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gas at $20/gallon

Superdeft

Monkey
Dec 4, 2003
863
0
East Coast
I think people aren't aware of alternative energy technology that is lying in wait. If oil steadily climbed by 100/barrel each year, we would see alternative tech become profitable. It seems Toshi's original point was that high oil prices would make this tech truly profitable, which would in turn cause the big companies entrenched in their current infrastructure and business models to roll out new methods for old problems in earnest. This would result in more environmentally friendly infrastructure as a side-effect of the new methods.

Most Green-this, eco-that, sustainable-BS etc. is just marketing-speak creating the illusion of environmentally-friendliness while firms conduct 99% of their business the old, dirty, cheap and easy (read: industrial revolution) way. This kind of green-tech is profitable, the prius, those new bulbs, but that's small change when compared to coal plants, 18-wheelers and food production.

In this context, I agree that high oil prices now could just jumpstart the inevitable shift to a more responsible world. Don't think we're giving up our way of life and all moving to cities and growing our own food and living like a bunch of hippies -- Americans and people in general are hardy beings and we're not going to go out like a bunch of chumps because we run out of oil -- when the time comes we're going to get off of our collective ass and do something, but not until oil and food skyrocket out of control. I'm no economist, but it's clear nothing's going to happen until we get a big wake-up call.
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,032
7,553
the big wakeup call is under way!

I said it earlier in the thread, but I'll restate it for loosecannon: I don't think driving an hour each way for commuting or biking is sustainable, and is thus unethical. Move closer and find local riding spots, or your whining when gas does hit $20 will fall on doubly-deaf ears.

:nopity:
 

manimal

Ociffer Tackleberry
Feb 27, 2002
7,212
17
Blindly running into cactus
i'm just glad i head up the bike unit at work because it won't be long before they start restricting our driving at work; ie: no proactive patrols, only responding to emergency calls.....
i can foresee the bike unit playing a much larger role in the near future and i've been trying to get the command to get on board with the idea that if every officer was bike certified and we had a bunch of spare bikes then we could still do proactive, local patrols and not use any gas. i'm just trying to figure out a tactful way to say, "i told you so" when this all makes sense.
 

manimal

Ociffer Tackleberry
Feb 27, 2002
7,212
17
Blindly running into cactus
Like drive to a location with bike on rack, then cycle patrol the area?
in some cases, yes. but the busier areas of the city that require more proactive policing are within riding distance from the PD. i work in the housing projects only and they are all within a 3 mile ride from the PD so we just park at the station and ride to all of the different communities from there. for the most part, our response times for calls for service are about the same or less than via car because we can take the most direct route to an area through the woods/footpath's.
people are also more likely to approach us when we're on bikes than in cars so it's a great community relations tool as well.
 

jimmydean

The Official Meat of Ridemonkey
Sep 10, 2001
40,942
13,135
Portland, OR
Hey Manaimal, check this out:

Westwood Police Are Driving Green

The Borough of Westwood is the first municipality on the East Coast and the second in the United States to use a hybrid vehicle on patrol for its Police Department. From an economic and environmental prospective, in a community that is fully developed, a hybrid Police vehicle makes sense and saves money. Westwood is just such a mature and fully developed community.

The New Jersey Attorney General has issued extremely strict guidelines on Police pursuits. There are exceptions based on circumstances, but such high-speed chases are not an issue in Westwood, which has its share of traffic.
I thought of this when I passed the local PD with a line of Crown Vic's on my bus commute this morning.
 

jimmydean

The Official Meat of Ridemonkey
Sep 10, 2001
40,942
13,135
Portland, OR
Isn't fuel outpacing, but an absurd amount, like 2-3x as much? It's about to trickle through society big time.
If it trickled into my paycheck, I would be a happy bastard.

My food budget has gone up an average of $80 a month and my wifes car was $40 to fill up this weekend. I can't wait to buy her a Honda Fit this summer.
 

stevew

resident influencer
Sep 21, 2001
40,494
9,524
hhhmmmm...my brother and his wife averaged @44 mpg in a driving from Boulder to NC. They rented a Prius.
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,032
7,553
post-memorial day bump for $135/barrel oil, $4/gal regular, $5/gal diesel, slumping pickup sales, and booming bicycle, scooter, and hybrid sales
 

N8 v2.0

Not the sharpest tool in the shed
Oct 18, 2002
11,003
149
The Cleft of Venus
the wife loves the removable top Smart Car.. looks kinda tiny to me.. as in no storage.

Oil price will burst and fall back to $60-$80/barrel this fall/winter.. but the question is for how long.. i suspect spikes in the price at least every couple years from now on.

