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2018 predictions thread

'size

'size

Turbo Monkey
May 30, 2007
2,000
338
AZ
we done this before?

so what are your tech & industry, not rider or team predictions for 2018?

will electronic suspension finally make its real real world debut? will a new tire/rim system come to life? will coil suspension aimed at the lighter weight trailduro category make a comeback? will more direct bike sales turn bike shops into service centers with consumables and clothing being the only items for sale? will 26 make its way back when companies realize they can sell you a smaller thing for the same price as a larger thing? will e-mtb racing category's be introduced? will michelin make a true DH WR2 tire? will someone tell me why I can't recall gee or brendan complaining about equipment or race tracks over the last year? why could I not even taste those last 2 shots of whiskey? will someone post a fuck marry kill thread for the top 3 WC spots after each race? will redbull replace on track cameras with racer tracking drones? will I finally commit to training my cats to be trail cats? spoke innovation, where is it? will I be able to have mips implanted between my brain and skull? shit I lost my train of thought.

what see you?
 
Gary

Gary

my pronouns are hag/gis
Aug 27, 2002
8,493
6,379
UK
Sorry. @'size I simply can't take you seriously or read any of your posts in anything but Welsh while you have that avitar.
You've even taken the bold step of using the incoherent, word spew, grammar lacking style of paragraph writing so prevalent in Dirt.

This should be funny. Sadly. It's really not.
 
'size

'size

Turbo Monkey
May 30, 2007
2,000
338
AZ
Gary said:
Sorry. @'size I simply can't take you seriously or read any of your posts in anything but Welsh while you have that avitar.
You've even taken the bold step of using the incoherent, word spew, grammar lacking style of paragraph writing so prevalent in Dirt.

This should be funny. Sadly. It's really not.
Click to expand...
it's your own damn fault Gary.
 
boogenman

boogenman

Turbo Monkey
Nov 3, 2004
4,385
1,064
BUFFALO
Shops will still be selling a lot of bikes. The years I spent working in shops 80% of the bikes we sold were to people just looking for something a little nicer than Walmart bikes.
I do think that people like us will be buying direct unless there is a relationship with a shop that offers a bro deal.
Coil will make a comeback.
More new standards will pop up for sure.
 
atrokz

atrokz

Turbo Monkey
Mar 14, 2002
1,552
77
teedotohdot
2018:

UCI DH: multiple teams will try out 29" wheels. Multiple riders wont suit them and will revert back, again. Warner will talk nonsense. Redbull player will still suck for most. Gwin will win on whatever he rides and Greg will retire with a winless season and multiple broken carbon wheels. Rachel wins series and retires. DH racing will be as usual in terms of meh courses and locations, but still have the fastest riders and still be the best for home viewing of any cycling sport. period.

UCI XC: PB will continue trying to sell it as an exciting sport. It will remain one of the most boring sports to watch, barring golf. Nino will win and some women from eastern Europe will also win. Nobody outside of the 'industry' will care because road decides the fittest cyclist and DH decides the fastest and XC proves neither of those things and nobody actually cares.

EWS: Will be billed as the most exciting racing on the most exciting tracks and nobody will care because we can't even watch it live and the format sucks for viewership. Sam will do ok but be bested by a younger rider. Wheelsize will still be a debate but results will prove, again, little difference. PB will act like it's the most exciting thing since the sun was born. It will remain just 'highlight' reels and zero actual coverage.

Industry: will come up with more bullshit to sell and change more standards for 'progression'. SRAM will introduce wireless shifting, something nobody wants or asked for. SRAM will continue to make shitty shock and fork internals and reviewers will act like the dials do anything at all, which we all know they don't. FOX will continue it's downward spiral to make the most complicated air fork in the universe with as many seals as possible. Shimano will continue to produce product 2 years too late. Trek, Specialized, and Giant will continue with making bullshit that costs more than boutique frame makers and dentists will rejoice.

E-Bikes: will still suck donkey balls and will still get you scorn and looks of disgust at the trail head. Nobody will care about e-bikes on roads. The only place they belong.

Electronic suspension will be out more in force. And everyone running it will have it setup all wrong then chip on forums about how great it is over the normal shock they setup wrong.

Media: will still be industry shills.

Someone somewhere will say "22% improvement in stiffness" or "2 seconds faster on a 2 minute course" with zero support to back it up.
 
atrokz

atrokz

Turbo Monkey
Mar 14, 2002
1,552
77
teedotohdot
Oh, how could I forget freeride.

