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Toshi

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,361
7,760
By my same "model" if the total is ultimately 500,000 US dead then we will see a peak of around 30,000/day, 12 days after hitting 5,000/day. (This is not quite accurate as I didn't lengthen the tails, but as a very crude approximation of a short equation it'll work.)

I sure hope we hit that inflection point indicating R0 < 1 well before this, because that's horrifying both at an abstract level and for what it'll look like at my hospital if CO follows the national trend.
 
Full Trucker

Full Trucker

Frikkin newb!!!
Feb 26, 2003
10,561
7,662
Exit, CO
stoney said:
And push the buttons for the zip code? what is the likelihood that the gas station clerk is really going to wipe or spray the device after every swipe?
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I can send you money using my phone. I’ve paid for parking in a pay parking lot on my phone. I can have groceries delivered to my house using my phone. I can summon a car and driver to take me anywhere I need to go with my phone.

This is not an insurmountable problem.
 
jimmydean

jimmydean

The Official Meat of Ridemonkey
Sep 10, 2001
41,244
13,370
Portland, OR
Full Trucker said:
I can send you money using my phone. I’ve paid for parking in a pay parking lot on my phone. I can have groceries delivered to my house using my phone. I can summon a car and driver to take me anywhere I need to go with my phone.

This is not an insurmountable problem.
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You can have 100 gallon storage tanks at home and have it delivered so you don't have to leave the house to fill up. Apparently some rich folks do this. I asked a guy where he got his E98. :rofl:
 
stoney

stoney

Part of the unwashed, middle-American horde
Jul 26, 2006
21,637
7,303
Colorado
jimmydean said:
You can have 100 gallon storage tanks at home and have it delivered so you don't have to leave the house to fill up. Apparently some rich folks do this. I asked a guy where he got his E98. :rofl:
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That's some rich blood.
 
stoney

stoney

Part of the unwashed, middle-American horde
Jul 26, 2006
21,637
7,303
Colorado
johnbryanpeters said:
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When I do the math on number of family members Wifey and I have over given ages, with given risks, in particular regions, I'm assuming at least 2-3 will end up in the hospital possibly 1 will die from this. I've shown the numbers to the family members disregarding things and they continue to do such. Wifey has been having trouble wrapping her head around it somewhat because she has ~20 family members in the risk categories. Fucking Boomers with their selfish "it's not going to happen to me / not my problem" attitude. At least a lot of Gen-X and older Millennials are going to end up in far better financial positions out of all this shit...

To put the tinfoil hat on if you look at the ending of the stretch IRA in January combined with this, if people who had an idea about this thing from our intelligence agencies, especially if it really started late last year but didn't get public until late-Jan, might have positioned this for the tax revenue...
 
6thElement

6thElement

Schrodinger's Immigrant
Jul 29, 2008
15,997
13,250
Doc doesn't think I have bat aids, due to not matching the symptoms fully (mostly no fever or cough) but still not better from whatever I've had for two weeks.
 
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jimmydean

jimmydean

The Official Meat of Ridemonkey
Sep 10, 2001
41,244
13,370
Portland, OR
jimmydean

jimmydean

The Official Meat of Ridemonkey
Sep 10, 2001
41,244
13,370
Portland, OR
johnbryanpeters said:
And apparently likes stupid stale gas.
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Not sure what his rotation is, but I know at least 5 of his cars run E98, but he just bought a Model S and Model 3 because his new house has 5 charging stations. :rofl:

I'll post a pic of his new house in the random thread. His neighbors was listed as the most expensive house in Portland. His will be done in a few more months.
 
kidwoo

kidwoo

Artisanal Tweet Curator
Aug 25, 2003
42,146
13,340
Squirtin ketchup n' mustard on charred flesh
6thElement said:
Doc doesn't think I have bat aids, due to not matching the symptoms fully (mostly no fever or cough) but still not better from whatever I've had for two weeks.
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I'm predicting a bit of a facepalm moment once/if we finally get an anitbody serum test in wide circulation. Running averages on people with positive diagnoses has already shown pretty wide deviations from that 4 point check list everyone holds on to so rigidly.

It's probably my biggest complaint with the medical community in general. Biology isn't always a rigid check list.

I've literally had to sign medical liability release forms to walk out of doctor's offices without plaster casts because broken bone = cast.
 
stevew

stevew

resident influencer
Sep 21, 2001
40,607
9,617
stoney said:
When I do the math on number of family members Wifey and I have over given ages, with given risks, in particular regions, I'm assuming at least 2-3 will end up in the hospital possibly 1 will die from this. I've shown the numbers to the family members disregarding things and they continue to do such. Wifey has been having trouble wrapping her head around it somewhat because she has ~20 family members in the risk categories. Fucking Boomers with their selfish "it's not going to happen to me / not my problem" attitude. At least a lot of Gen-X and older Millennials are going to end up in far better financial positions out of all this shit...

