[dan-o]

This guy is losing his mind over the inaccuracy of the models.

Murray Model Drops Doomsday Projections – No Excuse Left Not to End the Lockdown - Granite Grok

So earlier today here was the curve the Murray Model was projecting as to the need for hospital beds for Coronavirus patients: Here’s what it looks like now: I didn’t screen-shot the death projection today, but here is March 30th’s 351, which was subsequently dropped to 331, which was the...

granitegrok.com

 

[mandown]

How do we come out of this? Will there just be a day when the government says to go back to normal life? Are they going to ease back in with only lifting certain restrictions but not all?

I doubt there will suddenly just be a cure and everyone can go back to normal. What are the obligations legal liabilities for stores and employers and stadiums and theme parks when people start congregating again?

 

[Toshi]

Snapshot of IHME predictions as of April 6. Format is state, peak predicted deaths/day, date of peak:

NY 878/day Apr 9
NJ 584/day Apr 16
MA 373/day Apr 18
FL 242/day Apr 21
IL 208/day Apr 12
CT 192/day Apr 22
MI 190/day Apr 9

Many other states below this. I would argue that based off of this we should be having a discussion around April 20 of:

1) Whether states peaked at/when predicted
2) What to reopen at that point, especially in the lesser-affected states +/- interstate travel restrictions

 

[TN]

maksed up voluntarily last time I went out, today we are running out and now we have to.
I bet we LOTS more folks wearing them here in the states after this gets back to "normal".

 

[TN]

How do we come out of this? Will there just be a day when the government says to go back to normal life? Are they going to ease back in with only lifting certain restrictions but not all?

I doubt there will suddenly just be a cure and everyone can go back to normal. What are the obligations legal liabilities for stores and employers and stadiums and theme parks when people start congregating again?

It seems the smart way would be to ease into in, but it will prolly be a shit show no matter what.

 

[jimmydean]

How do we come out of this? Will there just be a day when the government says to go back to normal life? Are they going to ease back in with only lifting certain restrictions but not all?

I doubt there will suddenly just be a cure and everyone can go back to normal. What are the obligations legal liabilities for stores and employers and stadiums and theme parks when people start congregating again?

For me the quotation is more about what happens next time. It's not like chicken pox where you can only get it once. This could stew around in some suburb in Ohio and then someone hits the casino and we are right back where we started.

 

[kidwoo]

This guy is losing his mind over the inaccuracy of the models.

Murray Model Drops Doomsday Projections – No Excuse Left Not to End the Lockdown - Granite Grok

So earlier today here was the curve the Murray Model was projecting as to the need for hospital beds for Coronavirus patients: Here’s what it looks like now: I didn’t screen-shot the death projection today, but here is March 30th’s 351, which was subsequently dropped to 331, which was the...

granitegrok.com

wow, sample of one

that guy's really digging deep.

It's almost like new hampshire updated something over the weekend. Like every other state.


Some states went up.

 

[Toshi]

On the other hand, this from Cuomo's office today:

His comment:

Early projections (in orange & blue) showed we would need 55K to 110K hospital beds. The purple line shows where we are. We are tracking better than the initial models, which is good news. Social distancing appears to be working. We must keep it up.
https://twitter.com/NYGovCuomo/status/1247197819343077383/photo/1

My comment:

On one hand, this is undeniably good for patients and healthcare workers. On the other hand, not engaging in any self-reflection with regard to _why_ this is happening is unhealthy. Were the underlying assumptions of the models correct? Do they need revision?

 

[Westy]

This guy is losing his mind over the inaccuracy of the models.

Murray Model Drops Doomsday Projections – No Excuse Left Not to End the Lockdown - Granite Grok

So earlier today here was the curve the Murray Model was projecting as to the need for hospital beds for Coronavirus patients: Here’s what it looks like now: I didn’t screen-shot the death projection today, but here is March 30th’s 351, which was subsequently dropped to 331, which was the...

granitegrok.com

Probably the same guy who says the weather forecast is broken when it calls for a 50% chance of rain and it doesn't.