Freeride: Rampage still exists and people still huck off cliffs and the hosts still talk nonsense. Someone gets 2nd for having the perfect run. Someone gets 1st for a bunch of dead sailors and one huge trick, probably cam zink or his "best friend" kyle.

Slopestyle: people spin some more, and semen-uck makes another edit where he looks sad and does some more spins and flips that bmx people did 20 years ago and PB goes nuts about how the 'level has been raised'.
 
'size

'size

Turbo Monkey
May 30, 2007
2,000
338
AZ
atrokz said:
2018: SRAM will introduce wireless shifting...
Click to expand...
how could i have overlooked this. yes. a rear only wireless shifter/mech as an 'upgrade' to the rest of the already existing eagle hardware. it will cost more than the entire current eagle system.
 
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atrokz

atrokz

Turbo Monkey
Mar 14, 2002
1,552
77
teedotohdot
'size said:
how could i have overlooked this. yes. a rear only wireless shifter/mech as an 'upgrade' to the rest of the already existing eagle hardware. it will cost more than the entire current agle system.
Click to expand...
And be hackable with a cell phone or $100 signal jammer.....
 
Gary

Gary

my pronouns are hag/gis
Aug 27, 2002
8,493
6,379
UK
atrokz said:
Nobody will care about e-bikes on roads. The only place they belong.
Click to expand...
NEWSFLASH: Nobody cares about E-bikes outside of the US. Sort out your outdoor rule book and you won't either.
 
Gary

Gary

my pronouns are hag/gis
Aug 27, 2002
8,493
6,379
UK
haha... Sorry for making assumtions.

Honestly wouldn't have expected Canada to have such stupid outdoors rules though.
 
atrokz

atrokz

Turbo Monkey
Mar 14, 2002
1,552
77
teedotohdot
Gary said:
haha... Sorry for making assumtions.

Honestly wouldn't have expected Canada to have such stupid outdoors rules though.
Click to expand...
Have you met our prime minister? We do stupid pretty well, actually!

(of note, most parks ban the use of E-Bikes up here. it's up to the province for the most part)
 
toodles

toodles

ridiculously corgi proportioned
Aug 24, 2004
5,824
5,201
Australia
I'm predicting that because 60% of bikes sold are trail bikes and those buyers don't give a shit about XC or DH that the industry will continue to try and make Enduro bikes seem like a good idea to buy for the average Joe.

A few manufacturers will shelve their DH teams (Nukeproof already) as their accountants explain basic cost-benefit analysis to them.

Somehow XC racing is still being supported despite machoistic levels of pain tolerance being required to participate and riders that (Nino-excluded) never look like they're enjoying a minute of it.

EWS will just get more mental and punishing until it alienates an aging consumer base as much as DH, then someone will figure out how to race "trail" bikes in a new format.

I'd like to see
A solution to tyres not holding air without being heavier than car tyres.
Aluminium frames being made nicely again and not being considered a second tier to carbon
If Minaar retires, let it be on the back of an epic win. The legend deserves it.
Media not sucking the c*ck of the industry and actually calling out the stupid trends and mediocre product solutions out there.
Shimano making safe, powerful, reliable brakes again.
SRAM making safe, powerful, reliable brakes.
Maxxis slimming their product offering down to two or three tyres, all in the stickiest compound.
An e-bike battery explosion problem similar to the old Samsung Note, forcing them to be banned from public use unless for invalid, disabled or elderly riders.
 
iRider

iRider

Turbo Monkey
Apr 5, 2008
5,686
3,143
'size said:
how could i have overlooked this. yes. a rear only wireless shifter/mech as an 'upgrade' to the rest of the already existing eagle hardware. it will cost more than the entire current eagle system.
Click to expand...
I can't wait until they introduce this rear mech so I finally can build a super clean cross/gravel bike with 1x eTap.
 
Happymtb.fr

Happymtb.fr

Turbo Monkey
Feb 9, 2016
2,066
1,437
SWE
I looked carefully into my cristal 8-ball and saw that 2018 is the year for:
- the launch of a dropper post that just work, but for real this time, no marketing BS
- Shimano to reveal completely new brakes, no revamped already-seen-before-in-another-color stuff
- Shimano to launch a new body / freehub standard. This is actually more of a confirmed rumor but I have no idea when it is due
- Pinkbike users will mature
- the revival of steel frames mostly as a gearboxed 29er enduro niche
- many bikes will come in different colours, but probably better than Intense...
- peak-upgrading is reached meaning that riders don't buy anything to upgrade their rides, partly because of a mistrust toward the industry. Instead they start to invest in riding lessons and custom stickers
 
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'size

'size

Turbo Monkey
May 30, 2007
2,000
338
AZ
regarding wireless electronic shifting - it better link to the impending smart reverb and e:i suspension. i want to be able drop gears and have it tell my suspension and seatpost to prepare for battle.
 
