Seriously? Someone needs to reign this in. Can I get a $.125 uptick rule to stall out the algo trading please? K, thanks, bye.
you're welcome
The neural net is almost complete. We won't even realize we have been destroyed.
dammit, I bet it is all his doing, he just wants to be right. 
so we still buying in around 7200? or is that now a dollar cost averaging number to start at, buying at 7200, 6700, 6200, etc?
so we still buying in around 7200? or is that now a dollar cost averaging number to start at, buying at 7200, 6700, 6200, etc?
do you do animated .gifs, or just photoshop??
That's my target DCA price. I've ramped my 401k substantially, but it's going to mmkt currently. Once we hit the 7200 and down mark, I will begin putting new funds to equity. I will not rebalance until we are below 6200.dammit, I bet it is all his doing, he just wants to be right.
so we still buying in around 7200? or is that now a dollar cost averaging number to start at, buying at 7200, 6700, 6200, etc?
But then again, I've ben called "the most bearish motherf*er I've ever met" by a hedge fund flunkie, so take my calls with a grain of salt. But so far I haven't been that off... Unlike his fund...
Oct 10th bottom? What Oct 10th bottom... (oh look, there it was!!)
edit - never mind, market found it's legs at that point.
edit - never mind, market found it's legs at that point.
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DOW 8000 - buh by
DOW 7000 - here we come!
DOW 7000 - here we come!
Bump. Joker, any changes to the situation or are you seeing this level as a positive buy? Based on certain earnings projections, stocks might not be cheap, even now...That's my target DCA price. I've ramped my 401k substantially, but it's going to mmkt currently. Once we hit the 7200 and down mark, I will begin putting new funds to equity. I will not rebalance until we are below 6200.
But then again, I've ben called "the most bearish motherf*er I've ever met" by a hedge fund flunkie, so take my calls with a grain of salt. But so far I haven't been that off... Unlike his fund...
Jeez, dow's down 300+ points, and the S&P 400 Midcap index is down over 6%. Looks like we (might?) be getting to a healthy capitulation?
I'm still out of the market. I've been setting aside my 401k max into cash for quite a while now to the point that my cash balance is nearing my securities value (yes, what I had in went down that far).
I'm putting another $2000 into my IRA tomorrow and will likely be picking up some GE. I intend to hold these shares for a long time. If brk/b crosses $2200 I will pick up some as well. I am not intending to catch a bottom, as I am predicting a bottom around 6000 on the Dow. That being said, until debt levels come back down to levels on par with the early-90's, among many other things,we are still screwed.
I agree with Buffet, 2009 is a waste, start building positions for the next five years.
I'm putting another $2000 into my IRA tomorrow and will likely be picking up some GE. I intend to hold these shares for a long time. If brk/b crosses $2200 I will pick up some as well. I am not intending to catch a bottom, as I am predicting a bottom around 6000 on the Dow. That being said, until debt levels come back down to levels on par with the early-90's, among many other things,we are still screwed.
I agree with Buffet, 2009 is a waste, start building positions for the next five years.
Not really... There are great technical buys due to overselling and price exhaustion, but these are trades. There are very few investments that are cheap given the market still has a good 1000 more
Points to fall...
IMHO.
It will bottom below 6.00. Immelts latest letter is a bunch of hot air talking about how great the company was. Reality is GE got too much into the finance side of the world and all the cash from the successful parts of the business are going to keep the finance side solvent. This will hurt any potential growth in the successful divisions.
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You're a brave man picking up anything with a division called 'financial'. It's sitting on a reasonable pile of cash, but do you think they will maintain that 17% dividend? It's costing them $3b / year, and could be a casualty at some point...
I agree. I think this will go down further, but I want to start accumulating towards the bottom. I'm looking for min. 2 year hold here. If I can get a 50% over four years, I'll take it and at 6 vs 7, that's a target of 9 vs 10.5 relatively small, as it's a singl day's worth of volatility.
It will continue to fall, but I want to start accumulating, preferably on the way down rather than up.
options options options!
1. Options are for trading and hedging, not investing.
2. Options and leverage are part of the reason we are in the mess we currently are... Let's use money that doesn't belong to us to make a crazy bet on the direction of the market...
3. Options are relatively expensive on the names I am looking at.
4. Have you seen the volatility numbers lately? Unless you are at a trading platform all day, options in this market is a gamble for all but the professional traders.
1. Yes, how are they not investments?
2. Could you explain?
3. Well the majority of the time this isn't true.
4. Volatility is great, especially when you can sell it. Yes, it can be like playing golf in a hurricane, but trading rules still hold.
I believe you are an experienced trader/analyst so I take what you say with more than a grain of salt. However, now has been a fantastic time for option trading IMO. Things are a bit calmer than they were in sept-nov and so the advanced options the verticals, condors and butterflies seem to pay off.
2. Could you explain?
3. Well the majority of the time this isn't true.
4. Volatility is great, especially when you can sell it. Yes, it can be like playing golf in a hurricane, but trading rules still hold.
I believe you are an experienced trader/analyst so I take what you say with more than a grain of salt. However, now has been a fantastic time for option trading IMO. Things are a bit calmer than they were in sept-nov and so the advanced options the verticals, condors and butterflies seem to pay off.
yes lots of asterisks.