I like how he assumes that inaccuracies in a model, one that displays large uncertainty, is part of a conspiracy.

 

[jonKranked]

View attachment 143177

Out to see the sunset.

ghost ride the whip

 

[Montana rider]

Plenty of anecdotal reports of folks dying at home from CV19 and others not being tested:

Official Counts Understate the U.S. Coronavirus Death Toll (Published 2020)

Inconsistent protocols, limited resources and a patchwork of decision making have led to an undercounting of people with the coronavirus who have died, health experts say.

www.nytimes.com

By Sarah Kliff and Julie Bosman

WASHINGTON — A coroner in Indiana wanted to know if the coronavirus had killed a man in early March, but said that her health department denied a test. Paramedics in New York City say that many patients who died at home were never tested for the coronavirus, even if they showed telltale signs of infection.

In Virginia, a funeral director prepared the remains of three people after health workers cautioned her that they each had tested positive for the coronavirus. But only one of the three had the virus noted on the death certificate.

Across the United States, even as coronavirus deaths are being recorded in terrifying numbers — many hundreds each day — the true death toll is likely much higher.

More than 9,400 people with the coronavirus have been reported to have died in this country as of this weekend, but hospital officials, doctors, public health experts and medical examiners say that official counts have failed to capture the true number of Americans dying in this pandemic. The undercount is a result of inconsistent protocols, limited resources and a patchwork of decision making from one state or county to the next.

In many rural areas, coroners say they don’t have the tests they need to detect the disease. Doctors now believe that some deaths in February and early March, before the coronavirus reached epidemic levels in the United States, were likely misidentified as influenza or only described as pneumonia.

With no uniform system for reporting coronavirus-related deaths in the United States, and a continued shortage of tests, some states and counties have improvised, obfuscated and, at times, backtracked in counting the dead.

“We definitely think there are deaths that we have not accounted for,” said Jennifer Nuzzo, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security, which studies global health threats and is closely tracking the coronavirus pandemic.

Late last week, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued new guidance for how to certify coronavirus deaths, underscoring the need for uniformity and reinforcing the sense by health care workers and others that deaths have not been consistently tracked. In its guidance, the C.D.C. instructed officials to report deaths where the patient has tested positive or, in an absence of testing, “if the circumstances are compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty.”

In infectious outbreaks, public health experts say that under typical circumstances it takes months or years to compile data that is as accurate as possible on deaths. The reporting system during an epidemic of this scale is particularly strained. And while experts say they believe that virus-related deaths have been missed, the extent of the problem is not clear.

But as mayors and governors hold daily news conferences reporting the latest figures of infections and deaths related to Covid-19, Americans have paid close attention to the locations and numbers of the sick and dead — one of the few metrics available for understanding the new and mysterious disease threatening their communities.

Public health experts say that an accurate count of deaths is an essential tool to understand a disease outbreak as it unfolds: The more deadly a disease, the more aggressively the authorities are willing to disrupt normal life. Precise death counts can also inform the federal government on how to target resources, like ventilators from the national stockpile, to the areas of the country with the most desperate need.

Lingering questions
As the coronavirus outbreak began sweeping across the country last month, Julio Ramirez, a 43-year-old salesman in San Gabriel, Calif., came home from a business trip and began feeling unwell, suffering from a fever, cough and body aches. By the next day, he had lost his sense of taste and smell.

His wife, Julie Murillo, took him to an urgent care clinic several days later, where he was so weak he had to be pushed in a wheelchair. Doctors prescribed antibiotics, a cough syrup and gave him a chest X-ray, but they did not test for the coronavirus, she said. Just over a week after he returned from his trip, Ms. Murillo found him dead in his bed.

“I kept trying to get him tested from the beginning,” Ms. Murillo said. “They told me no.”

