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CoVID-19

Westy

Westy

the teste
Nov 22, 2002
55,944
21,977
Sleazattle
Toshi said:
View attachment 142311

(look beyond this one tweet and read this)

As we await what is anticipated to be the swell of cases coming to all of our hospitals, a thought:

Do we have good evidence that social distancing will actually work? I had taken solace in limited city-level pseudo-experimental data such as those in the above tweet from Bergamo (locked down Mar 8) and Lodi (locked down Feb 23).

But meanwhile Italy as a country has not flattened its curve despite being more than the median incubation period from its countrywide lockdown. Could those cities' difference be explained by some other confounder, like different demographics or a large parade or the like? (I don't know.)

Simultaneously we have the example of Japan, which no one seems to be talking about. (China may not be applicable since 60M locked down +/- fabricated numbers to smooth that tail. South Korea tested and tracked, a stage that we are well past.)

In Japan there are not widespread lockdowns or travel restrictions, afaik. They have not thrown their economy into a tailspin as has the rest of the world. They are not undertesting grossly as are we (and Russia, and Africa, etc.). Yet their infection and especially death rate is low.

Is it because they already wore masks as social custom when even possibly sick? Is it because they washed their hands regularly before? Do ethnic Japanese express ACE-R at different rates?

As this drags on I hope that the scientists in public policy are paying attention to what works, and what doesn't. Because we are trying to be Italy, only reacting earlier, yet what Italy's been doing doesn't look that great at this snapshot in time...
Click to expand...
There are huge social differences that will make a huge difference. Bowing, a handshake or warm embrace when you greet someone?

Although still exponential in growth, rates are half as much in Seattle as nationally. Perhaps because we really first heard about this after handfuls of old coots were dying in our neighborhoods, we took it more seriously than the rest of the country.
 
Jm_

Jm_

sled dog's bollocks
Jan 14, 2002
20,066
10,631
AK
Westy said:
There are huge social differences that will make a huge difference. Bowing, a handshake or warm embrace when you greet someone?

Although still exponential in growth, rates are half as much in Seattle as nationally. Perhaps because we really first heard about this after handfuls of old coots were dying in our neighborhoods, we took it more seriously than the rest of the country.
Click to expand...
Yeah, a dipshit story on our backcoutry skiing FB page said "don't go splitboarding and spread disease", except reading the story, the guy writing it got CV because they passed around a jug of maple syrup to swig, no shit. Well fuck, yeah, probably don't do stupid shit. Maybe stupid people should stay home, but dear god, simple stuff can make a huge difference.
 
Westy

Westy

the teste
Nov 22, 2002
55,944
21,977
Sleazattle
Jm_ said:
Yeah, a dipshit story on our backcoutry skiing FB page said "don't go splitboarding and spread disease", except reading the story, the guy writing it got CV because they passed around a jug of maple syrup to swig, no shit. Well fuck, yeah, probably don't do stupid shit. Maybe stupid people should stay home, but dear god, simple stuff can make a huge difference.
Click to expand...

Yeah, some people are freaking out on the local biking page pleading people not to ride, just take walks in the neighborhood
Fuck, the sidewalks in my neighborhood look like a continuous street party. I had to ask 4 women to get oof my stoop today so I could check the mail.
 
stevew

stevew

resident influencer
Sep 21, 2001
41,124
10,078
Westy said:
Fuck, the sidewalks in my neighborhood look like a continuous street party. I had to ask 4 women to get oof my stoop today so I could check the mail.
Click to expand...
you could open your door and toss a burning bag of shit on the stoop....see if they stomp it out?
 
AngryMetalsmith

AngryMetalsmith

Business is good, thanks for asking
Jun 4, 2006
22,005
12,680
I have no idea where I am
Westy said:
Yeah, some people are freaking out on the local biking page pleading people not to ride, just take walks in the neighborhood
Fuck, the sidewalks in my neighborhood look like a continuous street party. I had to ask 4 women to get oof my stoop today so I could check the mail.
Click to expand...
I tried to ride out to the lake on the greenway and had to turn back because the air was just too thick with stupid. Way too many people in groups and or taking their half out of the middle.

I'm turning into moar of an angry asshole. I don't care if you want to hug me or mug me, stay the fuck back !
 
Jm_

Jm_

sled dog's bollocks
Jan 14, 2002
20,066
10,631
AK
Westy said:
Yeah, some people are freaking out on the local biking page pleading people not to ride, just take walks in the neighborhood
Fuck, the sidewalks in my neighborhood look like a continuous street party. I had to ask 4 women to get oof my stoop today so I could check the mail.
Click to expand...
But luckily the people taking walks own and take 12 dogs off leash with them.

