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2020 speculation thread

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,037
7,554
Even if you look at non-garbage websites, that seems to be true. I wonder if she's leaching from Sanders or if Biden's star is fading.
From that post a linked tweet:

Fascinating to look at poll movement over the past six months:

UP:
Warren:
21.7%
Pete:
2.7%

DOWN:
Beto:
7.1%
Bernie:
6.4%
Biden:
4.6%
Kamala:
4.6%
Booker:
2.3%
 

stevew

resident influencer
Sep 21, 2001
40,494
9,524
any of these candidates been fitted for their santa suit yet....
 

AngryMetalsmith

Business is good, thanks for asking
Jun 4, 2006
21,081
9,791
I have no idea where I am
Warren would be a very capable President if she could beat Trump. But she doesn't have a chance. Not only do conservative women despise her, but she is unmatched for the level of attacks Trump while hurl upon her. Warren will want to discuss policy while Donnie Two Scoops wants to roll around in the mud.

Watching Warren debate Trump will be like watching a physics professor explain thermodynamics to a falling down drunk hobo while half the audience yells obscenities at the candidates.
 

rideit

Bob the Builder
Aug 24, 2004
23,067
11,303
In the cleavage of the Tetons
Me too, she is a lot like my mom (mom was a Columbia University professor).
But no, there aren’t many people who would.
It’s the venn Diagram of ‘Warren Supporters/people who dig classical music’, really.
 
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Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,037
7,554

I look forward to seeing the details of how Medicare for All might be funded.
 

Jm_

sled dog's bollocks
Jan 14, 2002
18,855
9,560
AK

I look forward to seeing the details of how Medicare for All might be funded.
Don’t be a ridiculous, what you really want is a new stealth bomber and SR-72.
 

Brian HCM#1

MMMMMMMMM BEER!!!!!!!!!!
Sep 7, 2001
32,119
378
Bay Area, California

I look forward to seeing the details of how Medicare for All might be funded.
Out of curiosity, what impact do you think Medicare for all will have with Dr.'s? I hear rumors of a Dr. shortage. Do you think the government will begin to control what Dr.'s are paid & set the pay scale? I would assume so, to keep costs down, but I could be wrong. Your thoughts?
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,037
7,554
Out of curiosity, what impact do you think Medicare for all will have with Dr.'s? I hear rumors of a Dr. shortage. Do you think the government will begin to control what Dr.'s are paid & set the pay scale? I would assume so, to keep costs down, but I could be wrong. Your thoughts?
I looked at it a few months (years?) ago. As it stands today over 40% of the payer mix for my employer is already government payors, so it won’t change much (assuming rates are set at Medicare or higher, splitting the difference between them and private). If rates are attempted to be set at Medicaid levels then that won’t fly.
 

dan-o

Turbo Monkey
Jun 30, 2004
6,499
2,805
Once insurance companies are vanquished and prescription drug prices gutted it seems reasonable to expect the next cost-cutting target will be ‘wealthy’ doctors. Just look at how dentists have been blamed for inflated bike prices!
 

Brian HCM#1

MMMMMMMMM BEER!!!!!!!!!!
Sep 7, 2001
32,119
378
Bay Area, California
Did @Brian HCM#1 rape and murder 3 dozen pre adolescent boys in the early 90's? I don't know if it's true, but many people are saying it. We don't know that it didn't happen, I'm just asking questions.
WOW!!!! That's a real douche comment! Sad you're just a little bent out of shape snowflake that's unable to have a civil conversation with anyone who doesn't see eye to eye. Well, hopefully they'll start making big boy (ooops sorry I offended you, "Gender neutral") Pull-ups in your size after Trump wins in 2020, I think its cutting off some circulation. You're pretty intimidating behind a keyboard, I'm impressed!
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,037
7,554
WOW!!!! That's a real douche comment! Sad you're just a little bent out of shape snowflake that's unable to have a civil conversation with anyone who doesn't see eye to eye. Well, hopefully they'll start making big boy (ooops sorry I offended you, "Gender neutral") Pull-ups in your size after Trump wins in 2020, I think its cutting off some circulation. You're pretty intimidating behind a keyboard, I'm impressed!
You apparently missed his point completely. "I hear rumors" is akin to his "I don't know if it's true, but many people are saying it", which is the same thing that Herr Twitler likes to do all the time in making shit up.
 

Brian HCM#1

MMMMMMMMM BEER!!!!!!!!!!
Sep 7, 2001
32,119
378
Bay Area, California
You apparently missed his point completely. "I hear rumors" is akin to his "I don't know if it's true, but many people are saying it", which is the same thing that Herr Twitler likes to do all the time in making shit up.
OK, then my bad for misunderstanding. I did read it on Yahoo a few weeks back, written by a liberal opinion writer. So I was just wondering.
 

