[SkaredShtles]

I heard that it will be a sudden drop off

This is nonsense. When the guys/gals LOOKING for oil realize that the easy stuff is running out the price will start to rise. How "gradually" it rises will depend on the speculators. But over time the price WILL rise and it will meet on the curve with renewable sources and THAT is the point at which we will see the renewables take off.

But as Toshi points out - we'll probably be good for our lifetimes. So don't expect anything "drastic" to happen any time soon.

 

[BikeMike]

edit: SS says it in fewer words^

I heard that it will be a sudden drop off because the last bit will be too hard to get out. Its like getting the last bit of ketchup out of the bottle. Its there but you can't get it.

If this ^ is true, the market will react accordingly. An oil field or two has run out at some point, so there's at least some data on which to base predictions. Also, not all extraction operations draw from the same fossil fuel pool, so not everything will run out at once. A steep shift in the equilibrium price of major fuels would undoubtedly cause hardships, but an "end of the world/run for the hills" scene triggered by sudden, unexpected depletion of fossil fuels is unrealistic.

 

[jimmydean]

Only then will you be allowed trails in there.

I'm not supposed to ride the trails in there? I thought the no bike signs were just a ploy to keep the traffic down, like yield signs on the road.

No wonder those stupid hikers get all bent when I tell them to "get a bike!"

 

[jonKranked]

edit: SS says it in fewer words^



If this ^ is true, the market will react accordingly. An oil field or two has run out at some point, so there's at least some data on which to base predictions. Also, not all extraction operations draw from the same fossil fuel pool, so not everything will run out at once. A steep shift in the equilibrium price of major fuels would undoubtedly cause hardships, but an "end of the world/run for the hills" scene triggered by sudden, unexpected depletion of fossil fuels is unrealistic.

tl;dr version:

oil = finitie resource

cheap now.

supply/demand will change. mostly supply. prices will rise according.

right now, oil is cheaper than other renewables because the infrastructure exists and can produce high volume.

as supply decreases and price increases, we'll hit a point when oil is no longer cheaper than renewables. then we will start to see the change. assuming we haven't blacked out the sun to stop skynet at that point. or we haven't baked alive. or drowned.

 

[sanjuro]

Wind:

This map is why I laugh at environmental issues for the most part.

Why isn't the entire coastline of California highlighted for wind power?

Every time I visit the beach in Norcal, it feels like a continual 30 mph wind.

So why isn't wind power being developed for California, which must be the highest electricity-consuming state?

I should hand out flyers in Malibu or San Luis Obisbo that on one side say, "We Need Renewable Energy" and on the other side, "Build 100 foot wind mills in your town!".

The reality is that the rich, who are the only people who can afford beachfront property, would never allow an ugly tower to ruin their view, even if it meant coal-fired plants in the poor parts.

 

[CrabJoe StretchPants]

tl;dr version:

oil = finitie resource

cheap now.

supply/demand will change. mostly supply. prices will rise according.

right now, oil is cheaper than other renewables because the infrastructure exists and can produce high volume.

as supply decreases and price increases, we'll hit a point when oil is no longer cheaper than renewables. then we will start to see the change. assuming we haven't blacked out the sun to stop skynet at that point. or we haven't baked alive. or drowned.

Your shorter version was longer than the long version, which happens to be shorter than your "short" version. So it's actually longer than the short version, which defeats the purpose of putting up a shorter version of a long version.

 

[UNHrider]

Pour in a bit of water and swish it around? Will that work here as well?

It does. A lot fields produce water with the oil/gas so it gets pumped back in to keep the reservoir pressure up and producing.

I don't really see the end of the world happening when oil gets too expensive to extract. The same companies that extract hydrocarbons will be the first ones to switch to other methods as soon as they become more profitable then oil.

As to what woody said, the oil and gas companies can only extract a percentage of the reservoir. I can't see a sudden drop off, we just won't be able to get the oil out of the ground for less than what it sells for. the only reasons fields become "dead" is because it costs too much to get the hydrocarbon out. Plenty of supposed brown fields were re-tapped when the price of oil went above $100/barrel because it was profitable to do so again.

