time for a new downhill bike??? went to the lbs and.....

norbar · Jul 13, 2012

tabletop84 said:
If I calculate with the wholesale pricelist I have from fox they probably could have get away with less than 2000€ for the parts alone.

One of the cheapest dh framesets on the market is the nukeproof scalp which you can get for about 1000€ with a vivid off-season.

So I think a frame costs them less than 500€

So I think minus shipping, development, advertising, labour costs etc. they made at least 200€ per bike. That would be 100000€ profit for the 530 bikes they sold and not bad for popularity they gained with the marketing manoeuver. Plus they had over1,5 Million € on their bank account over half a year before they delivered the bike.

What would be an even better concept would be a similar offer without actually delivering the whole bike but just the parts and the frame as a kit. I think minus the additional transport and the money for the assembly company they could produce an even better offer. And people who buy those bikes usually know how to build them anyways.

I love speculation like that. Let's assume what costs companies have and then create artificial margins from there but at the same time lets count only production costs, no taxes, shipping, storage, dealer margin, shop margin, design team salary, marketing costs. It really baffles me because it's the same with people who think if a movie had a budget of $100m and made $200m it made a ton of cash...

Also

tabletop84 said:
no, you are wrong.

The companies not making money and treating them as prestige bikes was actually a quote from one of the bigger firms out there. Though yeah I guess it was a scheme to fool me into not buying their bikes. :tinfoil:

The direct order guys like YT and Canyon probably make some money off dh bikes but the topic is complaining about a Carbon Session 9.9 and a v10c with enve wheels. So why the hell you come out with the cheapest frame you can think off?

It's like someone complained sports cars are getting expensive because of Veyron and Lambos and you claimed he is wrong because you've bought a banging Golf GTI for 30k$ (or whatever it costs in US).

OGRipper · Jul 13, 2012

gemini2k said:
Yes, but economies of SCOPE my friend. Once you have a production line and engineering know-how of making thousands of XC race bikes, making a DH bike isn't THAT hard or expensive. Believe it or not DH bikes use the EXACT same materials (aluminum alloys) as xc bikes, and the EXACT same production techniques as well. They are often even made on the same lines, just with different tubing and welding jigs.

The examples here are carbon. You're not just re-setting a jig.

Again, if it's not that hard, do it.

syadasti · Jul 13, 2012

OGRipper said:
The examples here are carbon. You're not just re-setting a jig.

Again, if it's not that hard, do it.

You're right - BCD did it before everyone else on shoestring budget with extremely small runs in the US at a lower pricepoint. Thanks for proving our point.

norbar · Jul 13, 2012

ALEXIS_DH said:
the whole "if it isnt so hard, do it" argument is retarded.
many companies around the world can sell you a much much more advance machine that can, not only outperform a bicycle, but they can slap an engine to it, put ABS in the brakes, that can run for many many thousands of miles and not need service every 5 hours of use. and sell it for less money and still be a more profitable enterprise.
hell!, there are companies than can even put 2 additional tires, seats and 2 airbags and give you a 10 year warranty... and still charge you less.

You are still comparing top of the line dh bikes to not top of the line motor bikes. Your argument is invalid. It's like claiming watches are more expensive than cars because you saw a patek. BMW HP2 is kinda the equivalent of the bikes you mentioned and even in a bigger market, with more units produced it is still 2x more expensive.

I also vaguly remember DW or some other bike engineering guru claiming some parts of mtb tech is above motorbike so the "I get moar gizmoz durr" argument works both ways.

profro · Jul 13, 2012

If you have easy access to moto riding, DH doesn't make any sense to do...at all. That's the sheer reality of it. The price per unit time that it takes to be on the bike is just awful in comparison.

I came to this realization in the last couple of years. I loved DH. I had been doing it competitively since 2004 and accomplished a lot of things. But here lately the amount of time I put in was just not worth the return any more. I was easily spending way more time building, maintaining, and driving a shuttle truck than I was on the bike. It just didn't make sense any longer.

With moto I can go ride 2 tracks within a hour's drive and probably have 300+ miles of trail within riding distance from my house. When I say riding distance, I mean hop on my plated KTM and ride there.

