[N8 v2.0]

i'm sure it's just an anomaly tho.. nothing to see here.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111568/Gallup-Daily-Presidential-Race-Narrows-Slightly.aspx

The gap between Barack Obama and John McCain in Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Saturday through Monday has narrowed slightly, and Obama is now at 49% of the vote to 47% for McCain among likely voters..

 

[X3pilot]

Got to be because of all the early voting for Ross Perot....

 

[N8 v2.0]

Got to be because of all the early voting for Ross Perot....

ahhh... playing the perot card so soon... very crafty of you my good man...

very very crafty

 

[dante]

n8, for some reason you left out the rest of that last sentence...

PRINCETON, NJ -- The gap between Barack Obama and John McCain in Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Saturday through Monday has narrowed slightly, and Obama is now at 49% of the vote to 47% for McCain among likely voters using Gallup's traditional model, and at 51% to 44% using Gallup's expanded model.

but I'm sure that's just a typo though...

 

[jimmydean]

In other newz:

The Dow is UP, wait, it's DOWN, no, back UP...

 

[JohnE]

Gawd I hope Obama wins, just so N8 will shut up...can you imagine him gloating for the next 4 years? Along with the rest of the right wingers?

 

[Transcend]

Gallup's traditional model is useless, so nothing to see here.

 

[N8 v2.0]

Gawd I hope Obama wins, just so N8 will shut up...can you imagine him gloating for the next 4 years? Along with the rest of the right wingers?

no glotting if mccain wins.. just disgust until he's out of office

 

[N8 v2.0]

Gallup's traditional model is useless, so nothing to see here.

no kidding.

why even take a poll like that?

oh wait..

 

[Westy]

Gawd I hope Obama wins, just so N8 will shut up...can you imagine him gloating for the next 4 years? Along with the rest of the right wingers?

Of course if Obama wins everytime any bad news happens it will be blamed on Obama and anything good that happens will be because of what Bush did.

 

[Transcend]

no kidding.

why even take a poll like that?

oh wait..

It's called hedging your bets. 2 different models, drastically different results. Just like a republican campaign, "Hey if you lie and tell the truth you can never be wrong."

 

[jimmydean]

i'm sure it's just an anomaly tho.. nothing to see here.



http://www.gallup.com/poll/111568/Gallup-Daily-Presidential-Race-Narrows-Slightly.aspx

You need to tell your boys, then.

In a fundraising e-mail on behalf of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, Mitt Romney referred to "the very real possibility of an Obama presidency." In the Midwest, Gov. Tim Pawlenty gave a dour assessment of McCain's chances in his state, saying Barack Obama "has a pretty good advantage in Minnesota right now."

 

[johnbryanpeters]

Six days.

 

[$tinkle]

In other newz:

The Dow is UP, wait, it's DOWN, no, back UP...

must spreadinzee

 

[N8 v2.0]

Yet another flawed poll showing mccain pulling within 3..

Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Barack Obama attracting 50% of the vote nationwide while John McCain earns 47%. This is the first time McCain has been within three points of Obama in more than a month and the first time his support has topped 46% since September 24 (see trends). One percent (1%) of voters prefer a third-party option and 2% are undecided.

 

[JohnE]

Yes, but 3 what?

 

[vibiker]

Another worthless poll
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/mccain_trusted_more_on_taxes_and_economy

 

[jimmydean]

The McCain rallies are certainly smaller, say supporters, but that’s because Republicans are busier.

“We have to work,” said Kathy Dodley, who said that she could only go to McCain’s rally in Kettering because enough of the babies at the infant care center where she works didn’t come in that day. “Obama’s supporters are students and people who don’t have jobs.”

Man, I love the swelling ignorance of the right.

 

[Westy]

The McCain rallies are certainly smaller, say supporters, but that’s because Republicans are busier.

“We have to work,” said Kathy Dodley, who said that she could only go to McCain’s rally in Kettering because enough of the babies at the infant care center where she works didn’t come in that day. “Obama’s supporters are students and people who don’t have jobs.”

Man, I love the swelling ignorance of the right.

McCain's supporters are all old. They tried going but they drove so slow they arrived after it had ended.

 

[Westy]

Another worthless poll
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/mccain_trusted_more_on_taxes_and_economy

And another

Election 2008: Electoral College Update
Electoral College: Obama 260 McCain 163


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/election_2008_electoral_college_update

 

[N8 v2.0]

And another

Election 2008: Electoral College Update
Electoral College: Obama 260 McCain 163


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/election_2008_electoral_college_update

wow.. obama has lost ground.. i've seen his number as high as 320ish recently...

 

[Westy]

wow.. obama has lost ground.. i've seen his number as high as 320ish recently...

Numbers above don't count toss ups and leans. Assign every state to a candidate and obama has 320-340 depending onthe poll.

 

[N8 v2.0]

mo' poll newzies... definitely a tightening of the race goin on.

if mccain continues to gain at this rate he may well have a chance to pull it out of his ass...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ynews/ynews_pl114

 

[X3pilot]

waiting for the Obama infomercial bounce...

 

[Defenestrated]

“Obama’s supporters are students and people who don’t have jobs.”

Unemployment is at 6.1% http://www.bls.gov/

So by that logic McCain can't lose.

 

[N8 v2.0]

early voting from NV...

so far, looks like the under 30 crowd is doing what it usually does come time to vote..

 

[jimmydean]

Is it Nov. 4 already?