 

[jonKranked]

Your shorter version was longer than the long version, which happens to be shorter than your "short" version. So it's actually longer than the short version, which defeats the purpose of putting up a shorter version of a long version.

to quote frankenstein's monster:


"FIRE BAD"

 

[berkshire_rider]

Why isn't the entire coastline of California highlighted for wind power?

The reality is that the rich, who are the only people who can afford beachfront property, would never allow an ugly tower to ruin their view, even if it meant coal-fired plants in the poor parts.

You never know what might happen in the future

 

[jonKranked]

This map is why I laugh at environmental issues for the most part.

Why isn't the entire coastline of California highlighted for wind power?

Every time I visit the beach in Norcal, it feels like a continual 30 mph wind.

So why isn't wind power being developed for California, which must be the highest electricity-consuming state?

I should hand out flyers in Malibu or San Luis Obisbo that on one side say, "We Need Renewable Energy" and on the other side, "Build 100 foot wind mills in your town!".

The reality is that the rich, who are the only people who can afford beachfront property, would never allow an ugly tower to ruin their view, even if it meant coal-fired plants in the poor parts.

don't forget, everything west of the san andreas fault is going to:

A) slide under the ocean
B) get sucked down under the fault line and below the continental US
C) shift up to canada, and eventually alaska

 

[Toshi]

This map is why I laugh at environmental issues for the most part.

Why isn't the entire coastline of California highlighted for wind power?

Every time I visit the beach in Norcal, it feels like a continual 30 mph wind.

So why isn't wind power being developed for California, which must be the highest electricity-consuming state?

I should hand out flyers in Malibu or San Luis Obisbo that on one side say, "We Need Renewable Energy" and on the other side, "Build 100 foot wind mills in your town!".

The reality is that the rich, who are the only people who can afford beachfront property, would never allow an ugly tower to ruin their view, even if it meant coal-fired plants in the poor parts.

NIMBYism is real, but your perceptions with regard to the wind resource available apparently simply are incorrect. You're also wrong about California with regard to energy use, too: the temperate climate actually means that Californians are relatively frugal as a whole compared to America in general.

 

[Toshi]

Oh, and I'm going to requote myself in response to the people who say "oh, it's simple economics, once renewables become as cheap as oil then the changeover will happen":

Ah, but [renewables] won't become cheaper in absolute terms. The whole world will become poorer since so much of our wealth is predicated on the availability of cheap oil. The only way to game the system is to guess correctly and time one's large-scale (nation-scale) purchases of solar and wind fabrication at the tail end of the cheap oil era but before widespread recognition and demand drives prices for the [renewable infrastructure] through the roof.

Energy in general will be more expensive when that cost parity is reached. We'll just all be the poorer for it.

 

[jonKranked]

So Toshi, are you going to join my post apocalyptic commune or not?

 

[SkaredShtles]

Oh, and I'm going to requote myself in response to the people who say "oh, it's simple economics, once renewables become as cheap as oil then the changeover will happen":

It IS simple economics. Except it's "once oil becomes as EXPENSIVE as renewables the change will start to happen at a quicker pace." And you're right - we'll all be poorer because of it. But so what? Tough noogies.

 

[Toshi]

So Toshi, are you going to join my post apocalyptic commune or not?

Ridemonkeyville could be next door to the Otterville that the NASIOC people will start in inland, overbuilt China.

It IS simple economics. Except it's "once oil becomes as EXPENSIVE as renewables the change will start to happen at a quicker pace." And you're right - we'll all be poorer because of it. But so what? Tough noogies.

That's the thing, though: it won't be smooth and painless. It will involve lifestyle change, change that people are understandably unwilling to make voluntarily while the going is good. It may not turn out to be a Mad Max wilderness but it certainly won't be business as usual, and that's just from the energy availability standpoint, ignoring the possible/probable environmental consequences entirely.

 

[jonKranked]

It IS simple economics. Except it's "once oil becomes as EXPENSIVE as renewables the change will start to happen at a quicker pace." And you're right - we'll all be poorer because of it. But so what? Tough noogies.

another reason oil has the advantages now is that the industry is older, technology is more developed, and economies of scale.


renewables are much newer comparatively, production scale is WAY smaller, and the technology is improving all the time. we're still seeing regular improvements in efficiencies.

