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food shortage, or panic buying?

$tinkle

Expert on blowing
Feb 12, 2003
14,591
6
anybody watching the news on this? wal-mart will only allow up to 4 bags or so (depending on your purchase history) in nearly all their stores nationwide.

the only reason i'd stock up is to save a buck or two when the speculators spike the price.

any threat by terrorists to our food supply cannot be taken seriously on its face, but could cause widespread panic.

so what's the story behind the story?
 

jimmydean

The Official Meat of Ridemonkey
Sep 10, 2001
40,941
13,134
Portland, OR
When I was getting dinner tonight (awesome Chinese a block away), Danny said the price of rice has gone up 40% in less than a year. All the Asians are freaking out and buying a year or more worth in case it continues to climb.
 

SPINTECK

Turbo Monkey
Oct 16, 2005
1,370
0
abc
This is all engineered by old money and politics to make you work harder for less. Just like in the Grapes of Wrath (you worked on a plantation when times were tough, but the company store controlled the prices of your necessities so you really never got ahead. You got a raise, prices in the store went up more. But don't worry, the company store gave you credit just like our modern day fancy cards..

I would love someone to counterpoint this with a business model justifying why rice is high and in short supply. Because I try to play devil's advocate in my head, but I can' t come up w/something for this rice/flower sh1t. Every pizza place is complaining and raising prices due to flower!! Now that rocks my world.
 

jimmydean

The Official Meat of Ridemonkey
Sep 10, 2001
40,941
13,134
Portland, OR
I would love someone to counterpoint this with a business model justifying why rice is high and in short supply. Because I try to play devil's advocate in my head, but I can' t come up w/something for this rice/flower sh1t. Every pizza place is complaining and raising prices due to flower!! Now that rocks my world.
There was an article in the Oregonian a few weeks back about the crap wheat crop this year. Big drought last year and high fuel prices this year have combined to increase the cost of wheat.

New York Times, In Price and Supply, Wheat Is the Unstable Staple
 

Stiff

Monkey
Sep 24, 2001
346
0
Miss Washington DC
There was an article in the Oregonian a few weeks back about the crap wheat crop this year. Big drought last year and high fuel prices this year have combined to increase the cost of wheat.

New York Times, In Price and Supply, Wheat Is the Unstable Staple
...And also increasing demand for food, especially meat, in China as that country grows. At aggregate, more meat production generally (but not always) means reduced land available for growing vegetables and grain. In many production landscapes around the world, we're now arguably at the limit of available arable land. Efficiencies can and are being improved on existing land (Africa lags far behind other regions); efficiencies can be improved on land use (ie sprawl in the US); or you can cut into forests to put more land under food or fuel production, as is being done in the Amazon for soybean (#1) and cattle ranches (#2). Also some land used for food production is now being diverted to biofuel production (corn in the US, sugarcane in Brazil (which has 10x more energy than corn so how can we compete?)). Plus increasingly variable weather (Australia's 10-year drought) and simple bad luck.

All of this has combined to create the perfect storm. If you think rising food prices are bad in the US, visit many developing nations where it has become a real crisis, much worse than last year or in the past 20 years.

Now back to China. One fact to illustrate the scale of economic growth -- and therefore increased demand -- we're talking about: each year China emits as much additional carbon as Germany's entire annual carbon emission profile.
 

X3pilot

Texans fan - LOL
Aug 13, 2007
5,860
1
SoMD
Again, this has become a vicious circle. Reduced corn supplies for feed due to the magic of ethanol that would drive down oil prices drives up meat prices which in turn focuses attention on other food sources and then the speculators start hedging money in there and start "creating" the false panics that drive up prices. If you go and try to hoard bags of rice, you'll only drive the supply side down more, playing into the speculators hands so they can raise prices. Jebbus, we just went through this with gas.

No one can rally point to any real shortage of rice or other food source, but the speculators have used current economy jitters to create the perfect chicken little scenario.
 

valve bouncer

Master Dildoist
Feb 11, 2002
7,843
114
Japan
Apparently you can't buy butter in Japan at the moment, which some will you have believe is a sign of the apocalypse. You however can buy milk, hopefully they'll make the connection before too much longer.
 