In DH I had maybe 4 options within a 6hr drive. Moto options in the same distance? Its simply not calculable.

Some one asked earlier what a top of the line moto cost. The 2012 KTM Dungey Replica is $9500. I think a standard KTM 450sx is $8500ish. A brand new 2012 250sx 2-stroke is $6900. Since I got my 250sx on May 17th I have 20hrs of engine on time. I wonder how long it would take for the average guy, not living at Whistler, to get 20hrs of wheel turning time on a DH bike? By the way I have a few more hours in there on my KTM 530xcw as well.

OGRipper · Jul 13, 2012

Alexis_DH, you can call it retarded if you want, but seriously, if you think you can turn a consistent profit producing top-level DH bikes for less than the stuff currently on the market, it is retarded to ignore this great opportunity. Why don't you go for it and prove us wrong?

And I have much respect for BCD, but using him as an example is ridiculous. We are talking about production bikes that turn a profit. What's his total production output for paying customers? Why isn't he selling tons of bikes?

syadasti · Jul 13, 2012

OGRipper said:
And I have much respect for BCD, but using him as an example is ridiculous. We are talking about production bikes that turn a profit. What's his total production output for paying customers? Why isn't he selling tons of bikes?

An outlier is not ridiculous, its the most informative data point. He was too far ahead of the curve which often happens for innovators in industry. Nobody thought carbon fiber was viable for gravity use then. He also built wagon wheel bikes years before everyone else started making aggressive use models too.

You can't ignore the high volume/gravy of the industry which cost more than the DH segment and sells far more units - XC and road bikes. Or standardized parts which are used across segments. Marketing and the gullible mass who ate it up have taken us to these overpriced extremes. Things used to be made in smaller runs in first world countries like the US, Italy, etc and yet they were significantly cheaper...

profro · Jul 13, 2012

Maybe the bike industry does a poor job of scaling themselves?

For example look at Sram's lineup. I counted 15 different rear derailleurs just for mtb? Not to mention 44 different mtb forks.

By comparison motorcycle manufactures seem to do a much better job of reducing the number of options and sharing commonality between models.

Kanye West · Jul 13, 2012

What could bring the prices down dramatically is consolidation of the whole componentry of the assembly under one roof. Giant, Specialized, and Trek could do this. And do some degree, they already do. Maybe they're just clearing a profit margin that is insane but keeping the prices at what the market will bear...and maybe that's why they're bigger and more profitable companies than everyone else.

Make the hubs, bars, seat, post, rims/spokes, drivetrain all in-house. Source in the suspension and the brakes and the tires. That's where motos are at, and I have a feeling that probably contributes a lot to their pricepoint. I bet their pricing structure would be a LOT different if they were sourcing every piece of the bike except the swingarm and main frame from outside vendors.

OGRipper · Jul 13, 2012

syadasti said:
An outlier is not ridiculous, its the most informative data point. He was too far ahead of the curve which often happens for innovators in industry. Nobody thought carbon fiber was viable for gravity use then. He also built wagon wheel bikes years before everyone else started making aggressive use models too.

Alex can make bikes in his garage so Trek should sell you a Session for $2K? Seriously?

Again, much respect to BCD, and I agree that he was an innovator. What does that have to do with how much a high-end production bike should cost? What's your (data) point?

The market has now caught up to his ideas. If what you are saying is true, he or someone like him should now be able to sell a bunch of bikes for less than the competition and still keep the lights on. Where are they? If it's as simple as you say, this is a huge opportunity.

dan-o · Jul 13, 2012

syadasti said:
An outlier is not ridiculous, its the most informative data point.

My 9yo son has caught 17 striped bass over 30" this week, in about 12 hours of fishing time and within 2 miles of our home port north of boston. We didn't keep track of the ones under the limit but they exceeded the 'keepers' (which he returned to the sea, save the three we ate).

By your logic, the restrictions on striped bass should be lifted because there is clearly no shortage of mature specimens in the wild.

syadasti · Jul 13, 2012

dan-o said:
My 9yo son has caught 17 striped bass over 30" this week, in about 12 hours of fishing time. We didn't keep track of the ones under the limit but they exceeded the 'keepers' (which he returned to the sea, save the three we ate).

