[dante]

Chuckle... Nothing like getting the FBI involved.

Some funnies:

Although the investigation has been underway for at least a year, recent revelations that the governor's spokesperson has been granted immunity and that another top aide had her house raided by the FBI, has the state abuzz with speculation about the target and scope of the investigation.

In her DOA job, Archer made about $124,000 a year, but in mid-August she mysteriously quit to become a lower level "legislative liaison" at the Wisconsin Department of Children and Families. Now it is becoming clear that the new job was organized by the governor's office. She will be paid $99,449 a year -- $39,129 more than the $60,320 the last person to hold the job made -- a 65 percent increase. Nice work if you can get it.

Archer has not yet shown up for her new job and is apparently using some of her banked sick leave from a previous stint with state government to take some time off.

Three days after Cindy Archer was to have started her job as the legislative liaison at the state Department of Children and Families - and while she was already being paid sick leave for it - the agency interviewed someone else for the same job.

tl;dr - Political appointee for Walker is under investigation by the FBI, so she quits current job and is given one for $100k... and doesn't even bother showing up for work since she's burning sick time for it.

We might not need to recall Walker, as he might be in handcuffs at the time.

edit: Oh, and the state is looking at having Archer's 3-page sworn testimony retracted so that they don't have to answer questions about it's validity...

 

[dante]

1 million+ signatures delivered to recall Walker, 800k+ to recall his idiot Lt. Governor. They needed 540k (25% of the number of total votes in the last governor's election), and ended up with an additional 85%. Almost as many people signed the recall petitions as voted for the governor in the last election... Needless to say they're not going to be able to verify signatures in the 30-day window mandated by law, and might not even get the to them all in 60 days since the Republicans went judge-shopping and found one that was willing to mandate that the GAB check all of the signatures for duplicates and obvious fakes. My guess is that the Republicans are desperate to push this out as long as possible so that a) they can have more time to push through legislation and b) to push it out of the spring and into the summer when the college students aren't at school.

Fun times... Apparently we collected a greater % of the previous voters than any other governor recall in history, and had as many people sign the petitions as actually voted for the loser in the '10 governor's election. Our governor could not be reached for comment, since he's fund-raising in NYC for his recall election. He can raise unlimited donations until the signatures are certified, so he's already collected $250k from the Swift-Boats-Against-Kerry guy and $210k from the family that owns Uline.

edit: Oh, and an additional 4 Republican State Senators also had signatures turned in for their recall, including the head of the Senate.

 

[$tinkle]

My guess is that the Republicans are desperate to push this out as long as possible so that a) they can have more time to push through legislation and b) to push it out of the spring and into the summer when the college students aren't at school.

they could use the same marriott across state lines the democrats did & double up their reward points

 

[dante]

Oh this should end well....... The 900,000+ verified recall signers have all been plotted in a neat and easy-to-use program that incorporates Google Maps. So you enter your zip code and you can drill down to exactly which of your neighbors signed and who didn't. In my area (zip code 53716, city is "Monona" once you drill down far enough) probably 50%+ of the people signed it, but what about in those areas where there's only a few Democrats living among hordes of Republicans? It's really easy to look at the map of your street and see exactly whether your neighbors are Democrats or not.

On the flip side, it makes it a REALLY easy tool for the Democrat's "get out the vote" campaign come June 5th...

 

[kidwoo]

If you are unhappy to have your information listed in this tool then you shouldn't have placed that information on a public document. We are not interested in hearing you whining about your mistake.

Nice.

 

[$tinkle]

voter intimidation's a helluva drug

 

[jonKranked]

i don't get it... was that map created by people who are butthurt over the recall?

 

[dante]

Yup. The thing is I'm just shocked at how dumb the Walker supporters have to be to put this out there. I mean, it literally maps out every single "strong democrat" voter in an easy-to-read format. For the Democratic get-out-the-vote campaign, all they have to do is print out the map and make sure that every single person on it gets out and votes, and they'll be more than 80% of the way to getting more votes than Walker did. Combine that with the fact that since it's a special election and overall turnout will probably be down compared to the general 2010 election, it could end up being a landslide.

Also, not only are the names/address/places on the map set for the "strong Democrat", they also have contact info for ~30,000 "really, really strong Democrats" who actually went out and collected signatures.