X3pilot

Texans fan - LOL
Aug 13, 2007
5,860
1
SoMD
...And also increasing demand for food, especially meat, in China as that country grows. At aggregate, more meat production generally (but not always) means reduced land available for growing vegetables and grain. In many production landscapes around the world, we're now arguably at the limit of available arable land. Efficiencies can and are being improved on existing land (Africa lags far behind other regions); efficiencies can be improved on land use (ie sprawl in the US); or you can cut into forests to put more land under food or fuel production, as is being done in the Amazon for soybean (#1) and cattle ranches (#2). Also some land used for food production is now being diverted to biofuel production (corn in the US, sugarcane in Brazil (which has 10x more energy than corn so how can we compete?)). Plus increasingly variable weather (Australia's 10-year drought) and simple bad luck.

All of this has combined to create the perfect storm. If you think rising food prices are bad in the US, visit many developing nations where it has become a real crisis, much worse than last year or in the past 20 years.

Now back to China. One fact to illustrate the scale of economic growth -- and therefore increased demand -- we're talking about: each year China emits as much additional carbon as Germany's entire annual carbon emission profile.
Bomb them and get them in line like we did the Japs. I'd rather see em in those silk robes and long pigtails again making my damned fried rice!
 

valve bouncer

Master Dildoist
Feb 11, 2002
7,843
114
Japan
Bomb them and get them in line like we did the Japs. I'd rather see em in those silk robes and long pigtails again making my damned fried rice!
You've actually managed to be completely tasteless and offensive on multiple levels. Top shelf PD forum work.:thumb:
 

jimmydean

The Official Meat of Ridemonkey
Sep 10, 2001
40,941
13,134
Portland, OR
My wife decided yesterday she was starting a co-op. She got together with the neighbors to set up a veggie exchange program. Since all I grow are hot peppers, she worked a deal to trade them for other stuff.

There was a show on the local public access a few days ago showing a local CSA (Community Supported Agriculture) group. You can volunteer to help in the harvest, or just pay the dues and every week you get a drop box of fresh (this one was organic, too) veggies. $484 for a 22 week season. At $22 a week, that's less than we spend at the store for non-organic produce.
 

jimmydean

The Official Meat of Ridemonkey
Sep 10, 2001
40,941
13,134
Portland, OR
We do veg and fruit shares from several local organic farms. Our town's farmers market kicks ass, too.
We hit the local markets too. I just grow WAY too many peppers and it seems like I might have way too many tomatoes this year, so a swap and trade should work out well.
 

dan-o

Turbo Monkey
Jun 30, 2004
6,499
2,805
I 'grow' ****loads of raspberries. If I sold them for $4/pint I could probably retire.
 

SPINTECK

Turbo Monkey
Oct 16, 2005
1,370
0
abc
So you were suckered by the oil companies,then by the defence industry, now the food industry says 'Hey I fancy some of that action" and once again, suckers be they take.

Idiots.
I have to agree. Americans (we) are just in denial. I don't suppose the NZ currency has crashed like ours???
 

jimmydean

The Official Meat of Ridemonkey
Sep 10, 2001
40,941
13,134
Portland, OR
wow, this is great, all these backyard farmers proposing solutions. I have one tomato plant on my urban balcony
I don't have any solutions. But I try not to rely on "the man" whenever possible. I grow better peppers than I can buy.
 

BurlyShirley

Rex Grossman Will Rise Again
Jul 4, 2002
19,180
17
TN
Because this situation has been looming for a while, what with the exponential growth of the human race and all... and because I have been looking to somehow exploit this whole "Organics" boom of late, I have been kicking around the idea of starting up an organic aquaculture facility.
First thing is that it'd be nice to be totally self sufficient, own my own business, etc. Second is that I already have the technical knowhow...outside of actually knowing how to conduct a private enterprise that is (no big deal Im sure... ha!) ...raising fish, freshwater prawns isn't altogether a difficult science. I've even emailed the marketing guy of the major farmer's market in Nashville, to ask him if anyone else is raising fish "organically," and he said no... he's never really seen it done anywhere, but thinks it's a hell of an idea. With some further research, Ive found out they do salmon this way up in BC, and it's a pretty big hit.
So with all these yuppies switching to hybrid cars and organic food...and this oncoming, supposed food shortage... It actually is beginning to sound like a practical idea. Now don't get me wrong here though, I could give two sh*ts if what Im eating is organic or not... but you have to find a niche, right? Seems like there's a market there to exploit.
Another great thing is that the USDA doesn't actually have a certification system for seafood... in terms of the big "USDA Organic" seal or whatever on the packaging... so basically I can call it organic even if it isn't, and there'll be no one to say otherwise. Although I would indeed like to market an honest product.
 

ohio

The Fresno Kid
Nov 26, 2001
6,649
23
SF, CA
I have been kicking around the idea of starting up an organic aquaculture facility.
Good luck farming fish without antibiotics... you have that many animals packed into tight quarters and they'll kill themselves off with disease if they're not pumped up on teh penicillin.
 