Our trails are pretty normal though. We tend to see a surge this time of the year when people who bought fatbikes take them out for the 2 weeks when the temps are in the mid 30s, never to be ridden again till the same time next year. Even with that, it's been chill on the trails.

A horse started up one of our trails when I finished today. I kind of stood there glaring, they went up a few hundred feet, the horse pooped, and the most amazing thing happened. The rider got off the horse and use some paddle-device to scoop the poop off the trail. Then she decided not to do that trail (primarily a bike trail, part of bike network built by local bike club) and turned around and went elsewhere. That's the stuff of fairy tales right there.
 
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ALEXIS_DH

ALEXIS_DH

Tirelessly Awesome
Jan 30, 2003
6,167
803
Lima, Peru, Peru
At this point.... I think we, as a society, should be looking at the next 30-60-90 days and beyond.
Whatever is going to happen the next 2-3 weeks, is already decided, martial law or not.

Life after the quarantine is what makes me worried. We should be ramping up production of ventilators, face masks, gowns and PPE for medical personnel.. and also for the general population.

People cant be out of work 30-60 days.... in some places of the world, this can cause as many deaths as the pandemic itself. I dont see many options for life coming back to "normal", other than wearing PPEs everyday and trying to work/keep business as usual as much as possible.
 
Westy

Westy

the teste
Nov 22, 2002
55,944
21,977
Sleazattle
Nutty religious relatives in Kansas are sending themselves thoughts and prayers. I hope they are washing their hands too. Don't know if they will be able to figure out that T&P doesn't work. They are in Kansas, I don't know how you tell the difference between that and death.
 
Mo(n)arch

Mo(n)arch

Turbo Monkey
Dec 27, 2010
4,459
1,457
Italy/south Tyrol
Italy closing companys that are not related to survival.
So, we‘re basically ruined I guess. Well, half the country is already possessed by China anyway, maybe we‘ll get batsoup on the daily in the future, who knows.

Europe is completely fucked. Just wait a week or two.
 
iRider

iRider

Turbo Monkey
Apr 5, 2008
5,686
3,143
Mo(n)arch said:
Italy closing companys that are not related to survival.
So, we‘re basically ruined I guess. Well, half the country is already possessed by China anyway, maybe we‘ll get batsoup on the daily in the future, who knows.

Europe is completely fucked. Just wait a week or two.
Click to expand...
Always the optimist....
 
jonKranked

jonKranked

Detective Dookie
Nov 10, 2005
88,666
26,903
media blackout
Toshi said:
View attachment 142311

(look beyond this one tweet and read this)

As we await what is anticipated to be the swell of cases coming to all of our hospitals, a thought:

Do we have good evidence that social distancing will actually work? I had taken solace in limited city-level pseudo-experimental data such as those in the above tweet from Bergamo (locked down Mar 8) and Lodi (locked down Feb 23).

But meanwhile Italy as a country has not flattened its curve despite being more than the median incubation period from its countrywide lockdown. Could those cities' difference be explained by some other confounder, like different demographics or a large parade or the like? (I don't know.)

Simultaneously we have the example of Japan, which no one seems to be talking about. (China may not be applicable since 60M locked down +/- fabricated numbers to smooth that tail. South Korea tested and tracked, a stage that we are well past.)

In Japan there are not widespread lockdowns or travel restrictions, afaik. They have not thrown their economy into a tailspin as has the rest of the world. They are not undertesting grossly as are we (and Russia, and Africa, etc.). Yet their infection and especially death rate is low.

Is it because they already wore masks as social custom when even possibly sick? Is it because they washed their hands regularly before? Do ethnic Japanese express ACE-R at different rates?

As this drags on I hope that the scientists in public policy are paying attention to what works, and what doesn't. Because we are trying to be Italy, only reacting earlier, yet what Italy's been doing doesn't look that great at this snapshot in time...
Click to expand...
Japan doesn't have fox news freedum fighters and spring break partiers bro
 
Mo(n)arch

Mo(n)arch

Turbo Monkey
Dec 27, 2010
4,459
1,457
Italy/south Tyrol
iRider said:
Always the optimist....
Click to expand...
Na, just being realistic. Since Germany , the UK and others weren‘t taking it very seriously until now, things will get very interesting very fast in yurp.
Regarding Italy, the state has around 2,4 trillions of debt and a weak economy. Keep in mind that the economically strongest region is also the most affected one. Italy will face a very difficult future, unless some sort of debt relief will happen.
 
