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Mo(n)arch

Turbo Monkey
Dec 27, 2010
4,462
1,461
Italy/south Tyrol
hey i was wondering when you IT folks were gonna chime in. hope you're all staying safe.
Well it isn't too bad in SouthTyrol (we have 103 cases now on a populiation of 500k), but needless to say a little more south everything is pretty much collapsing. Thankfully, everyone has to stay at home now. However, it's far too late and I reckon France, Germany and all the others will follow unfortunately.
 

dan-o

Turbo Monkey
Jun 30, 2004
6,499
2,805
we arguably would have had a fully, properly staffed CDC and Health agencies, and I don't believe that wouldn't have made a huge difference for the better.
I agree with this if only because of attitudes related to forced containment. The amount of unnecessary travel still occurring is mind boggling.

We really just need to implement reasonably sized containment zones at this point, for 2-4 weeks or whatever is deemed as having sufficient impact.

I’m not too concerned about basic needs drying up as much as medical system overload due to nonchalance induced asshattery.

Instead of calling the ball and being proactive they’ve got the band on the fordeck pretending everything is normal.
 

6thElement

Schrodinger's Immigrant
Jul 29, 2008
17,214
14,679
I agree with this if only because of attitudes related to forced containment. The amount of unnecessary travel still occurring is mind boggling.
I just had to email my management and ask why aren't they postponing a training session next week they're making people fly in for.

One of the sessions planned for the second day is Crisis Management...
 

maxyedor

<b>TOOL PRO</b>
Oct 20, 2005
5,496
3,141
In the bathroom, fighting a battle
come back and say this after the hospitals are overwhelmed.
That's exactly my point, we have the same number of hospitals now as we did then so what's the difference there? What could have happened under different leadership that won't be happening now? We've never actually been prepared for that situation, fully staffed CDC or not. We were exactly as ill prepared for Ebola as we are for Covid-19, but since it never really got out of hand, almost purely by luck, we forgot all about it and did nothing to prepare for the next potential pandemic.

Without the will and ability to restrict movement, the virus still spreads and the hospitals still get overwhelmed. A fully staffed CDC improves national moral, but I don't see the functional difference if they still can't restrict movement. The time to actually get out ahead of this thing was 6 weeks ago, back when nobody in this Country took it seriously at all, good luck finding a President or head of the CDC willing to commit career suicide by imposing travel bans and bans on gatherings preemptively when people still think it's all media hype "but the flu".

Again, no doubt Trump is going to fuck a lot of things up in response to this, but I don't think we'd be in a significantly different spot today under different leadership.
 

jonKranked

Detective Dookie
Nov 10, 2005
88,769
26,985
media blackout
That's exactly my point, we have the same number of hospitals now as we did then so what's the difference there? What could have happened under different leadership that won't be happening now? We've never actually been prepared for that situation, fully staffed CDC or not. We were exactly as ill prepared for Ebola as we are for Covid-19, but since it never really got out of hand, almost purely by luck, we forgot all about it and did nothing to prepare for the next potential pandemic.

Without the will and ability to restrict movement, the virus still spreads and the hospitals still get overwhelmed. A fully staffed CDC improves national moral, but I don't see the functional difference if they still can't restrict movement. The time to actually get out ahead of this thing was 6 weeks ago, back when nobody in this Country took it seriously at all, good luck finding a President or head of the CDC willing to commit career suicide by imposing travel bans and bans on gatherings preemptively when people still think it's all media hype "but the flu".

Again, no doubt Trump is going to fuck a lot of things up in response to this, but I don't think we'd be in a significantly different spot today under different leadership.
man and i thought i was cynical.
 

chuffer

Turbo Monkey
Sep 2, 2004
1,788
1,132
McMinnville, OR
Serious(ly long) question: In that link that JBP posted it mentioned that in the current flu season we (the USA) are at 21M medical visits and 560k hospitalizations. Per the CDC there have been 34M Flu illnesses, 360k hospitalizations and 20k deaths. Also per the CDC, confirmed & presumptive COVID-19 cases is currently at 938 and deaths are at 29.

If we bump those COVID-19 numbers by 2 orders of magnitude for increased contagion, under-reporting, etc., we are at 93.8k cases and 2.9k deaths from COVID-19 thus far. That is still a factor of 4 lower for cases (compared against hospitalizations) and 6 lower for death than the flu.

What are the factors that I am missing that make the COVID-19 so much worse?

The only factor that I can see that is not accounted for is length of season - the flu season probably did start earlier, but I cannot see length of season making up the difference.

I am honest-to-dog not trolling.

Fwiw, My job requires me to be out in public interacting with people daily. I am extermely careful not to shake hands or touch high risk surfaces, I wash my hands constantly and fold my hands under my arms to keep from touching my face (no shit!), but it feels more like I am just hedging my bets / minimizing risk than really protecting myself...thus the question...
 

Pesqueeb

bicycle in airplane hangar
Feb 2, 2007
41,801
19,117
Riding the baggage carousel.

"no body knew airlines flew to europe, its extraordinary, really" - Donald, probably
My employers stock is down 5.75 so far.

Looks like I'm getting back into the stock purchase program!
 

stevew

resident influencer
Sep 21, 2001
41,158
10,096
Serious(ly long) question: In that link that JBP posted it mentioned that in the current flu season we (the USA) are at 21M medical visits and 560k hospitalizations. Per the CDC there have been 34M Flu illnesses, 360k hospitalizations and 20k deaths. Also per the CDC, confirmed & presumptive COVID-19 cases is currently at 938 and deaths are at 29.