 

[SkaredShtles]

<snip>
That's the thing, though: it won't be smooth and painless. It will involve lifestyle change, change that people are understandably unwilling to make voluntarily while the going is good. It may not turn out to be a Mad Max wilderness but it certainly won't be business as usual, and that's just from the energy availability standpoint, ignoring the possible/probable environmental consequences entirely.

Yeah - that's why I said "tough noogies"... people are going to have to adapt. Boo-hoo. SIUP. (not directed at you)

 

[sanjuro]

NIMBYism is real, but your perceptions with regard to the wind resource available apparently simply are incorrect. You're also wrong about California with regard to energy use, too: the temperate climate actually means that Californians are relatively frugal as a whole compared to America in general.

I found this table of total usage per capita: http://www.eia.doe.gov/states/sep_sum/plain_html/rank_use_per_cap.html

California was #2 in usage for every fuel source besides coal (behind Texas). However, per capita, we ranked #47.

It is an interesting chart. Texas seems to be the biggest pig, leading in every category for raw usage, and 5th for per capita consumption.

Wyoming, Alaska, and Louisiana were the highest per capita, which is odd since LA is not exactly chilly for most of the year.

I'll have to take your word that my wind tower perceptions are incorrect, but I have noticed more solar popping up everywhere.

 

[CrabJoe StretchPants]

Wyoming, Alaska, and Louisiana were the highest per capita, which is odd since LA is not exactly chilly for most of the year.

I'm assuming the usage isn't for heating homes....

 

[Toshi]

Even looking at the gross figures (vs. per capita) is really, really stupid. Yeah, it's a big state.

:facepalm:

 

[jimmydean]

I'll have to take your word that my wind tower perceptions are incorrect, but I have noticed more solar popping up everywhere.

Not only are there a lot of solar options around here, but after Solar World moved into the old Fujitsu building, it's gotten crazy.

I know at one point Oregon was the largest supplier of solar materials in the US.

 

[TN]

I'm assuming the usage isn't for heating homes....

lol obama 08

 

[CrabJoe StretchPants]

And when the oil runs out what are we going to make plastic out of?

Unicorn blood.

Edit - post deleted LOL.

 

[jonKranked]

Unicorn blood.

That said, 99% of plastics aren't made from/of oil in any way. So there.

Edit - post deleted LOL.

lol wut

 

[CrabJoe StretchPants]

lol wut

Brain fart. Sarcasm fail. Results of 3hr meeting.

 

[demo 9]

Just a thought for a few of you, i charge whatever i can in my truck while im driving, the alternator is charging the battery thats full, might as well, even if its not the greenest (which i think its better than your house) its still free. (i dont think it affects the trucks gas mileage.

 

[Toshi]

Just a thought for a few of you, i charge whatever i can in my truck while im driving, the alternator is charging the battery thats full, might as well, even if its not the greenest (which i think its better than your house) its still free. (i dont think it affects the trucks gas mileage.

I'm glad you're "doing your part", whatever that may mean to you, but unfortunately thermodynamics is against your current plan. It's not free energy. The alternator is working that much harder and the energy is ultimately coming from the fuel in your tank.

Will you notice it in your mpg, or will you notice running, say, your headlights on all the time? Let's consider the latter, since a constant 55W draw is much easier to back-of-napkin than a puny, intermittently used cell phone charger:

Drive 25 miles over an hour with headlights off at baseline in a 25 mpg average car, use 1 gallon. Check. How much energy was used? There was/is about 121 megajoules of energy in that gallon, or 33.6 kWh.

Drive 25 miles over an hour with your 55W headlights on. How much fuel did you use, everything else being the same? 33.655 kWh, that's how much, an increase of about 0.1%--way too small for you to notice at the pump.

/physics lesson of the day

 

[demo 9]

I'm glad you're "doing your part", whatever that may mean to you, but unfortunately thermodynamics is against your current plan. It's not free energy. The alternator is working that much harder and the energy is ultimately coming from the fuel in your tank.

