Well, it's technically correct, which as we know, is the best kind of correct.I had a relative of a friend post this on teh FB in all seriousness:
The #toshi2020 platform
- Thread starter Toshi
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- #toshi2020
Wait...you mean they arent true?
If feelings = facts for Newt Gingrich, then god damn it, you better believe the Diamond Joe really has been banned for life from Dave and Busters.
As a front runner for Department of Toiletries I think there should be minimim standards of absorption for toilet paper provided in public restrooms. Your ass is America's ass, treat it well. 
I had a relative of a friend post this on teh FB in all seriousness:
Name pls
Must send friend request.
i want to be in charge of the department of "mountain bikes wherever the fuck they want and horses gtfo and proceed directly to the glue factory," plz.
I am mostly supportive of Toshi’s platform; Especially ‘get rid of fossil fuel subsidies’, but I am surprised that you don’t go for free education and healthcare. Once you’ve ditched much of the military spending you’ll be able to afford it. Maybe take a look at the Danish model for this stuff, pretty great.
big question here.
What happens with all the "special interest" groups?
Can you even sweep them under the rug?
What happens with all the "special interest" groups?
Can you even sweep them under the rug?
Non progressive flat tax for bezos types is still stupid. Unless it starts at 100% with deductions still amounting what might as well be a progressive tax structure.
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Can't be posting no unnamed countries on no american discussion forum without directions!
I quite like how Poland and Hungary have left the EU and are back to an association agreement. Works for me!
serious q from non european here.
why would you want to leave the EU?
In my book, its pretty awesome... and much better than being out of it.
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Oh I don’t want to leave, I just want those two countries severely sanctioned. The EU is proving pretty toothless in that regard since one always votes against sanctioning the other.
Srsly - the move towards right-wing Nationalism horseshit really needs to be nipped in the bud.
what are the odds of Trump winning the next election?
As much as I despise Trump, I have to admit he is an extraordinaire candidate. He has almost-fanatical followers...
Cant say that for Biden, or even Obama at his peak...
As much as I despise Trump, I have to admit he is an extraordinaire candidate. He has almost-fanatical followers...
Cant say that for Biden, or even Obama at his peak...
75% Biden, 24% Trump, 1% electoral college tie is the current readout from 538.
2020 Election Forecast
Latest forecast of the 2020 presidential election between President Donald Trump and Joe Biden by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight
I'm so beaten down by the bullshit these days that I can't bring myself to believe that.75% Biden, 24% Trump, 1% electoral college tie is the current readout from 538.
2020 Election Forecast
Latest forecast of the 2020 presidential election between President Donald Trump and Joe Biden by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEightprojects.fivethirtyeight.com
Not that election forecast's matter, pretty obvious they're aiming at setting up for El Presdiente for life regardless of how the voting goes.
I'll be your neighbor down south in Queenstown if that comes to pass, as it'd be hard to pass up skiing close to home after living in Denver...
You'll let me in. I'll use Jedi mind powers on the customs people!Pretty sure our borders will still be closed to plague countries for another 1-2 years.
I think being on the desired occupations list would help in this setting. Definitely a mandatory quarantine on arrival!
I could perhaps pass as a Hobbit or more likely a warrior dwarf
So, they giving Trump, months in advance, a slight less chance (24% vs 28.6%) than he had been given days before he won in 2016, yet still in the same ballpark.75% Biden, 24% Trump, 1% electoral college tie is the current readout from 538.
2020 Election Forecast
Latest forecast of the 2020 presidential election between President Donald Trump and Joe Biden by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight
Interesting....
Exactly this worries the piss out of me.
Dictators/authoritatians in SA has long been known to have a strong core of "shame" voters.
A not insignificant % of supporters/voters who will not openly say they support the candidate, or say they will vote for them on polls, yet will predictably vote for them.
If we blow up, perhaps we will rob latinoamerica somewhat less?
the chinese are doing a mighty fine job at that now. no need to worry.
All said and done, i still much prefer to have SEC-sanctioned corporations or european/japanese companies taking the natural resources from latam.
At least you get some high quality jobs and a pretense of social and enviromental responsability.
Chinese corporations? all currently operating in the mining industry here are known for rock bottom wages and blatant disregard for safety/enviromental concerns.
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75% Biden, 24% Trump, 1% electoral college tie is the current readout from 538.
2020 Election Forecast
Latest forecast of the 2020 presidential election between President Donald Trump and Joe Biden by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight
50/50, best case scenario, and that does not include the Russians.
the burning question is
50/50, best case scenario, and that does not include the Russians.
1) how many electoral votes have a difference smaller than twice the margin of error in polls.
2) how many of these states have below-average socieconomic demographics (shame voters traits).
assume all those in 2) will vote for trump and recalculate.
if trump doesnt get 270 from this, he will probably loose.
If he does... holy shit.
I just ran my idea... and holy shit. NC, FL, AZ, PA and WI are all at under 6% difference.
Trump just needs 61+ votes from those roughly 85 to win. I doubt he will loose NC and FL, so thats 44.
Then he would just need PA or WI+AZ to win. Not easy, but I feel he has more way more than 25% of a chance to win.
Its going to be close
Trump just needs 61+ votes from those roughly 85 to win. I doubt he will loose NC and FL, so thats 44.
Then he would just need PA or WI+AZ to win. Not easy, but I feel he has more way more than 25% of a chance to win.
Its going to be close
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2016 should have taught everyone to not be comfortable in polling, and to assume nothing. Anyone "predicting" or "calling" the next election is trying to sell you something.