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Jm_

sled dog's bollocks
Jan 14, 2002
18,855
9,560
AK
When I come down with a viral, I go into full on "give my body the best fighting chance"-mode. Drug it up with the right drugs, drink tons of water to stay hydrated, get as much sleep as you can, treat the symptoms it's safe to treat, etc. Usually takes a few weeks to run the course, but usually a week to get to the return point. I think that's the point at which if I wasn't getting better in the next few days that I'd start to worry.
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,037
7,555

"The discovery of multiple lineages of pangolin coronavirus and their similarity to SARS-CoV-2 suggests that pangolins should be considered as possible hosts in the emergence of novel coronaviruses"
 

6thElement

Schrodinger's Immigrant
Jul 29, 2008
15,828
13,070
O2 sensor on my phone has been my constant companion for the last two weeks.

Hope you've got a good stock of IRN BRU @Gary
 

mandown

Poopdeck Repost
Jun 1, 2004
20,134
7,681
Transylvania 90210

"The discovery of multiple lineages of pangolin coronavirus and their similarity to SARS-CoV-2 suggests that pangolins should be considered as possible hosts in the emergence of novel coronaviruses"
But they’re so delicious.
 

rideit

Bob the Builder
Aug 24, 2004
23,067
11,304
In the cleavage of the Tetons
Interesting. Idaho and Utah have said they won’t take our cases if we run out of beds, this is a first.
looks like town is completely shutting down tomorrow.
I wonder if that means cycling...


in an interesting turn of events, Idaho and Utah said they won‘t take any of our cases, we are on our own. With, like, two ventilators. Seems like there should be some hippocratic oath contingency, or something...but I can’t really blame them. Damn uppity shits from JH.
 
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Westy

the teste
Nov 22, 2002
54,241
20,025
Sleazattle
Interesting. Idaho and Utah have said they won’t take our cases if we run out of beds, this is a first.
looks like town is completely shutting down tomorrow.
I wonder if that means cycling...


Reminds me of this rather good read

 

Jm_

sled dog's bollocks
Jan 14, 2002
18,855
9,560
AK
Statewide travel ban went into effect tonight, can't travel outside of the "community".
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,037
7,555
Some lib nerd shit. We fucked for a while

Their modeling site that lets one pick the state is very useful:


WA borderline. CO should be ok as should CA. LA not so much. NY very bad.
@Westy your thoughts on my brief take on their methods would be appreciated:

http://www.healthdata.org/sites/default/files/files/research_articles/2020/COVID-forecasting-03252020_4.pdf

A covariate of days with expected exponential growth in the cumulative death rate was created
using information on the number of days after the death rate exceeded 0.31 per million to the day
when 4 different social distancing measures were mandated by local and national government:
school closures, non-essential business closures including bars and restaurants, stay-at-home
Preprint submitted to MedRxiv 03.25.2020 - tracking ID MEDRXIV/2020/043752
recommendations, and travel restrictions including public transport closures. Days with 1
measure were counted as 0.67 equivalents, days with 2 measures as 0.334 equivalents and with 3
or 4 measures as 0. For states that have not yet implemented all of the closure measures, we
assumed that the remaining measures will be put in place within 1 week. This lag between
reaching a threshold death rate and implementing more aggressive social distancing was
combined with the observed period of exponential growth in the cumulative death rate seen in
Wuhan after Level 4 social distancing was implemented, adjusted for the median time from
incidence to death. For ease of interpretation of statistical coefficients, this covariate was
normalized so the value for Wuhan was 1.
My interpretation of this: They took Wuhan as a baseline. If a given state implemented all social distancing regimes then they didn't add on any extra time from baseline to peak, as it were. If they did half measures they added on extra fractional days.

Definition of social distancing: school closures, non-essential business closures including bars and restaurants, stay-at-home. States/subregions (WA modeled as Kirkland, rest of King/Pierce, rest of state) w/all 3 get no penalty days for modeled baseline to peak wrt Wuhan.

Implement less than 3 measures, get fractional extra days from baseline to peak added. Implement none and the model assumes that they will be implemented within a week.

So at a crude level this is actually similar to my super-simplistic "match a logistic curve to Wuhan timeline" "model": https://twitter.com/maximumcharacte/status/1243253840389914624

The key assumption here is that the underhood features of the Chinese intervention that reduced R0 to less than 1 in Wuhan will be replicated in all US states that social distance.

I am not sure this will be true.

If this assumption does not hold to be true the observed peaks may be higher than their model.
 
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stoney

Part of the unwashed, middle-American horde
Jul 26, 2006
21,521
7,074
Colorado
Just talked to the Dad after telling him that we both have it. Was talking about hydrowhateverthefuck and how Dr's are hoarding it again. Fucking fox.
 

6thElement

Schrodinger's Immigrant
Jul 29, 2008
15,828
13,070
Just talked to the Dad after telling him that we both have it. Was talking about hydrowhateverthefuck and how Dr's are hoarding it again. Fucking fox.
Sorry stoney, but I can't shake head smiley enough :(
 

stoney

Part of the unwashed, middle-American horde
Jul 26, 2006
21,521
7,074
Colorado
Sorry stoney, but I can't shake head smiley enough :(
I just really hope they don't get it. My parents are denying it because fucking Fox and Cheeto Jesus. MIL2 because she refuses to miss her only daughter's wedding. At least MIL1 is finally listening and wants the medical-grade wipes I have and will take the n95 masks I found. She is on lock-down until probably a month out when I can drive out to CA to get her.
 

6thElement

Schrodinger's Immigrant
Jul 29, 2008
15,828
13,070
I just really hope they don't get it. My parents are denying it because fucking Fox and Cheeto Jesus. MIL2 because she refuses to miss her only daughter's wedding. At least MIL1 is finally listening and wants the medical-grade wipes I have and will take the n95 masks I found. She is on lock-down until probably a month out when I can drive out to CA to get her.
This should all be over by next week, apparently mango has called A-Rod for advise on how to handle the pandemic.
 

Nick

My name is Nick
Sep 21, 2001
23,929
14,454
where the trails are
Shit is real.

Stay indoors

Truth.

take care of yourself, like others here say have a plan, and make sure people can get to you.
On that last point; I had a friend go through a critical event years ago, the last thing the 911 operator told him before he passed out was "go unlock your door, ambulance is on the way...".