BurlyShirley

Rex Grossman Will Rise Again
Jul 4, 2002
19,180
17
TN
Good luck farming fish without antibiotics... you have that many animals packed into tight quarters and they'll kill themselves off with disease if they're not pumped up on teh penicillin.
That's really not a concern, at least in warmwater culture, unless you're really pushing the carrying capacity and the fish are stressed out. Then like anything, they become more susceptible to disease.
With good water quality, and plenty of food, no type of antibiotic would regularly be required.
In reality the fish are living a far more comfortable existence than they would in the wild, so disease rates should be significantly lower unless, like I said, you've got too many in there. There are stocking protocols that maximize production, but don't lead to disease.
 

ohio

The Fresno Kid
Nov 26, 2001
6,649
23
SF, CA
That's really not a concern, at least in warmwater culture, unless you're really pushing the carrying capacity and the fish are stressed out. Then like anything, they become more susceptible to disease.
How densely CAN you farm that way? Farm-raised vs wild tends to be about a 70-100% price increase so guessing you'd have to keep the density to within half of what the non-organic farms are doing to stay profitable...

Sounds cool. The huge objections to farm-raised salmon all stem from the density, disease, and antibiotic issues.
 

BurlyShirley

Rex Grossman Will Rise Again
Jul 4, 2002
19,180
17
TN
How densely CAN you farm that way? Farm-raised vs wild tends to be about a 70-100% price increase so guessing you'd have to keep the density to within half of what the non-organic farms are doing to stay profitable...

Sounds cool. The huge objections to farm-raised salmon all stem from the density, disease, and antibiotic issues.
Well densities will depend on a huge number of things, but most importantly:

Species: Catfish for example are extraordinarily hearty, unlike say, salmon or trout. So are tilapia. High densities and high water temps don't seem to give them alot of problems. And they grow to eating size in a season.

Water source: If im keeping a constant flow of water through a pond, say from a spring, rather than just having some stagnate stock pit, obviously I can keep more fish in there. Or say, if I have a big pen out in a lake that water is flowing through, density isn't going to influence water quality.

Sure, disease outbreaks occur, but that's the case with any kind of agriculture. As long as you aren't pushing things to their limits, problems like that are likely avoided. These huge fish farms are trying to maximize every square inch of production water, and it's probably more effective for them to simply keep the fish on antibiotics than to raise them in an environment that wouldnt require them. Salmon and trout are typically raised in concrete raceways. They're expensive to construct and maintain, and it's important to pack a ton of fish in there to make it worth while.
Down south, a few farm ponds, some aerators and you're pretty much set. You arent nearly as cramped for space, neither are the fish, land is cheap, pond construction isnt outrageous, so finding an efficient level of production without medicating the fish wouldn't be too hard. At least as far as I can figure.
Now, of course, there are huge fish farms down here, like Delta Pride, who have thousands of acres of production water, and like Walmart or something, produce at such high volumes that stuff is alot cheaper... but Im not trying to compete with that. Im trying to exploit this whole "local harvest, organic" thing. I would think I could charge somewhat of a premium for a premium product.
Also, restaurants love to advertise stuff they do uniquely like buying locally/organic in their menus. I could really see it working.

Edit: Sorry Im half drunk and rambling the same **** over and over.
 

ohio

The Fresno Kid
Nov 26, 2001
6,649
23
SF, CA
Water source: If im keeping a constant flow of water through a pond, say from a spring, rather than just having some stagnate stock pit, obviously I can keep more fish in there.
So, I'm no expert... everything I know is from a brief stint in Alaska and talking to folks up there, where open water salmon farms were supposed to be a godsend and have caused huge problems. As you describe they are just netted into natural waterways (in this case salt water for the fish to mature), but they are still having much more fish to fish contact than in the wild, which means more disease. You inherently have weaker fish that are disease susceptible. In the wild they go off and die on their own. On a farm they are in close enough proximity that they infect other fish. Doesn't matter how clean the water is. So these salmon are pumped up on antibiotics. The worst part is, that makes them resist disease, even when infected, but being the open water, wild salmon then swim by and contract the diseases. It has nearly wiped out whole wild fisheries.
 

