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A Real Estate of Anxiety

N8 v2.0

Not the sharpest tool in the shed
Oct 18, 2002
11,003
149
The Cleft of Venus
A Real Estate of Anxiety
By Gene Weingarten | http://www.JewishWorldReview.com

When my wife and I bought our modest, inner-city Washington rowhouse in the summer of 2001, everyone on the block was shocked at the high price we paid. They thought their new neighbors must be nuts. In a sense, we were. Insanely, we'd sold our old house before we bought a new one. That had made us "highly motivated buyers," which is Realtor terminology for "total saps."

It is spectacularly unwise to go into a business negotiation when you are far more desperate than the other party. Consider an analogy.

Auto mechanic: Your car needs some work.

You: How much will it cost?

Auto mechanic: Well, lemme see . . .

You: If I don't get this car back to Carmine "The Worm" Vermicelli in good shape by Tuesday, I will be encased in cement and become part of the footing of the new Woodrow Wilson Bridge.

Auto mechanic: Sixty thousand dollars.

My point is, yes, we bought high. But I think you know where this story is headed. Things worked out swell. Conservatively speaking, our house is currently worth $16.7 billion, which is several million times what we paid for it. The price we paid for our house in 2001 would currently purchase, in our neighborhood, a fully restored lawn ornament. (This is despite the fact that my neighborhood is just two miles radioactively downwind from the White House, if you get my drift.) (So to speak.)

America's cities are in what is considered a volatile real estate boom — or we were, at least, three weeks ago when this column was written. What this means is that if my wife and I sold our house right now, we would make a small fortune. The problem is, we would need to spend all of it immediately on a comparable new home, unless we were willing to move to a place with much lower real estate prices, such as Yemen, or live in a packing crate, or, you know, die.

So, we are staying put in our suddenly expensive house, vaguely uncomfortable about the situation. Our home has become an item of substantial worth but no practical value. We are like idiot thieves who have stolen the "Mona Lisa" but cannot sell it without getting arrested.

Like many homeowners, my wife and I are taking our minds off this painful paradox by attending "open houses" in our neighborhood, checking out other homes for sale at ridiculously inflated prices. It makes you feel good.

"Hey, this house is selling for $1.2 million, and it's made out of chicken wire and Styrofoam!"

"Here's one for $1.6 million, and it doesn't have floors!"

"Here's a two-holer outhouse for $750,000!"

At these open houses, it is easy to distinguish curious neighbors like my wife and me from actual potential buyers (many of whom have previously bid irrationally high on houses, only to lose out to someone even crazier). The curious neighbors are casual and smiling. The actual potential buyers have a hunted, furtive, vulnerable look. As they pass by, I have an overwhelming urge to say to my wife, in a Thurston Howell III accent, "We simply must offer $230,000 over the list price, Consuela, and throw in the older Porsche."

Local real estate agents have discovered that, in this hot market, bad is good. They love properties that permit them to euphemistically list undesirable features about a house ("transitional neighborhood," "handyman's delight," "a rodent fancier's dream," etc.) because that will attract buyers hoping to capitalize on lower competition.

Soon, all pretense will go out of these listings:

"Snot-green carpeting!"

"Alice Kramden's kitchen decor!"

"Latrine-style toilets!"

In all likelihood, at some point soon, this overheated market is going to suddenly chill like a cup of black coffee poured into a glass of ice, creating a soft drink with a bitter undertaste representing both the dashed dreams of homeowners and poor metaphor selection. My wife and I know this, as we sit here, feeling a little silly, outside in our back yard, which is the size of a plastic turtle sandbox, contemplating our 16-foot-wide, seven-room mansion.
 

Ridemonkey

This is not an active account
Sep 18, 2002
4,108
1
Toronto, Canada
N8 said:
A Real Estate of Anxiety


America's cities are in what is considered a volatile real estate boom — or we were, at least, three weeks ago when this column was written. What this means is that if my wife and I sold our house right now, we would make a small fortune. The problem is, we would need to spend all of it immediately on a comparable new home, unless we were willing to move to a place with much lower real estate prices, such as Yemen, or live in a packing crate, or, you know, die.

