[N8 v2.0]

looks like you obama homers may be needing the electorial college to pull it out.. funny when you think about how many libs wanted to eliminate it last 2 elections.

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D93VM4PO0&show_article=1

The poll, which found Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent, supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: that the race narrowed after the third debate as GOP-leaning voters drifted home to their party and McCain's "Joe the plumber" analogy struck a chord.

Three weeks ago, an AP-GfK survey found that Obama had surged to a seven-point lead over McCain, lifted by voters who thought the Democrat was better suited to lead the nation through its sudden economic crisis.

The contest is still volatile, and the split among voters is apparent less than two weeks before Election Day.

 

[dante]

the actual numbers behind the poll:

http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com/pdf/AP-GfK_Poll_3_Topline_FINAL.pdf

for some reason Obama leads 47-37 among all respondent, but AP plays with the numbers to determine who's going to vote and who's not and comes up with a tie. way to go AP!

 

[Westy]

the actual numbers behind the poll:

http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com/pdf/AP-GfK_Poll_3_Topline_FINAL.pdf

for some reason Obama leads 47-37 among all respondent, but AP plays with the numbers to determine who's going to vote and who's not and comes up with a tie. way to go AP!

AP culls responses according to voter history, that gives us the likely voter category. In other words if someone tells them they are really excited to vote this year because they love Obama they don't count their feedback if they didn't vote last year. It also eliminates young new voters. Doesn't make much sense as Obama has a lot of new and very enthusiastic supporters where many of McCain voters aren't all that jazzed up like n8.

This election as in most will come down to who shows up to vote more so who has the most supporters.

 

[AngryMetalsmith]

Another one of N 8's " reliable " news sources.

You would think that his arms are getting tired from all of that dead horse flogging.

 

[Transcend]

First article here: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

There are eight current national polls that list separate sets of results for likely and registered voters. (In this case, for reasons that will be apparent momentarily, I am deliberately double-counting the two Gallup likely voter models). On average, Barack Obama leads by 9.8 points in the registered voter versions of these polls, but by 7.0 points in the likely voter versions -- nearly a 3-point difference:



Note, however, that the likely voter models appear to segregate themselves into two clusters. In one cluster, there is a rather large, 4-6 point difference between registered and likely voter results. In the other cluster, there is essentially no difference.

The first cluster coincides with Gallup's so-called "traditional" likely voter model, which considers both a voter's stated intention and his past voting behavior. The second cluster coincides with their "expanded" likely voter model, which considers solely the voter's stated intentions. Note the philosophical difference between the two: in the "traditional" model, a voter can tell you that he's registered, tell you that he's certain to vote, tell you that he's very engaged by the election, tell you that he knows where his polling place is, etc., and still be excluded from the model if he hasn't voted in the past. The pollster, in other words, is making a determination as to how the voter will behave. In the "expanded" model, the pollster lets the voter speak for himself.

Frankly, I find polls showing a 4-6 point gap between likely and registered voters to be utterly ridiculous. Why?

1. Among people who have already voted, Democrats lead overwhelmingly. Zogby pegs Barack Obama's advantage at 27 points among people who have already voted. The New York Times details how Democrats are overperforming, sometimes dramatically, in states where early voting is underway. (By the way, the New York Times' data on Florida is wrong, as it includes absentee ballot requests as well as early voters. According to an Open Left diarist, Democrats have a 24-point advantage among those who have actually voted early in Florida).

Pollsters ought to make certain that they're asking people whether they've already voted. Moreover, they ought to be putting these early voters through their likely voter models as a sanity check. That is, they should be testing to see whether a substantial number of people who have actually voted would in fact have been excluded by their likely voter screens. If the answer to this question is yes, they ought to be asking themselves whether their likely voter models have any basis in reality.

 

[dante]

everybody does, it's how you manipulate that information that matters...

# US: Obama 44, McCain 43 (AP-Gfk-10/16-20)
# US: Obama 49, McCain 40 (FOX-10/20-21)
# US: Obama 52, McCain 44 (Gallup-10/19-21)

so which one is the outlier here?

 

[Transcend]

See link above dante. They take all the polls and then combine them properly. They are probably one of the only reliable sources for poll information (for either party).