Westy

Westy

the teste
Nov 22, 2002
55,944
21,974
Sleazattle
'size said:
regarding wireless electronic shifting - it better link to the impending smart reverb and e:i suspension. i want to be able drop gears and have it tell my suspension and seatpost to prepare for battle.
Click to expand...

I hope that includes synchronous hydraulic seal failure for dropper, brakes and suspension.
 
Sandwich

Sandwich

Pig my fish!
Staff member
May 23, 2002
21,784
7,045
borcester rhymes
Happymtb.fr said:
- peak-upgrading is reached meaning that riders don't buy anything to upgrade their rides, partly because of a mistrust toward the industry. Instead they start to invest in riding lessons and custom stickers
Click to expand...
i think this is very real, and the industry is terrified of it. What's left to upgrade when you have all the good bits? They can't even invent a new wheel size anymore...
 
6thElement

6thElement

Schrodinger's Immigrant
Jul 29, 2008
17,149
14,624
Sandwich said:
i think this is very real, and the industry is terrified of it. What's left to upgrade when you have all the good bits? They can't even invent a new wheel size anymore...
Click to expand...
That's just taunting them, you know your wheelsizes are currently referred to in inches. Those 27.5" wheels won't become 70cm themselves without a slight tweak to round them up.
 
Happymtb.fr

Happymtb.fr

Turbo Monkey
Feb 9, 2016
2,066
1,437
SWE
Sandwich said:
i think this is very real, and the industry is terrified of it. What's left to upgrade when you have all the good bits? They can't even invent a new wheel size anymore...
Click to expand...
It is a bit like I feel now. I build my last two bikes with what fits my needs in term of performance, price, weight and reliability or maybe more what I think fits my needs... I could do with more consistent and reliable brakes and dropper post but this either don't exist or are out of reach. I cannot justify throwing more money on my bike to make it lighter. I am not interested in plus tire. Fat bikes and e-bikes seems as fun as road bikes to me...
I will enjoy my bikes like they are for the moment and maybe learn how to wheelie like Wyn Masters. :)
 
Gary

Gary

my pronouns are hag/gis
Aug 27, 2002
8,493
6,379
UK
Sandwich said:
i think this is very real, and the industry is terrified of it.
Click to expand...
Yeah. The 'industry' must be absolutely shitting their pants about all those fannies who've upgraded to level 10. Afterall they're only asking £300+ for replacement consumable parts like cassettes.
 
atrokz

atrokz

Turbo Monkey
Mar 14, 2002
1,552
77
teedotohdot
Sandwich said:
i think this is very real, and the industry is terrified of it. What's left to upgrade when you have all the good bits? They can't even invent a new wheel size anymore...
Click to expand...
They already have this covered. What they have done is make shittier parts and components. People get used to crap, then when they 'fix' it it's a whole new world!

See fox:
Amazing float forks back in 2008. Adjustable. Tons of feel, LSC and HSC dials. etc. Along comes CTD to ruin dampening by a LOT. The new CTD forks suck and people still buy and ride them. My 2013 CTD float felt like riding a fork full of broken glass and last nights tacos compared to the velvet feeling of my 2008 36 float. So fox slowly adjusts the CTD to be slightly better each year, never coming close to what the 2008 forks felt and performed like. They increased the amount of seals in a float fork, making it less supple and shittier feeling. Also see coil suspension. Got worse and worse.

So now, it gives them a ton of room to basically go back to where they were before. If Fox made a 2008 float fork for a 27.5/29 wheelsize, and billed it as 'all new', reviewers would shit their pants at the awesomeness of this all new fork and herald it as the new standard.

So all in all, there's tons of room to improve. They've made shit for so long and made stuff shittier for so long now, going backwards would actually be an improvement in many cases.

Only half joking....
 
iRider

iRider

Turbo Monkey
Apr 5, 2008
5,686
3,143
9M119 said:
might be. There's a growing group of guys on road bikes who love speeding down the fireroad at my local DH spot. They're bound to get sick of wanker's cramp eventually.

why the do it makes no sense to me but neither do single ply tires and clip pedals.
Click to expand...
Same reason why people ride hardtails or single speeds. It is wicked fun.
I blame IMBA and all the 29er XC guys for the increasing numbers of cross/gravel bikes. Sanitizing all trails so that you can ride your wagon wheels on them also makes them suitable for plus sized road bikes. ;)
 
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