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Toshi's thread

Discussion in 'Northeast' started by Toshi, Apr 20, 2002.

  1. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    1) $1,079 in first year registration fees for the PacHy in Denver County. Oof.

    2) Because I am reusing old plates (that have laid fallow in my toolbox for a few years) I couldn't do the registration online, so had to call 311.

    3) 311 recorded message of "para espanol marque el numero dos" is by a woman with a hilariously white sounding rendition of it.
     

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  2. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/four-upcoming-self-driving-level-3-cars-by-2019.90930/

    Looks like Tesla, Audi, Nissan, and Volvo will be the contenders for my future dollarbucks. ProPilot 1.0 is a weak sauce level 2 system. I want at least level 3 if not 4 if that’s on sale. 2020 will still have a $4k CO EV/PHEV rebate so it’ll probably be around then.
     
  3. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    TIL that dealing with data in a cell array in MATLAB is a pain in the ass. Example:

    Through this exercise, however, I did find that the 5 years of articles I downloaded from one of the top 3 or so radiology journals do not show evidence of p-hacking when analyzed in the aggregate. This is reassuring in that I hope that what's being published at the top levels isn't crap. It's also nice because I've been planning to do this project for months now, yet finally got around to implementing it in the last few weeks.

    The abstract that I then wrote around this analysis method and the results of the absence of p hacking in this one journal and time period will take me to a conference in DC at the end of May. (I need such abstracts accepted to access 15 of the 20 professional days I get each academic year expressly for this kind of stuff.)



    My brain is now tired.
     
  4. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    So it looks like tax “reform” is going to become law. The effects of the giveaways in the 11th hour aren’t clear yet, but here’s the Tax Policy Center’s analysis of the version closest to that which the senate passed.



    Definition of the percentiles used (in 2017 dollars):
    20% $25,400
    40% $49,600
    60% $87,400
    80% $150,100
    90% $217,800;
    95% $308,200
    99% $746,100
    99.9% $3,587,300
     
  5. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    The noise canceling headphones I picked up as an Amazon Cyber Monday deal are actually pretty sweet. Just got around to trying them now. My last and only set of noise canceling cans were an Audio Technica set from maybe 10? years ago. The head band part broke a few months ago and my wife grew tired of me stealing hers on trips.

    Anyway, cool things the new ones do:

    - cup hand over right earpiece and it turns off noise canceling and mics external sounds temporarily (like for a flight attendant or spouse)
    - senses movement and has different customizable levels of noise cancellation for sitting at rest, walking, running, traveling at speed
    - surround effects, sound stage position effects, and some high bitrate Bluetooth audio deal: sounds good enough to me, and in the past I used to rock Sennheiser HD600 cans with a dedicated headphone amp for context
    - can tap and swipe on the right headphone outer panel to pause, accept a call, change volume, and change tracks. This plus wireless is handy.
    - built in rechargeable battery with 30 hour life instead of fiddly AAAs that’d inevitably run low mid flight
     
  6. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    First fill-up with the PacHy. Reported MPG is blended and accounts for the electricity use at 33 kWh per gallon of gasoline, I believe.

    The gasoline mile-only mileage as manually calculated is actually pretty shitty, 18.3 MPG. This is likely reflective of the gas engine being turned on for short bits just for defrosting and heating rather than actual propulsion for reasonable lengths of time.

    I have no idea how much electricity was consumed for those 84.1% of electric-only miles: our home EVSE doesn't log usage and besides that usage is split between two electric vehicles. I could probably back of napkin it based off of that aggregate 48.1 MPG figure but don't care that much. All I am certain of is that those electric only miles were carbon free via our utility's WindSource program and PV on our roof.
     
  7. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    I just set up a rental of a Canon 50 mm f/1.2L for my family's May trip to Orlando (for a conference). I figure that'll make for some nice wide portraits of kids + Disney characters, and 10 days' rental (couldn't make it shorter due to shipping day restrictions) was about 10% of purchase price, so that's that...
     
  8. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    Uh, so I might be getting another car this month...

    ... and no, it's not because the PacHy has failed. :D In fact, we love it. It's noticeably quieter and smoother than the RAV4 EV, which itself is no slouch compared to most gasoline vehicles. The real killer feature is the full-speed adaptive cruise.

