Private tab worked for me.
TLDR, isolate and stay away from people. Northern Italy is currently effed.
CoVID-19
TLDR, isolate and stay away from people. Northern Italy is currently effed.
Playing with the numbers today. Comparing Seattle (King County) to national Corona numbers. Seattle is the hotspot and "bleeding edge" of the pandemic in the US. I am trying to see if trends locally can predict what is happening nationally. Unfortunately I don't have daily counts for more than a few days here, but it doesn't matter, isolation practices should reduce transmission rates so we should have a new "system" to model. As we can se, nationally we have a an exponential transmission rate, about 25% each day, Only 15% in Seattle. Hopefully the lower rate in Seattle is because of the 12 days or so of regional social isolation. Further measures applied this week, hopefully the numbers will start showing that. We should be able to see if any of this is helping as the exponential model will start to break, or the daily transmission percentage should drop.
If anyone wonders why we are doing this, if the current system stands, in 10 days things will get pretty ugly, 120,000 or so cases, with 4000 or so dying from it, assuming hospitals can actually care for people, if not the numbers will be higher.
If anyone wonders why we are doing this, if the current system stands, in 10 days things will get pretty ugly, 120,000 or so cases, with 4000 or so dying from it, assuming hospitals can actually care for people, if not the numbers will be higher.
What is sad is China was able to stop exponential transmission rather quickly. The rest of the world could see what happens and prepare, and we didn't. And now that we see what is coming it is rather late.
Everything elective @ my hospital cancelled (finally!) and PACU/OR/other special procedure area RNs getting quick crash course the next couple days on basic ICU hemodynamics/vent care/etc.
Limited drive-thru testing during the day, specs sent to state lab.
Roughly 200 employees out for furlough/quarantine at the moment.
Management out like rats off a sinking ship.
Limited drive-thru testing during the day, specs sent to state lab.
Roughly 200 employees out for furlough/quarantine at the moment.
Management out like rats off a sinking ship.
I have a fear that this school year is fucked. One province in Canada has already come out and said so; I'm thinking it's not a long shot that others will follow.
We're trying to get our kids into a new routine: breakfast, 1 hour of work, prep lunch, outdoor play/family play, screen time, dinner, bedtime. Goes by fast. If we have to work from home for an extended period of time, I think the afternoons will be out best bet.
E made schedule for the girls to follow, but she works for HR for the city now, in our living room, so unplanned the girls have been my world & I was supposed to be in FL this week. :/
Just saw CA schools are closed until Fall
We had a very unpleasant family meeting tonight explaining to (12 YO) kiddo that he doesn’t just get to surf all day, he is still ‘in school’. It will be a work in progress, but basically, if he doesn’t get a few hours of online curriculum done each day, no fucking devices. There were tears.
however, aside from the trainer, I surf all day...
however, aside from the trainer, I surf all day...
both my nephews were not happy about school being shut down....both of them love school....
My kid gets (pretty much) straight A’s, but he really dislikes the physical reality of school
So they are intelligent. Can do well at school but know they want to have fun outside of school.
Heads up to you parentals, at least here in Ca, school work is not mandatory. Better start planning your speech about why it’s important to do the work despite it not ultimately mattering before they get wise to it. My wife’s students found out this fact and she went from 157 out of 160 students doing the work yesterday to 34 out of 160 today. These kids are not going to be fluent in Spanish after the Coronavirus that’s for sure.
The Dialysis Centers and nursing homes have become Fort Knox. You don't get in unless you pass screening and there is a medical necessity. I stood outside in full PPE and they brought the clients to me.
I am in full gear all day. When I get home I enter through the garage. All my clothes go directly into the washing machine. My boots get disinfected and I immediately go shower. No way I am tracking that shit into the house.
You guys should be leaving your outside shoes outside. Think about how many sick folks coughed and sneezed uncovered at the market you just walked through.
If you want to get extreme disinfect all the dry goods you bring home from the market before putting them in the pantry. The virus can live for days on some surfaces.
I am in full gear all day. When I get home I enter through the garage. All my clothes go directly into the washing machine. My boots get disinfected and I immediately go shower. No way I am tracking that shit into the house.
You guys should be leaving your outside shoes outside. Think about how many sick folks coughed and sneezed uncovered at the market you just walked through.
If you want to get extreme disinfect all the dry goods you bring home from the market before putting them in the pantry. The virus can live for days on some surfaces.
My kids are loaded with work.
I think it's bullshit at this time as they're struggling with the reality of the situation.
We're not going to push them until next week.
Both are 4.0 gpa kids but, like my wifes daily conference calls, this just feels like busy work.
ayup. wearing my old/crap scrubs and t-shirts for the moment. not as if it matter what i'm wearing when all gowned up/shoe covered/masked. they get swapped out for clean before going home. then right into a bag, and washer once there. if I need to toss 'em, no biggie. my work clogs don't go home at all. i go into a nice hot shower with a beer and clorhex washing.
Start of a new curve being reported on this evenings news in CO, 7000 people filed for unemployment today.
