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CoVID-19

Westy

Westy

the teste
Nov 22, 2002
56,408
22,493
Sleazattle
Toshi said:
@Westy your thoughts on my brief take on their methods would be appreciated:

http://www.healthdata.org/sites/default/files/files/research_articles/2020/COVID-forecasting-03252020_4.pdf



My interpretation of this: They took Wuhan as a baseline. If a given state implemented all social distancing regimes then they didn't add on any extra time from baseline to peak, as it were. If they did half measures they added on extra fractional days.

Definition of social distancing: school closures, non-essential business closures including bars and restaurants, stay-at-home. States/subregions (WA modeled as Kirkland, rest of King/Pierce, rest of state) w/all 3 get no penalty days for modeled baseline to peak wrt Wuhan.

Implement less than 3 measures, get fractional extra days from baseline to peak added. Implement none and the model assumes that they will be implemented within a week.

So at a crude level this is actually similar to my super-simplistic "match a logistic curve to Wuhan timeline" "model": https://twitter.com/maximumcharacte/status/1243253840389914624

The key assumption here is that the underhood features of the Chinese intervention that reduced R0 to less than 1 in Wuhan will be replicated in all US states that social distance.

I am not sure this will be true.

If this assumption does not hold to be true the observed peaks may be higher than their model.
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Interesting. I think statistical methods are usually a cop out and have avoided them. Since the situation isn't too well know and chaotic it probably is a good approach, but I don't know much about them.

That being said, their approach seem reasonable and a damn good attempt but I don't think anyone knows how well social isolation is working, yet. Rules are one thing, how well people obey them are another. At the end of this I think we will know a lot more about how social isolation rules work, but everything is a guess at this point. Various levels of isolation have been in effect here for over 3 weeks, it seems to have had little effect on confirmed cases, I think anyone could say our testing methods are garbage and that data can't be trusted, we will hopefully start seeing the results in the number of deaths very soon.
 
Westy

Westy

the teste
Nov 22, 2002
56,408
22,493
Sleazattle
Toshi

Toshi

butthole powerwashing evangelist
Oct 23, 2001
40,236
9,122

Concrete things said amidst the hand gestures appropriate for his level of comprehension:

- extending social distancing guidelines through April 30
- predicted peak death rate in 2 weeks per their models

As of now the Worldometer site is reporting 264 deaths in the US today from 525 the day before. I assume this is a statistical fluke or otherwise related to reporting delays given that it's a Sunday. (If it is turning the corner that'd be fantastic. But I am highly doubtful given the trends thus far.)

Anyway, per my logistic "model" this would scale to about 100,000 US deaths if we're ~500 deaths/day yesterday, 3 days doubling time at the moment, and 2 weeks to the peak. 6,218 predicted deaths/day if that curve holds true.

I don't know what models they're using, but I have a suspicion given the 2 week time course that it's the IHME one with which I've spelled out my concerns…
 
norbar

norbar

KESSLER PROBLEM. Just cause
Jun 7, 2007
11,516
1,738
Warsaw :/
The closed all the pumptracks here... My city and the suburbs has 11 concrete pumptracks. All are closed. FFS. They are classified as playgrounds so no fun for you. FFS. I get that covid and all but my road bike is too big and I'm bored.
 
VTApe

VTApe

Monkey
Feb 5, 2005
213
20
Vermont
stoney said:
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Tough to watch that; one thing that stuck out was the fact that they're seeing people in the ER for unrelated issues who appear via various scans to show signs of having had COVID-19. Crazy to think potentially millions of Americans are asymptomatic/unknowing carriers right now.
 
Kevin

Kevin

Turbo Monkey
Sep 6, 2004
4,540
1,007
In Holland sticking my finger in a dike...
Sandro said:
https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-29/coronavirus-choir-outbreak

That does not sound good, at all. Combined with this not yet peer reviewed study from the beginning of March, this thing might spread a lot easier than feared:
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/03/study-highlights-ease-spread-covid-19-viruses
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This has actually been “known” for a while.
Theres just nobody that actually listens to what the experts have been saying.

I posted a video from JRE a while ago where a virologist explained how high virus counts are especially in the mouth and throat of covid cases.
And I posted another one, I think yesterday, from North Koreas Medical authority on Covid-19 explaning why respirators are definitly effective and why we should all wear them.
I understand the complications considering the lack of actual masks, but its not like nobody knew about this. I think goverments are just not recommending or mandating them because they dont want to cause panic and an ever bigger shortage for medical staff.
That said theres already at least one European country where respirators are mandatory for people in public, Czech Repuplic.

I went shopping for the first time in two weeks this morning and nobody was wearing one but me. I went at 8am so there were only a couple of people in the (enormous) supermarket, beside me and the staff.
But if this virus can survive in aerosols, and we know it can to an extent, the ventilation system in supermarkets might even make it worse.
Luckily people in supermarkets arent “generally” singing their lungs out in close proximity.

I spent a good 45 minutes cleaning/disinfecting the stuff I got and took a good long shower when I was done.
Shoes stay outside and clothes went in the laundry basket.
I might be overreacting or paranoid, but my motto in sketchy situations has always been “Hope for the best, prepare for the worst”, and so far its served me well.
 
Sandro

Sandro

Terrified of Cucumbers
Nov 12, 2006
3,228
2,541
The old world
SkaredShtles said:
Agreed. I haven't really looked - but is Brazil blowing up? I know that New Orleans is right now starting to feel the effects of the Mardi Gras shenanigans. :(
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I think Brazil is fairly late and the virus travelled there from Europe. Hard to say as they are one of the few countries led by an even bigger reality denying douchnozzle than the US. Looking back at the data, carnival over here might have come just early enough not to have a huge multiplying effect. Up until the middle of March, over half the positive cases in my state of 17million people could be traced back to a single small carnival party in a tiny village. We'd be seeing much higher numbers if this had happened in one of the big cities.
 
Sandro

Sandro

Terrified of Cucumbers
Nov 12, 2006
3,228
2,541
The old world
mandown said:
Hope this isn’t encouraging any nonsense or shenanigans.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

www.bloomberg.com
Viktor Orban Takes Sole Command of Hungary With Pandemic Emergency Law
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Poland's ruling party is pulling similar crap by passing changes to their election law for their presidential election in May. Look forward towards some serious EU disintegration once Italy and Spain are past the worst of the health crisis and can steer their attention to their debt crisis while northern Europe does nothing.
 
jonKranked

jonKranked

Detective Dookie
Nov 10, 2005
89,404
27,627
media blackout
dan-o

dan-o

Turbo Monkey
Jun 30, 2004
6,499
2,805
Sandro said:
Poland's ruling party is pulling similar crap by passing changes to their election law for their presidential election in May. Look forward towards some serious EU disintegration once Italy and Spain are past the worst of the health crisis and can steer their attention to their debt crisis while northern Europe does nothing.
Click to expand...
What’s your take on EU coming out of this mess?
 
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