By your logic, the restrictions on striped bass should be lifted because there is clearly no shortage of mature specimens in the wild.

That's not what I said. You'd fail stats if you think outliers have no value.

syadasti · Jul 13, 2012

OGRipper said:
The market has now caught up to his ideas. If what you are saying is true, he or someone like him should now be able to sell a bunch of bikes for less than the competition and still keep the lights on. Where are they? If it's as simple as you say, this is a huge opportunity.

Its even harder become a motorcycle or automobile manufacturer so the barriers to entry don't prove your point or confirm industry efficiency.

gemini2k · Jul 13, 2012

OGRipper said:
The examples here are carbon. You're not just re-setting a jig.

Again, if it's not that hard, do it.

Sorry, I prefer to work on real engineering stuff.

dan-o · Jul 13, 2012

syadasti said:
That's not what I said. You'd fail stats if you think outliers have no value.

I probably did fail statistics but you said an outlier is 'the most informative data point' not that they merely have value.

If 10 different bikes supplied OE with Fox 40's retail for $8k, the fact that YT sells a bike with a 40 as a promotional loss-leader is irrelevant to the value of the other 10.

Yes, it can be done but it's not sustainable as evidenced by the limited run, pre-pay method of distribution.
If they consistently offer comparably spec'd bikes for 1/3 the cost of the other 10 it would carry some weight.

syadasti · Jul 13, 2012

Stay on topic. The outlier was BCD. OGRipper said carbon is different and if its not hard someone would do it. A visionary was able to do carbon cheap even in an inefficient homebrew operation. You are telling me the big players can't at least match him when a technology becomes mainstream and mass produced?

benny_mech · Jul 13, 2012

One point I haven't seen mentioned yet is the sheer number of manufacturers of high end bicycles. Each and every one of them has to R&D, build tooling, logistics, etc. When talking economies of scale, I think it's more useful to look at units per manufacturer per year, rather than total units per year. There are more companies like Moots, Knolly, Brodie, etc. than there are like Honda and Yamaha.

Edit: By the way, I'm not hating on either sport or market. Bottom line; if people didn't buy it, the $hit wouldn't be for sale. It's only as expensive as YOU make it.

Kanye West · Jul 13, 2012

benny_mech said:
One point I haven't seen mentioned yet is the sheer number of manufacturers of high end bicycles. Each and every one of them has to R&D, build tooling, logistics, etc. When talking economies of scale, I think it's more useful to look at units per manufacturer per year, rather than total units per year. There are more companies like Moots, Knolly, Brodie, etc. than there are like Honda and Yamaha.

Edit: By the way, I'm not hating on either sport or market. Bottom line; if people didn't buy it, the $hit wouldn't be for sale. It's only as expensive as YOU make it.

Counterpoint: There are a LOT of boutique motorcycle manufacturers as well. Companies like GasGas, Beta, Aprillia, TM, Ossa, Maico (these days), and the list goes on and on. They still sell their comparable motorcycles at a similar pricepoint to the big players - maybe 10-15% higher, but you're usually getting a better parts spec with them too as far as suspension/brakes/wheels. So, to the consumer, real similar in price.

OGRipper · Jul 13, 2012

syadasti said:
Stay on topic. The outlier was BCD. OGRipper said carbon is different and if its not hard someone would do it. A visionary was able to do carbon cheap even in an inefficient homebrew operation. You are telling me the big players can't at least match him when a technology becomes mainstream and mass produced?

Let me ask again: If BCD's model proves your point, it must be a thriving and profitable business. Is that the case? How much does a production BCD carbon downhill frame cost?

marshalolson · Jul 13, 2012

syadasti said:
Stay on topic. The outlier was BCD.

also remember a few things:

BCD's were $2000, but 7-8 years ago. that is $2500 in 2012 money (inflation)
you got a $200 fox vanilla not a $650 CCDB

so if you factor in inflation and additional cost of goods included, a BCD today, with today's shocks would be $2950

also remember BCD never made a nickel, went out of business pretty quick, and while i love the one that i passed on to my brother, the fit and finish of that thing was not exactly in-line with a modern SC or TREK.

tabletop84 · Jul 13, 2012

Dogboy said:
Assuming your calculations are correct, that's a 6.7% profit margin on each bike before all the other expenses you mention - shipping, development, advertising, etc. I think it's probably even less than that, but either way it is a completely unrealistic, unsustainable profit margin for a company to operate on. As you say, the LTD is a marketing manuever plain and simple. You shouldn't use it as a basis in any way for what a comparably spec'd DH bike should cost because most bike companies are trying to achieve a much more realistic (not exorbitant) profit structure.