BTW, Americans had the biggest decline in driving since the on set of WWII; 1942
 

Upgr8r

High Priest or maybe Jedi Master
May 2, 2006
941
0
Ventura, CA
Went to visit my family over the weekend. Gas was $4.09 for regular in Oxnard, CA. It was $4.35 in Soledad, CA (inland from Monterey).

We took the Nissan and got 29 MPG. Sad to say it was cheaper to drive than take the train
 

Silver

find me a tampon
Jul 20, 2002
10,840
1
Orange County, CA
i can foresee the bike unit playing a much larger role in the near future and i've been trying to get the command to get on board with the idea that if every officer was bike certified and we had a bunch of spare bikes then we could still do proactive, local patrols and not use any gas. i'm just trying to figure out a tactful way to say, "i told you so" when this all makes sense.
Also make sure you pitch them on the fitness benefits. Just don't mention to your boss that he's a fat pig who needs to pedal a bike for a couple hours a day...be tactful :)
 

ire

Turbo Monkey
Aug 6, 2007
6,196
4
I rode my bike to work today and made an agreement with myself to only drive to school (which is 45 miles away)
 

jonKranked

Detective Dookie
Nov 10, 2005
85,571
24,186
media blackout
In addition to the gas problem, America also has a problem with idiots. The way I see it, we can kill two birds with one stone. Soilent gas, anyone?
 

jimmydean

The Official Meat of Ridemonkey
Sep 10, 2001
40,942
13,135
Portland, OR
the wife loves the removable top Smart Car.. looks kinda tiny to me.. as in no storage.

Oil price will burst and fall back to $60-$80/barrel this fall/winter.. but the question is for how long.. i suspect spikes in the price at least every couple years from now on.

BTW, Americans had the biggest decline in driving since the on set of WWII; 1942
I bet all my credits that oil never falls bellow $100/barrel.

The Saudis have peaked production, so it's all down hill from here. It might drop a little, but oil production will get increasingly more expensive.
 

Upgr8r

High Priest or maybe Jedi Master
May 2, 2006
941
0
Ventura, CA
I rode my bike to work today and made an agreement with myself to only drive to school (which is 45 miles away)
I've been taking the commuter bus for a couple of months now (50 mile drive from home to work). Since I started the number of riders has doubled, to the point where they are staring to add more buses.

Currently the bus drops me off within walking distance of the office, but we will be moving to a new building so i will be bringing my bike for the last leg from the new bus stop to the new office.

Even if the price of gas comes down, I will still do this as my stress level has dropped because I don't have to deal with traffic
 

N8 v2.0

Not the sharpest tool in the shed
Oct 18, 2002
11,003
149
The Cleft of Venus
I bet all my credits that oil never falls bellow $100/barrel.

The Saudis have peaked production, so it's all down hill from here. It might drop a little, but oil production will get increasingly more expensive.

pretty sure it will be $10's of $'s below $100...

not much has changed over the last 12 months in demand nor supply... but the dollar has gotten weaker with the Fed cutting interest rates and speculators fleeing dollar investments and flocking to commodities like gold and oil. With the Fed reversing itself and looking to raise rates thereby restoring the dollar, and speculators over buying the futures market, look for oil prices to fall.. this fall.

 
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Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,032
7,553
I've been taking the commuter bus for a couple of months now (50 mile drive from home to work). Since I started the number of riders has doubled, to the point where they are staring to add more buses.

Currently the bus drops me off within walking distance of the office, but we will be moving to a new building so i will be bringing my bike for the last leg from the new bus stop to the new office.

Even if the price of gas comes down, I will still do this as my stress level has dropped because I don't have to deal with traffic
i am so with you. even if the commuter bus takes 20-30 min longer than driving straight through, not having to deal with the other idiots on the road or with parking if heading to downtown makes it totally worth it. well, not paying for gas makes it worth it, and the lowered stress is icing on the cake...

:D
 

jimmydean

The Official Meat of Ridemonkey
Sep 10, 2001
40,942
13,135
Portland, OR
Even if the price of gas comes down, I will still do this as my stress level has dropped because I don't have to deal with traffic
I ride the bus about 75% of the time. Riders have doubled over the last 6 months or so, but I get on at the 4th stop, so it's never more than half full.

My bus ride is nearly 90 minutes each way, but I get a lot of reading done and my stress level is 100% lower than if I ride my moto.
 

dan-o

Turbo Monkey
Jun 30, 2004
6,499
2,805
Other than a BBQ outside our 5yo's biking range and my trail rides, both our vehicles stayed parked this weekend. Our goal is to park the vehicles every weekend as long as the weather holds out.
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,032
7,553
cut your commute time to ZERO ....