Lastly, WI has "early in-person absentee voting", which means that you can swing by city hall, fill out your ballot and hand it in for 2 weeks before the election. It rewards the side with the stronger ground-game, because you can start asking people to vote early, and then follow up with them to make sure that they did. It's one of the reasons that Obama won by such a big margin here in '08.

 

[jonKranked]

thanks for explaining. wasn't sure how exactly things worked in ye olde cheese state.

 

[Pesqueeb]

stuff

Conversely, you now also know that for every address that doesn't appear on that list is the residence of someone who's, at best, politically ambivalent, or at worst, an enemy. That map really is a two sided coin IMO.

 

[jonKranked]

just wait till the burning crosses start appearing

 

[dante]

Not really. On my street there are 12 homes, and only 7 signed petitions. Out of the remaining 5 who didn't sign:

1 is Conservative (heavily)
1 is *probably* conservative (but you never know around here)
1 is mixed (he's conservative while his wife is liberal but didn't sign the petition)
1 is probably ambivalent or not able to vote (ethnic Hmong, I don't know them too well)
1 is probably liberal based on the fact that it's a young family here in Monona

So it might be a place for conservatives to *start*, interviewing them in person and seeing if they're conservative/liberal, but it'd still be a lot more work. Remember, there are 3.4m registered voters in WI, and another 1m unregistered adults here as well. So only ~20% of all adults in WI signed a petition, meaning the Republicans would have to sift through the 80% who didn't.

 

[dan-o]

That map really is a two sided coin IMO.

^This.

If somebody was butthurt enough to sign the recall petition chances are good they'll follow up and vote.
This map shows republicans which houses to ignore (butt-hurts, and really, really butthurts) and allows them to focus on everyone else.

You have to remember Walker had enough support to win once and those people had no reason to act in regards to working for a recall. They'll come out of the woodwork for the actual election to thwart the socialist masses looking to redistribute freedom. A flag-flying pick-up with a payload of cheese curds idling towards the polls will be irresistible to the average pear-shaped WI resident, especially if its equipped with a Rascal recharging station.

 

[dante]

^This.

If somebody was butthurt enough to sign the recall petition chances are good they'll follow up and vote.
This map shows republicans which houses to ignore (butt-hurts, and really, really butthurts) and allows them to focus on everyone else.

You have to remember Walker had enough support to win once and those people had no reason to act in regards to working for a recall. They'll come out of the woodwork for the actual election to thwart the socialist masses looking to redistribute freedom. A flag-flying pick-up with a payload of cheese curds idling towards the polls will be irresistible to the average pear-shaped WI resident, especially if its equipped with a Rascal recharging station.

What's funny is that WI is such a mixed state that you can often see the beat-up old pickup truck with a gun rack/American flag and a "recall Walker" sticker. Much of the Democratic support comes from the "rural working class", while the main Republican areas are the upscale suburbs of Milwaukee. Around here you're far more likely to see Republican bumper stickers on the back of a Cadillac/GMC Acadia than you are on a rusted-out 1970s Ford F150.

 

[$tinkle]

You have to remember Walker had enough support to win once and those people had no reason to act in regards to working for a recall. They'll come out of the woodwork for the actual election to thwart the socialist masses looking to redistribute freedom. A flag-flying pick-up with a payload of cheese curds idling towards the polls will be irresistible to the average pear-shaped WI resident, especially if its equipped with a Rascal recharging station.

i would expect 550 cold-cranking-amps of rascal support to be thrown toward the preservation of entitlements, perceived or otherwise.

this'll be more about the here-and-now more than this pie-in-the-sky goal of fiscal responsibility, if that's how it's being couched by the walker fanboiz

 

[dante]

Follow-up. Here's a screen-shot from parts of my neighborhood. Note how the vast majority of lake-side homes ($1.5-2m worth) *didn't* sign, but the vast majority of non-lake-side homes ($150-200k) did.

 

[$tinkle]

absent snow birds?

 

[dante]

Nah, even our millionaires are tougher than those in the North East...

 

[sanjuro]

Recall Walker!

 

[$tinkle]

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=759686

 

[$tinkle]

http://weaskamerica.com/2012/05/24/turnout/

 

[dante]

Walker by *12%*? Wow, that poll is certainly an outlier...

