[N8 v2.0]

i'll see your cnn/time poll and raise you:

Democrat Barack Obama has a narrow 3-point lead in the U.S. presidential race on Republican John McCain less than a month before the election, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Tuesday.

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE4961BK20081007?sp=true

 

[Transcend]

See here for the proper way to conduct polls.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

They take ALL of the major polls, drop them into a database and then slowly runt he numbers through an algorithm. It is the only site that will even be near accurate this far in advance.

Single polls are not going to be very accurate due to limited polling numbers/areas and the different tendencies voters have when replying to these polls. Combining them all in a weighted fashion is really the only way to do it.

 

[N8 v2.0]

See here for the proper way to conduct polls.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

They take ALL of the major polls, drop them into a database and then slowly runt he numbers through an algorithm. It is the only site that will even be near accurate this far in advance.

Single polls are not going to be very accurate due to limited polling numbers/areas and the different tendencies voters have when replying to these polls. Combining them all in a weighted fashion is really the only way to do it.

site blocked by meh firewallz, what did they predict in the last 2 presidential elections?

 

[N8 v2.0]

Sure, if you're a retard.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

Numbers and stuff...

awesome, yo!

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/Hotline_100708.htm

The Early Line: Diageo/Hotline Tracking Poll
Obama-Biden 46%
McCain-Palin 44%
Undecided 9%

-- The race has tightened in the last day. After trailing by 5-7 pts. for the last 10 days, McCain is now just 2 pts. behind Obama.

--One potential reason: Obama's one-time lead on the question of who'd best handle the economy has evaporated. Today, Obama and McCain are tied at 42%. Independent voters favor McCain on the economy by an 8 pt. margin (42-34%).

--Even so, among the 62% of voters who picked the economy as their #1 issue, Obama leads McCain by 9 pts. - 49-40%.

Today's Diageo/Hotline tracking poll, conducted 10/4-6 by FD; surveyed 908 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.3% Party ID Breakdown: 40%D, 38%R, 18%I.

 

[drkenan]

See here for the proper way to conduct polls.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

They take ALL of the major polls, drop them into a database and then slowly runt he numbers through an algorithm. It is the only site that will even be near accurate this far in advance.

Single polls are not going to be very accurate due to limited polling numbers/areas and the different tendencies voters have when replying to these polls. Combining them all in a weighted fashion is really the only way to do it.

Nice site!

 

[Transcend]

538 is pretty different from realclearpolitics btw. Here is why i prefer them for making sense of 870 million polls.

How is this site different from other compilations of polls like Real Clear Politics? There are several principal ways that the FiveThityEight methodology differs from other poll compilations:

Firstly, we assign each poll a weighting based on that pollster's historical track record, the poll's sample size, and the recentness of the poll. More reliable polls are weighted more heavily in our averages.

Secondly, we include a regression estimate based on the demographics in each state among our 'polls', which helps to account for outlier polls and to keep the polling in its proper context.

Thirdly, we use an inferential process to compute a rolling trendline that allows us to adjust results in states that have not been polled recently and make them ‘current’.

Fourthly, we simulate the election 10,000 times for each site update in order to provide a probabilistic assessment of electoral outcomes based on a historical analysis of polling data since 1952. The simulation further accounts for the fact that similar states are likely to move together, e.g. future polling movement in states like Michigan and Ohio, or North and South Carolina, is likely to be in the same direction.

 

[SkaredShtles]

Aren't 30-day political polls kind of like 30-day weather forecasts?

 

[Silver]

538 is pretty different from realclearpolitics btw. Here is why i prefer them for making sense of 870 million polls.

I prefer 538 as well, but RCP should have been simple enough for N8 to understand.

 

[Westy]

As we have seen popular vote means nothing.