Frustrated, Ms. Murillo enlisted friends to call the C.D.C. on her behalf, urging a post-mortem test. Then she hired a private company to conduct an autopsy; the owner pleaded for a coronavirus test from local and federal authorities.

On Saturday afternoon, 19 days after the death, Ms. Murillo received a call from the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health, she said. The health department had gone to the funeral home where her husband’s body was resting and taken a sample for a coronavirus test. He tested positive.

In a statement, the health department said that post-mortem testing has been conducted on “a number of cases,” but did not provide specifics or comment on Mr. Ramirez’s case.

The work of counting deaths related to the virus falls to an assortment of health care providers, medical examiners, coroners, funeral homes and local health departments that fill out America’s death certificates. The documents typically include information on the immediate cause of death, such as a heart attack or pneumonia, as well as on any underlying disease. In coronavirus cases, that would be Covid-19.

The federal government does not expect to produce a final tally of coronavirus deaths until 2021, when it publishes an annual compilation of the country’s leading causes of death.

A New York Times tally of known Covid-related deaths, based on reports from state and local officials, showed 9,470 deaths as of Sunday. On Friday, the National Center for Health Statistics, part of the C.D.C., began publishing preliminary estimates of coronavirus deaths, although a spokesman said that information would have a “lag of 1-2 weeks.” Its first estimate noted 1,150 deaths, based on the number of death certificates that included Covid-19 as an underlying disease.

“It is not a ‘real time’ count of Covid deaths, like what the states are currently reporting,” Jeff Lancashire, a spokesman for the National Center for Health Statistics, said.

But those who work with death certificates say they worry that relying only on those documents may leave out a significant number of cases in which coronavirus was confirmed by testing, but not written down in the section where doctors and coroners are asked to note relevant underlying diseases. Generally, certificates require an immediate cause, and encourage — but do not require — officials to take note of an underlying disease.

Then there are the many suspected cases.

Susan Perry, the funeral director from Virginia, said that she was informed by health workers and families that three recently deceased people had tested positive for the virus so that she and her staff could take necessary precautions with the bodies. Only one death certificate mentioned the virus.

“This probably happens all the time with different diseases, but this is the first time I’m paying attention to it,” Ms. Perry said. “If we don’t know the numbers, how are we going to be able to prepare ourselves and protect ourselves?”

‘Now we’re having the “aha!” moment’
Early in the U.S. outbreak, virus-linked deaths may have been overlooked, hospital officials said. A late start to coronavirus testing hampered hospitals’ ability to detect the infection among patients with flulike symptoms in February and early March. Doctors at several hospitals reported treating pneumonia patients who eventually died before testing was available.

“When I was working before we had testing, we had a ton of patients with pneumonia,” said Geraldine Ménard, chief of general internal medicine at Tulane Medical Center in New Orleans. “I remember thinking it was weird. I’m sure some of those patients did have it. But no one knew back then.”

An emergency department physician in San Francisco recalled two deaths that were probably coronavirus but not identified as such. One patient died at home; a relative in the same home later tested positive for the disease. Another patient was an older man who came to the hospital with typical coronavirus symptoms, and who had been in contact with someone recently traveling to China, but arrived at the hospital before testing was available.

In New York City, emergency medical workers say that infection and death rates are probably far higher than reported. Given a record number of calls, many ambulance crews have encouraged anyone not critically ill to stay home. The result, medics say, is that many presumed coronavirus patients may never know for sure if they had the virus, so any who later die at home may never be categorized as having had it.

Across the country, coroners are going through a process of re-evaluation, reconsidering deaths that occurred before testing was widely available. Coroners and medical examiners generally investigate deaths that are considered unusual, or result from accidents or suicides, or occur at home.
...
(TLDR > 10,000 characters)
...
“When we go back to those deaths that occurred earlier this year, people who were negative for flu, now we’re having the ‘aha!’ moment,” she said. “They should have been tested for the coronavirus. As far as underreporting, I would say, definitely.”