A lot of what I'm detailing here does not include any options strategies specifically because outside of you, stinkle, dante, and myself, laying out solid option strategies could lead the other readers of this thread down a path they should not go.
For someone not very well educated on advanced investments, options are just trades. Pop in, pop out for a profit. This is why I state they are trades. Setting up a risk neutral* or protected directional option strategy is indeed an investment, but a relatively advanced investment for the VAST majority of RM members.
1 option = 100 shares, you know this. However, you can buy/sell options on margin say 50% of underlying assets. Quite a few hedge funds were selling calls for immediate capital (100x leverage) which they would then take and buy long options, which they would use as collateral at 50/1 --> 100*50= 5000x or, 500% leverage. I know of quite a few funds that blew up in the last year that, when you tracked it out, were leveraged >500%. It was LTCM all over again, but with liquid assets.
Generally options are cheap, yes. Which in turns add to the above leverage commentary. Right now, options are not cheap, due to the volatility.
The volatility is great, but it is making options expensive. And I agree with Stinkle, you have to know what you are doing. But again, you need to be on a trading platform during open hours to take advantage of it. While I am on one of (if not the best) data sources most of the day, I still have to see clients during open hours. I'm not going to have open option trades playing volatility without the ability to get in/out.
I do agree that now is a great time to trade options, if you know what you are doing!!
Again for the non-options traders: IF YOU KNOW WHAT YOU ARE DOING! The 100-1 leverage of options contracts allows you to see large % moves based on small actual changes, but it goes both ways.
With LEAPS, my old man made a killing. Back in Aug 07 he went long-term short and sold leaps (calls) around 1500 for an 800 strike on the SPX. His per contract cost was under a buck iirc and he's in for about $20k. He's WAY in the money now. I think his contracts expire soon... I should see how that ended up playing out. He's got to be up at least $50k by now.
Im with you. While Im certainly no hedge fund (still trading <5 contract lots) I can see how the mass leveraging would lead to disaster. I have gone to school along with my dad for what I am doing. I will not disagree with you the options do carry more risk. But they can be tailored to high probability trades.
What platform are you using for your data? Ive been trying to soak up as much information as I can over the last 3 months. Peoples trading habits, the studies they use, styles, searches etc. no cramer! Although he is fun to watch.
What platform are you using for your data? Ive been trying to soak up as much information as I can over the last 3 months. Peoples trading habits, the studies they use, styles, searches etc. no cramer! Although he is fun to watch.
Cramer is a scheister. It's almost worth using him as a contrarian indicator.
Is anyone watching GE? Holy hell! $5.90 and falling.
He may not be right all the time (most of the time? some of the time?), but he's one of the few people on those shows who I feel actually believes what he's saying. Everyone else is basically a shill for the market or their own preconceived notions (bull or bear). Someone like Kudlow who has been relentlessly saying that it's time to buy anything and everything is far more dangerous.
GE's crazy right now. Hope your check was "delayed" again...
Not delayed, but apparently I've forgotten the password to my Scottrade account?! I just switched from ETrade, because they are horrible!He may not be right all the time (most of the time? some of the time?), but he's one of the few people on those shows who I feel actually believes what he's saying. Everyone else is basically a shill for the market or their own preconceived notions (bull or bear). Someone like Kudlow who has been relentlessly saying that it's time to buy anything and everything is far more dangerous.
GE's crazy right now. Hope your check was "delayed" again...
But damn, that was a 10% swing from when I tired to buy until now... That's fast money. GE as a traders stock...wow.
As a note, my "Mom Indicator" just went off yesterday signaling a STRONG BUY. She has an uncanny ability to time the market, but in reverse, so selling at lows and buying at highs. This happened in 1999, 2002, 2007, etc. She called me up yesterday (after riding out the market for quite some time) in a panic that the market kept going down down down, that someone on the TV said that the market was going down to 3000-5000 and to sell everything, and just get out now with whatever you have left.
Definitely seemed like a good barometer of healthy capitulation, and might mean that a bottom is somewhere in sight? Stocks aren't necessarily cheap right now by any means, but if the average investor is throwing in the towel and just selling for whatever price they can get, an exhausted bottom might not be too far away.
Definitely seemed like a good barometer of healthy capitulation, and might mean that a bottom is somewhere in sight? Stocks aren't necessarily cheap right now by any means, but if the average investor is throwing in the towel and just selling for whatever price they can get, an exhausted bottom might not be too far away.
Maybe. If you figure a "panic" starts because GE is falling so quickly and getting massive publicity...
Because everyone knows GE is a stalwart, if GE "fails", then the world is ending, it's time for all the dumbasses to sell...
Which means it's time to buy.
Have you ever test driven thinkorswim's platform?
I have not used thinkorswim though, because I have no need. I just need an execution platform, my research tools are best of the best (as noted in my PM). I went scottrade because they are cheap for trades and options, have relatively good execution, and do not charge any random mgmt fees.
Etrade wanted to charge $55/yr to hold my IRA and wanted $30 round trip for eq. execution. For options it was $15/trade + $2.50 per contract; upon execution it was teh same cost plus $.08/share to execute. If you were under 20 contracts you would lose any decent gains to fees.