[dante]

So the more I've been watching what's going on in Greece, the more I'm starting to wonder whether we're watching the first round of a new revolution. Riots, strikes, violence, a perceived separation between the haves and have-nots, all have often led to the same outcome, a violent overthrow of the government and forced redistribution of wealth. French Revolution, Russian Revolution, Hitler's rise to power, etc, all started with MASSIVE popular discontent over economic conditions and distribution of wealth. It's almost as if capitalism will slowly widen the gap between haves and have-nots until there is such an unequal distribution between rich and poor that the 90+ (95+?) percent of the people who are the have-nots rise up and forcibly redistribute the wealth.

Or is this is even possible today, with electronic banking and fortunes built on trade instead of on accumulation of wealth? You can't just break into someone's house to steal their silver, since most of the wealth is just 1s and 0s out in cyberspace. It's not based on land anymore, so while the Russian Revolutionaries could demand redistribution of farmland to the serfs, in today's society it would be far harder. Maybe nationalization of the banking institutions and distributing the shares amongst the people? God what a clusterfvck voting for the board would become...

Dunno, I just have seen far more stable governments than Greece get toppled from far less than what's going on right now, and if a charismatic politician starts standing up and demanding immediate and violent change in the makeup of the government, who knows what would happen??

 

[Westy]

The general consensus of Greece from the rest of the EU is that Greeks are just ****ing lazy. They are in debt because of high entitlements and people are rioting because those entitlements may go away. These concessions come from the folks who are shelling out the money for their bail-out. Ask strangers for a few billion dollars and you might actually have to do something for it.

#

For instance:

# Greek government workers have received what are called "13th- and 14th-month salaries." That means they work for 12 months, but get paid for 14. Sweet deal, if it doesn't wreck your economy. Oh, wait. It does. So, Greece's back-breaking concession to get the European bailout is not to actually eliminate the 13th- and 14th-month salaries. Oh, no: These will not be Draconian cuts, despite the fact that Draco was Athens's original lawgiver -- they will merely be capped at a flat rate. Henceforth, government workers will get a flat 250 euro ($331) Easter bonus, a 500 euro ($662) Christmas bonus and an additional 250 euro "subsidy leave."

# Under the bailout, Greeks must now work until they are 67 years old. Up until now, they have been able to retire with pensions at -- take a guess -- 65? Nope. 62? Lower. 57? Keep going! 53? Bingo!

 

[eaterofdog]

The general consensus of Greece from the rest of the EU is that Greeks are just ****ing lazy. They are in debt because of high entitlements and people are rioting because those entitlements may go away.

Yep. Nobody pays taxes and the money isn't going to appear from nowhere, no matter how many plate glass windows you smash.

It's gonna be crazy if this starts up in the US. American's are packing.

 

[dante]

The general consensus of Greece from the rest of the EU is that Greeks are just ****ing lazy. They are in debt because of high entitlements and people are rioting because those entitlements may go away. These concessions come from the folks who are shelling out the money for their bail-out. Ask strangers for a few billion dollars and you might actually have to do something for it.

Aside from the fact that fvcking lazy people *generally* don't start revolutions, does that actually matter? I'd say what's far more important is what the rest of the population of Greece feels, unless the EU is prepared to send in troops to stem the civil unrest.

 

[$tinkle]

 

[Westy]

Aside from the fact that fvcking lazy people *generally* don't start revolutions,

Exactly, people are rioting because they have to work until past the age of 53. There will be no revolution.

 

[rockofullr]

At least they know who to pin this on, a black guy.

We are very unhappy with Obama, Costas said. I believe he felt that the euro was too strong and that the dollar had to be stronger, so he made decisions to bring down Greece as a result.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=126536428

 

[$tinkle]

i had heard the first domino fell w/ the olympics, bankrupting the city

i'd google it, but google is starting to look more like bing by the hour.

ed: not *THE* olympics; the one when phelps only won 6 medals

 

[$tinkle]

http://www.cnbc.com/id/36988229

anybody else get raped today?

 

[dante]

http://www.cnbc.com/id/36988229

anybody else get raped today?

You got stop-lossed out at the bottom?

 

[$tinkle]

rape-on-paper, not actual.

i wonder if those who had anything resembling a retirement plan still have viable options. not sure how similar to us they're structured (SS, 401k, etc.), and if they can just hunker down for a few years....or more...

 

[Silver]

What happens when the riot police find out they only get paid for 12 months and they have to work until they are 67?

 

[Westy]

What happens when the riot police find out they only get paid for 12 months and they have to work until they are 67?

I'd volunteer to tear gas those morons. What do they really expect their government to do?

Quite frankly the US needs to make some serious federal employee pay cuts.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2010-03-04-federal-pay_N.htm#chart

 

[$tinkle]

What happens when the riot police find out they only get paid for 12 months and they have to work until they are 67?

the streets will run blue w/ windex? white w/ ouzo? brown w/ anal leakage?