“We’re still debating the death toll of the Spanish flu” of 1918-19, said Stéphane Helleringer, associate professor at the Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health. “It might take a long time. It’s not just that the data is messy, but because the effects of a pandemic disease are very complex.”

 

[Westy]

Snapshot of IHME predictions as of April 6. Format is state, peak predicted deaths/day, date of peak:

NY 878/day Apr 9
NJ 584/day Apr 16
MA 373/day Apr 18
FL 242/day Apr 21
IL 208/day Apr 12
CT 192/day Apr 22
MI 190/day Apr 9

Many other states below this. I would argue that based off of this we should be having a discussion around April 20 of:

1) Whether states peaked at/when predicted
2) What to reopen at that point, especially in the lesser-affected states +/- interstate travel restrictions

We are supposed to be at the peak death rate here in Washington. The data is so noisy I think it will take many days to see if that is true or not.

 

[Westy]

How do we come out of this? Will there just be a day when the government says to go back to normal life? Are they going to ease back in with only lifting certain restrictions but not all?

I doubt there will suddenly just be a cure and everyone can go back to normal. What are the obligations legal liabilities for stores and employers and stadiums and theme parks when people start congregating again?

I don't think this has been getting talked about enough. Let's assume the best case scenario and in a few weeks the number of new cases per day drops to near zero. The virus is still out there and if we return to normal all of a sudden it will have a few hundred million new meat bags to infect and we will return to exponential growth. There are only a few scenarios for this to end. A readily available and implemented vaccine, it burns through the population or it mutates into something we stop giving a shit about.

So what do we do? We can't hide from it forever.

 

[kidwoo]

So what do we do?

Switch grocery store CEO salaries with checkout workers

 

[TN]

I don't think this has been getting talked about enough. Let's assume the best case scenario and in a few weeks the number of new cases per day drops to near zero. The virus is still out there and if we return to normal all of a sudden it will have a few hundred million new meat bags to infect and we will return to exponential growth. There are only a few scenarios for this to end. A readily available and implemented vaccine, it burns through the population or it mutates into something we stop giving a shit about.

So what do we do? We can't hide from it forever.

we need to get the economy back up & runnning!!!!!

 

[mandown]

I don't think this has been getting talked about enough. Let's assume the best case scenario and in a few weeks the number of new cases per day drops to near zero. The virus is still out there and if we return to normal all of a sudden it will have a few hundred million new meat bags to infect and we will return to exponential growth. There are only a few scenarios for this to end. A readily available and implemented vaccine, it burns through the population or it mutates into something we stop giving a shit about.

So what do we do? We can't hide from it forever.

Yeah. As long as it’s out there, then it can come back. If this thing is getting into bats and tigers then it could be hard to eradicate. Without a vaccine we could be swamped.

So do we just ramp up vent and PPE production and create dedicated treatment centers, and go forward with life knowing the thing can transmit but we have capacity for management? Is it like a wildfire that just burns through the world and we only do what we can to maintain as many lives as possible?

 

[Westy]

Yeah. As long as it’s out there, then it can come back. If this thing is getting into bats and tigers then it could be hard to eradicate. Without a vaccine we could be swamped.

So do we just ramp up vent and PPE production and create dedicated treatment centers, and go forward with life knowing the thing can transmit but we have capacity for management? Is it like a wildfire that just burns through the world and we only do what we can to maintain as many lives as possible?

Agreed. If the assumption that the dose/exposure leads to the more extreme cases in low risk groups is correct, with PPE any infection should be incidental and low dosage. Let the low risk groups go about and require PPE and let them build herd immunity. High risk individuals should remain locked down.

 

[SkaredShtles]

Yeah. As long as it’s out there, then it can come back. If this thing is getting into bats and tigers then it could be hard to eradicate. Without a vaccine we could be swamped.

So do we just ramp up vent and PPE production and create dedicated treatment centers, and go forward with life knowing the thing can transmit but we have capacity for management? Is it like a wildfire that just burns through the world and we only do what we can to maintain as many lives as possible?