Other polls are mostly within the margin of error.

The other thing is that there is a massive get out the vote campaign by the Democrats, who have a list of 900,000+ people who were willing to sign a recall petition (and another large number of Democratic leaning people). There's the state Democratic party, there's WEAC (teacher's union), there's Democracy for America, all are concentrating on getting people to go out and vote. It's far more reminiscent of '08 when Obama won by 7% than in '10 when there was *no* GOTV on the Democratic side (and Walker won by 5%).

On the downside, there are Walker ads running *constantly*, and Barrett's been outspent ~25-1 (including some dubious jobs numbers). The other negative for Barrett is that Walker pushed back the recall election *just* long enough that the students aren't going to be in college. They started leaving right about the same time as the early-absentee voting began.

 

[$tinkle]

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=759686

92.4%

(unrelated: 2012 gen'l election -> obama @ 57.5% / romney @ 38.8%)

 

[dante]

*chuckle* We'll see. I've seen far greater enthusiasm and get-out-the-vote efforts on the Democratic side here than even in '08 when Obama won by ~7 percentage points. Higher turnout also bodes well for the Democrats, and they're predicting 10-15% higher turnout than in '10 when the Governor was elected.

*If* (and that's a huge if) that turnout is correct, Walker's done. Walker won in '10 because the Tea Party showed up and everyone else didn't.


Damn, now I'm off to see if I can learn enough about Intrade to drop a couple bucks on the Walker/Barrett race...

 

[dante]

So, apparently a) I *can't* participate in InTrade and b) It's honestly utterly worthless in trying to predict the WI governor's race. Here's a quote from the article I linked:

Second, and relatedly, the market is quite thin. If the managers of Presidential campaigns cared what Intrade said, they could shift the markets a long way for a very modest outlay. For example, shares in Ron Paul, with a $10.00 payoff if we wins the Repub nomination, are currently trading at 0.27, implying a 2.7 per cent chance. But a Paul fan who wanted to raise his estimated chances could push them up to 0.40 for an outlay of $1000 (there are about 3000 shares for sale at prices between 0.27 and 0.40).

There's all of ~100 shares currently for sale (and primarily only because someone just offered 50 at $9.37). Someone with ~$500 could move the market, and far more so if they'd decided to drop a couple grand (and Walker's got the money). The person who just offered 50 shares at $9.37 is wagering a grand total of $31, with a win of $500 if Barrett pulls it out. There's no *way* that's anywhere near normal odds...

 

[$tinkle]

could that be the equivalent of buying a palette of your own books when it hits the market to artificially inflate the popularity? likely.

the free market says 'lolwut'

e: pump-n-dump

 

[dante]

There's talk of a couple here who were paid $100 to have a "I stand with Walker" sign placed in their front yard (busy street). When you have ~$50 million to blow why not spend a couple grand to run up an obscure race on InTrade?

Care to give me the same 94/100 (roughly 16-1) odds on say.....$100?

 

[$tinkle]

http://weaskamerica.com/2012/06/04/who-survives/

walker by 12, give/take

intrade has walker @ 95%

 

[dante]

Care to give me the same 94/100 (roughly 16-1) odds on say.....$100?

The fact that you won't is quite telling, especially since the "odds" are now at an even 20-1.....

Local update:

The get-out-the-vote campaign is definitely in full-gear. Lots of volunteers roaming the neighborhoods.

Quite a few fliers have shown up, including a very, very interesting one.

The mailer reveals whether the recipient and 12 of his or her neighbors have voted in the past two general elections, in 2008 and 2010.

Now, on the one hand it's slightly disturbing to see your name, and that of your neighbors on a full sheet of paper listing exactly who voted in which election. It's all public knowledge, as the GAB keeps records of it (and you can look it up by someone's name as to whether they voted or not), but seems to be a bit of an invasion of privacy.

On the other hand, it's been proven to work:

In one experiment, the group sent mailers to a number of Michigan voters prior to an August primary for Congress and a number of state and local offices. The researchers concluded that the mailers boosted turnout among the recipients by 2.4 percent.