So, we are staying put in our suddenly expensive house, vaguely uncomfortable about the situation. Our home has become an item of substantial worth but no practical value. We are like idiot thieves who have stolen the "Mona Lisa" but cannot sell it without getting arrested.



Anyone with half a brain would know how to use this situation to their advantage.

1. Sell now morons! Take that money and semi-retire in a cheap market. There are many great places in the US where that amount would go a very very very long way.

2. Don't want to leave job/friends/family? Sell anyway idiots! Rent something for a few years and when the market crashes buy back in while keeping your bank account FAT!!

This isn't rocket science....
 

ncrider

Turbo Monkey
Aug 15, 2004
1,564
0
Los Angeles
:stupid:

It's funny how people like that can't seem to understand a simple market trend or business cycle. There are factors which can lend some insight into the future of the market. Rising interest rates is one. However, so many other factors push and pull at markets that it is hard to say for sure what will hapen.

The only sure thing here is that they could sell their home right now for 16 million and live happily ever after....period. Hell even if they buy anouther home, pay tax and capital gains, then invest the rest (hopefully 5-9mil @ around a 10% return) they'd still be looking at pulling in a modest 5-9 hundredK/year.
 

N8 v2.0

Not the sharpest tool in the shed
Oct 18, 2002
11,003
149
The Cleft of Venus
Ridemonkey said:
Anyone with half a brain would know how to use this situation to their advantage.

1. Sell now morons! Take that money and semi-retire in a cheap market. There are many great places in the US where that amount would go a very very very long way.

2. Don't want to leave job/friends/family? Sell anyway idiots! Rent something for a few years and when the market crashes buy back in while keeping your bank account FAT!!

This isn't rocket science....

:stupid:
 

Ridemonkey

This is not an active account
Sep 18, 2002
4,108
1
Toronto, Canada
ncrider said:
:stupid:

It's funny how people like that can't seem to understand a simple market trend or business cycle. There are factors which can lend some insight into the future of the market. Rising interest rates is one. However, so many other factors push and pull at markets that it is hard to say for sure what will hapen.

The only sure thing here is that they could sell their home right now for 16 million and live happily ever after....period. Hell even if they buy anouther home, pay tax and capital gains, then invest the rest (hopefully 5-9mil @ around a 10% return) they'd still be looking at pulling in a modest 5-9 hundredK/year.
The bottom line is that home have value because people live in them. When investors inflate the market to a degree that homes are far beyond the reach of the working populace, the pool of buyers will simply dry up. I'm not an expert but this seems like simple logic to me.
 

N8 v2.0

Not the sharpest tool in the shed
Oct 18, 2002
11,003
149
The Cleft of Venus
Ridemonkey said:
The bottom line is that home have value because people live in them. When investors inflate the market to a degree that homes are far beyond the reach of the working populace, the pool of buyers will simply dry up. I'm not an expert but this seems like simple logic to me.

But the Gillion Dollar question is....




...what exactly is that point when this happens?





Who would have thought home prices would have gotten where they are now ten years ago?
 

Echo

crooked smile
Jul 10, 2002
11,819
15
Slacking at work
I've been waiting for this home market value thing to hit Rochester, so I can cash in on my house I got for under 80 grand. Oh wait, it won't happen in Rochester, because this place SUCKS.
 

MTB_Rob_NC

What do I have to do to get you in this car TODAY?
Nov 15, 2002
3,428
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Charlotte, NC
N8 said:
Conservatively speaking, our house is currently worth $16.7 billion, which is several million times what we paid for it.

When I read the article I thought he was being sarcastic of the value/appreciation?
 