    Rationale:
    1. Non-negligible chance that in reconciliation the tax bill ultimately adopted will kill the Federal EV tax credit after Dec 31, 2017. (The House bill axes it and the Senate bill keeps it, but nothing's set in stone until reconciliation is completed and it's signed.)
    2. We still don't have a 3rd kid on the way but it's probably going to happen sooner or later. I also go skiing mid-week while the kids are in school. Once kid 3 happens I won't be able to steal the wife's PacHy to go skiing because she'll need the minivan for its 3 car seat capability, and the RAV4 EV doesn't have enough range to make it to the mountains and back on a single charge.
    3. I absolutely love the full speed dynamic cruise on the PacHy, and to be able to step up to something even better on the other car would be fabulous (e.g. Nissan ProPilot Assist).
    So... were I to replace the RAV4 EV imminently it'd meet this set of requirements:
    • Eligible for Federal and state EV/PHEV tax credits.
    • Able to get me to and from skiing, whether via enough range in and of itself, fast charging along the way, or being a PHEV and using gas for that trip.
    • At least full-speed dynamic cruise control, but ideally something even better.
    • Not priced like a Tesla. Not super keen on the used Tesla market, either--I'd want something with the AP2 hardware so as to be full self-driving capable down the road in theory, and that shit isn't cheap and isn't eligible for tax credits (CO axed their used-EV credit in 2016).
    • Can fit two kid car seats, one of them rear-facing, easily, so no i3 with the range extender in particular.
    • Available for delivery this month.
    Is this feasible? I don't know. I have to look into range (including altitude gain!), availability of quick charging, availability of fancy cruise and cruise++ systems, and whether these vehicles are actually on lots at this very moment.
     
  9. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    So is anything actually available that'd work given the above constraints? (Again, keep in mind that I'm limiting it to BEVs and PHEVs due to the tax credit situation. If there's no tax credit pressure then I'll gladly drive the RAV4 EV for another year until kid 3 surfaces or doesn't.)

    Nissan: The 2018 LEAF isn't available yet, let alone the model with the 60 kWh pack (I already have 41.8 kWh with the admittedly less efficient RAV4 EV, and that doesn't cut it), plus there's no CHAdeMO charging between Denver and Aspen. No go.

    Chevy Volt: Maybe. Has the fancy cruise at least. Not sure about headroom. However, no local Volt inventory shows up so this is similarly a no go given the must-be-December constraint. (Bolt has the same LEAF charging-for-skiing problem and has no fancy cruise at all. Nope.)

    Ford Fusion Energi: Ticks the boxes with appropriate options or trims, and apparently are available locally, although I'm not sure if this includes phantom ordered-but-not-built-or-here-yet models.

    Toyota Prius Prime: As per my earlier musing (and canceled order!) this would work. Not a great Land Cruiser replacement but we have that covered now with the minivan... Per the inventory search it exists on the ground but I have my doubts.
     
  10. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    So it's really down to the Fusion Energi and the Prius Prime, if I'm going to lock in those tax credits now given my very restrictive criteria.

    Ford:

    - far less ugly
    - 3 rear belts, for what that's worth
    - way more expensive, which kind of defeats the purpose of this exercise. See this $39k pre-credits window sticker, for instance: http://www.windowsticker.forddirect...fsDWYZLMxcfJvB/DwbLNFv17N4YxJ5CZoZ3SfWntV3wk=

    Toyota:

    - admittedly very ugly. I don't deny this!
    - 2 rear seat belts but no one's cramming in 3 car seats anyway, and besides we have a minivan as the other vehicle
    - price is very right indeed

    I think I need to waste some Toyota dealers' time before taking off to Seattle for Christmas break. I probably should first get the RAV4 EV appraised at CarMax as a baseline, then drive a Prius Prime, get their low-ball estimate of its worth, and see if they'll deal.
     
  11. SkaredShtles

    SkaredShtles I love NEWCASTLE and will ONLY drink NEWCASTLE!!!!

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    Will you just get a goddam F150 and put a tailgate pad on it, already?

    :D
     
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  12. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    Oh, this won’t be the end. If I go through with this then I foresee:

    - buying a Tesla or other level 3 or 4 autonomous car in 2020, around student loan end-time
    - giving this fancy Prius to my parents at that time, who will have some ungodly number of miles on their base model 2016 Prius by then
    - repeat and rinse every few years?
     
