How I think the 2012 horse race will turn out:
Rick Perry will win the GOP presidential nomination. This will occur even after Sarah Palin throws her hat in the ring late in the game (possibly after the Iowa primary itself), possibly in hopes of landing herself a second VP nomination if the initial attempt fails. Ron Paul will continue to be irrelevant despite being right on many issues. Obama will not face a primary challenger of any sort and will instead "stay the course" and play the same "re-elect a wartime president" tune that I find loathsome in the context of wars that he has elected to start or continue.
Left-wing writers will poke sundry and various valid, logical holes in Rick Perry's background, record, and claimed accomplishments. Right-wing voters will proceed to not pay attention to any of the above, instead concentrating on his rhetoric, nicely edited clips played over and over on Fox News, and his (very non-inclusive, narrowly defined, uncharitable) strong supposedly Christian beliefs.
The economy will continue to get worse through 2012 in terms of the true measures, even though nominal unemployment may creep back into the 8.x% range with more discouraged workers. The Fed will continue to not engage in QEIII, electing instead to prop up large-corporation balance sheets with quiet, low-interest under the table money. Those same corporations will continue to turn nice profits on lower revenues and leaner operations, which means less jobs, more money for the management, and stagnant wages for the working class. Untruths will continue to be widely disseminated and repeated and requoted and recycled and rephrased in the press about the efficacy of ARRA until even liberal voters start to question it. As a result there'll be no popular support for another round of stimulus, and instead we'll travel down the same path of austerity that has served Britain so splendidly thus far (see "riots").
What it'll all come down to in the final outcome of the 2012 election, what it'll all hinge on, is who Perry picks as VP. The economy itself sure isn't going to do a sitting president any favors at all, and Obama has alienated many of his early supporters through his attitude of accommodation at all costs. If Perry picks someone too obviously insane as VP (Palin or Bachmann come to mind) then enough fence-sitters might be disgusted enough to note vote or vote Democrat and Obama may prevail Pick someone less polarizing and Obama may well lose, black-box electronic voting machines and their troubles entirely aside.
How much will this all matter in the end? Will even the "worst" outcome cause me to emigrate? No. In all honesty, national politics won't directly affect me all that much in the 2012-2016 period apart from the usual party-independent wrangling about Medicare reimbursement rates, at least with the not-so-safe assumption that neither Obama nor Perry is insane enough to invade Iran, North Korea, or Pakistan. For better or worse, both parties look after my particular interests as a well-educated, well-compensated professional with vocal lobbyists pleading my field's cause equally well or poorly, depending on one's perspective.
The choice of who is in the Oval Office will definitely set the tone of national discourse, however, and having a person who would seemingly remake the nation, Constitution be damned, into a modern/warped/militaristic "Christian" theocracy will make for some ugly times. The Islamophobia that the right-wing press has lapped up so eagerly will continue to fester, and closed-minded communities will continue to press forward with discriminatory, un-Constitutional measures to keep "them" distinct from "us." The sad thing is that we just may well be collectively stupid and closed-minded as a nation of voters to deserve exactly such a president with such consequences again.
Rick Perry will win the GOP presidential nomination. This will occur even after Sarah Palin throws her hat in the ring late in the game (possibly after the Iowa primary itself), possibly in hopes of landing herself a second VP nomination if the initial attempt fails. Ron Paul will continue to be irrelevant despite being right on many issues. Obama will not face a primary challenger of any sort and will instead "stay the course" and play the same "re-elect a wartime president" tune that I find loathsome in the context of wars that he has elected to start or continue.
Left-wing writers will poke sundry and various valid, logical holes in Rick Perry's background, record, and claimed accomplishments. Right-wing voters will proceed to not pay attention to any of the above, instead concentrating on his rhetoric, nicely edited clips played over and over on Fox News, and his (very non-inclusive, narrowly defined, uncharitable) strong supposedly Christian beliefs.
The economy will continue to get worse through 2012 in terms of the true measures, even though nominal unemployment may creep back into the 8.x% range with more discouraged workers. The Fed will continue to not engage in QEIII, electing instead to prop up large-corporation balance sheets with quiet, low-interest under the table money. Those same corporations will continue to turn nice profits on lower revenues and leaner operations, which means less jobs, more money for the management, and stagnant wages for the working class. Untruths will continue to be widely disseminated and repeated and requoted and recycled and rephrased in the press about the efficacy of ARRA until even liberal voters start to question it. As a result there'll be no popular support for another round of stimulus, and instead we'll travel down the same path of austerity that has served Britain so splendidly thus far (see "riots").
What it'll all come down to in the final outcome of the 2012 election, what it'll all hinge on, is who Perry picks as VP. The economy itself sure isn't going to do a sitting president any favors at all, and Obama has alienated many of his early supporters through his attitude of accommodation at all costs. If Perry picks someone too obviously insane as VP (Palin or Bachmann come to mind) then enough fence-sitters might be disgusted enough to note vote or vote Democrat and Obama may prevail Pick someone less polarizing and Obama may well lose, black-box electronic voting machines and their troubles entirely aside.
How much will this all matter in the end? Will even the "worst" outcome cause me to emigrate? No. In all honesty, national politics won't directly affect me all that much in the 2012-2016 period apart from the usual party-independent wrangling about Medicare reimbursement rates, at least with the not-so-safe assumption that neither Obama nor Perry is insane enough to invade Iran, North Korea, or Pakistan. For better or worse, both parties look after my particular interests as a well-educated, well-compensated professional with vocal lobbyists pleading my field's cause equally well or poorly, depending on one's perspective.
The choice of who is in the Oval Office will definitely set the tone of national discourse, however, and having a person who would seemingly remake the nation, Constitution be damned, into a modern/warped/militaristic "Christian" theocracy will make for some ugly times. The Islamophobia that the right-wing press has lapped up so eagerly will continue to fester, and closed-minded communities will continue to press forward with discriminatory, un-Constitutional measures to keep "them" distinct from "us." The sad thing is that we just may well be collectively stupid and closed-minded as a nation of voters to deserve exactly such a president with such consequences again.
just above: