I take a somewhat middling view.
I agree that, if taken today, the Senate would not convict Trump.
@jonKranked and I discussed at some length this morning some talk about how a "anonymous vote" might lead to a conviction but that an on the record vote most likely will not. Not withstanding how incredibly chickenshit this shows the GOP to be, it is, at least in my view, a symptom of just how cancerous the modern GOP is. "We'd vote him out but we're afraid". Party before country, feckless, goldbricking, pussies. Scared of doing what they privately say they think is
actually right, to appease the mouth breather base that vote for them, who got called from beneath the rocks by some sort of Russian backed, bigoted pied piper, at the end of 2015 because they don't want to lose being a "career civil servant sucking the government teat".
Where I disagree, is that when a vote is held, I do not believe that it inevitably leads to reelection. Trumps record of election "winning" since his own election is abysmal. A solid majority of mid term, off season, and/or special elections have gone against the GOP. It's been a bloodbath. The trend does not bode well for trump. Anything is possible of course, especially if fuckery is afoot again, but I want the Republicans,
especially senate republicans, to have to run campaigns with the albatross of public records of voting against impeaching Donald Trump. The ads write themselves. That is going to be a pretty heavy anchor for them to drag across any electoral finish line.