You know - these are all good questions... and since we are "One Nation, Under the @FSM" we should probably have some sort of centralized, coordinated response with regards to how we're going to get back to some semblance of normalcy.

Oh, wait.

 

[Jozz]

High risk individuals should remain locked down.

Done!

 

[jonKranked]

I don't think this has been getting talked about enough. Let's assume the best case scenario and in a few weeks the number of new cases per day drops to near zero. The virus is still out there and if we return to normal all of a sudden it will have a few hundred million new meat bags to infect and we will return to exponential growth. There are only a few scenarios for this to end. A readily available and implemented vaccine, it burns through the population or it mutates into something we stop giving a shit about.

So what do we do? We can't hide from it forever.

and all the assumptions and models also seem to be operating under the assumption that the virus doesn't mutate.

 

[dan-o]

After 3 weeks of sitting on our hands we're starting exterior work tmo.
Easy enough to keep distance from each other and vendors.

 

[Jozz]

and all the assumptions and models also seem to be operating under the assumption that the virus doesn't mutate.

that, and it will probably get less infectious as time goes and become a bit more like H1N1. The main goal of a virus is to reproduce. If it kills the host too fast it defeats its purpose. Those little buggers are teh smart.

 

[StiHacka]

 

[AngryMetalsmith]

George Carlin once said that the Earth would eventually rid itself of the plague of mankind. If we are collectively too stupid to keep our heads down then perhaps we are on the precipice of an extinction level event.

 

[Kevin]

George Carlin once said that the Earth would eventually rid itself of the plague of mankind. If we are collectively too stupid to keep our heads down then perhaps we are on the precipice of an extinction level event.

Maybe the earth really just needed plastic and now it finally has enough...

 

[stoney]

Sounds like Boris J has some problems... ICU for you!

 

[jonKranked]

Sounds like Boris J has some problems... ICU for you!

brexit'd

 

[Nick]

 

[jonKranked]

until he gets it. then they swap out a clone

 

[Toshi]

auspice

nextstrain.org

CN: supports a single Chinese origin around early December.

 

[Pesqueeb]

until he gets it. then they swap out a clone

Maybe that is a clone.

You don't know that it isn't.

DO YOU?

 

[jonKranked]

Maybe that is a clone.

You don't know that it isn't.

DO YOU?

in soviet russia, russia clones you

 

[mandown]

and all the assumptions and models also seem to be operating under the assumption that the virus doesn't mutate.

 

[dan-o]

auspice

nextstrain.org

CN: supports a single Chinese origin around early December.

Shocking.
Sat on this one too long apparently

 

[jonKranked]

"This is where we're at in buying PPE.

An Illinois official sped on a highway to get to a meet-up in a McDonald's parking lot, where she handed off a $3.4 MILLION CHECK to buy N95 masks from China with 20 minutes to spare, beating other bidders."

https://twitter.com/NaderDIssa/status/1246232950007627776

Illinois adjusts on the fly to meet medical supply needs in a coronavirus ‘Wild West’

To meet the deadline of a supplier and get 1.5 million potentially life-saving N95 masks, Illinois’ assistant comptroller raced north on I-55 with a $3.4 million check.

chicago.suntimes.com

 

[Toshi]

Shocking

It sure if bots or true skeptics on a Twitter, but lots of people are all “well, I got what I thought was a cold in November, so what if we are all immune already?!”

 

[Jm_]

Sounds like Boris J has some problems... ICU for you!

Fuckin Pelosi...

 

[Westy]

Maybe that is a clone.

You don't know that it isn't.

DO YOU?

It is Dolores

 

[Westy]

that, and it will probably get less infectious as time goes and become a bit more like H1N1. The main goal of a virus is to reproduce. If it kills the host too fast it defeats its purpose. Those little buggers are teh smart.

If we could just breed a version that just sterilized dumb people.

 

[rideit]

Wearing a red hat would make you immediately susceptible?