BurlyShirley

Rex Grossman Will Rise Again
Jul 4, 2002
19,180
17
TN
Having farmed fish in contact with wild fish generally seems like a bad idea from the getgo anyway. After all, generally, when you're raising fish you want to at least buy your brood stock from a vendor who has certified, disease free stock. ALL wild fish have some type of parasite or disease, and you dont want your fish coming in contact with anything like that at all. Likewise, any kind of disease your fish might be immune to but still carry can be transferred to the wild and cause issues....just like you were saying.
Part of my google news page is directed to give me all the fisheries news going on, and so consequently I end up reading about alot of Alaska's issues. Seems like a damn mess that's heading downhill quick, but then again, the whole economy is based off fisheries production, so I could see why some issues get blown up so much. It's pretty much a tragedy what has happened to wild salmon populations in North America.
But really, these issues don't pop up in warmwater/freshwater fish so much as they do in salmon and trout. Salmon are really, really sensitive critters.
 

$tinkle

Expert on blowing
Feb 12, 2003
14,591
6
someone remind me again: why is it wal-mart & other grocery stores throw out tons of food every day? i know there's programs that take about-to-expire perishables & pass along via food programs, but if i fell upon hard times, i'd do anything this side of being a freegan to keep food on the table.

seems to me there's a missed opportunity here that i'm sure some genius lawyer made a killing insuring lots of quite edible food never makes it to those in want.

at the work fridge i would take & eat yogurt that was months expired from the poor sods who no longer worked there.
 

BurlyShirley

Rex Grossman Will Rise Again
Jul 4, 2002
19,180
17
TN
someone remind me again: why is it wal-mart & other grocery stores throw out tons of food every day? i know there's programs that take about-to-expire perishables & pass along via food programs, but if i fell upon hard times, i'd do anything this side of being a freegan to keep food on the table.

seems to me there's a missed opportunity here that i'm sure some genius lawyer made a killing insuring lots of quite edible food never makes it to those in want.

at the work fridge i would take & eat yogurt that was months expired from the poor sods who no longer worked there.
We could literally sit here all day and come up with examples of inefficiencies and/or grotesque-wasting of food supplies in this country. I don't find it hard to believe that rice may be a hot commodity at this point in time, but to panic that the world will go hungry is quite a stretch.
 

jimmydean

The Official Meat of Ridemonkey
Sep 10, 2001
40,941
13,134
Portland, OR
someone remind me again: why is it wal-mart & other grocery stores throw out tons of food every day? i know there's programs that take about-to-expire perishables & pass along via food programs, but if i fell upon hard times, i'd do anything this side of being a freegan to keep food on the table.

seems to me there's a missed opportunity here that i'm sure some genius lawyer made a killing insuring lots of quite edible food never makes it to those in want.

at the work fridge i would take & eat yogurt that was months expired from the poor sods who no longer worked there.
A kid in Florida just helped make things easier for stores and restaurants to be able to donate to food banks.

an 11-year-old Florida boy, Jack Davis, has done his part to address the problem in his state, spearheading efforts that recently resulted in a law making it less potentially problematic for restaurants and others to donate leftover fresh food to food banks.
Taken from the "Comments" section of the above article:

We must not wait any longer. Mr. President, pull all troops from the Middle East and invade Canada before your term expires! This is the only way for us to survive the coming famine.
:rofl:
 

$tinkle

Expert on blowing
Feb 12, 2003
14,591
6
We'll all soon be eating the muffin "stumps".

Today's obscure Sienfeld reference
raising your fat ass one obscure SotL & football reference:

and i'll be eating your muffin top, with some favre beans & a nice chianti
 

Stiff

Monkey
Sep 24, 2001
346
0
Miss Washington DC
I don't find it hard to believe that rice may be a hot commodity at this point in time, but to panic that the world will go hungry is quite a stretch.
It is an incomprehensible stretch to say hunger won't rise won't Burly. More than that, as food prices rise in much of the developing world, economic progress that has been made by countries is being lost (despite the negative reports, which are often incomplete).
http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/AFRICAEXT/0,,contentMDK:21727859~menuPK:258657~pagePK:2865106~piPK:2865128~theSitePK:258644,00.html

On your fish idea, you should check out an article in the Atlantic last year on the history of sushi. Some ideas in it for you to target niche upscale markets for a product like yours.

Or you could get into the business of aquaculture and fisheries certification.... create a revenue stream.