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Would a 3rd party win the next election?

Transcend

My Nuts Are Flat
Apr 18, 2002
18,040
3
Towing the party line.
edit: i realize this is ridiculously long, but i am home sick still and procrastinating about writing papers about globalization and it's affects ont he media, and the use of the media by politicians in emerging democracies in central eastern europe

Ok so i am thinking of writing this up as a final thesis paper for an american politics grad course, in a much more complex form of course. HEre is the basic argument.

Would a 3rd party unite americans or simply divide them further?

Here is what i would support if i was to start this party, please do not flame, buy critique constructively. DT and others input is appreciated as it will help me garner ideas from the other side of the fence so to speak.

I realize this is more of a moderate left wing perspective, but i think with a few changes probably, it would have beaten kerry easily, and bush fairly easily as well. Opinions? Any issues i missed?

Gun Control- gun owenership is a fundamental right, i believe in this. Buy why do you need a tec9 to protect your home and go hunting? Draw clear lines between millitary style equipment (100 round drum mags, bayonet lug etc) and civilian type weapons (sport shooter stuff, hunting rifles, bolt action weapons etc). Hand guns are a sticky issue, not sure what to do here. Canada does not allow them, has a higher per capita gun ownership rate and about 90% less violent crime, and 95% less gun involved crimes. Make it very clear that you will not, under any circumstances, try to keep any american from owning a gun.

Gay Marriage- If i have the right to marry my very hot GF, then they can marry theyr Bfs. What the hell do i care, it doesn't affect me. Now maybe we can come to an agreement here about CALLING it something else (civil union anyone?) as this will satiate the far right as well as the left. Most people will accept this as their is no fundamental difference, and most anyone looking to get married while being gay is not going to be strongly catholic/orthodox anyways.

Stem cell research- lets face it, the bush plan on this is dumb, youc an do it, but only on stuff before a certain date. It allows no research to be done, but also pisses off the hardliners. Why not allow for it, under all stem cell lines, but only under very stringent cell cultivating guidelines? The abortions are being done anyways for say, medical reasons (fetal alcohol syndrome, mother may die etc) may as well put it to use and not let the mothers pain be in vain right?

war in iraq - well saddaam was an asscake. Anyone who doesnt admit he needed to be taken out, frankly, is a turd burglar. Now was their terrorists there, or big old nukes/chems? No. I believe the usa coudl have garnered much mroe support if they just said look guys, he is a dick and is screwing over his whole country. What say we go in and kick his ass, and then the world can help the iraqi people have a better life? Naive? Maybe.

Health care - the us system sucks if you are poor. The canadian system is great if you are poor/cheap dont mind waiting. It took me 2 days to get a cast in canada when i shatterred my wrist, and 3 hours at a ER thsi week with gastroenteritis. It took me all of 30 mins to be xrayed and casted in the us for busted fingers. Advantage - usa, only i had insurance. I would support some sort of govt health care that increased benefots to employers for offering benefits to employees. tax cuts etc. Make sure the workers are all ocvered, and then offer some sort of basic care to the poor who cant afford it. Not sure how this would be accomplished, as i am no expert in the medical field, but hey that si what advisors are for. They just pay me to come up with ideas.

Millitary - downsize the RA and upsize special forces. provide them with the best of the best as they always were supposed to have. The millitary is a large part of what makes the us the us, it must be supported.

tax issues - sticky. I believe the rich tax cuts bush offerred shoudl be cut back a bit, as they were hefty. BUT they cant be rolled back, the rich invest and push forward the economy BUT they only invest if the little guy can afford to buy his products. Therefore, spread the massive tax cuts from the few to the many. Still lose the same amount of tax income, but spread out benefits a bit more.

foreign policy in general - the USA is returning to an isolationist yet imperialist policy (very strange mix). It is chest thumping in the middle of the road daring people to come get it. The us should use its economic power and market incentives (hello 100 million consumers) to have people do it's bidding, not millitary force.

Abortion - i would be a very wise candidate here, and avoid it at all costs. Personally, i think a woman can do whatever she wants with her body, and no politician should have the right to tell her what she can and cannot do.
 