Ridemonkey

This is not an active account
Sep 18, 2002
4,108
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Toronto, Canada
Echo said:
I've been waiting for this home market value thing to hit Rochester, so I can cash in on my house I got for under 80 grand. Oh wait, it won't happen in Rochester, because this place SUCKS.
I'll bid 75k
 

gigapower

Monkey
Jul 10, 2005
160
0
Tulsa, OK
Ridemonkey is correct, Greenspan has been warning of the Home market implosion for a while now, and once that happens you can kiss Bush's "good economy" down the drains. On All Things Considered last night they had a piece on people buying houses in Bethesda, MD for $800,000+ and then bulldozing down the house on the lot to build huge multi-million houses. Sad to see a historic homes get bulldozed over. Also they talked about farm land in Virgina being bought up by developers and building $300,000+ houses on them and current town residents protesting the destruction of their rural life.
 

Ridemonkey

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Sep 18, 2002
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Toronto, Canada
Mtb_Rob_FL said:
When I read the article I thought he was being sarcastic of the value/appreciation?
I think you are correct. I was not considering that a literal value when forming my opinion. I'm sure whatever the real value is its still bank.
 

N8 v2.0

Not the sharpest tool in the shed
Oct 18, 2002
11,003
149
The Cleft of Venus
gigapower said:
Also they talked about farm land in Virgina being bought up by developers and building $300,000+ houses on them and current town residents protesting the destruction of their rural life.
Gotta defend that fine trailer park livin'!!!


:p
 

MTB_Rob_NC

What do I have to do to get you in this car TODAY?
Nov 15, 2002
3,428
0
Charlotte, NC
Ridemonkey said:
I think you are correct. I was not considering that a literal value when forming my opinion. I'm sure whatever the real value is its still bank.

eh... I disagree. My home has appreciated ~ 100% (one of the higher markets in the US) since I bought it
140k to now ~ 300. I am 32 I am not semi-retiring on 160 grand anywhere.

1) Dont take money out of an appreciating asset unless you HAVE to.
2) Owning a home or homes has a number of financial benefits (mainly tax)


There have been so few Real Estate market crashes in this contry, and when and where they have occured they have been on a micro level (Silicon Valley is an example). IMHO this market (at least not mine) is not being soley supported by "investors." It is real appreciation, there maybe a bubble floating on top of it, but it is not a huge bubble.

Personally I pulled all my other investments (out of other markets) into my home. Its not like I was making 100% on my money in the stock market or a CD.
 

Westy

the teste
Nov 22, 2002
55,983
22,022
Sleazattle
Echo said:
:D It's worth about 120 or so now, I'm waiting for it to get up to about 300k before I sell :p
Sell at $250K, over that you have to pay capital gains or roll over into a new place. No cap gains for homes under $250k.
 

Ridemonkey

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Sep 18, 2002
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Toronto, Canada
Mtb_Rob_FL said:
eh... I disagree. My home has appreciated ~ 100% (one of the higher markets in the US) since I bought it
140k to now ~ 300. I am 32 I am not semi-retiring on 160 grand anywhere.

1) Dont take money out of an appreciating asset unless you HAVE to.
2) Owning a home or homes has a number of financial benefits (mainly tax)


There have been so few Real Estate market crashes in this contry, and when and where they have occured they have been on a micro level (Silicon Valley is an example). IMHO this market (at least not mine) is not being soley supported by "investors." It is real appreciation, there maybe a bubble floating on top of it, but it is not a huge bubble.

Personally I pulled all my other investments (out of other markets) into my home. Its not like I was making 100% on my money in the stock market or a CD.

Working families can buy 300k homes. Thats not the ballpark we are talking about here. I would guess that the home in that article is 6 figures. If you sit on a million dollar 3 BDR 2BTH house (ala California), you are asking for bankruptcy.