johnbryanpeters

johnbryanpeters

Hero
Sep 27, 2001
36,775
18,284
Making moss sad in New Haven, Vermont
Mo(n)arch said:
Na, just being realistic. Since Germany , the UK and others weren‘t taking it very seriously until now, things will get very interesting very fast in yurp.
Regarding Italy, the state has around 2,4 trillions of debt and a weak economy. Keep in mind that the economically strongest region is also the most affected one. Italy will face a very difficult future, unless some sort of debt relief will happen.
Click to expand...
Greece V II?
 
dan-o

dan-o

Turbo Monkey
Jun 30, 2004
6,499
2,805
jonKranked said:
Japan doesn't have fox news freedum fighters and spring break partiers bro
Click to expand...
Do they have educated millennial doctors who simply can't wait to be fabulous?
The stupid crosses all spectrum of society.

www.bostonglobe.com

A Boston doctor and five friends went to Miami. All six came back sick, at least four with the coronavirus - The Boston Globe

The story of a group of men who went to Miami illustrates just how quickly the coronavirus spreads between close contacts and how easily an infected person can unwittingly expose others.
www.bostonglobe.com www.bostonglobe.com
 
johnbryanpeters

johnbryanpeters

Hero
Sep 27, 2001
36,775
18,284
Making moss sad in New Haven, Vermont
dan-o said:
Do they have educated millennial doctors who simply can't wait to be fabulous?
The stupid crosses all spectrum of society.

www.bostonglobe.com

A Boston doctor and five friends went to Miami. All six came back sick, at least four with the coronavirus - The Boston Globe

The story of a group of men who went to Miami illustrates just how quickly the coronavirus spreads between close contacts and how easily an infected person can unwittingly expose others.
www.bostonglobe.com www.bostonglobe.com
Click to expand...
Is it news to you that we do not, en masse, behave rationally?
 
mandown

mandown

Poopdeck Repost
Jun 1, 2004
21,629
9,003
Transylvania 90210
Toshi

Toshi

butthole powerwashing evangelist
Oct 23, 2001
39,642
8,685
If this doesn’t burn out fairly quickly on its own via herd immunity accomplished via high asymptomatic background infection then I am very pessimistic.

We cannot financially sustain this level of inactivity, whether on the local, regional, national, or worldwide scale, and if it doesn’t burn out we would need to sustain this until a vaccine came out.

I don’t think that’s feasible.
 
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jonKranked

jonKranked

Detective Dookie
Nov 10, 2005
88,666
26,903
media blackout
Toshi said:
If this doesn’t burn out fairly quickly on its own via herd immunity accomplished via high asymptomatic background infection then I am very pessimistic.

We cannot financially sustain this level of inactivity, whether on the local, regional, national, or worldwide scale, and if it doesn’t burn out we would need to sustain this until an vaccine came out.

I don’t think that’s feasible.
Click to expand...
Bootstraps.
 
Toshi

Toshi

butthole powerwashing evangelist
Oct 23, 2001
39,642
8,685
On the upside, as long as the underlying supply chains hold up our groceries should look normal in a few weeks, as those who panic bought initially then start to work their ways through their stashes of bread, pasta, and milk.
 
jonKranked

jonKranked

Detective Dookie
Nov 10, 2005
88,666
26,903
media blackout
Toshi said:
On the upside, as long as the underlying supply chains hold up our groceries should look normal in a few weeks, as those who panic bought initially then start to work their ways through their stashes of bread, pasta, and milk.
Click to expand...
The two biggest potential problems I see are potential disruptions to the fruits and veggies we import if borders close, and having enough healthy workers to operate the required steps in the supply chain.
 
Pesqueeb

Pesqueeb

bicycle in airplane hangar
Feb 2, 2007
41,726
19,025
Riding the baggage carousel.
jonKranked said:
The two biggest potential problems I see are potential disruptions to the fruits and veggies we import if borders close, and having enough healthy workers to operate the required steps in the supply chain.
Click to expand...
www.npr.org

COVID-19 Threatens Food Supply Chain As Farms Worry About Workers Falling Ill

COVID-19 has turned one end of the food industry — stores and restaurants — on its head. At the other end, food production hums along as usual, but that could change if workers catch the virus.
www.npr.org www.npr.org
 
stoney

stoney

Part of the unwashed, middle-American horde
Jul 26, 2006
21,993
7,868
Colorado
Toshi said:
On the upside, as long as the underlying supply chains hold up our groceries should look normal in a few weeks, as those who panic bought initially then start to work their ways through their stashes of bread, pasta, and milk.
Click to expand...
Milk in 4 weeks (all the single serving lunch stuff too), pasta in 6, bread in 8 (we freeze a lot and eat it slowly). It's the eggs that are the issue... This might be our trigger to put in a chicken coop into the backyard.
 
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