BurlyShirley

Rex Grossman Will Rise Again
Jul 4, 2002
19,180
17
TN
IMO, that just sounds like a revised democratic stance to pick up a few more votes. Im not flaming, but I think you still miss the key elements that got Bush elected.
 

Lexx D

Dirty Dozen
Mar 8, 2004
1,480
0
NY
BurlyShirley said:
IMO, that just sounds like a revised democratic stance to pick up a few more votes. Im not flaming, but I think you still miss the key elements that got Bush elected.
Yeah like fear, abortion and homosexuals.
 

ncrider

Turbo Monkey
Aug 15, 2004
1,564
0
Los Angeles
Have you read "An Economic Theory Of Democracy" by Anthony Downs?
Being that you're a grad. student in Political Science I'm guessing you have, but if not this book is enormously helpful in the dichotomy of political parties.

You're major question or theses? Would a 3rd party win? I would think you should go into some detail on the voter distribution in the US. A third party could not win in a natural bell curved voter distribution, but I don't belive thats what we have anymore. It's likely we haven't had that since Carter.

You areas of coverage seem more like your take on policies. Some come from the left others the right. If thats just what you believe in thats fine, but for a third party to win (very doubtfull withen the next coule elections) you might want to first find the voter distribution and then base your policies around that. This will garnish the most votes and give reason to why you have selected certain stances on policy.
Hope that helps.
 

Transcend

My Nuts Are Flat
Apr 18, 2002
18,040
3
Towing the party line.
BurlyShirley said:
IMO, that just sounds like a revised democratic stance to pick up a few more votes. Im not flaming, but I think you still miss the key elements that got Bush elected.
care to elaborate? I wouldnt pander to the religious right, or the left. The point is i think it would grab enough o fthe votes that only the extreme right and extreme left voters would vote for the existing 2 parties. everyone else is a moderate anyways.
 

Transcend

My Nuts Are Flat
Apr 18, 2002
18,040
3
Towing the party line.
ncrider said:
Have you read "An Economic Theory Of Democracy" by Anthony Downs?
Being that you're a grad. student in Political Science I'm guessing you have, but if not this book is enormously helpful in the dichotomy of political parties.

You're major question or theses? Would a 3rd party win? I would think you should go into some detail on the voter distribution in the US. A third party could not win in a natural bell curved voter distribution, but I don't belive thats what we have anymore. It's likely we haven't had that since Carter.

You areas of coverage seem more like your take on policies. Some come from the left others the right. If thats just what you believe in thats fine, but for a third party to win (very doubtfull withen the next coule elections) you might want to first find the voter distribution and then base your policies around that. This will garnish the most votes and give reason to why you have selected certain stances on policy.
Hope that helps.
I have.

Like i said this is an extremely dumbed down version of what i am writing
;) . Just touching on major points. In a bell curved voter distribution it actually would most likely win, this is why most parties (up until now anyways) have tried to push a little more towards the center just prior to the election.

This is why this election was so interesting to academics, both sides attempted to polarize the electorate and empower their base, not go after the moderate voters who could be swayed. Well maybe they tried, but not very well.

A major part of this will be studying poll data (post election) and seeing why people voted the way they did.

My hypothesis is that no, a 3rd party could not win in the next 4 year cycle, but in 8-12 it could be a possibility. I do not believe pandering to the electorate would be a goal, but i do believe finding some sensical common ground would be. Like they say, you cant please everyone all the time, but this party would damn sure try. :D
 

ncrider

Turbo Monkey
Aug 15, 2004
1,564
0
Los Angeles
Transcend said:
In a bell curved voter distribution it actually would most likely win,


My hypothesis is that no, a 3rd party could not win in the next 4 year cycle, but in 8-12 it could be a possibility. :D
Your wrong and right.
We know with a bell curve all candidates push for the center. They get as close to the center as possible. If your third party pops in there and guns it for the center you will lose. Simple because you will have to be on one side of the center or the other, it is not likely you can find dead center. Which ever side you fall on, you will take just enough votes so that the opposing side wins. This is why the third party is more of a black male party aiming at future elections.

