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Home Prices up almost 15% in the 3rd quarter

N8 v2.0

Not the sharpest tool in the shed
Oct 18, 2002
11,003
149
The Cleft of Venus
Home Prices Show Big Increases in Summer
AP | Nov 15 10:04 AM US/Eastern | MARTIN CRUTSINGER

The nation's booming housing market continued to push prices higher in the summer and early fall with 69 metropolitan areas reporting double- digit increases compared with a year ago, a real estate trade group reported Tuesday.

The National Association of Realtors said that the median price of an existing home rose by 14.7 percent in the July-September quarter to $215,900, compared with a median price of $188,200 a year ago. The median is the midpoint where half the homes sold for more and half for less.

Led by Phoenix, Ariz., and Orlando, Fla., the nation's hottest markets far outperformed the nationwide figure. The price of existing homes sold during the third quarter in the Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale area jumped to $268,000, a whopping 55.2 percent higher than the same period a year ago. Orlando has the second biggest increase, a gain of 44.8 percent to $261,300, followed closely by Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla., where home prices were up 42.5 percent to $277,600.

Some economists have expressed concern that demand for housing in some parts of the country is being driven by a speculative frenzy that could burst the price bubble as mortgage rates continue to climb. Freddie Mac's nationwide survey showed that the 30-year mortgage hit 6.36 percent last week, the highest level in more than two years.

However, most analysts believe that rising mortgage rates will simply moderate the double-digit gains in home prices that home sellers have enjoyed in recent years, rather than cause sharp declines in home prices.

"The good news is that inventory levels are improving and housing supply will come closer to buyer demand in 2006," said David Lereah, chief economist for the Realtors. "We expect a healthy and more balanced market next year."

The Realtors' latest survey showed that 69 metropolitan areas _ nearly half of the 147 areas surveyed _ enjoyed double-digit price gains in the July-September quarter compared with a year earlier.

At the other end of the scale, six metro areas saw small price declines, led by a 5.4 percent drop in home prices in Elmira, N.Y., where the median price fell to $77,100, compared with $81,500 in the third quarter of 2004.
 

Barbaton

Turbo Monkey
May 11, 2002
1,477
0
suburban hell
Today's Wall Street Journal has a different take:

Housing Market Shows Further Signs of Cooling

The pace of U.S. home sales is showing further sighs of slowing, amid a widening gap between sellers' asking prices and the amount skittish buyers are prepared to offer, according to an industry survey, real-estate brokerage firms and housing economists.
 

Westy

the teste
Nov 22, 2002
56,416
22,507
Sleazattle
The Realtors' latest survey showed that 69 metropolitan areas _ nearly half of the 147 areas surveyed _ enjoyed double-digit price gains in the July-September quarter compared with a year earlier.
At the other end of the scale, six metro areas saw small price declines, led by a 5.4 percent drop in home prices in Elmira, N.Y., where the median price fell to $77,100, compared with $81,500 in the third quarter of 2004.

I'm going to Elmira tomorrow. Beautiful mountains/hills in the area but that down is a depressing craphole. Sorry if I've offended any Elmira :monkey: s.
 

Echo

crooked smile
Jul 10, 2002
11,819
15
Slacking at work
Westy said:
I'm going to Elmira tomorrow. Beautiful mountains/hills in the area but that down is a depressing craphole. Sorry if I've offended any Elmira :monkey: s.
How long you gonna be there? If you're there over the weekend we should ride.
 

Westy

the teste
Nov 22, 2002
56,416
22,507
Sleazattle
I hope things slow down. Locally there are developement plans that will increase the area population by a good 15% with no plans on improving an already taxed infrastructure.
 

Westy

the teste
Nov 22, 2002
56,416
22,507
Sleazattle
N8 said:
I'd like to do some urban in-fill projects.

Would you go outside what you've normally buit design wise? Not trying to bust your balls about the houses you've built, just wondering if you would try new designs.
 

N8 v2.0

Not the sharpest tool in the shed
Oct 18, 2002
11,003
149
The Cleft of Venus
Westy said:
Would you go outside what you've normally buit design wise? Not trying to bust your balls about the houses you've built, just wondering if you would try new designs.
Depends on how outside the norm you are talking about.

