[stoney]

I've been trading and investing in this stock since 2003. It's only drug is a novel treatment for cancer that teaches the body to fight cancer from within (highly simplified). The treatment will change how cancer is treated, moving away from Chemo, in which you almost kill the patient to kill the cancer. This treatment only leaves flu-like symptoms and gets more effective as time passes: It is the potential cure for cancer.

After being denied approval despite two positive clinical trials, Dendreon showed substantially positive results, well above and beyond the FDA's stated requirements for survivability. For those of you with family members suffering through Prostate cancer, there is a light at the end of the tunnel.

The company has stated that they intend to use this technology to target breast cancer, colon cancer, etc. This is a paradigm shift in cancer treatment.

Congrats to DNDN, congrats to the patients who have an option to survive, congrats to the long-term investors who have funded this company's life-saving treatment.

 

[stosh]

Nice!
FT(stock)W

 

[narlus]

The F.D.A. instead said it wanted more proof that the drug worked and would await results from a subsequent trial — the one whose results were briefly described Tuesday. Dendreon did not detail the actual results of the trial Tuesday, saying they would be presented at a urology meeting later this month.

stay tuned.

 

[jimmydean]

This is awesome news, I will share this with my family. My father was diagnosed in August with prostate cancer. He has had many positive treatments without chemo, this is something that would be even better.

 

[johnbryanpeters]

spam spam spam spam

 

[ridiculous]

wow thats huge!

genentech 2.0?

 

[stoney]

stay tuned.

That is from Jon Aschoff, Brean-Murphy analyst. He has been negative on the stock since day 1, and long it's peers (all of which failed miserably). He has also been heavily fined by the SEC for putting out false info, and impersonating a dr. to gather information on an ongoing clinical trail (TOTALLY illegal).

As for those with prostate cancer in the family, this is ~ 1yr away from availability. Not to get hopes up, and it has not been approved *yet*. That being said, during the call today, the CEO said that the data significantly cleared the FDA's requirements for approval, which were given in May 2007.

 

[stoney]

wow thats huge!

genentech 2.0?

Basically.


***THIS IS NOT A BUY RECOMMENDATION! THE SHIP HAS SAILED. I BROUGHT THIS UP OVER A YEAR AGO TO THOSE WILLING TO TAKE THE RISK. AGAIN, NOT A RECOMMENDATION.

 

[TN]

NOW you tell us.

 

[ultraNoob]

Hey... my friend works for Genentech, never really cared what they did. All I know is that they pay her well.

 

[stoney]

Hey... my friend works for Genentech, never really cared what they did. All I know is that they pay her well.

Um... this is not DNA. Different company; similar potential.

 

[Sherpa]

I hope you put on a trailing stop, or sold at that peak as the stock's down significantly.

 

[stoney]

I sold my cost basis much earlier today. I am long and will continue to accumulate into the 4/28 release of data. As with DNA's, this is a paradigm shift in treatment. Based on the spike, the short interest number, etc.. I would expect the price to trail until 4/28 when it will pop on release of data, likely to $25-28. After which point, we wait until the Euro Partner is announced. Depending on the deal, it will likely increase px by 20%+. There will be an issuance that should dillute 5-10%, as the co needs money to expand research into breast and colon cancer. I would expect a 10-15% pop in Q4 2009 as the co submits the BLA to the FDA. Then it becomes a waiting game for the FDA: they have 6 months to give final analysis. Given that the results are "unambiguious" when compared to the needs to get approval, I would expect approval. Upon approval I would expect $45-55/share. Once marketing/sales begin, the price should increase steadily upon earnings. When the co announces that they have started another phase 3 for breast cancer we can expect another pop.
In my estimates, if all goes well, DNDN should value around $85 (current dollars) within 2 years.

I have sold my cost, I am now on house money. I will buy on dips and sell on rises.

 

[Sherpa]

Damn, wish I had that stock on my radar. Would've bought in in late march when the 25 day SMA crossed the 50 day SMA

 

[ridiculous]

Hey... my friend works for Genentech, never really cared what they did. All I know is that they pay her well.

...As they should. Copied from google finance

"The few, the proud, the profitable" could be Genentech's motto. One of the world's most successful biotechs (in an industry full of money-losers), the firm has three billion-dollar blockbusters: Rituxan, which fights non-Hodgkin's lymphoma; Avastin, a treatment for colorectal, breast, and lung cancers; and Herceptin for breast cancer. Lung cancer drug Tarceva rounds out the company's oncology portfolio. Genentech's other marketed drugs include age-related macular degeneration treatment Lucentis, human growth hormone Nutropin, cystic fibrosis drug Pulmozyme, and asthma drug Xolair. Swiss drugmaker Roche, which previously owned a majority stake in the firm, took full ownership of Genentech in 2009.

 

[ridiculous]

uhhh what happened?

http://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ:DNDN
-45%

hope you got out!

 

[stoney]

Look at afterhours trading, it's at $27+. Welcome to the world of market manipulation. The data is 100% better than needed. FDA has given placebo recipients access to the treatment.
Someone (market maker, short hedge fund?) sold 3mm shares in 70 seconds, wiped out the stop losses, and accumulated 10mm shares at bottom barrel prices.
The SEC is investigating, from what I've heard.
My 1yr target is still $80/share.

http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=0&chdd=0&chds=0&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=1&chfdeh=true&chdet=1240977742113&chddm=963&q=NASDAQ:DNDN&ntsp=0

 

[stoney]

I hope some of you guys kept this. Provenge was approved today, with closing at $50/sh.

 

[CBJ]

Amazing development.

 

[narlus]

I hope some of you guys kept this. Provenge was approved today, with closing at $50/sh.

My 1yr target is still $80/share.

your target was off about 55%...

 

[stoney]

your target was off about 55%...

Given that the results are "unambiguious" when compared to the needs to get approval, I would expect approval. Upon approval I would expect $45-55/share. Once marketing/sales begin, the price should increase steadily upon earnings.

I was still right for a 100% move.

 

[drkenan]

Dendreon said Thursday the drug will cost $93,000 per patient.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jus9GD8OeH9qAc_QwFjAvVLIo5egD9FCVICO0

 

[stoney]

As compared to ~$120k / patient for a normal full course of chemo and secondary costs (hospital stays)

 

[stoney]

I'm re-setting my 12m tgt px to $80, with 2yr at $100. I will likely be buying Jan 2010 C80 in the next few days once it trades back in post-initial buy-in spike.

Mutual funds will begin buying in, as risk has been greatly reduced with approval.

 

[sstalder5]

I can't even pretend to understand the stock market...

 

[stoney]

I can't even pretend to understand the stock market...

What part about this are you lost on? PM me if you'd like to talk offline.

 

[narlus]

I was still right for a 100% move.

yeah, because they got approval. that's a crap shoot, anyway you look at it...the big move on the stock price was directly related to that.

trying to predict what therapies get approved, esp from a broker's perspective, is a total guess.

 

[stoney]

Yes, generally. However the results of the phase 3 trial were so above and beyond the FDA's own requirements for approval it was pretty much a guarantee. I'm not going to get into the numbers behind this, but the data has been good enough from early on to see that approval was very likely.

 

[jonKranked]

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jus9GD8OeH9qAc_QwFjAvVLIo5egD9FCVICO0

newsflash guys: you would all sh*t bricks if you knew how much it costs to develop cutting edge drugs / medical devices / procedures

 

[jonKranked]

Yes, generally. However the results of the phase 3 trial were so above and beyond the FDA's own requirements for approval it was pretty much a guarantee. I'm not going to get into the numbers behind this, but the data has been good enough from early on to see that approval was very likely.

I'd like to see the numbers.

 

[Toshi]

After being denied approval despite two positive clinical trials, Dendreon showed substantially positive results, well above and beyond the FDA's stated requirements for survivability. For those of you with family members suffering through Prostate cancer, there is a light at the end of the tunnel.

You're full of ****, at least as far as your characterization of the earlier (nonexistent) evidence of this new drug's efficacy.

http://www.nature.com/nrclinonc/journal/v4/n7/full/ncponc0854.html

I am normally very much in favor of patients having access to drugs that show promise, but are not yet approved by the FDA. So, what is the harm here of approving a fairly nontoxic vaccine like Provenge®? The harm is twofold. First, the promise of Provenge® does not derive from positive data in the two studies presented. It derives from the attractive concept of having a vaccine that will stimulate the patient's immune system. That is a dangerous precedent. There are actually other drugs in the pipeline that show more promise, at the moment, than Provenge®, in patients with advanced prostate cancer.

