The initial quoted Imperial estimates for the UK were if no mitigation was performed.
The IHME estimates, which now seem a bit low (no surprise due to their curve fitting setup's assumptions and our idiocy), were assuming full social distancing.
The models may have screwed the pooch with regard to hospital bed and ventilator usage, sure, but they still were in the right ballpark generally.
To preface, I have zero compassion for protestors flaunting masks/distancing and politically grandstanding.
However I also know many people being irreparably harmed by being prevented from working even though they could do it safely, as I’m sure you are while at work.
We had a NIMBY neighbor to our current job call the health dept asking to shut us down. Inspector and cop show up, we show them we’re working safely, per CDC guidelines and State guidelines, and told them to pound sand.
If this country really wanted to show unity every non-essential business should shut down and all non-essential employees lose their pay. Until that happens I won’t begrudge people trying to survive.