You're mixing things up. YT made profit with those bikes, if you're believe it or not. My point is that prices are becoming more and more bloated. No, not just of dh bikes but especially for aftermarket parts and all that jazz. The Ltd and of course there other bikes which cost a fragment of an alloy session are just examples therefore.

It's clear that trek cannot directly compete with their prices simply because they are a much bigger company and follow a different distribution strategy but they don't have to, at least for now.

profro said:
Maybe the bike industry does a poor job of scaling themselves?

For example look at Sram's lineup. I counted 15 different rear derailleurs just for mtb? Not to mention 44 different mtb forks.

By comparison motorcycle manufactures seem to do a much better job of reducing the number of options and sharing commonality between models.

The standards and increasing product hierarchies are a way to increase profit.

norbar said:
The direct order guys like YT and Canyon probably make some money off dh bikes but the topic is complaining about a Carbon Session 9.9 and a v10c with enve wheels. So why the hell you come out with the cheapest frame you can think off?

What if they make a carbon frame next year?

syadasti said:
An outlier is not ridiculous, its the most informative data point. He was too far ahead of the curve which often happens for innovators in industry. Nobody thought carbon fiber was viable for gravity use then. He also built wagon wheel bikes years before everyone else started making aggressive use models too.

You can't ignore the high volume/gravy of the industry which cost more than the DH segment and sells far more units - XC and road bikes. Or standardized parts which are used across segments. Marketing and the gullible mass who ate it up have taken us to these overpriced extremes. Things used to be made in smaller runs in first world countries like the US, Italy, etc and yet they were significantly cheaper...

/thread

syadasti · Jul 13, 2012

OGRipper said:
Let me ask again: If BCD's model proves your point, it must be a thriving and profitable business. Is that the case? How much does a production BCD carbon downhill frame cost?

Having a visionary product doesn't mean you'll have a viable market to sell it in. It has happened throughout history with auto, computer, and other companies.

When there is mass adoption in a well run industry, technology trickles downward not upward. Low volume cutting edge products and prototypes cost more (like BCD), not less than mass produced ones and typically the small companies that make them come and go all the time, its nothing new...

kazlx · Jul 13, 2012

syadasti said:
Stay on topic. The outlier was BCD. OGRipper said carbon is different and if its not hard someone would do it. A visionary was able to do carbon cheap even in an inefficient homebrew operation. You are telling me the big players can't at least match him when a technology becomes mainstream and mass produced?

Homebrew will always be cheaper. Who are you paying to work for you? Nobody. What does your rent cost? Nothing that you aren't already paying for to live there. How many frames can he lay up? Maybe a couple a weekend if he hustles. Does anyone care if he wants to work for $5/hr? Not a damn person. But heaven forbid a company spends money to produce them and recoups their cost + profit. Companies don't operate just for fun. If nobody bought them, they would make them cheaper or stop selling them.

syadasti · Jul 13, 2012

kazlx said:
Homebrew will always be cheaper. Who are you paying to work for you? Nobody. What does your rent cost? Nothing that you aren't already paying for to live there. How many frames can he lay up? Maybe a couple a weekend if he hustles. But heaven forbid a company spends money to produce them and recoups their cost + profit. Companies don't operate just for fun. If nobody bought them, they would make them cheaper or stop selling them.

Actually a custom car or motorcycle costs more than mass produced one. Its a small business working on a handful of projects just like a small bicycle manufacturer. The end products will cost more and small business like that fail all the time - they don't have the efficiencies the large business have to make a better product in larger numbers at significantly lower price.

kazlx · Jul 13, 2012

syadasti said:
Actually a custom car or motorcycle cost more than mass produced one. Its a small business working on a handful of projects just like a small bicycle manufacturer...

Not even close to even being in the same league...or even the same sport.