    #6972 -   Dec 7, 2017
    Last edited: Dec 8, 2017 at 1:00 AM
  13. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    Getting my shit together to make this potentially happen:

    1) Cleaned out the RAV4 EV. It's really in pretty good shape save for a scratch here or there. Noise canceling headphones are awesome for the super loud car wash vacuum--why didn't I think of this years ago?

    2) Set up an appraisal appointment for Saturday morning at CarMax.

    3) Got a ballpark figure of what they might offer based off of their listing of a 2014 RAV4 EV with 20k on the clock for $20k: https://www.carmax.com/car/14625552 . On the other hand, the KBB trade in value is supposedly under $12k in good condition...

    4) Verified current loan balance on the RAV4 EV, which is just over $16k. (With regard to having a loan balance on a 2012 model year used car, what can I say? At a rate of 1.24% I will take 100% LTV for the longest term possible all day long, the term being 65 months in this particular case.) This is perfect, because my mental calculations for making this feasible at all hinge around getting $16k for it.

    5) Verified that CarMax will buy cars with a lien--you just pay CarMax for the negative equity if such a thing exists. With this loan amount and my drop dead amount of $16k I'll be fine. (Even if I was underwater I'd have been fine but would have to shuffle some money around, which could take a few precious days given the timeline. This is why I don't do gap insurance--I can afford it.)

    I won't even worry about whether the listed Prius Primes (Prii Prime?) locally exist until I verify that $16k is feasible for the RAV4 EV. If it's not in the ballpark then I'll drive along with my standard cruise control like a regular ol' plebe and will just hijack the PacHy to take skiing until circumstances dictate that I cannot.
     
  14. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    I lied and checked, since I had some downtime today. Turns out those ones listed are phantom. The only possible prospect is one due to arrive this week at Groove Toyota.

    Given all this and that CarMax will probably low ball hardcore (thus implying garden variety dealers would low ball even harder) the chances of these shenanigans resulting in action are vanishingly slim.

    I really wish there were Zipcars in my neighborhood. Then I could just sell the RAV4 EV outright and use Zipcars only when necessary...
     
  15. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    Update: CarMax lowballed hardcore. $10k!

    :lolnope:

    Thus this isn’t happening. I may sell the vehicle to Mark or Shane down the road, but now there’s no urgency because CarMax was the only route that’d have let me slip in under the gun (assuming the tax credit goes away).

    Whether the credit goes away or not I’m still likely better off keeping the RAV4 EV, renting a gas vehicle for ski days in subsequent seasons if necessary, and holding out for a Tesla Model Y or equivalent in 2021. By then Tesla will be out of tax credit territory anyway due to sales numbers so it’ll be irrelevant what happens with this year’s tax bill.
     
  16. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    So no issues this season: I’ll steal the PacHy on my Wednesday ski days and drive to Vail. Again the problem is if we have a third kid as threatened, as then I couldn’t steal the 3 seat capable minivan as then Jessica would be left a seat short.

    I looked into renting and shuttles a bit today. It looks like the local rental shops would run about $50/day, pickup at 7:30 and late drop off at any hour after returning for the day. Gas would be about $25 for a round trip.

    Typical shuttle fees would be $90 round trip, with the caveats being tips and the timeline. The one outfit I looked at has 8 as the earliest departure, and the origin is DIA so I’d have to get there beforehand, too. It’d be something like leaving here at 7, taking the train to DIA at 7:15, riding shuttle until 10 or later, skiing 11-4 straight through, hopping back on the shuttle from 4:30-7 or so, and ultimately home around 8 all said and done.

    I’m conflicted. Not driving would be awesome but it also sounds like a pain in the ass. Maybe it’d be easier to suck it up and not go weekday skiing in subsequent winters... I could revert to Winter Park and take the weekend train once again even, although that doesn’t work well with kid lesson timing.
     
  17. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    This is undoubtedly true: can't make it there and back without charging. (It is also true that the RAV4 EV doesn't have level 3 quick charging stock, and adding on such CHAdeMO quick charging aftermarket would be pointless since the only such quick chargers are in Denver and in Aspen, the latter of which is too far to reach on a single charge anyway.)

    A more interesting question is whether could I make it to a ski resort, use level 2 destination charging, and then make it back. Consider the route to Vail:



    Those three destinations in Frisco, at Copper Mountain, and in Vail are the sites of level 2 EVSE along the way or at the destination. (I'd clearly not want to waste time charging en route if not necessary, but they'd give about 15 miles of range per hour of charging in a pinch.)

