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‘Scientific’ view forecasts a big Bush win

Slugman

Frankenbike
Apr 29, 2004
4,024
0
Miami, FL
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5343911

Updated: 3:09 p.m. ET July 01, 2004

WASHINGTON - Polls may show the presidential race in a dead heat, but for a small band of academics who use scientific formulas to predict elections, President Bush is on his way to a sizable win.

That’s the conclusion of a handful of political scientists who, with mixed results, have honed the art of election forecasting by devising elaborate mathematical formulas based on key measures of the nation’s economic health and the public’s political views.

Most of these academics are predicting Bush, bolstered by robust economic growth, will win between 53 and 58 percent of the votes cast for him and his Democratic opponent John Kerry.

Their track record for calling election outcomes months in advance has often been surprisingly accurate. In 1988, the models projected Bush’s father, former President George Bush, would win even though Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis enjoyed a double digit poll leads that summer.

And in 1996, one model came within a tenth of a percentage point of Clinton’s actual vote share.

“You can look at certain fundamental indicators and anticipate how the campaign will play out,” said James Campbell, a professor at the State University of New York at Buffalo.


:nope: There is no god! :stosh:
 

LordOpie

MOTHER HEN
Oct 17, 2002
21,022
3
Denver
That’s the conclusion of a handful of political scientists who, with mixed results, have honed the art of election forecasting by devising elaborate mathematical formulas blah blah fvcking blah...
In other words, we had space to fill so we tossed this garbage in. Sorry, but mixed results = nada.
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,029
7,549
"And in 1996, one model came within ..."

sounds like shooting darts to me :D
 

Slugman

Frankenbike
Apr 29, 2004
4,024
0
Miami, FL
Read the full article... the 'mixed results' are blamed on Gore losing.

Then again, Did he???? (stir, stir, stir) :evil:
 

N8 v2.0

Not the sharpest tool in the shed
Oct 18, 2002
11,003
149
The Cleft of Venus
No suprise. Analysis of every state's Electorial College votes has been prediciting the same for several months...




...but don't get your panties in a wad just yet... predictions are often wrong.
 

BurlyShirley

Rex Grossman Will Rise Again
Jul 4, 2002
19,180
17
TN
LordOpie said:
so the personal lubricant is working out for you then?
;) I got broken up with yesterday before I had a chance to disappear on her. She got grossed out. :p

So yes and no.
 

Lexx D

Dirty Dozen
Mar 8, 2004
1,480
0
NY
BurlySurly said:
;) I got broken up with yesterday before I had a chance to disappear on her. She got grossed out. :p

So yes and no.
goes to show ya, no matter how big the tub of ky sometimes you strike out :think: I think that's a saying. :D
 

BurlyShirley

Rex Grossman Will Rise Again
Jul 4, 2002
19,180
17
TN
Lexx D said:
goes to show ya, no matter how big the tub of ky sometimes you strike out :think: I think that's a saying. :D

Well, i didnt strike out, I just couldnt get to 5th base :sneaky:
 

LordOpie

MOTHER HEN
Oct 17, 2002
21,022
3
Denver
BurlySurly said:
Well, i didnt strike out, I just couldnt get to 5th base :sneaky:
wait! Did you try to steal 5th base?? :eek: Women do NOT like a hard slide into 5th base. Well, most don't.
 

BurlyShirley

Rex Grossman Will Rise Again
Jul 4, 2002
19,180
17
TN
LordOpie said:
wait! Did you try to steal 5th base?? :eek: Women do NOT like a hard slide into 5th base. Well, most don't.
true. all her base did NOT belong to me.
 

ALEXIS_DH

Tirelessly Awesome
Jan 30, 2003
6,147
796
Lima, Peru, Peru
Slugman said:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5343911

...
Most of these academics are predicting Bush, bolstered by robust economic growth, will win

...
And in 1996, one model came within a tenth of a percentage point of Clinton’s actual vote share.


:nope: There is no god! :stosh:


lol. robust economic growth???, and "one model came within...".

hmm, that means they have more than one model. what makes the one saying bush would get 58% more interesting than the others???

btw, what kind of scientists-faculty are these?
mathematicians? polical scientists? ecomomics faculty?? phys ed faculty???
 

N8 v2.0

Not the sharpest tool in the shed
Oct 18, 2002
11,003
149
The Cleft of Venus
ALEXIS_DH said:
lol. robust economic growth???, and "one model came within...".

hmm, that means they have more than one model. what makes the one saying bush would get 58% more interesting than the others???

btw, what kind of scientists-faculty are these?
mathematicians? polical scientists? ecomomics faculty?? phys ed faculty???

Peru is calling you on line 2.... better not miss it...