Another epic n8 "Troll and Fail" thread.

 

[dante]

See link above dante. They take all the polls and then combine them properly. They are probably one of the only reliable sources for poll information (for either party).

Another epic n8 "Troll and Fail" thread.

I like pollster.com since they show all polls, and you can do the extrapolation yourself. It's easy enough to see the outliers...

 

[jimmydean]

I voted yesterday.

<edit> I voted on Monday, I mailed it yesterday.

 

[N8 v2.0]

Nothing to worry about here then either..



shttp://www.ibdeditorials.com/Polls.aspx?id=309546869309178

 

[BurlyShirley]

Interesting.

College dropouts prefer McCain while college graduates prefer Obama.

That should speak volumes.

 

[N8 v2.0]

Interesting.

College dropouts prefer McCain while college graduates prefer Obama.

That should speak volumes.

dropped out to go to work and start business whilst the obamaians were indoctrinated for 4+ years?

yeah, i see your point.

 

[Defenestrated]

dropped out to go to work and start business whilst the obamaians were indoctrinated for 4+ years?

reminded me of...

Textbooks are Soviet propaganda.

 

[BurlyShirley]

dropped out to go to work and start business whilst the obamaians were indoctrinated for 4+ years?

yeah, i see your point.

Yet another example of sugarcoating obvious failure. That's all you've ever done in the PAWN.

 

[Westy]

dropped out to go to work and start business whilst the obamaians were indoctrinated for 4+ years?

yeah, i see your point.

99% of 18 year old drop outs that start their own business do so with a giant trust fund.

 

[N8 v2.0]

Yet another example of sugarcoating obvious failure. That's all you've ever done in the PAWN.

there would be a lot less if it if there was some serious criticism of your candidate by the homers in here

but there aint

oster_oops:

 

[N8 v2.0]

99% of 18 year old drop outs that start their own business do so with a giant trust fund.

i thought trustafarians were as a rule libs.. no?

 

[N8 v2.0]

seriously though... y'all should ignore these polls.

they are merely harmless fun.

better get back to the seriousness of how much Palin's panties cost

 

[Defenestrated]

i thought trustafarians were as a rule libs.. no?

how is this possible if libs are all poor ghetto bred criminals, that is after all what you are constantly insinuating

 

[BurlyShirley]

there would be a lot less if it if there was some serious criticism of your candidate by the homers in here

but there aint

oster_oops:

If you have a fair criticism, I would think it would warrant a fair debate. He got my vote not because he's "my" candidate, but because the alternative was... substandard, for lack of a better word.

 

[N8 v2.0]

If you have a fair criticism, I would think it would warrant a fair debate. He got my vote not because he's "my" candidate, but because the alternative was... substandard, for lack of a better word.

pretty sure i hvent seen a "i like obama but...' thread in here what so ever.

 

[BurlyShirley]

pretty sure i hvent seen a "i like obama but...' thread in here what so ever.

Maybe he's perfect? All your posts seem to get shot down fairly decisively.

My gut feeling is that there will be plenty to complain about... it's just that no one wants to hurt the guy's chances of being elected. It's pretty obvious he's the better man for the job after all.

 

[N8 v2.0]

Maybe he's perfect? All your posts seem to get shot down fairly decisively.

My gut feeling is that there will be plenty to complain about... it's just that no one wants to hurt the guy's chances of being elected. It's pretty obvious he's the better man for the job after all.

ah come on.. he is going to be elected... time to cum clean

 

[narlus]

i thought trustafarians were as a rule libs.. no?

no, for obvious reasons (ie, estate tax) they are republicans.

 

[jimmydean]

I still don't know for sure until Nov. 4 if Obama will actually get elected, but like BS said, he is better than the alternative. What's worse than the alternative is the backup to the alternative.

Had McCain NOT picked Palin, I would still vote Obama but would be a lot less nervous about this whole election.

Obama was like an 80% on the "pick your candidate" page that was posted a while back. Edwards was slightly higher than that.

 

[Westy]

It over 'til it's over. McCain has fought back a little in the past week but certainly not a dead heat like the AP poll says. If McCain had picked Leiberman I wouldn't be so worried about the election

 

[$tinkle]

Interesting.