FWIW....I didn't know really what the BCD was. I looked it up and it looks like crap...at least the photos I saw. Fine for a proto, but the frames I saw were in no way meant to be sold to the public.

syadasti · Jul 13, 2012

kazlx said:
FWIW....I didn't know really what the BCD was. I looked it up and it looks like crap. Fine for a proto, but the frames I saw were in no way meant to be sold to the public.

Again, exactly like one-off custom cars and motorcycles...

kazlx · Jul 13, 2012

syadasti said:
Again, exactly like one-off custom cars and motorcycles...

Um...no.

syadasti · Jul 13, 2012

kazlx said:
Um...no.

You've obviously never seen one in person then...

kazlx · Jul 13, 2012

syadasti said:
You've obviously never seen one in person then...

Seen plenty of them in person. Try building one in a day like you could with a bicycle and get back to me.

Just like anything...there are plenty of talent-less hacks that shouldn't be paid to decorate a cake never mind build a car or bike.

syadasti · Jul 13, 2012

Also low volume and custom hardtail/rigid bicycles cost more than mass produced models again underscoring that larger batches lowers costs. What your are suggesting makes so sense at all...

kazlx · Jul 13, 2012

Also proving that people pay what bikes are worth because that's what the market supports...so apparently a V10C is worth 10K.

syadasti · Jul 13, 2012

Another example which proves they are ripping consumers off.

Kestrel's top of the line, first of its kind (in the world), US made very low volume 4000 road bike in 1986 cost $3600 retail. Their current Chinese mass produced top of the line 4000 costs over $10K. They've been around for 25 years now and yet with inflation that should be around $6500 (ignoring outsourcing, mass production, and all other improvements since then)

Kestrel's 1988 MX-Z carbon MTB (the prototype prior was full-suspension)

dan-o · Jul 13, 2012

syadasti said:
Another example which proves they are ripping consumers off.

Meanwhile you're trying to sell a 3+ year old bike, built at a facility that ceased bicycle fabrication due to their inability to turn a profit, for the outrageous sum of $2700 (oops, make that $2699......clever marketing).

kazlx · Jul 13, 2012

dan-o said:
Meanwhile you're trying to sell a 3+ year old bike, built at a facility that ceased bicycle fabrication due to their inability to turn a profit, for the outrageous sum of $2700 (oops, make that $2699......clever marketing).

That's just ridiculous. How dare he. I could go buy a used CRF450R for that. Maybe I'll just stop riding bikes entirely now.

syadasti · Jul 13, 2012

dan-o said:
Meanwhile you're trying to sell a 3+ year old bike, built at a facility that ceased bicycle fabrication due to their inability to turn a profit, for the outrageous sum of $2700 (oops, make that $2699......clever marketing).

You do know what on-topic means, right - how old are you? A new 5Spot frame-only retails for $2495 (same as it did 3 years ago), and the bike is exactly as described with various brand new parts including a brand new fork and lower link kit.

kazlx · Jul 13, 2012

But you could buy a brand new carbon V10 frame for $3298. Doesn't seem like that good of a deal to me.

tabletop84 · Jul 13, 2012

I'd rather buy a whole bike and ride a week in the alps for that.

kazlx · Jul 13, 2012

And some people would rather have a V10c to ride for a couple years. What's your point?

time for a new downhill bike??? went to the lbs and.....

KESSLER PROBLEM. Just cause

back alley ripper

Tirelessly Awesome

i heart mac

KESSLER PROBLEM. Just cause

Turbo Monkey

back alley ripper

i heart mac

Turbo Monkey

220# bag of hacktastic

back alley ripper

Turbo Monkey

i heart mac

i heart mac

Turbo Monkey

Turbo Monkey

i heart mac

Chimp

220# bag of hacktastic

back alley ripper

Turbo Monkey

Monkey

i heart mac

Patches O'Houlihan

i heart mac

Patches O'Houlihan

i heart mac

Patches O'Houlihan

i heart mac

Patches O'Houlihan

i heart mac

Patches O'Houlihan

Tirelessly Awesome

i heart mac

Turbo Monkey

Patches O'Houlihan

i heart mac

Patches O'Houlihan

Monkey

Patches O'Houlihan