[LordOpie]

part of stagflation is rising unemployment (a dysphemism for a surplus on workers). so unemployment is rising from 4.8% to 5.2%, which alarmists would say "that's a jump of 10% in the unemployment rate!"
this is a far cry from being at economic threat-level midnight.

I know we all know that the disenfranchised are not counted in the unemployment numbers. Not new news.

However, I think the disenfranchised portion of unemployment was consistent through the back half of the 1900s.

I suggest that unemployment statistics are more flawed these days with an exponential change in the unemployed not counted and the under-employed.

I say the unemployment number is much lower than it normally is by a full percentage point.

 

[jimmydean]

I say the unemployment number is much lower than it normally is by a full percentage point.

I would actually be surprised if it was only a point. I know in Oregon, just counting the unemployed and leaving the under employed, it would be at least 2 more points.

 

[$tinkle]

I suggest that unemployment statistics are more flawed these days with an exponential change in the unemployed not counted and the under-employed.

well if we're going to start doing that, then howsa bout down-counting all those useless double- and triple-dipping gov't workers who do exactly jack-sprat for upper 5figs/yr + bennies?

 

[LordOpie]

well if we're going to start doing that, then howsa bout down-counting all those useless double- and triple-dipping gov't workers who do exactly jack-sprat for upper 5figs/yr + bennies?

How's that relate to unemployment?

 

[X3pilot]

Seriously, how many posting here were consumers in 1980/81? I'm not trying to be a smart ass, just establishing a point of reference. This economy is as bad as that was then, but will we pull out as quickly as we did then. Gas/oil was about the same price then, relative $$, but we didn't have the WTO back then and the markets were not "globalized" Smart people help me out here...

 

[LordOpie]

Seriously, how many posting here were consumers in 1980/81? I'm not trying to be a smart ass, just establishing a point of reference. This economy is as bad as that was then, but will we pull out as quickly as we did then. Gas/oil was about the same price then, relative $$, but we didn't have the WTO back then and the markets were not "globalized" Smart people help me out here...

The dollar has taken hits that it didn't back then.

Not saying the sky is falling, just saying it's different.

 

[$tinkle]

How's that relate to unemployment?

you stated the stats are flawed vis-a-vis over- -vs- under-employed

i think i broke my dash key on that post

 

[LordOpie]

you stated the stats are flawed vis-a-vis over- -vs- under-employed

i think i broke my dash key on that post

so being OVER-employed somehow balances that out?

 

[$tinkle]

so being OVER-employed somehow balances that out?

it holds as much validity. point is, if you were somehow greatly pleased with the numbers, why even bring it up? and if you're not going to bring it up unconditionally, then it shouldn't be considered.

i see it as cherry-picking, kind of like the **** H8R's pulling in his rep thread.

rttihvb'c

 

[jimmydean]

Seriously, how many posting here were consumers in 1980/81? I'm not trying to be a smart ass, just establishing a point of reference. This economy is as bad as that was then, but will we pull out as quickly as we did then. Gas/oil was about the same price then, relative $$, but we didn't have the WTO back then and the markets were not "globalized" Smart people help me out here...

I was 9 and I have to say, I made a lot less in 1980 than I made in the '01 slump. I feel much better now, thanks.

 

[LordOpie]

it holds as much validity. point is, if you were somehow greatly pleased with the numbers, why even bring it up? and if you're not going to bring it up unconditionally, then it shouldn't be considered.

No.

Under-employed implies that people aren't making enough to cover their standard expenses. Sorry I didn't clearly define that earlier.

Point is, people are accepting jobs that are beneath their typical pay scale because they don't want to be completely unemployed, for whatever reason.

 

[Westy]

The current economic problems are fairly specific to the housing and credit. It may spill over but right now it is the one sector. What pisses me off if by continuously reducing interest rates and driving inflation we are helping those that ****ed up to the cost of everyone.

 

[LordOpie]

The current economic problems are fairly specific to the housing and credit. It may spill over but right now it is the one sector. What pisses me off if by continuously reducing interest rates and driving inflation we are helping those that ****ed up to the cost of everyone.

