, he could appeal to other working class populations in other states.

 

[stevew]

He'll have to get past Michelle Obama & Hillary Jr first.

whatever wizard ends up heading the dnc....no more clintons.

 

[jonKranked]

whatever wizard ends up heading the dnc....no more clintons.

we can hope

 

[JohnE]

"The economic and political divides result from massive institutional failures. As the rate of institutional and systemic failure increases, we see citizens and leaders respond in one of the following three ways:

1. Muddling through: same old, same old.

2. Moving back: let’s build a wall between us and them.

3. Moving forward: lean in to what wants to emerge—empathize and build architectures of collaboration rather than architectures of separation.

What was the problem in this election? Hillary was the muddler; Donald was the wall builder. But there was no one in the third category"

Bernie would have most likely represented #3.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/on-the-making-of-trumpthe-blind-spot-that-created_us_58264d03e4b02b1f5257a1ca?timestamp=1478908400601

Truth. And the take away here is that it is much much easier to muddle through or build a wall than it is to lean forward in the harness and move forward. Simply because of the fear of the unknown that may be revealed.

 

[JohnE]

whatever wizard ends up heading the dnc....no more clintons.

If they do not learn from this years debacle, I will start my own political party.

 

[Sandwich]

Sandwich, one thing Bernie had going for him is that he was good at reaching out to the working class. He managed to get elected (and re elected) in Vermont, which sounds all hippie dippie but has a large segment of farming population. he was able to appeal to them there, he could appeal to other working class populations in other states.

bernie certainly had an appeal, and his was different than clinton's, no doubt. he had staying power, but I still haven't heard a convincing argument besides he won some states or that young white people really liked him.

I suppose at some point people will finish dissecting the election to try and find out why people in states like NC, wisconsin, and PA voted for trump rather than clinton. I just have a hard time believing that it was a hilary vs. bernie thing and not a democrat/progressive thing vs. republican/complete insanity thing

 

[Jm_]

bernie certainly had an appeal, and his was different than clinton's, no doubt. he had staying power, but I still haven't heard a convincing argument besides he won some states or that young white people really liked him.

I suppose at some point people will finish dissecting the election to try and find out why people in states like NC, wisconsin, and PA voted for trump rather than clinton. I just have a hard time believing that it was a hilary vs. bernie thing and not a democrat/progressive thing vs. republican/complete insanity thing

I think the two main types of people voting in this election were:

Anyone but The Donald.

Anyone but Hillary.

 

[johnbryanpeters]

bernie certainly had an appeal, and his was different than clinton's, no doubt. he had staying power, but I still haven't heard a convincing argument besides he won some states or that young white people really liked him.

I suppose at some point people will finish dissecting the election to try and find out why people in states like NC, wisconsin, and PA voted for trump rather than clinton. I just have a hard time believing that it was a hilary vs. bernie thing and not a democrat/progressive thing vs. republican/complete insanity thing

It's a very simple thing. Neither major party has been effectively serving the people for a long time now. Many people across the political spectrum are simply fed up. Bern and Ill Douche both offered to try to bust up the status quo. Mr Sanders is a decent man with a strong record of accomplishment and would have defeated Mr. Trump handily.

 

[Jim Mac]

bernie, the guy who wanted to "Shut down the big banks" with little more than that sound bite for evidence, was the moving forwarder? interesting.

also, bonus points for huffington post managing to throw "lean in" into the conversation.

Side note: it's less about Huff post than it is the author Otto Sharmer. We actually use a lot of his Theory U stuff at my jorb.