..and live in your cube.
worked for BAH!

:busted:

i made an idle effort to see if i could live entirely out of the hospital's call rooms for a year, but decided that even trying that would be much too depressing.

 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,032
7,553
it sure didnt jump that much in 12 months... China's increase in consumption is something like 7.5% per year at this time.
what if that increase in consumption came as the saudis are having trouble squeezing out oil cheaply? i won't deny that there's oil to be found but if it's expensive to extract then how again will prices decline in the face of increasing demand?
 

N8 v2.0

Not the sharpest tool in the shed
Oct 18, 2002
11,003
149
The Cleft of Venus
what if that increase in consumption came as the saudis are having trouble squeezing out oil cheaply? i won't deny that there's oil to be found but if it's expensive to extract then how again will prices decline in the face of increasing demand?
a lot of experts say it isnt supply and demand that's forcing the price up
 

JewBagel

Monkey
Apr 22, 2008
229
0
oregon
"BTW, Americans had the biggest decline in driving since the on set of WWII; 1942"
Not 100% sure but I believe the gas crisis in the 70's was a larger decline although I don't doubt as the prices rise this summer, probably to around 4.70 up here, more will drive less. Prices will never fall below 80$/barrel again and I seriously doubt they will fall below 100$ at any time this year although as they become an election issue I would expect them to fall a few extra cents if McCain wins, not enough to make a difference though.

We were spolied with extremely cheap gas in the 90's which is why this seems soo bad. I remember sometime around '99 when it hit $0.92/gal. Inflation considered we are ahead of where we should be but once world demand is considered relative to 30 years ago I think we're not quite there, although quite close. Supply and demand can't be the sole reason for the increase because world oil consumption has not doubled in the last 4 years as prices have in the states.
 

thebornotaku

Monkey
May 19, 2008
359
0
Northern Bay Area
Just as the rise of automobiles saw the expansion of cities and the birth of the suburb, the decline of automobiles will see the contraction of cities and the death of suburbs. Hopefully bicycles catch on. They're phenominal things, really. Zero emissions, Infininite "Miles/Gallon", low upkeep and awesome value. Also, you can go many places on a bicycle that cars can't even dream of. Like Freeride courses and pump tracks. ;)

I live in a small town. I can beat a car to anywhere in a three mile radius. Any farther out and the roads widen and traffic flows better. I can get all the way across town in a half hour.

The cost? A one-time charge of ~$600, as well as some upkeep ($30 maybe). Water for my bottle is typically free, but if it's not, it's about $1.50 to fill it. And that's good for three, four days worth of riding. That's well over 24mi or so (I ride 6mi/day minimum, closer to 10mi/day average).

Funny then, that I'm planning on moving to Davis, CA...
 

JewBagel

Monkey
Apr 22, 2008
229
0
oregon
"Infininite "Miles/Gallon"" actually about 660. In an issue of Bike Maganzine a year or so back there was a short article about a man who rode some long distance along the east coast and approximated his calories burned using a HRM to figure it out. BTW, A gallon of gas is somewhere around 31000 calories.

I really do hope we move towards more compact cities and more alternative transportation. And as cycling becomes more popular it will become easier to convince local politicians to let people build trails near the city.
 

N8 v2.0

Not the sharpest tool in the shed
Oct 18, 2002
11,003
149
The Cleft of Venus
Just as the rise of automobiles saw the expansion of cities and the birth of the suburb, the decline of automobiles will see the contraction of cities and the death of suburbs. Hopefully bicycles catch on. They're phenominal things, really. Zero emissions, Infininite "Miles/Gallon", low upkeep and awesome value. Also, you can go many places on a bicycle that cars can't even dream of. Like Freeride courses and pump tracks. ;)

I live in a small town. I can beat a car to anywhere in a three mile radius. Any farther out and the roads widen and traffic flows better. I can get all the way across town in a half hour.

The cost? A one-time charge of ~$600, as well as some upkeep ($30 maybe). Water for my bottle is typically free, but if it's not, it's about $1.50 to fill it. And that's good for three, four days worth of riding. That's well over 24mi or so (I ride 6mi/day minimum, closer to 10mi/day average).

Funny then, that I'm planning on moving to Davis, CA...

a bit naive... remember all the oil based infrastructure required to feed and suppy a city... not going to haul much cargo on a bike.

The NE has a whole other problem being dependent on heating oil... that sh!t is going to be expensive this winter..!!!