Will you notice it in your mpg, or will you notice running, say, your headlights on all the time? Let's consider the latter, since a constant 55W draw is much easier to back-of-napkin than a puny, intermittently used cell phone charger:

Drive 25 miles over an hour with headlights off at baseline in a 25 mpg average car, use 1 gallon. Check. How much energy was used? There was/is about 121 megajoules of energy in that gallon, or 33.6 kWh.

Drive 25 miles over an hour with your 55W headlights on. How much fuel did you use, everything else being the same? 33.655 kWh, that's how much, an increase of about 0.1%--way too small for you to notice at the pump.

/physics lesson of the day

AH sh!t, is that better spent in your car, or in your house. My truck charges my laptop, phone, and ipod, sure thats not running a full household, but is it greener(cheaper?) in the 3 tsp of gas it uses over a month, or in the electric you use in your house (which uses gas to happen anyway?)

 

[Toshi]

My advice: don't worry about it. If it's more convenient to charge in your truck do it there.

 

[mandown]

Sorry I'm late to the party. The first post smacks of "can't win, don't try." if we are all going to die, and our kids are doomed, then just open mouth and insert gun.

I like the sentiment that pets are contributors to the problem. I'll go one step beyond and finger kids... as a big part of the problem. Slow down the breeding, and cut consumption off at the source. My tubes are tied, so that should entitle me to drive a gas powered car.

Sure the Prius won't save us, but it is a step in the right direction. The aqueducts didn't save the Romans, but it was a step along the way to modern society. Dial up modems are all but worthless now, but they served a purpose. More steps are ahead, and some painful, but it sure won't be painless or the end of the world.

 

[Whoops]

It's possibly better than leaving the electronics on at home (on standby)... but in the larger scheme of things it's more or less irrelevant (other than to signal a way of life that is reliant on externalities you don't pay for/have to face the consequences of).

No one is innocent, least of all me.


Still, in a few billion years the Sun will expand and swallow the Earth, wiping out any trace of our collective efforts and guilt.

Awesome eh? Makes you get up in the morning and feel good about life!

 

[mandown]

...also, it may not be so bad right now with these problems. After all, many times in life it is better with the devil you know than the devil you don't.

 

[jdcamb]

This hits me hard as I have been developing as auto based missle system. Firstly in order for me to achieve the sales numbers for the system to make me insanely wealthy most of the components need to be plastic or composite. Secondly because the goverment is anti business most of the propellent is made from Petroleum products as I can't find a source for Rocket Fuel. No problem I have a huge basement I will just make my own. My plan other then the open pit of gasoline was to buy several expensive high performance automobiles with all my wealth. If I can't get fuel because its all gone them whats the point?? This sucks. Well I guess I'll go back to building my Time machine.....

 

[stevew]

if only we could harness the power of stupid/smug.....

 

[jdcamb]

if only we could harness the power of stupid/smug.....

As you can see I am working on it. I just need to figure out the right mixture. Plus it keeps getting contaminated with crazy... I am thinking it closely resembles Beer.

 

[demo 9]

I drive a 12 mpg tundra 15-16k a year, have a computer with 3 screens and a giant system, 3 fish tanks with 6 plugs each, the hole in the atmosphere is probably right above my house, that said, if i could help i would, too bad toshi ruined all our hopes (not that he is wrong)

 

[Whoops]

As you can see I am working on it. I just need to figure out the right mixture. Plus it keeps getting contaminated with crazy... I am thinking it closely resembles Beer.

Don't mix any Angry in there... no one likes an Angry drunk. Try Vodka instead - it's good for Rocket Fuel.

 

[jonKranked]

once again, demo 9 proves he knows about nothing about how cars work, or how to drive one. are we sure he's not really an asian woman?

 

[demo 9]

once again, demo 9 proves he knows about nothing about how cars work, or how to drive one. are we sure he's not really an asian woman?

Im the asian woman thats going to nail you on 208 on your way to work

 

[jonKranked]

Im the asian woman thats going to nail you on 208 on your way to work