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Depressing thought...

dump

Turbo Monkey
Oct 12, 2001
5,737
543
Easy there tiger. What norbar said is how I read your blurb and made me wonder hmmm. Seems clear now.
 

jonKranked

Press Button, Receive Stupid
Nov 10, 2005
61,064
7,990
media blackout
@norbar - 100’s of stores are blanket-cancelling ALL future orders to avoid unplayable AP.

my view is they need a couple vector products to pull people in this summer.

Do I think this will be the leading edge of stores business? No.

does there need to be a couple sexy demo bikes? Yes.

you are conflating two different things and looking for discontinuity where there isn’t.

no offense, but you don’t know anything about me. I am not speaking locally. I have served as global head of sales and marketing for premium action sports brands since 2005 and regionally since the 90’s
unrelated, have you seen the danny devito fanny pack?

1585151059440.png
 

jonKranked

Press Button, Receive Stupid
Nov 10, 2005
61,064
7,990
media blackout
The Industry™ is already re-factoring itself to market budget friendly bikes and associated merch. Look at Pinkbike, they have almost patented putting "costs MOAR than $8k" as a pro reason to buy a bike in their "reviews", and now they are running a series on budget models.
the whole budget review thing was, at least in part, response to that criticism. the timing of those reviews dropping now is just coincidental.
 

marshalolson

Turbo Monkey
May 25, 2006
1,525
230
the whole budget review thing was, at least in part, response to that criticism. the timing of those reviews dropping now is just coincidental.
The reality is a recession was coming irregardless of THE PANDEMICS anyhow.

That is because consumer income was not keeping pace with inflation... and the disposable portion of consumer income has had a negative slope (anecdotally, health care has doubled, cell phones has quadrupled, home prices doubled, etc) for a while. More overtly political than I prefer, but see Robert Reich's "Saving Capatalism" for more (on Netflix).

Which raises a great point. Inflation Calculator.
That $6000 1992 Specialized S-Works Ultimate is $11k in today dollars.
That $6700 2008 IH Sunday World Cup is $8k in today dollars.

So @norbar I agree very strongly with two points you make...
(1) the achievability of an $8,000 bike today is lower than that of an equivalently nice bike a decade or two ago.
(2) the awareness around, and desirability of, an $8,000 bike today is MUCH higher because of the global reach of marketing campaigns highlighting halo products every minute of every day these days.

The discontinuity between (1) and (2) is obvious
 
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Wuffles

Monkey
Feb 24, 2016
126
69
It sounds like a good time for a shorter supply chain and leaner manufacturing :)

Was gonna say... you guys are probably going to feel a pinch, but no where near as bad as people who rely on Asian supply chains and order in batches of 4-5 figures.

Whats the lead time on a size 3 smash frame these days? My aluminum one might need to become wall art...
 

Electric_City

The orangutans are loose!
Apr 14, 2007
1,586
423
The reality is a recession was coming irregardless of THE PANDEMICS anyhow.

That is because consumer income was not keeping pace with inflation... and the disposable portion of consumer income has had a negative slope (anecdotally, health care has doubled, cell phones has quadrupled, home prices doubled, etc) for a while. More overtly political than I prefer, but see Robert Reich's "Saving Capatalism" for more (on Netflix).

Which raises a great point. Inflation Calculator.
That $6000 1992 Specialized S-Works Ultimate is $11k in today dollars.
That $6700 2008 IH Sunday World Cup is $8k in today dollars.

So @norbar I agree very strongly with two points you make...
(1) the achievability of an $8,000 bike today is lower than that of an equivalently nice bike a decade or two ago.
(2) the awareness around, and desirability of, an $8,000 bike today is MUCH higher because of the global reach of marketing campaigns highlighting halo products every minute of every day these days.

The discontinuity between (1) and (2) is obvious
:rolleyes:

I wasn't sure what to invest in, so I found a website called Ridemonkey.com and went to the downhill forums where a guy told me (after the fact) that a recession was imminent.

WOW! I learned about shim stacks, $800 brakes that are "almost perfect" and that a recession happened that The Press™ has been "predicting" for 4 years now!

UN-FUCKING-BELIEVABLE!

