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Paris-Roubaix: Who is going to win?

sanjuro

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Sep 13, 2004
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I got to go with my man Boonen. Hasn't had a dominant Classics season, maybe he shows up tomorrow.
 

ire

Turbo Monkey
Aug 6, 2007
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I think Fabian Cancellara has a good shot. He won the Milan-San Remo in impressive fashion, so hes on form. Plus he's won this race before. Does anyone know if Versus has it on, I checked the schedule and it didn't look like it
 

OGRipper

back alley ripper
Feb 3, 2004
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I think Fabian Cancellara has a good shot. He won the Milan-San Remo in impressive fashion, so hes on form. Plus he's won this race before. Does anyone know if Versus has it on, I checked the schedule and it didn't look like it
I just asked the same question in the PR photo thread, can't find it either.

Cancellara is definitely a favorite. I think many big guns have started to catch up to Fabian's form since MSR, but still, he's so strong in this event and should be up there.

I'd like to see Bettini get a rock. He's so small he must get tossed around pretty good, but still.

Really, what I love about this race is that it is such a combination of different factors (including a large dose of luck/chance) that even the favorites are no lock.
 

James

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Sep 11, 2001
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I think that this is probably Hincapie's last year with any real shot, and this is probably the first time he's had a real team built around him winning, so he's got a great shot.
I would love to see him win it, he's been a bridesmaid so many times in this race...

That said, it's also CSC's race to lose, they've been so dominant the last couple of years.
 
Well, it seems Boonen has a way of blowing it when it really matters, a lot of the time. Yeah, he's won a bunch, but some of these major classics he's just fallen flat..
I'd like to see Big G. do a good ride, but he'll never win anything that big. (I've got my reasons for this line of thinking....)
Cancellara has got to be a serious threat, so much power and obviously on form...although h ecould have peaked too soon? And it's also going to be a rainy/snowy/fricken cold day again and Fabian can hold his own in the bad weather.
Bettini, while a racing favorite of mine, won't be 100% tomorrow as he broke a rib on the last stage of Vaisco this week.

Damn....can't wait for tomorrow! Going to get up early to start 'watching' it online.
 

ire

Turbo Monkey
Aug 6, 2007
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I'd like to see Bettini get a rock. He's so small he must get tossed around pretty good, but still.
I read not too long ago that hes not on form (his words). This was probably two weeks ago, it was on velonews. I would like to see him win as well, but I doubt he has a shot
 

sanjuro

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Sep 13, 2004
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Well, it seems Boonen has a way of blowing it when it really matters, a lot of the time. Yeah, he's won a bunch, but some of these major classics he's just fallen flat..
Huh?

Tour of Flanders (twice), Paris-Roubaix, Gent-Wevelgem, and the Het Volk? That's falling flat?

If you have said he hasn't been winning the classics in the last two years, definitely. But he has won the biggest Spring Classics, period.
 

sanjuro

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Well, Sanjuro gets the Internet Cake for guessing correctly!

And yes, Boonen has won many quality races, but has not been as dominant as some would make him out to be, at times.
I had no idea who'd win. Actually, Boonen and Cancellara are my two favorite rides in the peleton, so I wished I could have seen the final kms live.
 

ire

Turbo Monkey
Aug 6, 2007
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I failed at teh guess :( Cancellara was close, but no cigar. I'll get to watch it on TV......next week :plthumbsdown:
 

JRogers

talks too much
Mar 19, 2002
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Interesting race...seems like it's not often that in a race like this with so many factors (mechanical, crashes, length of the race, weather, etc) that three of the top favorites make the final selection. In any case, I'm happy that Boonen won. I'm a fan and from what I've read, it seems like he would've been a real contender in Flanders if Devolder weren't out front. So, it's nice he got a chance. From the finish photos, seems like the final wasn't much of a contest.
 

OGRipper

back alley ripper
Feb 3, 2004
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From the finish photos, seems like the final wasn't much of a contest.
Velonews is reporting that Cancellara was completely knackered and cramped up at the end, whereas Boonen was still strong.

Look at Boonen's legs in this pic. He is a monster when he's on.



As for Hincapie, too bad. With those other guys he probably would have gotten smoked in the sprint anyway, but it would have been cool to see him up there.
 

ire

Turbo Monkey
Aug 6, 2007
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looks like Boonen is going to try for another green jersey
http://www.cyclingnews.com/news.php?id=news/2008/apr08/apr16news2

Boonen targets Tour, Worlds

Just days after claiming his second Paris-Roubaix crown Quick Step's Tom Boonen is already looking towards the next goals for his 2008 season. The Belgian rider has his eyes on another green jersey at the Tour de France and also feels the World Championship course in Italy could see him take back the crown he claimed in 2005 from team-mate Paolo Bettini.

"Now, the next big target, is the green jersey," Boonen told AFP. "All will depend on the first week. If I can collect enough points then there will be a good chance. After that, the Worlds road race course in Varese [Italy] will suit me well.

"Certain riders said they have found it [the world's course] hard," he added. "You can never compare looking over a course with the race itself."

Boonen took a commanding victory in the French Spring Classic on Sunday after winning the sprint from break-away rivals Fabian Cancellara (Team CSC) and Alessandro Ballan (Lampre). The 27 year-old is taking some time out after his victory to fully recover from the impact of the French cobbles.

"I need to relax on the days following the Paris-Roubaix," said Boonen, who has won six stages on the Tour de France. "You need to let the muscles relax after such a race.

"It's clear that I haven't recovered completely after the tension of Sunday," he added. "It will take me some more time, that is normal."
 