I agree with you about the minimum amount of time this would take.
 

Transcend

My Nuts Are Flat
Apr 18, 2002
18,040
3
Towing the party line.
That is agood point I had not thought of (like i said, just starting on this idea, no research has been done). I think a professor in american poli 305 actually pointed this out one time. Oops. This also explains why nader is such a pain in the ass, which is staring me blankly in the face and i missed it.

i agree about not being dead center, as i already suggested this was a slightly left of center idea, mostly on account of that is the way i personally lean, and would be the easiest image for me to use for the example.

For the actual winning model candidate, i agree with you. Colin for prez.
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,371
7,767
i agree with BS, that sounds like the democratic platform as expressed by a moderate. such people exist within the party.
 

Silver

find me a tampon
Jul 20, 2002
10,840
1
Orange County, CA
The problem with being a moderate in the US is single issue voters. A lot of people vote on one issue, and it wouldn't matter if Hitler and Stalin were on their party's ticket as long as they supported that one issue.
 

Lexx D

Dirty Dozen
Mar 8, 2004
1,480
0
NY
Silver said:
The problem with being a moderate in the US is single issue voters. A lot of people vote on one issue, and it wouldn't matter if Hitler and Stalin were on their party's ticket as long as they supported that one issue.
Like how bush won the south and religious right simply because of homosexuals and abortion.
 

Transcend

My Nuts Are Flat
Apr 18, 2002
18,040
3
Towing the party line.
Toshi said:
i agree with BS, that sounds like the democratic platform as expressed by a moderate. such people exist within the party.
i agree, this is what i said at first. The problem is these moderates loose much support due to the hardliners in the party.
 

Lexx D

Dirty Dozen
Mar 8, 2004
1,480
0
NY
Damn True said:
If you think it's that simple you are deluded.
Yeah but I'm also just a stoned slacker. :think:

To be serious yes it's a big factor. If many religious people tell me they voted for Bush because of his morals and faith(which they have told me) then the abortion and gay issue must be the swaying factor.
He is not a good christian who follows the teachings of his lord jesus christ. From what I've read one of the most important things jesus said was "A new command I give you: Love one another. As I have loved you, so you must love one another. By this all men will know that you are my disciples, if you love one another." by definition that means one another as well as other nations. Also forgive others "For if you forgive men for their transgressions, your heavenly Father will also forgive you. "But if you do not forgive men, then your Father will not forgive your transgressions.". One more for good measure "You have heard that it was said, 'An eye for an eye, and a tooth for a tooth.' "But I say to you, do not resist him who is evil; but whoever slaps you on your right cheek, turn to him the other also."

How does anything GW does show that he is a follower of Christ? No answer, that's because it's the gay and abortion issue.
 

N8 v2.0

Not the sharpest tool in the shed
Oct 18, 2002
11,003
149
The Cleft of Venus
Lexx D said:
Like how bush won the south and religious right simply because of homosexuals and abortion.

Stop blaming gays for your guy losing the election.

Kerry simply sucked, didn't connect with America and lost.
 

Lexx D

Dirty Dozen
Mar 8, 2004
1,480
0
NY
N8 said:
Stop blaming gays for your guy losing the election.

Kerry simply sucked, didn't connect with America and lost.
Your misunderstanding pasty boy. Many voted for bush for what he says, it's a show to win the religious right. I'm not "blaming gays" for anything.
 
Silver said:
The problem with being a moderate in the US is single issue voters. A lot of people vote on one issue, and it wouldn't matter if Hitler and Stalin were on their party's ticket as long as they supported that one issue.

kind of scary really... the similarities between how HITLER came to Power and Bush......

case point, the people the say 'shut up... that is not a patriotic thing to say' regarding dissent

PEOPLE..... DISSENT IS AMERICAN !!!
to be American is to HAVE FREE SPEECH
to have the right to Dissent
to be able to SPEAK OUT and TO PROTEST is what made us AMERICAN

freaky scarey man
 
my blabber from a dumb blog i keep... a paragraph of blather followed by a set of links to 3rd party stuff... I am sure you found these links already