The only pole I care about is right here:

 

[$tinkle]

waiting for the Obama infomercial bounce...

i think you mean backlash; after delaying the w.s. already, he has the arrogance to think people will be ok w/ another act of "god" deferring their pleasure?

for the record, baseball is teh suxors

 

[Westy]

On average McCain has pulled out a point in the past week. If he grabs a point per day until the election it will be a close one.

 

[N8 v2.0]

On average McCain has pulled out a point in the past week. If he grabs a point per day until the election it will be a close one.

It is possible.. sports teams quite often come back in the last 2 minutes to defeat their opponents that have been (up till then) certain of victory..



http://www.mcclatchydc.com/227/story/54972.html

While he's still trailing, polls show McCain within reach and gaining, even if only slightly, both nationally and in some key battleground states.

"Sure, McCain can win," veteran conservative strategist Greg Mueller said. "It's not going to be easy. But it can be done."

Difficult? Yes. Impossible? No.

 

[Westy]

It is possible.. sports teams quite often come back in the last 2 minutes to defeat their opponents that have been (up till then) certain of victory..



http://www.mcclatchydc.com/227/story/54972.html

It is why they actually hold the election. One factor none of the Polls can really predict is who will actually go out and vote. One big difference is that something like 80% of people who say they will vote for Obama claim to be enthusiastic about it, only about 30% for McCain. It will be interesting but I wish it was over. Our election process takes way too ****ing long. Put the primaries and general election in a shorter period and it would cut down on the $$ required to run a successful campaign.

 

[N8 v2.0]

It is why they actually hold the election. One factor none of the Polls can really predict is who will actually go out and vote. One big difference is that something like 80% of people who say they will vote for Obama claim to be enthusiastic about it, only about 30% for McCain. It will be interesting but I wish it was over. Our election process takes way too ****ing long. Put the primaries and general election in a shorter period and it would cut down on the $$ required to run a successful campaign.

i really dont think you believe that.. esp holding the election right after the Rep convention..

but, you are right, it isnt over, until it's over.

i would not be surprised if this election was like 2000 with the final outcome taking days to resolve.

 

[ohio]

N8, could you please start another thread in the PAWN. Some useful threads have stayed on the front page for more than 5 minutes and it's very disorienting.

 

[jimmydean]

n8, how is the Dow doing? It's up again, right? Nope, down, oh wait...

 

[jimmydean]

n8, are you obsessing over polls because of the bandwagon effect?

I know it exists because I have heard people say they voted for this ot for that because the "didn't want to vote for the loser". It's absurd to me, but my in-laws are all like that.

 

[N8 v2.0]

n8, are you obsessing over polls because of the bandwagon effect?

I know it exists because I have heard people say they voted for this ot for that because the "didn't want to vote for the loser". It's absurd to me, but my in-laws are all like that.

not at all..

just a casual observer this election..

plus i like f'ing with you rabid obama homer's insecurities..

well, that and the real possibility obama can lose.

 

[ohio]

plus i like f'ing with you rabid obama homer's insecurities..
.

clearly the Obama supporters are the ones with insecurities.

 

[Transcend]

Here you go, more info on why some polls are complete garbage. Zogby shows mccain up by one, everyone else shows obama up by 6+ when they poll properly.

Matt Drudge is touting the results of a one-day sample in a Zogby poll, which apparently showed John McCain ahead by 1 point.

There are a couple of significant problems with this.

Firstly, there is a reason that pollsters include multiple days of interviewing in their tracking polls; a one-day sample is extremely volatile, and have very high margins for error.

Secondly, the Zogby polls have been particularly volatile, because he uses nonsensical party ID weightings, which mean that his weighting process involves making numbers doing naughty things that they usually don't like to do.

Thirdly, Zogby polls are generally a lagging rather than a leading indicator. This is because he splits his interviewing period over two days; most of the interviews that were conducted in this sample took place on Thursday night, with a few this afternoon. The reason this is significant is because lots of other pollsters were in the field on Thursday night, and most of them evidently showed good numbers for Obama, as he improved his standing in 6 of the 7 non-Zogby trackers.

Finally, there was no favorable news for McCain to drive these numbers. Polls don't move without a reason (or at least they don't move much).

 

[johnbryanpeters]

Three days.

 

[Transcend]

...and this is why you never use 1 day polling as any sort of meter.

Like I said, Gallup is full of it.

PRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama leads John McCain in Gallup Poll Daily tracking interviewing conducted Wednesday through Friday by an identical 52% to 42% margin among both traditional likely voters and expanded likely voters. Obama leads by a similar 52% to 41% margin among all registered voters.

And Zogby is even worse. Anyone who uses "nascar fans" as a demo deserves to be taken out back and beaten with a craftsman branded tire iron.

ollster John Zogby: "Obama has consolidated his lead over McCain. His single day lead today was back to 52%-42%. He leads by 10 among independents and has solidified his base. He leads among Hispanics by38 points, African Americans by 88, 18-24 year olds by 36, 18-29 year olds by 25, 25-34 year olds by 16, women by 8, and men by 3. He has a 17 point lead among those who have already voted, 22 by those who have registered to vote in the past 6 months, Moderates by 34, Catholics by 10. He even receives 21% support among Conservatives.

"So what happened to give McCain a one-point lead in the one-day polling on Friday? It was a day of consolidation for him, too. He had been losing support among key groups and began to regain some of his own base. He now leads by 21 points among NASCAR fans, 9 among investors, 6 among voters in armed forces households, and 2 among voters over 65 years old.