I'd be willing to do it if it was a custom job. That way my risk would be minimized.
 

narlus

Eastcoast Softcore
Staff member
Nov 7, 2001
24,658
65
behind the viewfinder
douglas said:
a 6% increase in sales (compare Nov 04 to Nov 05) doesnt seem all that bad to me
sure, if you compare the last 12 month period. but looking at a 6 month period or shorter and the trend isn't so rosy. i guess it only really matters if you are looking to buy/sell, of which i am not.

regardless, i think it's safe to say that the housing market in my area has definitely cooled and is contracting.
 

narlus

Eastcoast Softcore
Staff member
Nov 7, 2001
24,658
65
behind the viewfinder
yep, can only speak about this area...prices haven't dropped that much, but sales are definitely off...people are digging in longer, hoping to get a certain price for their house. next step would be for either sales to continue to drop, or prices drop and sales once again pick up.

there are a lot of houses for sale in my particular town, some of which have been on the market for quite a while.
 

N8 v2.0

Not the sharpest tool in the shed
Oct 18, 2002
11,003
149
The Cleft of Venus
narlus said:
yep, can only speak about this area...prices haven't dropped that much, but sales are definitely off...people are digging in longer, hoping to get a certain price for their house. next step would be for either sales to continue to drop, or prices drop and sales once again pick up.

there are a lot of houses for sale in my particular town, some of which have been on the market for quite a while.
Locally there is a glut of large homes in the $250k+ range that are on the market because the owners bought them with interest only ARMs... :dead:
 

Polandspring88

Superman
Mar 31, 2004
3,066
7
Broomfield, CO
narlus said:
there are a lot of houses for sale in my particular town, some of which have been on the market for quite a while.
So true. A quick bike ride to Carlisle will yield many many houses up for sale, with a relative few actually being purchased.
 

ohio

The Fresno Kid
Nov 26, 2001
6,649
26
SF, CA
N8 said:
Locally there is a glut of large homes in the $250k+ range that are on the market because the owners bought them with interest only ARMs... :dead:
Yup, it'll be the same story here in about a year, conhsidering the Bay Area housing market, it's already causing a bit of a panic as people scramble to sell BEFORE those hit the market... I'm actually really looking forward to it as I'd like to buy but it's so damn inflated.
 

narlus

Eastcoast Softcore
Staff member
Nov 7, 2001
24,658
65
behind the viewfinder
aye, it definitely depends on the seller's motivations...in some cases, it could be empty nesters who are selling and planning on moving to a smaller house and/or different region of the country. or could be a job relocation, which pretty much negates the ability to hold for the price you want. we've got some friends in the neighborhood who are moving back to germany; they've got something like 60 days to sell their house, or the relocation company will buy it for $X. of course they want to get a better price than $X, but if they will be able or not remains to be seen. and there are at least 4 similar houses for sale in the immediate vicinity. makes for an interesting dynamic (i don't know the other seller's situations).
 

Silver

find me a tampon
Jul 20, 2002
10,840
1
Orange County, CA
mtbtom said:
Again, MOST sellers. There's no need to obscure the issue with another data point.
Lenders have written a boatload of ARMs in the last 6 years. It's going to be a higher % of sellers than you may think...
 

reflux

Turbo Monkey
Mar 18, 2002
4,617
2
G14 Classified
N8 said:
no doubt!
I just read during my lunch break that countrywide, 30% of all new mortgages are option ARMs, with the average in CA being 25%.

"You will receive a monthly bill from us. If you feel like making a payment, please go ahead and do so."

Creative mortgages are sure as hell making the next few years interesting.
 

narlus

Eastcoast Softcore
Staff member
Nov 7, 2001
24,658
65
behind the viewfinder
well i did bump this thread, which was originally posted about 9 months ago.

i don't think it will be a big crash, but the numbers don't lie (in terms of relative house worth far outstripping salary and stock market annual increases for the last 5 or so years...imagine trying to buy a starter home now in the greater boston area (within 128) if you are under say 30, esp if you are not trading up?)
 

N8 v2.0

Not the sharpest tool in the shed
Oct 18, 2002
11,003
149
The Cleft of Venus
narlus said:
well i did bump this thread, which was originally posted about 9 months ago.

i don't think it will be a big crash, but the numbers don't lie (in terms of relative house worth far outstripping salary and stock market annual increases for the last 5 or so years...imagine trying to buy a starter home now in the greater boston area (within 128) if you are under say 30, esp if you are not trading up?)

There will be a small crash in areas that are far over valued... parts of Cali/some of the east coast etc...
 

ohio

The Fresno Kid
Nov 26, 2001
6,649
26
SF, CA
mtbtom said:
Again, MOST sellers. There's no need to obscure the issue with another data point.
In highly speculative markets (cities, especially the Bay Area) I would be shocked if a large minority, if not majority, of sellers are on ARMs next year.
 

ohio

The Fresno Kid
Nov 26, 2001
6,649
26
SF, CA
mtbtom said:
people waiting for the "big housing market crash"
I'm not waiting for a "crash." I'm waiting for a correction. Expecting 5%, hoping for 10%, with a lot more options to choose from.