Anyone wanna tell me if E-bikes are worth investing in?
 

jonKranked

Press Button, Receive Stupid
Nov 10, 2005
61,064
7,990
media blackout
:rolleyes:

I wasn't sure what to invest in, so I found a website called Ridemonkey.com and went to the downhill forums where a guy told me (after the fact) that a recession was imminent.

WOW! I learned about shim stacks, $800 brakes that are "almost perfect" and that a recession happened that The Press™ has been "predicting" for 4 years now!

UN-FUCKING-BELIEVABLE!

Anyone wanna tell me if E-bikes are worth investing in?
you seem angry. have you considered fucking off?
 

marshalolson

Turbo Monkey
May 25, 2006
1,525
230
:rolleyes:

I wasn't sure what to invest in, so I found a website called Ridemonkey.com and went to the downhill forums where a guy told me (after the fact) that a recession was imminent.

WOW! I learned about shim stacks, $800 brakes that are "almost perfect" and that a recession happened that The Press™ has been "predicting" for 4 years now!

UN-FUCKING-BELIEVABLE!

Anyone wanna tell me if E-bikes are worth investing in?
you came for the shimstacks and stayed for the armchair quarterbacking?
;):-)
 

maxyedor

<b>TOOL PRO</b>
Oct 20, 2005
3,578
784
In the bathroom, fighting a battle
Probably late to the party here, but wasn't some sort of major correction in the bike industry on the horizon anyway, with or without a recession? MTB is trendy as shit with 30-40 year old dudes, basically every single one of my friend has bought a bike in the last 18 months, that trend wasn't going to last forever. Likewise the 50+ crowd that traditionally would have gotten into golf has been buying ebikes, they'll be buying titanium croquet mallets next when the AARP starts writing articles about that.

It will be hard to separate the damage done by the recession from the damage done by the waning popularity of the sport in 18 months, and how the two are related, but I see a lot of mid sized manufacturers getting hammered by the recession as a result of how they've pursued the trends.

Santa Cruz may be well and truly fucked because they sold out to Pon too early, as a result they're one of the biggest beneficiaries of the "enduro" trend, and they chased the ebike market too late with a weak attempt, they're out all the development cost but will likely never see the sales that companies like Spec. and YT are enjoying at the moment. Pon will keep them afloat just fine, but I'd be shocked if they're much more than a name badge in a couple years. Once you're on the corporate dole, they're the boss, Roskopp is disposable, the Syndicate is just an expense, and they have massive e bike development bills to pay. I'd put Intense in the same boat, but perhaps in a worse spot due to their history of financial trouble, and even worse attempt at ebikes. Ibis, Yeti, Rocky, and the like would be on my list of seriously threatened companies in all of this, again, they all benefited greatly from the sales boom but I don't see much forethought in how they've expanded, and if they're not already sucking the corporate teet (Pon, Dorrel, etc) I imagine they will be soon.

Hard to predict that will happen with the small component and accessory manufacturers (OneUp, PNW, Chromag, etc), but if they're able to retract their footprint and aren't saddled with much debt, they'll do okay. People will be less likely to drop $6-12k on the new bike as long as the economy remains unpredictable, but they'll still buy upgrade parts because people get bored, and that stuff is a cheap way to entertain yourself.
 

mtg

Green with Envy
Sep 21, 2009
1,648
1,191
Denver, CO
Was gonna say... you guys are probably going to feel a pinch, but no where near as bad as people who rely on Asian supply chains and order in batches of 4-5 figures.

Whats the lead time on a size 3 smash frame these days? My aluminum one might need to become wall art...
Pretty short, 2-4 weeks, and we're always working to improve it.
 

HardtailHack

used an iron once
Jan 20, 2009
2,464
355
Dont worry, this little break is the perfect time for you to save up and upgrade your crappy hopes!
If the break is long enough he may be able to strip them down and work out why they are so crappy, maybe Dremel 1/2lb off 'em too.
I think my first set cost three times as much as my current MT5s, but the MT5s work and weigh half as much.
 

