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ALEXIS_DH

Tirelessly Awesome
Jan 30, 2003
6,147
796
Lima, Peru, Peru
You know what would be a cool wager for online bet sites?

Odds of Donald Trump getting Coronavirus, and Odds of DT dying from coronavirus.
That be ultimate drop-the-mic, spike-the-ball karma.
 

eaterofdog

ass grabber
Sep 8, 2006
8,357
1,606
Central Florida
You know what would be a cool wager for online bet sites?

Odds of Donald Trump getting Coronavirus, and Odds of DT dying from coronavirus.
That be ultimate drop-the-mic, spike-the-ball karma.
He's got some of the best medical care in the world. He's not gonna die. Worst case scenario they transplant lungs from some immigrant.
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,421
7,805

Extrapolating from the country given the localized nature of the hot zones is iffy, but here goes:

Doubling time on deaths is about 3 days but there aren't many data yet. Let's call it 4 to be conservative.

March 23 saw 140 deaths logged. So March 26 280, 560 on the 29th.

April 12 will be 20 days from March 23. That'd be 2^5 * 140 so if we hew to this curve then by Trump's "start the nation back up day" we will be seeing about 4,480 deaths... per day.

@Westy what are your number-divination efforts yielding in terms of predictions?
 

stevew

resident influencer
Sep 21, 2001
40,618
9,620
Yellowstone and GTNP closed indefinitely. That’s where we usually ride in April when the roads are closed to cars.
i am disappointed i will not be reading about someone being gored by a bison soon.....
 

DaveW

Space Monkey
Jul 2, 2001
11,234
2,772
The bunker at parliament

Westy

the teste
Nov 22, 2002
54,511
20,311
Sleazattle
If 3.5 day doubling time holds true as per this tweet then that'd be 7,350 deaths per day on April 12 instead.

Actually my exponential death rate model is broken for the whole country. I assume it is due to the virus hitting different areas at later times which would increase the infected population and change the model. So what I have is simple and probably very conservative. But if things continue exponentially according to this best fit there will be 30,000 or so dead by April 12th. April 12th would be day 41 or X=41.
Capture10.JPG


If I only look at recent data that matches and exponential curve well, the formula isy = 75.172e^(0.2993x). April 12th would be x=27 and the body count is 243,000 :(

Edit: copy and pasted the wrong formula. corrected.

Churches may be full on Easter, with bodies.
 
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ALEXIS_DH

Tirelessly Awesome
Jan 30, 2003
6,147
796
Lima, Peru, Peru
Anybody read about denmark recovery plan?
Pretty interesting stuff. 13% of gdp direct incentive....
i,d guess it will work, given some countries will be on ruins in 6-12 months.

Those still operatiobal by then, will command a bigger marketshare of tbe global market
 

iRider

Turbo Monkey
Apr 5, 2008
5,653
3,093
Anybody read about denmark recovery plan?
Pretty interesting stuff. 13% of gdp direct incentive....
i,d guess it will work, given some countries will be on ruins in 6-12 months.

Those still operatiobal by then, will command a bigger marketshare of tbe global market
It is a big gamble. It may pay off...or we are bankrupt! :eek:
 

stoney

Part of the unwashed, middle-American horde
Jul 26, 2006
21,659
7,330
Colorado
Fucking 401k will be the ultimate destroyer of this nation.
Which is why pensions are fucking amazing... And LOOK! Most of developed Europe has them, unlike us.

On a side note, if the companies that Boomers have all their money invested in go boom and the companies that they all get their pensions from go boom does that mean they become dependent on the younger generations to support them? The younger generations that they told to sit and spin? All while they are dropping like flies because the refuse to listen to anybody telling them what's actually good for them?

I know realistically that's not what's going to happen, but god damn, that would be fucking hilarious. In a very, very dark way.
 

Montana rider

Turbo Monkey
Mar 14, 2005
1,761
2,218
Always look on the bright side of life...


NRA to cut salaries, brace for layoffs as coronavirus disrupts fundraising, internal memo states
The National Rifle Association of America headquarters building in Fairfax.

The National Rifle Association is cutting salaries 20 percent and bracing for layoffs...

ETA: From your lips to FSM ears:


Glen Beck: “I would rather have my children stay home and all of us who are over 50 go in and keep this economy going and working,” he continued. “Even if we all get sick, I’d rather die than kill the country, because it’s not the economy that’s dying, it’s the country.”
 
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stevew

resident influencer
Sep 21, 2001
40,618
9,620

Westy

the teste
Nov 22, 2002
54,511
20,311
Sleazattle
What are the odds that Trump's strategy is to say everything needs to stay open. Let governor's make the adult decisions. Blame them for any economic results and take credit if we don't end up with mass graves?
 

stevew

resident influencer
Sep 21, 2001
40,618
9,620
Always look on the bright side of life...


NRA to cut salaries, brace for layoffs as coronavirus disrupts fundraising, internal memo states
The National Rifle Association of America headquarters building in Fairfax.

The National Rifle Association is cutting salaries 20 percent and bracing for layoffs...

ETA: From your lips to FSM ears:


Glen Beck: “I would rather have my children stay home and all of us who are over 50 go in and keep this economy going and working,” he continued. “Even if we all get sick, I’d rather die than kill the country, because it’s not the economy that’s dying, it’s the country.”
was glenn crying when he said it?
 

stevew

resident influencer
Sep 21, 2001
40,618
9,620
What are the odds that Trump's strategy is to say everything needs to stay open. Let governor's make the adult decisions. Blame them for any economic results and take credit if we don't end up with mass graves?
so you would have been alright with trump shutting the country down in january....because you know....we trust his judgement so much?
 

mandown

Poopdeck Repost
Jun 1, 2004
20,287
7,826
Transylvania 90210
Which is why pensions are fucking amazing... And LOOK! Most of developed Europe has them, unlike us.

On a side note, if the companies that Boomers have all their money invested in go boom and the companies that they all get their pensions from go boom does that mean they become dependent on the younger generations to support them? The younger generations that they told to sit and spin? All while they are dropping like flies because the refuse to listen to anybody telling them what's actually good for them?

I know realistically that's not what's going to happen, but god damn, that would be fucking hilarious. In a very, very dark way.
Do you know what percentage of the stock market is made up of 401k or similar retirement plans?

If we didn’t have 401k plans, the market would be that much smaller. You’d move the risk from the individual’s portfolio to the individual’s employer. If the market/portfolio tanks, it can come back. If an employer shuts their doors, then where does that leave a retired person?

I get that the 401k is better in some situations and a pension is better in others. I can also see how the shift from pensions to 401k plans has altered the dependency on the market’ performance and values.