Thursday, October 7, 2004

it is TIME for a THIRD PARTY in POLITICS
http://www.ksg.harvard.edu/3pt/

this Donkey and Elephant thing is killing me... we need an EAGLE

Maybe call it the .... ~ MODERATE AMERICAN Party ~

The focus is Populist, human rights, choice, the american right to good education, the american right to baseline health care, a global right to education as a means to world peace, a global addressing of enviromontal issues and what is right for people... and the planet.... not what is right for corporations... the inalienable right of the PEOPLE not the Corporation. alignment of world politics for the betterment of mankind, starting with strong family values, strong communitys, a sense of colaboration of man and woman for the survival of humanity.....

Harvard has the case study site:
http://www.ksg.harvard.edu/3pt/

google search turns up these links:
=============================================
News results for third party time - View today's top stories
Third party candidates debate issues at Cornell - Newsday - 17 hours ago
Follett writes the third best book of all time - according to the ... - ic Wales - Oct 4, 2004





3PT - Home Page
The Homepage of CAMPAIGN '96: THIRD PARTY TIME, a web-based case study from the
Case Program, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard Univ. ...
www.ksg.harvard.edu/3pt/ - 8k - Cached - Similar pages

Libertarian Party: Home Page
... › Over 600 Libertarians are serving in public office -- more than all other third
parties combined. Click Here for a complete list. ... › First time here? ...
www.lp.org/ - 29k - Oct 5, 2004 - Cached - Similar pages

Politics1 - Guide to American Political Parties
... win back The White House for the people in 2004" -- but the site has shown no updates
in a very long time. Peters is contemplating another third party run for ...
www.politics1.com/parties.htm - 101k - Oct 5, 2004 - Cached - Similar pages

Third parties seen as threat to Bush - The Washington Times ...
... Third parties seen as threat to Bush By Steve Miller THE WASHINGTON TIMES.
Three third-party presidential candidates have ballot ...
www.washingtontimes.com/ national/20040909-115705-2949r.htm - 72k - Oct 5, 2004 - Cached - Similar pages

=============================================

Can we survive in a system where the power takes DEBATE and turns it into for all purpose a politcal ad... what was debated? all the donkey and elephant did was read off rehearsed rhetoric.... WTF would our fore fathers think who dumped tea into the harbor?!

what happened?
2:09 pm mdt
http://home.earthlink.net/~justinthered/outofchaos/2004.10.01_arch.html
 

Transcend

My Nuts Are Flat
Apr 18, 2002
18,040
3
Towing the party line.

Transcend

My Nuts Are Flat
Apr 18, 2002
18,040
3
Towing the party line.
N8 said:
Had to do didn't you?


:p
It's ok, i compared him to a few choice dictators that were also popularly elected yesterday., Truth hurts sometimes, huh?

Actually, as a republican, Bush doesn't know much about the truth I guess anyways. (hell, do any politicians?). Weapons of mass destrcution, fear FEAR FEAR!
 
ncrider said:
what? Even for a Bush hater thats just plan ignorant to say.

* The Third Reich and the Bush family (Prescott Bush - a ...
... Hitler. The direct Bush and Hitler similarity, Bush Hitler similarities. ... Hitler.
The direct Bush and Hitler similarity, Bush Hitler similarities. ...
www.tupbiosystems.com/articles/bush_nazi.html - 20k - Cached - Similar pages

Similarities among Bush, Hitler, Stalin and the GOP
The Public Cause Network Similarities Among Bush, Hitler, Stalin and the GOP
Author Unknown. The material on this web page is reproduced ...
www.thepubliccause.net/ Articles/BushHitlerStalinGOP.html - 44k - Cached - Similar pages

(DV) Jayne: 31 Similarities Between Hitler and Bush
... 31 Similarities Between Hitler and President Bush by Edward Jayne www.dissidentvoice.
org August 29, 2004 (revised from an earlier version posted March 29, 2003 ...
www.dissidentvoice.org/Articles3/Jayne_Hitler-Bush.htm - 31k - Cached - Similar pages