College dropouts prefer McCain while college graduates prefer Obama.

That should speak volumes.

i "took a break" from college in order to enlist, where i became indoctrinated by the right. but since graduating, i haven't gone to the dark side*





*for johne, you filthy racist

 

[Westy]

pretty sure i hvent seen a "i like obama but...' thread in here what so ever.

In 8 years of screwing the country/world up there haven't exactly been a horde of neo-cons doing the same.

 

[kidwoo]

I'm going to ask it here because it just seems like a place to do it.


Why the fvck does anyone on this forum who's been here a while ever actually respond to a n8 post with any degree of sincerity? The guy (sic) is a vaporheaded cheerleader who never once has posted anything even remotely insightful.

I'm genuinely curious.

 

[Straya]

I'm going to ask it here because it just seems like a place to do it.


Why the fvck does anyone on this forum who's been here a while ever actually respond to a n8 post with any degree of sincerity? The guy (sic) is a vaporheaded cheerleader who never once has posted anything even remotely insightful.

I'm genuinely curious.

Its like driving past a car wreck, you know you really shouldn't stare but you just can't help yourself.

 

[MikeD]

I'm going to ask it here because it just seems like a place to do it.


Why the fvck does anyone on this forum who's been here a while ever actually respond to a n8 post with any degree of sincerity? The guy (sic) is a vaporheaded cheerleader who never once has posted anything even remotely insightful.

I'm genuinely curious.

Oh, you are serious. This is your serious post.

 

[sanjuro]

I'm going to ask it here because it just seems like a place to do it.


Why the fvck does anyone on this forum who's been here a while ever actually respond to a n8 post with any degree of sincerity? The guy (sic) is a vaporheaded cheerleader who never once has posted anything even remotely insightful.

I'm genuinely curious.

I like the difference of opinion.

 

[Westy]

I'm going to ask it here because it just seems like a place to do it.


Why the fvck does anyone on this forum who's been here a while ever actually respond to a n8 post with any degree of sincerity? The guy (sic) is a vaporheaded cheerleader who never once has posted anything even remotely insightful.

I'm genuinely curious.

Just so some passing half-wit lurker doesn't think n8 is right because no one bothered to provide a logical reply. It certainly isn't for n8.

 

[$tinkle]

I'm going to ask it here because it just seems like a place to do it.


Why the fvck does anyone on this forum who's been here a while ever actually respond to a n8 post with any degree of sincerity? The guy (sic) is a vaporheaded cheerleader who never once has posted anything even remotely insightful.

I'm genuinely curious.

maybe he's actually a turing machine

 

[Westy]

How about another statistical flyer to counter n8's.

reality somewhere in the middle.

Obama 12 points up.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20081023/pl_nm/us_usa_politics_poll_18

 

[BillT]

Let them keep on reporting a dead heat - that way complacency won't set in and people that are on the fence about actually going at and voting will go out and vote.

 

[jimmydean]

Let them keep on reporting a dead heat - that way complacency won't set in and people that are on the fence about actually going at and voting will go out and vote.

If only that theory worked, it would be awesome.

There are 2 kinds of "undecideds":

1. I don't know who I should vote for so that people will like me.

2. I don't want to vote for the "loser".

If one person is up in the polls, then that person is likely to get BOTH types of undecided voters. I know some of my Southern Oregon in-laws feel they waste a vote when voting for the less popular guy.

They WANT to vote, but they want it to count. According to them it only counts if the guy they vote for wins.

 

[Plummit]

Avg of the nat'l polls looks to be Obama up by 7.4%. You can clearly see that the "dead heat" poll is an outlier, much like Obama up by 14%. Also, I believe N8 was interested in Palin's pricey panties:

 

[jimmydean]

As much as I like to think Palin wears some hawt thong or even some nice lace boyshorts, I know the reality is she wears some stark white granny briefs that are larger than the BVD's I was issued in the Navy.

They call her a "conservative" for a reason.

 

[$tinkle]

As much as I like to think Palin wears some hawt thong or even some nice lace boyshorts, I know the reality is she wears some stark white granny briefs that are larger than the BVD's I was issued in the Navy.

you want her uterus to fall into her boots?