    So could I make it? The altitude change is clearly a huge factor, as is the weather due to its effect on rolling resistance, battery efficiency, and power draw cabin heat. Thankfully, someone out there has modeled these factors, at least for Teslas:

    https://www.evtripplanner.com/

    With more or less reasonable assumptions (Model S 60 with the less efficient 21" wheel/tire package so heavier but more sleek than the RAV4 EV, 35 degrees outside temperature) I get the following, recalling that the RAV4 EV has a 41.8 kWh Tesla battery pack and a Model S-like electric motor:

    30.9 kWh from my house to Frisco with heat, 28.9 kWh with no heat.
    35.5 kWh from my house to Copper with heat, 33.3 kWh with no heat.
    37.9 kWh from my house to Vail with heat, 35.4 kWh with no heat, 33.9 kWh if both no heat and driving at 90% traffic speed.

    Another consideration is whether these level 2 EVSE will actually be available. In Frisco there are 2 but 1 is chronically broken and the other is reportedly often used by a Whole Foods employee (it's in their lot), so that's sketchy. In Copper there are 2, both reportedly in working order. In Vail there are 23 in town total (!), 10 of which are actually in the main parking garage that I'd park anyway. So both for convenience and for EVSE availability I want to be able to make it all the way to Vail.

    So what's the answer: Could I make it to Vail on a single charge in the RAV4 EV? Yes, in theory. I might have to drive 55 with no cabin heat, and certainly would do that for the first trial run in case the modeled Model S (Cd 0.24, about 4800 lbs) is much more efficient in reality than the RAV4 EV (0.30 Cd, about 4000 lbs).

    The net result is that I'm going to give this a try on my first planned Vail ski day, January 10. (I'm going to Keystone on Dec 31 but there are no level 2 EVSE there at all.) If this works then the whole "can't steal minivan from wife mid-week if we have 3 kids" future issue is resolved without rental cars or time-consuming shuttles. Furthermore, if this is possible on 41.8 kWh, if barely so, then with a 60 kWh LEAF it'd be no problem even with cabin heat and a normal pace.
     
  18. 6thElement

    6thElement Turbo Monkey

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    For a sufficient supply of my wifes favourite beer I'm sure we can give you some charge en-route :D
     
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  19. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    Thanks for the offer, but it's a nice demonstration of how anything but level 3/DC fast charging en route is useless.

    Charging from a 120V plug at your house via the portable level 1 EVSE in the car's trunk would yield about 2.5 miles of range per hour of charging.
    Charging from a 240V level 2 EVSE en route, like at that Whole Foods in Frisco or at the Copper Mountain parking lot, would yield about 15 miles of range per hour of charge.
    Charging at a 40 kW level 3 DC fast charger en route would give about 50 miles for a half hour of charging. (But again no such fast chargers exist between Golden and Aspen, and the RAV4 EV as it sits isn't compatible with this, either.)
    ((If I were part of the Tesla club then I could recharge at Silverthorne at their 135 kW Superchargers and get ~180 miles for 30 minutes of charging.))

    So if your house is a 3 mile detour off of I-70 I'd have to have a 3-beer brunch with you all to even have a very small net benefit...

    :D
     
  20. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    Context for my griping about CarMax low-balling me and all: I just checked my cryptocurrency "investments", and it looks like I'm up $17k+ from when I bought my positions in June 2017.

    :notbadobama:

    (I'm going to hodl until retirement, though–don't need the money now.)


    Edit: Didn't include BCC in there since that won't show up on Coinbase until Jan 1, 2018.

    :banana:
     
    #6980 -   Dec 12, 2017 at 5:35 PM
    Last edited: Dec 12, 2017 at 6:13 PM
  21. SkaredShtles

    SkaredShtles I love NEWCASTLE and will ONLY drink NEWCASTLE!!!!

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    You should sell before it crashes.
     
  22. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    If I lose all of my initial stake I'm fine with it. I'd also be very fine with hodl-ing for 25 years and getting a few million out of that…

    :D
     
  23. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    Initial word leaking out is that the "tax reform" bill at least keeps my favorite EV tax credit, in addition to not treating tuition forgiveness as income for grad students.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...id-to-keep-wind-electric-car-credits-jb5dh81s

    Still a shitty deal overall--more debt for all so that corporations and super rich families can benefit?--but that solves my "must buy a PHEV or EV NOW" problem...
     