Bush/Hitler Links
... The length of the eerie list of similarities between Hitler and Bush may have more
than a bit of the coincidental about it, but the coincidences themselves are ...
www.falloutshelternews.com/BushHitlerLinks.html - 51k - Cached - Similar pages

Redux on George W. Bush similarities to Adolf Hitler
TruthSeeker24 Redux on George W. Bush similarities to Adolf Hitler Fri Apr 30, 2004
09:31 128.82.253.46 Adolf Hitler=George W. Bush What a new generation ...
www.apfn.net/messageboard/ 05-01-04/discussion.cgi.59.html - 15k - Cached - Similar pages

Fusa : 27 Similarities between Hitler and President Bush ...
Organisation contre l'impérialisme américain. 27 Similarities between Hitler and
President Bush 27/06/2004. 27 Similarities between Hitler and President Bush. ...
fusa2.free.fr/?Rub=Article& Act=Lire&Ent=1&ID=221 - 15k - Cached - Similar pages

ZOT: 27 Similarities Between Hitler and President Bush (barf)
Skip to comments. ZOT: 27 Similarities Between Hitler and President Bush
(barf) truthinaction ^ | Edward Jayne. Posted on 01/04/2004 ...
www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1051438/posts - 52k - Cached - Similar pages

Gott Mit Uns: On Bush and Hitler's Rhetoric
Gott Mit Uns: On Bush and Hitler's Rhetoric. by Bob Fitrakis. ... Both Bush and Hitler
believe that they were chosen by God to lead their nations. ...
www.commondreams.org/views04/0901-03.htm - 16k - Cached - Similar pages

Cruel: Bush = Hitler???
... However, there are certain similarities. Hitler was a Jew-baiting sack of **** racist
intent on world domination. Bush is an Arab-baiting sack of **** racist ...
www.cruel.com/discuss/viewMessage.php/111838 - 5k - Cached - Similar pages

Similarities
... the United States President George W. Bush to Nazi ... been made of someone to Hitler,
average people ... not the only ones making these similarities, scholarly people ...
users.manchester.edu/Student/TAMaple/Similarities.html - 9k - Cached - Similar pages
 

BurlyShirley

Rex Grossman Will Rise Again
Jul 4, 2002
19,180
17
TN
Barba Rosa just entered in the running with Syadisti and Changleen for "most out of touch with reality"

At least Chang kind of has an excuse in that he is actually isolated from the rest of the world...
 

Transcend

My Nuts Are Flat
Apr 18, 2002
18,040
3
Towing the party line.
BurlyShirley said:
Barba Rosa just entered in the running with Syadisti and Changleen for "most out of touch with reality"

At least Chang kind of has an excuse in that he is actually isolated from the rest of the world...
:p

5 character limit
 
BurlyShirley said:
Barba Rosa just entered in the running with Syadisti and Changleen for "most out of touch with reality"

At least Chang kind of has an excuse in that he is actually isolated from the rest of the world...

really? prove it, your reality is what I am supposed to approach similarity to? he who causes the most controversy just may initiate some to think outside the norm
 

BurlyShirley

Rex Grossman Will Rise Again
Jul 4, 2002
19,180
17
TN
BarbaRosa said:
really? prove it, your reality is what I am supposed to approach similarity to? he who causes the most controversy just may initiate some to think outside the norm
You arent causing controversy. You're posting stupid crap. People do it here all the time and all it gets them is laughed at.
 

ohio

The Fresno Kid
Nov 26, 2001
6,649
24
SF, CA
Where is that list of rules that says you automtacially lose an online argument the moment you bring up Hitler?

That list was life.
 
BurlyShirley said:
You arent causing controversy. You're posting stupid crap. People do it here all the time and all it gets them is laughed at.
Oh I see, your crew cut causes your patriot gene to rapid fire if a sitting president is lined up against one of the most netorious nefarious not liked people of all time....

and these kind of stories don't worry you ....