True, but if those idiots weren't helped, you'd be hurt far worse, theoretically.

 

[$tinkle]

I was 9 and I have to say, I made a lot less in 1980 than I made in the '01 slump. I feel much better now, thanks.

my dad still has the bike i used on my paper route back then. and yeah, i make significantly more now than then. then, i could only afford to play Defender, Firepower, & Gorgar for an hour or two at the local headshop.

 

[jimmydean]

Point is, people are accepting jobs that are beneath their typical pay scale because they don't want to be completely unemployed, for whatever reason.

I drove a tow truck for $10 an hour + 25% commission after hours because unemployment paid $10 an hour and I was sick of daytime TV. After about 4 months, I was able to land a job in software again.

Had I not taken the tow job, my unemployment would have run out in a few months and I would have been screwed. So I consider the time I spent driving as underemployment because I could not have supported my family on what I was making for much longer.

I also learned some cool skills (winch recovery and stuff) and learned a new appreciation for my white collar job. But that was one of the hardest times in my life.

 

[$tinkle]

No.

Under-employed implies that people aren't making enough to cover their standard expenses. Sorry I didn't clearly define that earlier.

Point is, people are accepting jobs that are beneath their typical pay scale because they don't want to be completely unemployed, for whatever reason.

looks like some people shouldn't be rollin on dubs & using up all their minutes by the 3rd of each month.

these figures had best include personal responsibility, which as we've all seen, is in short supply. they can't pay their light bill but they have all the amenities of people 2 tax brackets higher??? double-ewe-tee-eff?

 

[Westy]

True, but if those idiots weren't helped, you'd be hurt far worse, theoretically.

I don't really buy that not to mention it doesn't make people think twice about being stupid next time.

 

[jimmydean]

The current economic problems are fairly specific to the housing and credit. It may spill over but right now it is the one sector. What pisses me off if by continuously reducing interest rates and driving inflation we are helping those that ****ed up to the cost of everyone.

Some of the people that are hurt are my wifes friend who owns a fencing company in Southern California. Because all the houses that are being built (or were being built) are unsold, his business has tanked. 2 years ago he couldn't keep up. Same goes for my nephew who owns a gutter company.

So housing has a lot of ripple beyond builders and realtors. But I do agree that the Fed can't save stupid people and many of us will suffer because of them.

 

[LordOpie]

I drove a tow truck for $10 an hour + 25% commission after hours because unemployment paid $10 an hour and I was sick of daytime TV. After about 4 months, I was able to land a job in software again.

I hear ya bro, you did the right thing. I worked at a CostCo in the bakery washing pots and pans for three months until I could finally find a job again. It was more money (not much) than being on unemployment.

 

[Westy]

Some of the people that are hurt are my wifes friend who owns a fencing company in Southern California. Because all the houses that are being built (or were being built) are unsold, his business has tanked. 2 years ago he couldn't keep up. Same goes for my nephew who owns a gutter company.

So housing has a lot of ripple beyond builders and realtors. But I do agree that the Fed can't save stupid people and many of us will suffer because of them.

Lumber and tooling companies will also hurt. But this is a market correction as much as anything. Anyone who benefitted from the boom should have been prepared for the crash. At least now I might be able to get someone other than a crackhead with a ladder to put a new roof on my house.

 

[dan-o]

At least now I might be able to get someone other than a crackhead with a ladder to put a new roof on my house.

"you" (ie. the consumer) always had that option, most just chose to use the crackhead and save $.

 

[Westy]

Not really. It became hard to find any real professionals over the past few years as they were too busy working on large developments.

 

[jimmydean]

Lumber and tooling companies will also hurt. But this is a market correction as much as anything. Anyone who benefitted from the boom should have been prepared for the crash. At least now I might be able to get someone other than a crackhead with a ladder to put a new roof on my house.

Agreed.

That's why next winter the wife and I are going house shopping. Low interest rate fixed mortgage on a nice McMansion foreclosure is in my future.