 

[eaterofdog]

What happens when the riot police find out they only get paid for 12 months and they have to work until they are 67?

Burn everything to the ground, eat some dolmades and take a nap?

 

[DamienC]

What happens when the riot police find out they only get paid for 12 months and they have to work until they are 67?

 

[Silver]

I'd volunteer to tear gas those morons. What do they really expect their government to do?

Quite frankly the US needs to make some serious federal employee pay cuts.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2010-03-04-federal-pay_N.htm#chart

We should start here:

Clergy $70,460 $39,247 $31,213

Why the **** are there clergy on the federal government payroll?

 

[$tinkle]

Why the **** are there clergy on the federal government payroll?

chaplains serve outside the military, too.

e: oh, you asked "why". in case they fire up the inquisition machine again?

 

[stoney]

http://www.cnbc.com/id/36988229

anybody else get raped today?

I made a small mint today. My volatility straddle went parabolic today, and a large number of my stink bids hit, buying me stock at 30-50% discounts. I need to see how many stick after NASDAQ wipes out a lot of the trades, but I will likely be selling a lot tomorrow after making 40-80% in one day.

 

[eaterofdog]

lookie lookie lookie

 

[manimal]

lookie lookie lookie

ummm...and?

 

[stoney]

Tomorrow is going to be a **** show in the markets.

The Merkel coalition looks to have lost power in Germany, there appears to have been a loan offer to Greece in Feb 2010 that would have very much alleviated the problems with IMF involvement, and civil and criminal probes have been opened into JPMorgan for manipulation of the silver markets.

While Greece has been the catalyst, the cause has been brewing for quite a while, and I think the house of cards is finally starting to come down...

 

[Pesqueeb]

Tomorrow is going to be a **** show in the markets.

The Merkel coalition looks to have lost power in Germany, there appears to have been a loan offer to Greece in Feb 2010 that would have very much alleviated the problems with IMF involvement, and civil and criminal probes have been opened into JPMorgan for manipulation of the silver markets.

While Greece has been the catalyst, the cause has been brewing for quite a while, and I think the house of cards is finally starting to come down...

Quoted for posterity.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/37054603

 

[stoney]

I just got back. That deal is ridiculous. $500 Billion bailout for Europe? Where the hell are the funds going to come from? The EURUSD is whipsawing right now, as it looks like the market is having trouble making heads/tails from this.
I was going to put on a very large leveraged short tomorrow am, but I need to digest what this will do to the mkt. Short term it looks positive, but there is no way that $500mmm being printed out of air isn't going to weaken the EUR, pushing the USd higher and US mkts lower.
Tomorrow is either going to be very down or very up (estimate 2.5% +/- on the news).

 

[dante]

You're off by a factor of 2.

$950b bailout plan...

 

[stoney]

You're off by a factor of 2.

$950b bailout plan...

I meant Euro's, but still off by $250b Eur. That's nuts.

 

[Pesqueeb]

I don't know much about this stuff, is it just me or is it starting to feel like Lehman Brothers again?

 

[stoney]

I don't know much about this stuff, is it just me or is it starting to feel like Lehman Brothers again?

Yes.5

 

[ridiculous]

futures are up +400. My shorts are going to get murdered. Im about to just sit the market out.

 

[eaterofdog]

Super volatile market lately, just crazy. Like my grandma used to say, it's going to end it tears.

 

[LOOnatic]

futures are up +400. My shorts are going to get murdered. Im about to just sit the market out.

I had some long futures but luckily have been short sugar and copper and have been shorting every 120 minute rally on the GBP and EUR 4x for a stint but i'm getting jittery now.

 

[ridiculous]

Times like this I wish I could sit back and just watch the market. Let alone play futures. Dont have anywhere near that much margin yet.

 

[dante]

Liberal or Conservative, any time a government has looked into the abyss of total financial meltdown they've always taken the (often unpopular) steps to ensure that credit is available. Bush did, the Democratic Congress did, the Conservatives over in Germany are doing that right now...

It makes me think that everyone that has access to the top-level economists that can lay out the various outcomes to scenarios like this is SCARED TO DEATH of what could happen. Nobody wants to be the Herbert Hoover of the 21st century, who had to wait around for 80 years before the teabagger group started trying to sell the idea that he was a great president.

So I've been thinking, I'm really, REALLY starting to get pissed off at this teabagger anti-TARP nonsense. Sen. Bennett in UT (not a moderate GOPer by any means) lost out a spot to be on the primary ballot because he voted for TARP. Really? It's great to sit in the opposition and criticize anything that the majority does, and when we *don't* have a systemic financial meltdown to claim that nothing should have been done in the first place. Because if the Democrats and GWB hadn't done anything and we really entered The Great Depression 2.0 with 25+% actually unemployed and tens of thousands of bank failures, they'd be criticizing the Dems (and GWB) for not doing anything.

Fvck I'm annoyed at the bullsh!t politics the GOP is playing right now. Maybe it's just because the Democrats suck at playing politics, but is it too much to hope for a moderate opposition party that actually tries to get things done instead of ruining the country just to get back into power???