Udi

RM Chief Ornithologist: “I Brake for Birds”
Mar 14, 2005
4,842
1,037
If the break is long enough he may be able to strip them down and work out why they are so crappy, maybe Dremel 1/2lb off 'em too.
I think my first set cost three times as much as my current MT5s, but the MT5s work and weigh half as much.
I was just stirring up EC, the T3 V4s are decent enough, you mean the older version?
Current one isn't that heavy at all, it's the stainless hoses that drive them up. Not sure if mandatory.

Then again I've been looking for a cheap set for my trailbike so of course I'd do this self-sell. Learnt it on RM.
 

norbar

Turbo Monkey
Jun 7, 2007
9,892
493
Warsaw :/
@norbar - 100’s of stores are blanket-cancelling ALL future orders to avoid unplayable AP.

my view is they need a couple vector products to pull people in this summer.

Do I think this will be the leading edge of stores business? No.

does there need to be a couple sexy demo bikes? Yes.

you are conflating two different things and looking for discontinuity where there isn’t.

no offense, but you don’t know anything about me. I am not speaking locally. I have served as global head of sales and marketing for premium action sports brands since 2005 and regionally since the 90’s
Are there any studies suggesting a few super high end bikes will draw in customers looking for normal bikes?

Also I don't get why you are somehow suggesting that I am speaking about you. Also please don't hide behind experience. I'm a market analyst who has worked in providing customer insights on a high level for quite some time and not only that since I have to make accurate consumer behavior forecasts I test my skills almost every week. We can compare our LinkedIn penis size or we can just discuss. It's mostly a talk about the details we might not agree on. We can talk and see where we differ and talk about those differences or you can be angry I disagreed with you on something and this will not be very productive.
 
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norbar

Turbo Monkey
Jun 7, 2007
9,892
493
Warsaw :/
The reality is a recession was coming irregardless of THE PANDEMICS anyhow.

That is because consumer income was not keeping pace with inflation... and the disposable portion of consumer income has had a negative slope (anecdotally, health care has doubled, cell phones has quadrupled, home prices doubled, etc) for a while. More overtly political than I prefer, but see Robert Reich's "Saving Capatalism" for more (on Netflix).
I'm a fan of Reich too. Though the problem with predicting recessions it's hard to predict an exact timing of it. We would have to look at proven forecasters to see when they forecasted it to happen. Real recessions seem to hapen now only after the bankers start covering their backs. Didn't seem like they started doing that. Also the trade war between Russia and Saudis could have postponed the recession thanks to lower oil prices
 
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norbar

Turbo Monkey
Jun 7, 2007
9,892
493
Warsaw :/
I was just stirring up EC, the T3 V4s are decent enough, you mean the older version?
Current one isn't that heavy at all, it's the stainless hoses that drive them up. Not sure if mandatory.

Then again I've been looking for a cheap set for my trailbike so of course I'd do this self-sell. Learnt it on RM.
V4's on a trailbike? Isn't it a bit overkill?
 

norbar

Turbo Monkey
Jun 7, 2007
9,892
493
Warsaw :/
Ibis, Yeti, Rocky, and the like would be on my list of seriously threatened companies in all of this, again, they all benefited greatly from the sales boom but I don't see much forethought in how they've expanded, and if they're not already sucking the corporate teet (Pon, Dorrel, etc) I imagine they will be soon.
I wonder if companies with a stronger presence in the southern hemisphere and countries without strong seasonal sales will fare better since the timing of the whole covid thing could not have been worse given it's new bike time for most companies.

Also yeah some small, high volume companies will be screwed. I don't think it's only endurpoo. DJ bike small companies were often selling to kids so realistically they were selling to parents. A new bike for the kid will not be high on the list of necessities soon.

Also wasn't intense screwed anyway? They pay for Gwin, they hired Crank Bros guys. Even without covid high expenses + cb people seems like a recipe for disaster.
 

marshalolson

Turbo Monkey
May 25, 2006
1,525
230
Also I don't get why you are somehow suggesting that I am speaking about you. Also please don't hide behind experience. I'm a market analyst who has worked in providing customer insights on a high level for quite some time and not only that since I have to make accurate consumer behavior forecasts I test my skills almost every week. We can compare our LinkedIn penis size or we can just discuss. It's mostly a talk about the details we might not agree on. We can talk and see where we differ and talk about those differences or you can be angry I disagreed with you on something and this will not be very productive.
dude, all good here. Sitting with my kids homeschooling, and channeling work creative energy onto ridemonkey... so dangerous to post.