Real estate will always be a tangible asset... no ones expecting a dot com bubble, here.
 

Brian HCM#1

Don’t feed the troll
Sep 7, 2001
32,286
395
Bay Area, California
The market out here is starting to slow down, houses are sitting longer, larger inventory and it's becoming more of a buyers market. It had to happen, just got to sit tight and ride it out the next 2-4 years and it will make full circle..........again.
 

N8 v2.0

Not the sharpest tool in the shed
Oct 18, 2002
11,003
149
The Cleft of Venus
Existing Home Sales Drop in July
Aug 23 10:35 AM US/Eastern
By JEANNINE AVERSA
AP Economics Writer


WASHINGTON

Sales of previously owned homes plunged in July to the lowest level in 2 1/2 years and the inventory of unsold homes climbed to a new record high, fresh signs that the housing market has lost steam.
The National Association of Realtors reported Wednesday that sales of existing homes and condominiums dropped by 4.1 percent in July from June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.33 million. That was the lowest level since January 2004.

The latest snapshot of housing activity was weaker than analysts anticipated. Economists were forecasting the pace of sales to fall to 6.55 million.

"The housing sector is fragile," said David Lereah, the association's chief economist.

The median price of a home sold last month was $230,000. That was up just 0.9 percent from the same month last year and marked the smallest year-over-year increase since May 1995. The median price is the middle point, where half sell for more and half sell for less.

The inventory of unsold homes in July rose to a record high of 3.86 million. At the current sales pace, it would take 7.3 months to exhaust that overhang. That is the longest period to exhaust the supply of home since the spring of 1993.

On Wall Street, the weak housing report dragged stocks down. The Dow Jones were down 8 points in morning trading.

By region, sales dropped by 5.4 percent in the Northeast. They fell by 5.9 percent in the Midwest and 1.2 percent in the South. Sales declined by 6.4 percent in the West.

Wednesday's report shows that the bloom is off the rose.

For five years running, home sales had hit record highs as low mortgage rates lured buyers. But the housing sector has lost steam this year as mortgage rates have gone up and would-be buyers have grown cautious amid high energy prices and a slowing economy.

Against that backdrop, the Federal Reserve earlier this month decided to halt a rate-raising campaign that had pushed interest rates steadily higher over the last two-plus years to fend off inflation.

The Fed's goal is to raise rates sufficiently to thwart inflation but not enough to hurt the economy.

One of the things that Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues are watching closely is the housing slowdown. If home prices and sales were to crash, that could spell big trouble for the overall economy. Thus far, Bernanke has said the market's slowdown has been fairly orderly and smooth.

Lereah said he still expects a "soft landing" for the once high-flying housing sector. But he urged the Fed to leave interest rates alone and refrain from bumping them up again _ as some analysts have said is a possibility.

The housing sector's transition from a red-hot market to a cool one has important implications for the overall economy.

Consumers who watched their homes rise rapidly in value over the last several years felt wealthy and more inclined to spend. They also borrowed against their homes _ treating them like ATMs _ to support their spending ways.

But with home values not going up as much now as the double-digit gains seen in the past several years, consumers have tightened their belts. That has contributed to a slowing in overall economic activity.

Recent reports underscore the housing slowdown's impact.

Luxury home builder Toll Brothers on Tuesday reported a sharp drop in third-quarter profits. One day earlier Lowe's Cos., the nation's second-largest home-improvement chain, warned that a slowing housing market will hurt its earnings for the rest of the year.

Last week the National Association of Home Builders reported that confidence among builders sank to a 15-year low.
 

DirtyDog

Gang probed by the Golden Banana
Aug 2, 2005
6,598
0
I live in a hot market, and prices are stagnant here. All the speculators have dumped their homes on the market at the same time, nearly doubling inventory. I would imagine that once the flipper inventory is finally absorbed by legitimate home buyers, we will see prices start to slowly increase again.
 

jimmydean

The Official Meat of Ridemonkey
Sep 10, 2001
43,552
15,782
Portland, OR
There are a lot of empty homes around here. There are also a TON of empty condos that people thought were going to sell out like crazy. There has been a huge slow down in the building of new homes as well as the sale of existing.

I am waiting for a year to buy and get a kiler house price in this area. Prices have taken a big hit and will get a lot worse before they get any better.