Jm_

sled dog's bollocks
Jan 14, 2002
18,855
9,560
AK
WOW!!!! That's a real douche comment! Sad you're just a little bent out of shape snowflake that's unable to have a civil conversation with anyone who doesn't see eye to eye. Well, hopefully they'll start making big boy (ooops sorry I offended you, "Gender neutral") Pull-ups in your size after Trump wins in 2020, I think its cutting off some circulation. You're pretty intimidating behind a keyboard, I'm impressed!
The President has said as much many times over, inserting names like "Hillary", "Mexicans", basically anyone who questions anything. Except for white supremacists...there are "good people" on that side...
 

Pesqueeb

bicycle in airplane hangar
Feb 2, 2007
40,145
16,539
Riding the baggage carousel.
WOW!!!! That's a real douche comment! Sad you're just a little bent out of shape snowflake that's unable to have a civil conversation with anyone who doesn't see eye to eye. Well, hopefully they'll start making big boy (ooops sorry I offended you, "Gender neutral") Pull-ups in your size after Trump wins in 2020, I think its cutting off some circulation. You're pretty intimidating behind a keyboard, I'm impressed!
Aww man.... You forgot "soy boy". I almost got Bingo. :(

I did read it on Yahoo a few weeks back, written by a liberal opinion writer.
Jacob Wohl, is that you? Were you in a hipster coffee shop at the time?

 
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jonKranked

Detective Dookie
Nov 10, 2005
85,573
24,191
media blackout
You apparently missed his point completely. "I hear rumors" is akin to his "I don't know if it's true, but many people are saying it", which is the same thing that Herr Twitler likes to do all the time in making shit up.
more specifically it's a reference to a classic gilbert gottfried bit.
 

jonKranked

Detective Dookie
Nov 10, 2005
85,573
24,191
media blackout
Out of curiosity, what impact do you think Medicare for all will have with Dr.'s? I hear rumors of a Dr. shortage. Do you think the government will begin to control what Dr.'s are paid & set the pay scale? I would assume so, to keep costs down, but I could be wrong. Your thoughts?
there's way more factors than that. one of the major ones is the skyrocketing cost of malpractice insurance.

and the government has very limited power to control what doctors can and can't do.
 

Brian HCM#1

MMMMMMMMM BEER!!!!!!!!!!
Sep 7, 2001
32,119
378
Bay Area, California
there's way more factors than that. one of the major ones is the skyrocketing cost of malpractice insurance.

and the government has very limited power to control what doctors can and can't do.
I was just wondering with the trillions of dollars that will take to fund this, I see the government controlling what Dr.’s will be paid. If that’s the case I can see a possible shortage in doctors as the money won’t be there like it was before. Warren & Sanders for example are for more government control, which means that will dictate the rules and how much/little doctors will make.
 

jonKranked

Detective Dookie
Nov 10, 2005
85,573
24,191
media blackout
If that’s the case I can see a possible shortage in doctors as the money won’t be there like it was before.
between the cost of med school and the cost of malpractice insurance (among other things), the money isn't there *now*. my aunt left private practice as a pediatrician because of this. and it's not like dr's simply "go away" as you seem to be implying. one major aspect of this is because fewer and fewer med students are opting to go into general practice as drs but are opting for programs like PA's, nurses, etc. this has been a trend for decades.
 

dan-o

Turbo Monkey
Jun 30, 2004
6,499
2,805
I don’t foresee a shortage of doctors, there will always be demand. However, like I’ve seen in the trades due to wage erosion, the caliber of available talent will decline.

The innovation within the drug market (also your industry @jonKranked?) will also be muted if profits are limited. There will simply be no reason to innovate to the same level if the ROI isn’t there. Curing people doesn’t seem to be their motivation even at current pricing.
 

jonKranked

Detective Dookie
Nov 10, 2005
85,573
24,191
media blackout
I was just wondering with the trillions of dollars that will take to fund this, I see the government controlling what Dr.’s will be paid.
on the first point, this isn't suddenly going to cost "trillions of dollars" more, as Toshi has pointed out this will largely just be a shift of money away from private insurance.

and if you honestly think "the gov't will control what doctors get paid" you have a pretty major lack of understanding of how health insurance works.
 

jonKranked

Detective Dookie
Nov 10, 2005
85,573
24,191
media blackout
I don’t foresee a shortage of doctors, there will always be demand. However, like I’ve seen in the trades due to wage erosion, the caliber of available talent will decline.
see my prior point re: med students. this is fairly well documented and has been going on for a long time.

