2020 speculation thread

Brian HCM#1

Sep 7, 2001
Bay Area, California
So with 20 years to protect the patent, I don't think generic drugs is causing the major issues of recapping R&D, it's just damn expensive to do the R&D and make drugs.
It is. My brother-in-law is a director for Bayer. They are responsible for manufacturing drugs for hemophiliacs. The money that goes into the research & development is crazy, then trying to get FDA approval after years & years of studies. Add in the dumping of contaminated batches that's worth millions of $, which happens a few times a year because someone F's up. There is a lot more going on behind the scenes than the public is aware of.


Turbo Monkey
Sep 16, 2008
Ottawa, Canada
Do you mean to imply that healthcare is a nuanced, complicated issue that can't fit on a bumper sticker?

Healthcare thread, n00bs!
I would ask one thing to the argument of Dr's leaving... where to? In Canada, we generally have decent access to health care, despite the allure of higher pay and such in US, which pays its Drs much much more. I don't have any statistics to back this up, but I think it's safe to assume physicians are paid more in the US than pretty much any other country in the world. If you reduce their pay, there isn't anywhere for them to go. And pay is just one factor: I also have to assume that language, culture, and quality of life all factor in to their decisions on where to locate...
I don’t foresee a shortage of doctors, there will always be demand. However, like I’ve seen in the trades due to wage erosion, the caliber of available talent will decline.

The innovation within the drug market (also your industry @jonKranked?) will also be muted if profits are limited. There will simply be no reason to innovate to the same level if the ROI isn’t there. Curing people doesn’t seem to be their motivation even at current pricing.
Innovation in the drug market is overrated. Most of what they make is overhyped bullshit.


Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
I see Warren

10/24/19 release, based off of polling this past week.

Senator Elizabeth Warren has opened up a lead in the Democratic primary race after being locked in a tight race with former Vice President Joe Biden for several weeks, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-peaack) University national poll released today.

Warren receives 28 percent of the vote among Democratic voters and independent voters who lean Democratic, while Biden gets 21 percent. Sen. Bernie Sanders gets 15 percent, South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg gets 10 percent, Sen. Kamala Harris is at 5 percent and Sen. Amy Klobuchar is at 3 percent. No other candidate tops one percent.


bicycle in airplane hangar
Feb 2, 2007
Riding the baggage carousel.
Coincidence, I'm sure.




Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001

Somewhat confusing graphics. I think this one is the clearest in showing that Bernie is a strong contender to pick up Biden or Warren votes should either drop out for whatever reason (noting low flows to Pete, Kamala, Yang, etc.)

Overall, Sen. Bernie Sanders (Vt.) was the most common second choice of Democrats, with about a fifth of respondents picking him. That’s largely because he’s the second pick of more than 3 in 10 Biden supporters and more than a third of Warren backers.
This one is useful because supporters of non-Warren, non-Biden candidates would flow basically equally to Biden and Warren were these other candidates to drop out (as they will):



Turbo Monkey
Sep 10, 2001
Sorry about this clown-car's worth of NYC impresarios we've foisted upon the national political stage. We've got good pizza, tho.