Scrublover. I don't know about you but I am at peace doing what we do and understanding the risk that we are taking. Maybe for me it's the result of 12 years on the Fire Engine and 20 years of EMS being on the front lines knowing that every time I walk out the front door I might not come home. But hell I'm doing what I love doing. Whats that line from Star Trek ? The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few or the one.... Stay safe bro
Crossposted from my bookface:
A brief discussion on mortality rates.
One line of argument I’ve seen advanced is that the true mortality rate from covid-19 is lower than reported. This is due to the background high incidence of asymptomatic infection transmission. (I read a modeling paper that estimated that 68% of all transmission in Wuhan was via such asymptomatic and thus non-tested carriers. The cruise ships also offer their own mini-experiments wrt infection rates and mortality.)
Fine. This may actually be true, and at some point via widespread testing or perhaps antibody prevalence after the fact we may be able to falsify or verify it.
I would argue that this doesn’t matter, though. What matters is that the infectious system’s net effect on mortality is still doubling in Italy and the US. If this is driven largely by the pool of asymptomatic infected then said pool will become saturated rather quickly. In this case we will hit the inflection point on deaths earlier, and at that time it’d be appropriate to roll back social distancing measures that are having a strong chilling effect on the world’s economy.
But until that inflection point is reached the downside risk of duplicating northern Italy’s experience with their healthcare system being frankly overwhelmed is greater than the economic pain, IMO.
We have to be cognizant that what we have bought into may be wrong, this may be an overreaction given the severity of disease, and the prescribed course may need to be adjusted. But my argument here is that reaching an inflection point in death rates is a concrete datum that we can look for. (NB. note lack of reference to case counts as that’s very unreliable when testing has been so sparse. Hard outcomes better here, I think.)
A brief discussion on mortality rates.
One line of argument I’ve seen advanced is that the true mortality rate from covid-19 is lower than reported. This is due to the background high incidence of asymptomatic infection transmission. (I read a modeling paper that estimated that 68% of all transmission in Wuhan was via such asymptomatic and thus non-tested carriers. The cruise ships also offer their own mini-experiments wrt infection rates and mortality.)
Fine. This may actually be true, and at some point via widespread testing or perhaps antibody prevalence after the fact we may be able to falsify or verify it.
I would argue that this doesn’t matter, though. What matters is that the infectious system’s net effect on mortality is still doubling in Italy and the US. If this is driven largely by the pool of asymptomatic infected then said pool will become saturated rather quickly. In this case we will hit the inflection point on deaths earlier, and at that time it’d be appropriate to roll back social distancing measures that are having a strong chilling effect on the world’s economy.
But until that inflection point is reached the downside risk of duplicating northern Italy’s experience with their healthcare system being frankly overwhelmed is greater than the economic pain, IMO.
We have to be cognizant that what we have bought into may be wrong, this may be an overreaction given the severity of disease, and the prescribed course may need to be adjusted. But my argument here is that reaching an inflection point in death rates is a concrete datum that we can look for. (NB. note lack of reference to case counts as that’s very unreliable when testing has been so sparse. Hard outcomes better here, I think.)
We explained it to him in terms of lifelong learning habits that he would benefit from in the future when it matters, such as if he were in college and there was a disruption...just do the work. And the love of learning for learnings sake. He sees me study Spanish for ~20 minutes a day, so I actually do set an example.
ironically, he is *close* to fluent in conversational (mostly present tense) Spanish...
Agreed. Fell into this by accident, but 20+ years in the ICU, and tough as it can be, I still love it.
You as well!
they enjoy doing the work.
For a second I thought man you have some cool as kid just wanting to hit some badass waves on his board but then I remembered its 2020.
U.S. Virus Plan Anticipates 18-Month Pandemic and Widespread Shortages (Published 2020)
The 100-page federal plan laid out a grim prognosis and outlined a response that would activate agencies across the government.
And then, nature came back. Venice has got the clearest water in decades right now. Fish everywhere.
Cagliari has got dolphins in the port.
Cagliari has got dolphins in the port.
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I saw a pretty remarkable visualization of the change in air pollution in northern Italy that i can't seem to find at the moment. At the same time, there are also less schoolyard fights at the moment, doesn't mean we should be aiming to keep the schools closed forever.And then, nature came back. Venice has got the clearest water in decades right now. Fish everywhere.
Cagliari has got dolphins in the port.
A significant reduction in tourism would do Venice in particular a world of good, that's out of the question.
Edit: found it
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And here I was perusing the FID/LTC courses last night. At least those are still available to book.
Mass Firearms is near you i think and they have frequent classes.
I know a couple guys who could give you 1-1 class as well.
I'd call your PD and see if you can set an appointment up with a licensing officer.
It's interesting that as an out-of-stater, I can get a Massachusetts CC permit simply by doing the paperwork and paying the fee - don't have to do the ritual horseshit. It's moot because I don't carry.
You don't need a permit now, silly. Just cough real loud if they want to search you.
I renewed my LTC on Monday. Line out the door of the Sheriff's office when I got there and it never got shorter. Didn't take long though, in and out in 10 min.