The innovation within the drug market (also your industry @jonKranked?) will also be muted if profits are limited. There will simply be no reason to innovate to the same level if the ROI isn’t there. Curing people doesn’t seem to be their motivation even at current pricing.
i was only in pharma briefly, but still have friends/family in that field.

on the topic of innovation, pricing, etc. here's some facts:

-drugs (as in a new API) now cost well over a billion dollars from the time they are created in a lab to the time they are brought to market. its usually in the realm of several billion dollars.
-it takes an average of 10 years to bring a new drug to market.
-for every drug that actually makes it to market, there are roughly 1000 that don't. i've seen a statistic that the reason for this is because somewhere around 95% (or higher) of new drugs fail to be proven effective or safe.
-sure, generic companies can make the drug cheaper, but their costs only account for the ***manufacturing*** of the drug, not the decade or so of R&D costs that it takes to develop a drug and prove that it is safe and effective for human use (clinical trials can cost hundreds of millions of dollars). all generic pharma companies do is reverse engineer drugs that are already on the market, and then wait for patents to expire to launch their own version (they will begin manufacturing months before a patent expires to build inventory in order to be able to launch on the day the patent has expired).
 

Jm_

sled dog's bollocks
Jan 14, 2002
18,855
9,560
AK
see my prior point re: med students. this is fairly well documented and has been going on for a long time.



i was only in pharma briefly, but still have friends/family in that field.

on the topic of innovation, pricing, etc. here's some facts:

-drugs (as in a new API) now cost well over a billion dollars from the time they are created in a lab to the time they are brought to market. its usually in the realm of several billion dollars.
-it takes an average of 10 years to bring a new drug to market.
-for every drug that actually makes it to market, there are roughly 1000 that don't. i've seen a statistic that the reason for this is because somewhere around 95% (or higher) of new drugs fail to be proven effective or safe.
-sure, generic companies can make the drug cheaper, but their costs only account for the ***manufacturing*** of the drug, not the decade or so of R&D costs that it takes to develop a drug and prove that it is safe and effective for human use (clinical trials can cost hundreds of millions of dollars). all generic pharma companies do is reverse engineer drugs that are already on the market, and then wait for patents to expire to launch their own version (they will begin manufacturing months before a patent expires to build inventory in order to be able to launch on the day the patent has expired).
Does every brand name drug have a generic drug?
No. New drugs are developed under patent protection, and most drug patents are protected for 20 years after FDA filing. However, it may take many years to research and get the brand name drug to market. When the patent gets closer to expiration, other drug companies apply to the FDA for approval to start selling the generic version of the drug.
A generic drug can be "tentatively approved" by the FDA prior to patent expiration for the brand product. Multiple companies can manufacture and sell generic versions of the brand name product. However, some drugs may never have a generic because manufacturers may deem these products unprofitable or too difficult to manufacture.
  • You can search for generic equivalents by using the Electronic Orange Book on the FDA and search by the active ingredient name.
  • A full list of products will appear, including generic and proprietary names, and the name of the manufacturer.
  • If the "TE" (therapeutic equivalence) code begins with the letter "A", then that product is therapeutically equivalent to its reference-listed drug (RLD), which is the proprietary brand name drug.
  • For example, there are multiple ibuprofen products that are considered therapeutically equivalent to Motrin (the RLD).
So with 20 years to protect the patent, I don't think generic drugs is causing the major issues of recapping R&D, it's just damn expensive to do the R&D and make drugs.
 

Jm_

sled dog's bollocks
Jan 14, 2002
18,855
9,560
AK
Program cost, 37 billion dollars. This healthcare has electromagnet catapults, electrical elevators (only a couple of which work though) and can carry 90 aircraft!

1571749412795.png
 

jonKranked

Detective Dookie
Nov 10, 2005
85,573
24,191
media blackout
So with 20 years to protect the patent, I don't think generic drugs is causing the major issues of recapping R&D, it's just damn expensive to do the R&D and make drugs.
yes its expensive. and that 20 years of patent protection doesn't mean 20 years of the drug being on market. new drugs (API compounds) that have potential are patented as soon as they are formulated. not when they are released to market.
 

Pesqueeb

bicycle in airplane hangar
Feb 2, 2007
40,145
16,539
Riding the baggage carousel.
between the cost of med school and the cost of malpractice insurance (among other things), the money isn't there *now*. my aunt left private practice as a pediatrician because of this. and it's not like dr's simply "go away" as you seem to be implying. one major aspect of this is because fewer and fewer med students are opting to go into general practice as drs but are opting for programs like PA's, nurses, etc. this has been a trend for decades.
Do you mean to imply that healthcare is a nuanced, complicated issue that can't fit on a bumper sticker?

Turns out most of Europe, Australia, NZ, etc. are also functioning countries that have not suffered "mass exodus'" of healthcare professionals. While there are arguably shortages of health care "professionals" in actual, first world countries, Freedumb® doesn't make it any better.
Healthcare thread, n00bs!