But anyway, here is a quick recap as I see it.
  1. You said top-level product is much more expensive now
  2. Gary and I both listed pricing showing that top level product in the 90’s and 00’s is in line with what it is now. Yet to be refuted.
  3. You said you didn't recall seeing this top level product on your friends Bikes 12 years ago at 3 mountains, implied that this view was the global trend, despite places like ridemonkey being absolutely jammed back in 2008-2012 with super pimped out light weight DH bikes, and accused me of being limited in my view
  4. I shared my background and what shaped my perspective (since you asked it if was locally-based only), and replied showing more Products, pricing, inflation, etc that top level product historically still costs about the same as it costs now. Yet to be refuted.
so happy to talk about data. Please share something more than anecdotal opinion.
 
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marshalolson

Turbo Monkey
May 25, 2006
1,525
230
Are there any studies suggesting a few super high end bikes will draw in customers looking for normal bikes?
My view is now is the time for stores and brands alike to over-index on pull marketing tactics and essentially turn off push marketing tactics for the coming quarter or two.

Example of Pull marketing in this case would look like:
  • Stores emails a series of "tips/tricks/how-to" video series to their customer base. Intent is to add value to the customer, keep the store front of mind, make sure people are still riding (and wearing out parts/nutrition/etc), and trigger a few customers to call the shop with questions/needs
  • The store uses whatever the new demo bike they have that their customer clientele is already interested in.
  • At the end of the video they mention they can drop off / pick up demo bikes within 20km of the shop for demos. But this isn't the purpose of the video, its a quick 5 second mention. "working on the new pivot switchblade today. If anyone is interested in giving this thing a spin, give us a call, and we can drop off a demo bike at your house for free". Assuming they are not in a place that is in lockdown of coure.
Hope that clarifies.
 
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ZHendo

Turbo Monkey
Oct 29, 2006
1,627
107
PNW
Welp, trails are slowly shutting down here around the Seattle area. Evergreen (our advocacy org) announced that state and DNR lands are now closed, and their board chairman basically begged people to only ride if you can actually ride to the trails. With trails as overcrowded as they have been, I think it's the right call, but it sucks, esp. as I was looking forward to riding after being stuck road riding for 2 weeks due to a hand injury.

I'm curious what the effect of coronavirus will have on new bike sales. People have tons of time to shop online (I know I've been an Instagram fiend and thinking about bike upgrades) so maybe sales of upgrades and stuff will be up, but it seems like people may also be tightening their wallets for bigger ticket purchases? Hard to know yet.
 

Vrock

Linkage Design Blog
Aug 13, 2005
271
45
Spain
Probably late to the party here, but wasn't some sort of major correction in the bike industry on the horizon anyway, with or without a recession? MTB is trendy as shit with 30-40 year old dudes, basically every single one of my friend has bought a bike in the last 18 months, that trend wasn't going to last forever. Likewise the 50+ crowd that traditionally would have gotten into golf has been buying ebikes, they'll be buying titanium croquet mallets next when the AARP starts writing articles about that.

It will be hard to separate the damage done by the recession from the damage done by the waning popularity of the sport in 18 months, and how the two are related, but I see a lot of mid sized manufacturers getting hammered by the recession as a result of how they've pursued the trends.

Santa Cruz may be well and truly fucked because they sold out to Pon too early, as a result they're one of the biggest beneficiaries of the "enduro" trend, and they chased the ebike market too late with a weak attempt, they're out all the development cost but will likely never see the sales that companies like Spec. and YT are enjoying at the moment. Pon will keep them afloat just fine, but I'd be shocked if they're much more than a name badge in a couple years. Once you're on the corporate dole, they're the boss, Roskopp is disposable, the Syndicate is just an expense, and they have massive e bike development bills to pay. I'd put Intense in the same boat, but perhaps in a worse spot due to their history of financial trouble, and even worse attempt at ebikes. Ibis, Yeti, Rocky, and the like would be on my list of seriously threatened companies in all of this, again, they all benefited greatly from the sales boom but I don't see much forethought in how they've expanded, and if they're not already sucking the corporate teet (Pon, Dorrel, etc) I imagine they will be soon.