Bubbles are regional. There are still plenty of markets that are sustainable. Investing 200k-400k homes still makes sense because a middle class family can still buy that home. Investors are certainly inflating the bubble markets because most people in the US don't have the resources to push middle class homes into 6 figure prices.
 

riderx

Monkey
Aug 14, 2001
704
0
Fredrock
Ridemonkey said:
Working families can buy 300k homes. Thats not the ballpark we are talking about here.
You are right, a couple of blocks from the White House you will not find homes for 300K.
 

N8 v2.0

Not the sharpest tool in the shed
Oct 18, 2002
11,003
149
The Cleft of Venus
riderx said:
You are right, a couple of blocks from the White House you will not find homes for 300K.

DC was once (not too long ago) one of the WORST markets in the US.... that's not the case today.
 

ncrider

Turbo Monkey
Aug 15, 2004
1,564
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Los Angeles
Ridemonkey said:
The bottom line is that home have value because people live in them. When investors inflate the market to a degree that homes are far beyond the reach of the working populace, the pool of buyers will simply dry up. I'm not an expert but this seems like simple logic to me.
What is the reach of the working populace? The reach for some is not the reach for others and if money can be made from it there will always be those able to make the reach.

However, if the "poool of buyers dries up" this will cause a shortage of buyers in the market and also people seeking loans. The result can be a reduction in the price of homes and a decrease in the interest rate associtaed with home loans. This decrease in home price and interest rate gives an incentive to buy and thus ther market grows again.
 

clancy98

Monkey
Dec 6, 2004
758
0
I dont think the "pool of buyers" is going to dry up, at least in the big picture. Maybe for the $16M homes it will, but unless we put in some sort of population control legislation, the real estate market will probably never come to a screeching halt.
 

Ciaran

Fear my banana
Apr 5, 2004
9,841
19
So Cal
I don't know anything about business or finances, but I do know this... Here in So Cal, specifically Pasadena the only homes I can afford are in the areas I do not want to live in. And they are 400,000 - 500,000. I am going to have to transfer my job out to Corona in the Inland Empire (blech!) and buy a house there. I am still going to end up paying 400,000 for something decent. Myself and many of my friends and co-workers are struggling to buy houses. It seems like if you don't make 100,000 per year you are living in a less than desirable area.

I really hope this bubble thing you speak of does burst so the prices fall to an affordable level. My dad bought a house in OC for 409,000 2 years ago, he just put it up for sale for 735,000. He said that he'll likely let it go for 710,000. There is no way I can afford a 700,000 house!

I am very very worried about trying to buy a home in the next 2 years. But I have to do it. I am 34, and I can't stay in an apartment forever. :help:
 

N8 v2.0

Not the sharpest tool in the shed
Oct 18, 2002
11,003
149
The Cleft of Venus
clancy98 said:
I dont think the "pool of buyers" is going to dry up, at least in the big picture. Maybe for the $16M homes it will, but unless we put in some sort of population control legislation, the real estate market will probably never come to a screeching halt.

Buy land... they quit making it a really long time ago ya know.
 

Ridemonkey

This is not an active account
Sep 18, 2002
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Toronto, Canada
clancy98 said:
I dont think the "pool of buyers" is going to dry up, at least in the big picture. Maybe for the $16M homes it will, but unless we put in some sort of population control legislation, the real estate market will probably never come to a screeching halt.

LOL, we aren't talking about people running out. We are talking about money running out. How many people in America do you think can afford million dollar homes?
 

clancy98

Monkey
Dec 6, 2004
758
0
Man, I just can't stop finding reasons for people to move away from Cali!

RM -- thats what I am saying. There is definitely a possibility that people will stop paying for $16m dollar homes. But that doesn't mean the real estate market will reverse. There are lots of places where the same size home can be had, in a decent rural neighborhood, for under a half a mil.

IMO, real estate is the one thing that will always increase in value, because population is always increasing.


It's just at a premium.
 

N8 v2.0

Not the sharpest tool in the shed
Oct 18, 2002
11,003
149
The Cleft of Venus
Prices will keep going up, and like cars, they will change the finance term from 30 years to 40 years. Did you know you can finance cars and ski boats for up to 120 months?