To put the tinfoil hat on if you look at the ending of the stretch IRA in January combined with this, if people who had an idea about this thing from our intelligence agencies, especially if it really started late last year but didn't get public until late-Jan, might have positioned this for the tax revenue...
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impeachment was more important at the end of last year.
 
stoney

stoney

Part of the unwashed, middle-American horde
Jul 26, 2006
21,637
7,303
Colorado
kidwoo said:
I'm predicting a bit of a facepalm moment once/if we finally get an anitbody serum test in wide circulation. Running averages on people with positive diagnoses has already shown pretty wide deviations from that 4 point check list everyone holds on to so rigidly.

It's probably my biggest complaint with the medical community in general. Biology isn't always a rigid check list.

I've literally had to sign medical liability release forms to walk out of doctor's offices without plaster casts because broken bone = cast.
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My Dr. said that even though I haven't had a fever in over a week the fact that I had it and everything else actively checks off was enough. I was also coughing while we were talking and I think that might have helped; it didn't sound great.
 
stevew

stevew

resident influencer
Sep 21, 2001
40,607
9,617
jimmydean said:
One tank of E98, one tank of ethanol free premium and a tank of race fuel in his home shop with scheduled deliveries. He has stupid money.
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way back in the good old days....before kids...my older brother had a 55 gallon drum of race fuel for his toys...
 
stevew

stevew

resident influencer
Sep 21, 2001
40,607
9,617
every day at my brothers house...

kids knocking on door....can max and vincent come out and play?

response....maybe in august.
 
Toshi

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,361
7,760
There’s also the morbid possibility that Social Security solvency will be more likely if a non-negligible proportion of those > 65 die.
 
stoney

stoney

Part of the unwashed, middle-American horde
Jul 26, 2006
21,637
7,303
Colorado
Nick said:
what do you mean by this?
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Dead parents and grandparents = inheritances. It's morbid as fuck, but it's a reality of what's coming downstream. If we have the 500k deaths that some are projecting, that's a lot of people. Not every American will leave people better off, but enough that some people might be able to pay off those school loans or buy those houses they have never been able to.

Also what @Toshi said. Better solvency of SS and a good market rebound.
 
Toshi

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,361
7,760
I have my doubts re positive net worth of many seniors at death. See cases of grandparents co-signing student loans—bad idea in any situation. But perhaps I’m just too pessimistic.
 
stoney

stoney

Part of the unwashed, middle-American horde
Jul 26, 2006
21,637
7,303
Colorado
Toshi said:
I have my doubts re positive net worth of many seniors at death. See cases of grandparents co-signing student loans—bad idea in any situation. But perhaps I’m just too pessimistic.
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I see enough to know that there is money out there. Think about The Villages in FL - There are already confirmed cases and people are living life like normal because Trump. There are 50k seniors there, a lot not in the best of health. It is a relatively high net worth community. It will likely run rampant through that community and places like Leisure World in CA (or whatever they have renamed to to) where you have dense senior populations with high Trump support and Fox followings who spent until maybe days ago, disregarding all educated people saying "stay fucking home".
 
Toshi

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,361
7,760
In case you all come across a meme supposedly about a 2017 movie shown on showtime proving this is faked, here’s the original source of the casket photo:

www.ctvnews.ca

Caskets of African migrants lined up in Italian airport hangar

The coffins of African migrants killed in a shipwreck off the Italian island of Lampedusa were lined up in long rows inside an airport hangar where survivors of the tragedy paid their respects Saturday. All of the caskets had a single white rose on top except for the four of the youngest...
www.ctvnews.ca
 
stoney

stoney

Part of the unwashed, middle-American horde
Jul 26, 2006
21,637
7,303
Colorado
Toshi said:
I like to rip on The Villages for being filled with a bunch of people who I probably would dislike very much, but they’re not representative of the nation.

median net worth $221k:https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bankrate.com/personal-finance/average-net-worth-by-age/amp/

(And what proportion of seniors do you reckon were in inappropriately aggressive equity positions? So $150k now?)
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Honest answer? A lot. The majority of the angry/panicked calls I got were from people who never returned my calls or told me I was wrong when I told them they needed to be more conservative months ago. Usually because the market was going up and Trump.
 
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