If we bump those COVID-19 numbers by 2 orders of magnitude for increased contagion, under-reporting, etc., we are at 93.8k cases and 2.9k deaths from COVID-19 thus far. That is still a factor of 4 lower for cases (compared against hospitalizations) and 6 lower for death than the flu.

What are the factors that I am missing that make the COVID-19 so much worse?

The only factor that I can see that is not accounted for is length of season - the flu season probably did start earlier, but I cannot see length of season making up the difference.

I am honest-to-dog not trolling.

Fwiw, My job requires me to be out in public interacting with people daily. I am extermely careful not to shake hands or touch high risk surfaces, I wash my hands constantly and fold my hands under my arms to keep from touching my face (no shit!), but it feels more like I am just hedging my bets / minimizing risk than really protecting myself...thus the question...
remember 2009

there were 10,000 deaths from swine flu in 2009....1,000 or so of them children
 

jonKranked

Detective Dookie
Nov 10, 2005
88,769
26,985
media blackout
Serious(ly long) question: In that link that JBP posted it mentioned that in the current flu season we (the USA) are at 21M medical visits and 560k hospitalizations. Per the CDC there have been 34M Flu illnesses, 360k hospitalizations and 20k deaths. Also per the CDC, confirmed & presumptive COVID-19 cases is currently at 938 and deaths are at 29.

If we bump those COVID-19 numbers by 2 orders of magnitude for increased contagion, under-reporting, etc., we are at 93.8k cases and 2.9k deaths from COVID-19 thus far. That is still a factor of 4 lower for cases (compared against hospitalizations) and 6 lower for death than the flu.

What are the factors that I am missing that make the COVID-19 so much worse?

The only factor that I can see that is not accounted for is length of season - the flu season probably did start earlier, but I cannot see length of season making up the difference.

I am honest-to-dog not trolling.

Fwiw, My job requires me to be out in public interacting with people daily. I am extermely careful not to shake hands or touch high risk surfaces, I wash my hands constantly and fold my hands under my arms to keep from touching my face (no shit!), but it feels more like I am just hedging my bets / minimizing risk than really protecting myself...thus the question...
one of the factors in there is also time. the flu numbers are over a longer duration than covid-19, which is spreading at a much higher rate and will ultimately compound the situation. there's also no treatment whatsoever for covid-19, isolation to prevent spread is really the only option.
 

jonKranked

Detective Dookie
Nov 10, 2005
88,769
26,985
media blackout
21 cases in my state. the county I live in has the highest number at 13, including 1 in my township.

saw on FB this morning that apparently the county has set up tents for testing in our township.
 

jonKranked

Detective Dookie
Nov 10, 2005
88,769
26,985
media blackout
just posted by my township:

In response to the rapidly evolving coronavirus situation, the Montgomery County Department of Public Safety and Office of Public Health have deployed assets to 2765 Egypt Road in Lower Providence Township. These assets, which include the large inflatable tents passersby may have seen, have been placed at this location to support expanded COVID-19 testing capabilities, should the need arise in the future. County officials have confirmed that this prepositioning of assets is simply part of a contingency plan that is not operational at this time. The township is in communication with Montgomery County officials, and will provide updates as they become available.
 

Toshi

butthole powerwashing evangelist
Oct 23, 2001
39,721
8,733
3 Denver Public Schools now closed. Wife is going to pull our kids come Monday (or possibly tomorrow), anticipating DPS as a whole will follow suit soon.
 

AngryMetalsmith

Business is good, thanks for asking
Jun 4, 2006
22,041
12,732
I have no idea where I am
Serious(ly long) question: In that link that JBP posted it mentioned that in the current flu season we (the USA) are at 21M medical visits and 560k hospitalizations. Per the CDC there have been 34M Flu illnesses, 360k hospitalizations and 20k deaths. Also per the CDC, confirmed & presumptive COVID-19 cases is currently at 938 and deaths are at 29.

If we bump those COVID-19 numbers by 2 orders of magnitude for increased contagion, under-reporting, etc., we are at 93.8k cases and 2.9k deaths from COVID-19 thus far. That is still a factor of 4 lower for cases (compared against hospitalizations) and 6 lower for death than the flu.

What are the factors that I am missing that make the COVID-19 so much worse?

The only factor that I can see that is not accounted for is length of season - the flu season probably did start earlier, but I cannot see length of season making up the difference.

I am honest-to-dog not trolling.

Fwiw, My job requires me to be out in public interacting with people daily. I am extermely careful not to shake hands or touch high risk surfaces, I wash my hands constantly and fold my hands under my arms to keep from touching my face (no shit!), but it feels more like I am just hedging my bets / minimizing risk than really protecting myself...thus the question...
Comparing Covid-19 to the flu is only helping to spread mis-information and thus increasing risk. The mortality rate for the flu is 0.1% whereas it’s 2-3% for Covid-19. That’s 20 to 30 times more fatal than the flu. Mortality rates for those over 80 with certain pre-existing conditions are significantly higher.

Right now, I am extremely concerned about my parents who are in that category.
 
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stoney

Part of the unwashed, middle-American horde
Jul 26, 2006
22,001
7,883
Colorado
Half my clients are virtual only now. I have just been pulled back to internal for all non-scheduled time to handle call volume.
 

rideit

Bob the Builder
Aug 24, 2004
24,652
12,458
In the cleavage of the Tetons
If we bump those COVID-19 numbers by 2 orders of magnitude for increased contagion, under-reporting, etc., we are at 93.8k cases and 2.9k deaths from COVID-19 thus far. That is still a factor of 4 lower for cases (compared against hospitalizations) and 6 lower for death than the flu.

What are the factors that I am missing that make the COVID-19 so much worse?
continue your own extrapolation to its logical conclusion, and you have your answer.