  24. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    If there's still shit for snow on Dec 31 I may do this driving to Vail escapade instead of skiing at Keystone: drive up there +/- flatbed ride, hang around the village, eat and drink, get some electrons in the pack, head downhill in early afternoon.

    Time to establish some criteria for what I should be looking for, and when I'll need to stop for charge or not (2.1 kWh per "bar" except the last, apparently, so let's call it 2 kWh):

    I-70 and Central City Parkway: Should be still showing 13 bars of charge.
    I-70 and US-40: Should be showing 11 bars.
    I-70 and US-6 at Loveland: Should have just dropped from 7 to 6 bars left. This is the point of no return (without charging), more or less, as a round trip should use 36 kWh if I turn around here. If I'm using more energy then turning around at this time should still at least get me back to the west side of the Denver metro area, where chargers exist (e.g. Golden).

    Frisco: Should still have 6 bars left. At least 6.5 kWh needed to get from Frisco to Vail. Charge if showing less than 5 bars.
    Copper: On track will mean 4 bars showing. At least 2.1 kWh needed to get from Copper to Vail. Charge if 3 or less bars as the last bar is both smaller and associated with a limp-home mode, I believe.
    Vail: If I make it, I make it... and if I don't, the number for Toyota is 800-331-4331 if the SOS button in the car doesn't work. I should have a good enough idea before this point whether the estimates are playing out with reality, though, so actual chances of requiring a tow (assuming functional EVSE along the way!) are slim.

    As for what I need in the pack to make it home from Vail, the EV trip planner with similar assumptions as used all along says 25.7 kWh. I'll know by that point whether the assumptions were fair ones to make. If they were and I made it there ok then I should be fine with a non-extended 35 kWh charge and could even use the cabin heater! (Such luxury--like a normal car!) If I rode in on a flatbed then 41.8 kWh should do it, with any luck... and getting that full 41.8 kWh from a 6.6 kW charger will take over 6 hours.

    This all sounds like a great idea, I think. I should bring a book, and hope there's not a headwind!

    :D
     
  25. Nick

    Nick My name is Nick

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    behind you, don't wait up.
    what are those charge/range numbers based on? Because, I don't know if you've been stuck in 'typical' Denver2Vail traffic during a snow event, but you can easily double or triple the commute time, and reduce your average speeds to a healthy biking pace much of the time.

    The last time I skied Copper was on a Sunday. Perfect snow, refills all day, first chair to last chair. Left just after 4pm in a VERY light snow, got home around 10:30pm. I swore I'd never ski there again unless I skied a 1/2 day or spent the night and drove home in the morning.

    Perhaps use the electric car for predictable commutes, and maintain ownership of a fossil fuel Earth Fucker for heading into the mountains?
     
  26. Toshi

    Toshi Harbinger of Doom

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    I think the assumption indeed is of steady state driving. These Vail trips in question would be on Wednesdays so hopefully not too far off from the truth? Did the tunnel close on your nightmare Copper return trip or was the volume just that heavy?

    Replacing the RAV4 EV with a gas car or (another, like the minivan) plug-in hybrid would simplify things, yes. Thus the frenetic Prius Prime/PHEV exploration this month when I thought the tax credit was in jeopardy. So, too, would not having a third kid...

    Paths forward:

    1) No third kid. No issues taking the PHEV minivan during the week if the RAV4 EV can't make it to Vail. Wife shuttles kids that day in RAV4 EV. Done.

    2) RAV4 EV can make it to Vail. Great. I take it, revel in how cheap it is to run, and don't worry about replacing it until autonomous vehicles are hitting the market down the road a bit, which conveniently should be around when my student loans are paid off.

    2) RAV4 EV can't make it to Vail. Either I settle for charging along the way at Frisco or Copper (which still would be probably only an equivalent pain/time sink as renting or taking a shuttle) or I suck it up, realize the depreciation on it, and switch out to something else for next winter. Knowing how fickle I am and how I want an autonomous car as soon as possible, if I do this I should probably just sign up for a 24 month lease on a 60 kWh Nissan LEAF with ProPilot Assist, or go PHEV or even straight up conventional.