E-Vote Glitch Inflates Bush Total http://wired.com/news/evote/0,2645,65609,00.html?tw=wn_tophead_2
Ohio is the state that put President Bush over the top on Tuesday. But now it appears that an e-voting glitch gave Bush nearly 4,000 extra votes in one Ohio county. There were problems elsewhere, too.

it does not worry or concern you that in mostly democratic preccincts where the majority are poor black folk, that it was alowed to have 'people challenge' the voters?!

it does not worry or concern you that Bush rejects the UN and dissregards other world leaders and anyone who does not side with him directly

what point will the crew cut gene allow the logic gene to speak out?

besides read my tag line chicken choker

:p
 

ncrider

Turbo Monkey
Aug 15, 2004
1,564
0
Los Angeles
BurlyShirley said:
You arent causing controversy. You're posting stupid crap. People do it here all the time and all it gets them is laughed at.
:stupid: I love it when someone can sum it all up short and sweet. It couldn't have been said better.
 

ummbikes

Don't mess with the Santas
Apr 16, 2002
1,794
0
Napavine, Warshington
Transcend said:
care to elaborate? I wouldnt pander to the religious right, or the left. The point is i think it would grab enough o fthe votes that only the extreme right and extreme left voters would vote for the existing 2 parties. everyone else is a moderate anyways.

I think this is a flaw in your plan. You must address the religious factions in America. The religious right is small but the religious moderates (I beleive this the be the majority of religious voters) are a huge block of voters. These voters are lead by a conviction that abortion is wrong and gay marriage is wrong.
 

Transcend

My Nuts Are Flat
Apr 18, 2002
18,040
3
Towing the party line.
ummbikes said:
I think this is a flaw in your plan. You must address the religious factions in America. The religious right is small but the religious moderates (I beleive this the be the majority of religious voters) are a huge block of voters. These voters are lead by a conviction that abortion is wrong and gay marriage is wrong.
That isnt always the case. The religious MODERATES tend to be able to see the light and use common sense. It is the hardline religious zealous (think american version of the taliban) who can't seem to figure out what common sense is.
 

Silver

find me a tampon
Jul 20, 2002
10,840
1
Orange County, CA
Transcend said:
That isnt always the case. The religious MODERATES tend to be able to see the light and use common sense. It is the hardline religious zealous (think american version of the taliban) who can't seem to figure out what common sense is.
Nope. Much like the Islamic moderates we routinely exhort to stop Muslim extremism, the problem is that the moderates (while not fully agreeing with the goals or actions of the extremists) still have sympathy for the end result of the extremists' methods.

So, basically, while the moderates won't picket outside of Matthew Sheppard's funeral with a sign that says "God Hates Fags" or they won't picket an abortion clinic, they don't want a gay couple living on their street, and they don't want abortion to be legal, and they don't want a lesbian teaching in their school.

Are there exceptions? Sure. Are there enough of them for a moderate and viable third party? I'm guessing no.
 
Jun 18, 2004
945
0
I predict a 3rd party won't be winning the next election... in fact they won't win an election until about the same time that a woman is elected Vice or the President, Marijuanna is decriminalized federally, Osama bin Laudin is caught, and Gay Mariage is accepted in all 50 states... this will be followed in short order by Japanese being taught as the primary language in US schools and shortly after Hell will freeze over...
 

Transcend

My Nuts Are Flat
Apr 18, 2002
18,040
3
Towing the party line.
Str8OutaBallard said:
I predict a 3rd party won't be winning the next election... in fact they won't win an election until about the same time that a woman is elected Vice or the President, Marijuanna is decriminalized federally, Osama bin Laudin is caught, and Gay Mariage is accepted in all 50 states... this will be followed in short order by Japanese being taught as the primary language in US schools and shortly after Hell will freeze over...

wait so you mean hillary clinton in the next election?
 

BurlyShirley

Rex Grossman Will Rise Again
Jul 4, 2002
19,180
17
TN
Transcend said:
wait so you mean hillary clinton in the next election?
A unicorn will fly out of my ass before Hillary Clinton is the President of the US. I wish we could come up with some title, like President-ette, or something though just to piss her off if she does win.