Like narlus I await the actual study results before passing final judgment.

 

[MMike]

Pffft....who you gonna believe here? The doctor or the financial speculator?

Pipe down Toshi......go play with your electric bike or something.

 

[Toshi]

I sold that electric bike! (to my parents in Wyoming, that is.) Only gasoline for me these days, sadly.

In any case, the scientifically-minded amongst you probably would be interested in the actual study results. See page 12 (section 14) of the FDA drug approval summary: http://www.fda.gov/downloads/BiologicsBloodVaccines/CellularGeneTherapyProducts/ApprovedProducts/UCM210031.pdf

Key figure:

Let me interpret this for the audience: there IS a statistically significant difference in median survival and survival at 3 years. There IS NOT a difference in survival at 5 years.

Is it worth it to pay $100,000/yr to achieve no survival benefit at 5 years? The stock market apparently thinks so. This kind of incremental, amazingly expensive improvement is why our health care is so expensive, and no one but a hyperbolic investor like Stoney would characterize this as "cancer losing."

 

[Westy]

I sold that electric bike! (to my parents in Wyoming, that is.) Only gasoline for me these days, sadly.

In any case, the scientifically-minded amongst you probably would be interested in the actual study results. See page 12 (section 14) of the FDA drug approval summary: http://www.fda.gov/downloads/BiologicsBloodVaccines/CellularGeneTherapyProducts/ApprovedProducts/UCM210031.pdf

Key figure:

Let me interpret this for the audience: there IS a statistically significant difference in mean survival and survival at 3 years. There IS NOT a difference in survival at 5 years.

Is it worth it to pay $100,000/yr to achieve no survival benefit at 5 years? The stock market apparently thinks so. This kind of incremental, amazingly expensive improvement is why our health care is so expensive, and no one but a hyperbolic investor like Stoney would characterize this as "cancer losing."

I'm just going to guess that the $100K/year for a short-term life extension comes with horribly painful side affects. And of course the stock market cares about the $100k/year and not the survival rates.

 

[MMike]

Key figure:


Let me interpret this for the audience: there IS a statistically significant difference in mean survival and survival at 3 years. There IS NOT a difference in survival at 5 years.

Is it worth it to pay $100,000/yr to achieve no survival benefit at 5 years? The stock market apparently thinks so. This kind of incremental, amazingly expensive improvement is why our health care is so expensive, and no one but a hyperbolic investor like Stoney would characterize this as "cancer losing."

So what your saying is the paradox...or conundrum....or whatever the correct word is here, is that financial shmoes that really don't understand what they are talking about, are gaining financially by manipulating data they don't understand?

You socialist red, commie pinko

 

[Toshi]

I'm just going to guess that the $100K/year for a short-term life extension comes with horribly painful side affects. And of course the stock market cares about the $100k/year and not the survival rates.

I fixed mean->median in the interpretation section, just for the record.

Actually, this drug should have less side effects than traditional chemo. It is a more elegant attack, I grant that. That's not to say that it's a wonder drug and works that great, of course.

 

[narlus]

i hope you sold in time:
http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2011/08/04/high-flying-dendreon-plummets-more-than-60-on-weak-provenge-sales/?mod=yahoobarrons

 

[jonKranked]

Let me interpret this for the audience: there IS a statistically significant difference in median survival and survival at 3 years. There IS NOT a difference in survival at 5 years.

allow me to point out that you can't make it to 5 years if you don't make it past 3 years.




also, lulz at narlus' post

 

[Toshi]

allow me to point out that you can't make it to 5 years if you don't make it past 3 years.

Survival curves (Kaplan-Meier, I believe) are for a population. It is relevant to consider cohort survival at 3 and then at 5 years assuming that not every last person in the group died by 3 years. Individuals will die, but the overall picture is what matters.

 

[stoney]

i hope you sold in time:
http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2011/08/04/high-flying-dendreon-plummets-more-than-60-on-weak-provenge-sales/?mod=yahoobarrons

I sold a long time ago at $50. It paid for my car, most of Wifey's car and a we still have ~$10k in savings from the remainder. I think I have about $2k left, but I'm not concerned. I have all the time in the world.