Westy

the teste
Nov 22, 2002
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It amazes me how many of the favorites took themselves out of the race due to some questionable equipment choices. Do these guys think that the difference between winning and losing can actually come down to running slightly more aerodynamic wheels?
 

ire

Turbo Monkey
Aug 6, 2007
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It amazes me how many of the favorites took themselves out of the race due to some questionable equipment choices. Do these guys think that the difference between winning and losing can actually come down to running slightly more aerodynamic wheels?
Those wheels could make a difference if you were in a small break; at that level of the sport those guys are trying for any advatnage they can get. The guy I ride with (he races pro xc) is always looking for ways to shave grams off his bike; his theory is the lighter the bike is, the less weight slowing him down on the hills :hmm:
 

OGRipper

back alley ripper
Feb 3, 2004
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It amazes me how many of the favorites took themselves out of the race due to some questionable equipment choices. Do these guys think that the difference between winning and losing can actually come down to running slightly more aerodynamic wheels?
Tough call. All things being equal that kind of choice CAN make the difference, but obviously not if you can't get to the finish line. And with guys like boonen and cancellara up there for the finale, all things are not equal, so every advantage is needed to have a shot. It's a risk for sure.
 

Westy

the teste
Nov 22, 2002
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Tough call. All things being equal that kind of choice CAN make the difference, but obviously not if you can't get to the finish line. And with guys like boonen and cancellara up there for the finale, all things are not equal, so every advantage is needed to have a shot. It's a risk for sure.
I just remember reading somewhere how the rider creates over 90% of the wind resistance and little things like wheels really don't make that big of a difference outside of a time trial. For a race like the P-R the toughest challenge isn't cheating the wind but beating the cobbles. It has always seemed simple to me that if the chance of a piece of equipment failing is greater than the advantage it gives you don't use it. It would seem to me that some of this stuff is there more for mental confidence rather than actual performance.

It always made me laugh how Postal would spend tons of money trying to cut 100 grams from a TT skinsuit and ol Lance would always go out there wearing a gold chain around his neck.
 

Westy

the teste
Nov 22, 2002
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Those wheels could make a difference if you were in a small break; at that level of the sport those guys are trying for any advatnage they can get. The guy I ride with (he races pro xc) is always looking for ways to shave grams off his bike; his theory is the lighter the bike is, the less weight slowing him down on the hills :hmm:
I had an argument with a weight weenie friend about tire choice and busted out the calculations. My argument was that a better handling bike could be faster. For example a 150lb rider with a 25lb bike hitting the brakes just once to slow down from 11mph to 9 mph wastes the same amount of energy as you would save by dropping 100 grams on a 1000ft climb. Apply that to several corners or rough sections and it adds up more than the weight savings would.
 

ire

Turbo Monkey
Aug 6, 2007
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I had an argument with a weight weenie friend about tire choice and busted out the calculations. My argument was that a better handling bike could be faster. For example a 150lb rider with a 25lb bike hitting the brakes just once to slow down from 11mph to 9 mph wastes the same amount of energy as you would save by dropping 100 grams on a 1000ft climb. Apply that to several corners or rough sections and it adds up more than the weight savings would.
Yeah, I agree. I run more Stans sealant in my tires to avoid flats....the extra weight is worth it since a flat can cost you minutes
 

OGRipper

back alley ripper
Feb 3, 2004
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NORCAL is the hizzle
I just remember reading somewhere how the rider creates over 90% of the wind resistance and little things like wheels really don't make that big of a difference outside of a time trial. For a race like the P-R the toughest challenge isn't cheating the wind but beating the cobbles. It has always seemed simple to me that if the chance of a piece of equipment failing is greater than the advantage it gives you don't use it. It would seem to me that some of this stuff is there more for mental confidence rather than actual performance.

It always made me laugh how Postal would spend tons of money trying to cut 100 grams from a TT skinsuit and ol Lance would always go out there wearing a gold chain around his neck.
I agree with a lot of this, but when you talk about the highest levels of cycling something that is not "that big of a difference" can be enough. Also, keep in mind the whole sponsor/product development angle - there is always a lot of publicity about equipment choice at P-R, and some teams are probably pressured (or strictly obligated) to ride stuff they might not otherwise choose.
 

sanjuro

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Sep 13, 2004
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I agree with a lot of this, but when you talk about the highest levels of cycling something that is not "that big of a difference" can be enough. Also, keep in mind the whole sponsor/product development angle - there is always a lot of publicity about equipment choice at P-R, and some teams are probably pressured (or strictly obligated) to ride stuff they might not otherwise choose.
Actually, you see a lot of sharpies out to remove tire and wheel logos.

The most important factor to winning the P-R is finishing the P-R. This race is where experience outweighs technology when it comes to component choice. Don't forget, Hincapie broke an aluminum steerer a few years ago!

I hear about old school rims like GP4's or Ambrosio being used for racing. Special cyclo-cross tubulars, different bars, etc.
 

Westy

the teste
Nov 22, 2002
54,542
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Sleazattle
I agree with a lot of this, but when you talk about the highest levels of cycling something that is not "that big of a difference" can be enough. Also, keep in mind the whole sponsor/product development angle - there is always a lot of publicity about equipment choice at P-R, and some teams are probably pressured (or strictly obligated) to ride stuff they might not otherwise choose.
If I was running a company I'd use P-R as an opportunity to market other products in the line. Racer boys see the racy stuff at every other race. Specialized has cashed in on this with their Roubaix. Like 99% of road riders I don't race and if I was going to drop coin on a new bike tomorrow it would be something like a Roubaix.