Ain't that insane?
 

gigapower

Monkey
Jul 10, 2005
160
0
Tulsa, OK
A buddy of mine lives in Fairfax, his parents gave him their old house which was valued at $300k back in 2000, he had an offer on it a last year for almost $1 million.
 

ncrider

Turbo Monkey
Aug 15, 2004
1,564
0
Los Angeles
clancy98 said:
Man, I just can't stop finding reasons for people to move away from Cali!
Oh I could give you a few for Socal. All day evry day TRAFFIC, ridiculous home prices (sweet you can get a million dollar home and high-five your neighbor in his kitchen while you take a **** in your bathroom), lack of open land, lack of legal trails, poor income to cost of living ratio. Should I go on?
 

reflux

Turbo Monkey
Mar 18, 2002
4,617
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G14 Classified
There is a common theme nowadays that real estate will always be going up, no matter what. That is true...over the long-term. The events of the past 5 - 10 years have really led everyone to believe that real estate is a no-brainer way to make money. Believe it or not, the real estate market and stock market have one main thing in common, both increase over the long-term; the same being true that both markets have their troughs. Orange County, one of the hotter real estate markets in the country, had a downturn in real estate in the early 90s. Real estate prices realigned closer to what the population could afford. At an econ seminar I went to last Winter, it was said that prices at the end of 2004 were at the same relative level of prices before the downturn. Basically, we're at a peak, and a downturn (however big or small) shouldn't be a huge surprise to anybody.
 

clancy98

Monkey
Dec 6, 2004
758
0
ncrider said:
Oh I could give you a few for Socal. All day evry day TRAFFIC, ridiculous home prices (sweet you can get a million dollar home and high-five your neighbor in his kitchen while you take a **** in your bathroom), lack of open land, lack of legal trails, poor income to cost of living ratio. Should I go on?

ugh! The traffic ALONE would kill me... Sitting in a car (and drinking too much seawater) makes me crazy...
 

reflux

Turbo Monkey
Mar 18, 2002
4,617
2
G14 Classified
ncrider said:
Why where you at the Econ seminar? It doesn't sound like your an economist. You a teacher?
The econ semiar was given by a professor at the Chapman School of Econ and sponsored by the CA Society of CPAs. The speaker's a smart guy, funny as hell, and runs a great program.

I'm a cpa, but I find econ very interesting (mainly because I know so little).

To be completely honest, my previous thread was nothing more than a guess, almost a wish. I would love to buy a condo one of these days, but I can't afford it (I won't do an interest only or option arm). The only way I could ever afford something is for the prices to decline, which would likely happen by the end of the decade (maybe stagflation), thus giving me a little more time to save for a downpayment. I'm very interested to see what happens with the economy.
 

ncrider

Turbo Monkey
Aug 15, 2004
1,564
0
Los Angeles
reflux said:
The only way I could ever afford something is for the prices to decline, which would likely happen by the end of the decade (maybe stagflation
As an econ graduate I can tell you that stagflation is not something you'd ever want. It happened in Japan and for a brief period of time interest rates whent negative. Luckily the Federal reserve is unlikely to let our economy fall inot such a state.
 

reflux

Turbo Monkey
Mar 18, 2002
4,617
2
G14 Classified
ncrider said:
As an econ graduate I can tell you that stagflation is not something you'd ever want. It happened in Japan and for a brief period of time interest rates whent negative.
Oh, believe me, it's not something I'd wish either, but the current administration hasn't been the taking appropriate steps to make sure it doesn't happen. Deficit spending, a huge reliance on debt issuance, an inability to balance the budget, and a deficit in the current account (is that the trade term?) are just a few things that could potentially lead to stagflation. The fact that Congress is showing at least some restraint in the recent Homeland Security budget talks is giving me some hope though that they won't just keep writing blank checks (like for the war).

About real estate, how's Portland? I have a sister who might be moving there next year and I might be interested moving in a few years.