Hard to predict that will happen with the small component and accessory manufacturers (OneUp, PNW, Chromag, etc), but if they're able to retract their footprint and aren't saddled with much debt, they'll do okay. People will be less likely to drop $6-12k on the new bike as long as the economy remains unpredictable, but they'll still buy upgrade parts because people get bored, and that stuff is a cheap way to entertain yourself.
Santa Cruz is using a Shimano motor with a Shimano battery, display and lever.... That's the laziest and cheapest approach a company can take. The system, the design language and all the small details are also the same as all their other bikes. That bike has a tiny development bill to pay compared to other companies.
 

SylentK

Turbo Monkey
Feb 25, 2004
1,261
219
coloRADo
Did you guys hear the mayor of Denver tried to shut down liquor and weed shops?

It lasted about half a day and then he revoked it. LMAO!


In case you want to know what my county is saying we should do during these "Stay at home Orders" (note the ones in bold):

During a stay-at-home order you are able to:
  • Go to the pharmacy to get medication.
  • Get groceries for you and anyone that lives in your home.
  • Have a take-out meal from your favorite local restaurant.
  • Get food or supplies for your pet.
  • Take your dog around the block or go for a hike -- as long as you are keeping your distance from others.
  • Enjoy City and County open spaces [sylentk edit: This means go ride your bike on trails]
  • Take groceries and supplies to your at-risk parents, grandparents, or neighbors
  • Get margaritas-to-go from your favorite watering hole! (please enjoy responsibly from home)
Good times!
 
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Udi

RM Chief Ornithologist: “I Brake for Birds”
Mar 14, 2005
4,842
1,037
I'm wondering if there is a meaningful portion of the existing customer base that are well heeled "dentists" who will likely not face layoffs or perhaps even life altering changes in income? perhaps there's enough wealthy people who can minimize bike industry casualties
My first thought was "wow, more people here care about this stuff than I thought, certainly more than I do".
I figured the average monkey here runs their bikes into the ground for a good few years, rebuilds old junk to keep it going, and often buys parts to replace aging / worn stuff rather than a whole new bike. When it comes to embracing change or adopting new standards the majority here is quite resilient, often for cost or waste reasons.

I agree with the 'lope, the people pouring money into enduro gear will get back to it pretty soon, and that's if they don't start spending at an accelerated rate while sitting at home waiting for it to blow over. If some stuff dies out it'll have an opportunity to spring back soon enough. I think it'd be great if this culled some of the pointless yearly-update / pointless-standard nonsense, but I don't think it'll even achieve that except for maybe just this year.

I'm sure it'll suck for some businesses, but money can be made back. I'd say this sucks more for people losing their parents / grandparents / loved ones. Not hating on the big spenders either, keeps the second hand market juicy for the rest of us.
 

toodles

Turbo Monkey
Aug 24, 2004
2,931
1,266
Australia
V4's on a trailbike? Isn't it a bit overkill?
Nah. The E4s are kinda shit really. 10g weight saving over the V4s for what? They're noticeably shittier power, and a different pad size. I've got both and I want V4s on both my Enduro/play bike and my 29er trail/XC bike. The E4s are frustrating.
 

HardtailHack

used an iron once
Jan 20, 2009
2,464
355
I was just stirring up EC, the T3 V4s are decent enough, you mean the older version?
Current one isn't that heavy at all, it's the stainless hoses that drive them up. Not sure if mandatory.

Then again I've been looking for a cheap set for my trailbike so of course I'd do this self-sell. Learnt it on RM.
Yeah Moto then V2, then snapped two axles on the Pro 2 and gave up on Hope, plus Middleburn, Goldtec, Burgtec, basically anything form the UK recommended by Dirt, but I've whinged enough about this over the years, hahaha!

I think I paid $110AU an end for the MT5s and I thought they'd be almost as shit as my previous Magura brakes, they were probably the biggest surprise I've had in the past ten years, faultless for my usage, don't like the sintered pads much though.