 

[stevew]

Maybe it's just because the Democrats suck at playing politics...

really?

 

[Pesqueeb]

<snipped>

I absolutely agree with everything you say. As I&#8217;ve previously stated, a lot of this economic talk is Greek (no pun intended) to me. My concern is, are you not just propping up, as Joker says, a house of cards? Greece is in deep because of overspending/overleveraging and poor economic choices, and these factors remain even if the EU bails them out. Is all that&#8217;s being accomplished here just denying the inevitable for a year? And are you not putting yourself at risk for dangerous levels of inflation or severely leveraging future generations? The moneys got to come from some where, and while I&#8217;m one of the first to say that taxes should to be higher to a certain extent, how much can you spend before the tax burdens on the future become unsustainable?

*edit. Just to be clear, I'm asking these questions looking for serious answers, not trying to pick a e-fight.

 

[Pesqueeb]

From CNBC

Investors should watch how other central banks react to the plan over the coming days, he said. BNP is predicting the euro will hit parity with the dollar within 12 months.

Sweet! Time to start saving for that European trip I've been wanting to take the wife on.

 

[dante]

I absolutely agree with everything you say. As I’ve previously stated, a lot of this economic talk is Greek (no pun intended) to me. My concern is, are you not just propping up, as Joker says, a house of cards? Greece is in deep because of overspending/overleveraging and poor economic choices, and these factors remain even if the EU bails them out. Is all that’s being accomplished here just denying the inevitable for a year? And are you not putting yourself at risk for dangerous levels of inflation or severely leveraging future generations? The moneys got to come from some where, and while I’m one of the first to say that taxes should to be higher to a certain extent, how much can you spend before the tax burdens on the future become unsustainable?

*edit. Just to be clear, I'm asking these questions looking for serious answers, not trying to pick a e-fight.

Well, I view the financial backstopping of an economy is like giving someone cough medicine so they don't cough themselves to death while they're sick. Yes, you're only treating the symptoms and you have to fix the underlying economy, particularly in Greece where they're spending far more than they're taking in. However, that's not going to matter if the credit freeze catapults 2-3 countries into bankruptcy and takes down the Euro, the EU, and most of the rest of the world's economy with it. If Greece defaulted on its debt, Spain and Portugal would probably be next, since suddenly no one would want to lend to them anymore, causing their interest rates to go sky-high, leading to a default. It's a self-fulfilling prophesy. It's exactly what took down Bear, Lehman Bros, etc. There were enough "bear-raids" (no pun intended) that shook the confidence in the institution so that the company wasn't able to obtain working capital. With no access to working capital, bankruptcy was inevitable, and so everyone who was in on the bear-raids made a LOT of money.

What the US government did was provide unlimited capital to any and all financial institutions that needed it. That way, when a bear-raid targeted a financial institution causing their borrowing rates to skyrocket, they could borrow from the US government at >1% interest. It broke the cyclical "rumor-of-bad-news --> declining stock price --> higher borrowing costs --> declining stock price", and allowed companies to stay afloat. Furthermore, most of the TARP money has been repaid, or wasn't needed in the first place.

The way I see it, Europe is trying to do the exact same thing with it's member countries. Yes, there is still the issue of the underlying economy (just as there are billions of dollars of worthless mortgages on banks' books), but this prevents making a bad situation catastrophic. The main fear is debt deflation and a replay of the Great Depression...

As for the overall costs, yes, they are going to be astronomical, *but* they might be even higher if we didn't act. Tax revenues between 2008 and 2009 fell by $320b due to the recession. Just imagine if instead of only falling by ~7% (?) the GDP had fallen by a full third, just like it did in the 1930s... The tax hit would have been in the trillions of dollars, every single year. So instead of spending $700b (and getting most of that back), they would have had to either slash government spending by 60-70% (imagine eliminating all social programs *and* the military), with the resulting millions of unemployed people that go with those cuts, or borrow even more heavily than they are now.

At least that's the way I see it. I'm sure Joker will feel differently though.

 

[dante]

From CNBC

Sweet! Time to start saving for that European trip I've been wanting to take the wife on.

Ooooooh, maybe this will make Campy a viable alternative again!!!

 

[Pesqueeb]

...economic stuff...

K, just so I'm clear, debt deflation is just like regular deflation, but in terms of a countries credit availabilty? IE, in regular deflation people hoard cash expecting it to become worth more/deleveraging and in world government terms, Greek government debt (bonds, etc)no one wants to buy because of the risk, so Greek debt become worth less and less. Clear as mud?

 

[-BB-]

Ok, I have a question here...
What is the difference between a CIVIL war and a revolution? Does it depend on the side that wins?

So if the british had won the "revolutionary" war, would it be referred to as a Civil war?

Or if the south had won the "CIVIL" war, I take it they would have actually thought of it as a revolutionary war since they woudl have gotten their own country.


Just like one person't "freedom fighter" is another's terrorist?