Now, here's the kicker that's not being mentioned by the news media: I'm pretty sure that the only people listed on the flier are those who either signed the recall petitions, donated to Democratic causes, etc. On my street all of the people listed seem to be more of the liberal variety, and it * definitely* doesn't include the 2 or 3 houses where I know that there are conservatives living. It skips right over them when listing who voted (and more specifically who didn't). Based on the study listed above, it could increase the voter turnout of 2-2.5% just among Democrats...

Also, as a neighbor (who voted in '08 and not in '10) put it, "it shows how every single vote counts, and when people don't vote people that we're opposed to get elected". Probably 1/3rd of the people on my flier voted in '08 and didn't in '10. It just turned ~930,000 people (assuming it was only sent to recall signers) into canvassers for their neighborhood, allowing any of them to go door-to-door to ensure that their friends and neighbors get out and vote.

At the end of the day, it's all going to come down to turnout, particularly in Milwaukee.

Since polls show that very few undecided voters remain, Democrats are focusing on the roughly 800,000 Wisconsinites who voted in the 2008 presidential election but not in the 2010 gubernatorial election between Walker and Barrett. African-American neighborhoods in Milwaukee are a particular target because the dip in voter turnout between 2008 and 2010 there was especially drastic.

For instance, in Ward 175 on Milwaukee’s north side, Obama beat John McCain 442 to 3 in 2008. In 2010, Barrett beat Walker 244 to 1, a turnout drop of 45 percent. Statewide, voter turnout only dropped by 28 percent between the two elections.

Overall I think Milwaukee's voter participation was something around 38% in 2010. If that rises to ~50%, Walker's in big trouble.

 

[$tinkle]

The fact that you won't is quite telling, especially since the "odds" are now at an even 20-1.....

that *should* only tell you my interest in this is barely at heartbeat level. win/lose, my blood pressure won't change noticeably.

Overall I think Milwaukee's voter participation was something around 38% in 2010.

while i won't advocate for voting rights revocation, there must be some incentive to create something north of 70% turnout.

maybe 'before you bitch about anything, you must first demonstrate you participated in the previous election'. something like a voter captcha w/ a confirmation id?

 

[dante]

By the way, the right-wing wised up and removed it's tool to harass recall signatories until "after the election".

I guess they finally figured out that it'd be used more by left-wing get out the vote groups than right-wing harassers?

THIS TOOL IS OFFLINE UNTIL AFTER THE ELECTION
JUMP TO OTHER TOOLS

 

[stevew]

maybe 'before you bitch about anything, you must first demonstrate you participated in the previous election'.

i prefer branding.

 

[sanjuro]

It's time. Let's see if Walker gets his.

 

[$tinkle]

It's time. Let's see if Walker gets his.

what do you understand to be the changes in the employment rate & deficit under his watch?

if those are not the complete list of relevant items, kindly include what else should be factored.

 

[Pesqueeb]

what do you understand to be the changes in the employment rate & deficit under his watch?

Walker is riding the Obama Turnaround?

 

[dante]

what do you understand to be the changes in the employment rate & deficit under his watch?

if those are not the complete list of relevant items, kindly include what else should be factored.

I'd add:

Gutting the DNR
Crony hires
ALEC
Abstinence only sex ed
Mining environmental legislation written *by* the mining company
Cutting 1 billion from education while...
Cuttting corp taxes by $250m
But you're right, under published numbers WI led the nation in job losses last year, and has a higher structural debt than last year.

Hanging out in the Bar that the Ed show is broadcasting from (8pm est), so will write more later. Initial projections are an INSANELY high turnout...

 

[Pesqueeb]

INSANELY high turnout...

Jeebus.....

Madison City Clerk Maribeth Witzel-Behl told TPM that as of 4 p.m. Central Time, the city was at roughly 50 percent turnout — and that if typical turnout patterns were to pan out, in which turnout doubles after the workday, the city could reach 100 percent turnout.
http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/06/presidential-race-turnout-seen-in-wisconsin-recall.php?ref=fpa

 

[$tinkle]

119% turnout

 

[dante]

NBC called it for Walker, but ~94% of Milwaukee Co still left to report, along with 83% of Dane. I'll wait till the final numbers come in, but it's not looking good.

 

[$tinkle]

maddow said nbc called it 49 min after polls closed.

[mullet]dang[/mullet]

e: