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Inflation Rate Worst in 17 years

LordOpie

MOTHER HEN
Oct 17, 2002
21,027
3
Denver
part of stagflation is rising unemployment (a dysphemism for a surplus on workers). so unemployment is rising from 4.8% to 5.2%, which alarmists would say "that's a jump of 10% in the unemployment rate!"
this is a far cry from being at economic threat-level midnight.
I know we all know that the disenfranchised are not counted in the unemployment numbers. Not new news.

However, I think the disenfranchised portion of unemployment was consistent through the back half of the 1900s.

I suggest that unemployment statistics are more flawed these days with an exponential change in the unemployed not counted and the under-employed.

I say the unemployment number is much lower than it normally is by a full percentage point.
 

jimmydean

The Official Meat of Ridemonkey
Sep 10, 2001
30,137
2,964
Portland, OR
I say the unemployment number is much lower than it normally is by a full percentage point.
I would actually be surprised if it was only a point. I know in Oregon, just counting the unemployed and leaving the under employed, it would be at least 2 more points.
 

$tinkle

Expert on blowing
Feb 12, 2003
14,591
5
I suggest that unemployment statistics are more flawed these days with an exponential change in the unemployed not counted and the under-employed.
well if we're going to start doing that, then howsa bout down-counting all those useless double- and triple-dipping gov't workers who do exactly jack-sprat for upper 5figs/yr + bennies?
 

X3pilot

Texans fan - LOL
Aug 13, 2007
5,861
1
SoMD
Seriously, how many posting here were consumers in 1980/81? I'm not trying to be a smart ass, just establishing a point of reference. This economy is as bad as that was then, but will we pull out as quickly as we did then. Gas/oil was about the same price then, relative $$, but we didn't have the WTO back then and the markets were not "globalized" Smart people help me out here...
 

LordOpie

MOTHER HEN
Oct 17, 2002
21,027
3
Denver
Seriously, how many posting here were consumers in 1980/81? I'm not trying to be a smart ass, just establishing a point of reference. This economy is as bad as that was then, but will we pull out as quickly as we did then. Gas/oil was about the same price then, relative $$, but we didn't have the WTO back then and the markets were not "globalized" Smart people help me out here...
The dollar has taken hits that it didn't back then.

Not saying the sky is falling, just saying it's different.
 

$tinkle

Expert on blowing
Feb 12, 2003
14,591
5
so being OVER-employed somehow balances that out?
it holds as much validity. point is, if you were somehow greatly pleased with the numbers, why even bring it up? and if you're not going to bring it up unconditionally, then it shouldn't be considered.

i see it as cherry-picking, kind of like the **** H8R's pulling in his rep thread.

rttihvb'c
 

jimmydean

The Official Meat of Ridemonkey
Sep 10, 2001
30,137
2,964
Portland, OR
Seriously, how many posting here were consumers in 1980/81? I'm not trying to be a smart ass, just establishing a point of reference. This economy is as bad as that was then, but will we pull out as quickly as we did then. Gas/oil was about the same price then, relative $$, but we didn't have the WTO back then and the markets were not "globalized" Smart people help me out here...
I was 9 and I have to say, I made a lot less in 1980 than I made in the '01 slump. I feel much better now, thanks.
 

LordOpie

MOTHER HEN
Oct 17, 2002
21,027
3
Denver
it holds as much validity. point is, if you were somehow greatly pleased with the numbers, why even bring it up? and if you're not going to bring it up unconditionally, then it shouldn't be considered.
No.

Under-employed implies that people aren't making enough to cover their standard expenses. Sorry I didn't clearly define that earlier.

Point is, people are accepting jobs that are beneath their typical pay scale because they don't want to be completely unemployed, for whatever reason.
 

Westy

the teste
Nov 22, 2002
37,057
3,933
Sleazattle
The current economic problems are fairly specific to the housing and credit. It may spill over but right now it is the one sector. What pisses me off if by continuously reducing interest rates and driving inflation we are helping those that ****ed up to the cost of everyone.
 

LordOpie

MOTHER HEN
Oct 17, 2002
21,027
3
Denver
The current economic problems are fairly specific to the housing and credit. It may spill over but right now it is the one sector. What pisses me off if by continuously reducing interest rates and driving inflation we are helping those that ****ed up to the cost of everyone.
True, but if those idiots weren't helped, you'd be hurt far worse, theoretically.
 

$tinkle

Expert on blowing
Feb 12, 2003
14,591
5
I was 9 and I have to say, I made a lot less in 1980 than I made in the '01 slump. I feel much better now, thanks.
my dad still has the bike i used on my paper route back then. and yeah, i make significantly more now than then. then, i could only afford to play Defender, Firepower, & Gorgar for an hour or two at the local headshop.
 

jimmydean

The Official Meat of Ridemonkey
Sep 10, 2001
30,137
2,964
Portland, OR
Point is, people are accepting jobs that are beneath their typical pay scale because they don't want to be completely unemployed, for whatever reason.
I drove a tow truck for $10 an hour + 25% commission after hours because unemployment paid $10 an hour and I was sick of daytime TV. After about 4 months, I was able to land a job in software again.

Had I not taken the tow job, my unemployment would have run out in a few months and I would have been screwed. So I consider the time I spent driving as underemployment because I could not have supported my family on what I was making for much longer.

I also learned some cool skills (winch recovery and stuff) and learned a new appreciation for my white collar job. But that was one of the hardest times in my life.
 

$tinkle

Expert on blowing
Feb 12, 2003
14,591
5
No.

Under-employed implies that people aren't making enough to cover their standard expenses. Sorry I didn't clearly define that earlier.

Point is, people are accepting jobs that are beneath their typical pay scale because they don't want to be completely unemployed, for whatever reason.
looks like some people shouldn't be rollin on dubs & using up all their minutes by the 3rd of each month.

these figures had best include personal responsibility, which as we've all seen, is in short supply. they can't pay their light bill but they have all the amenities of people 2 tax brackets higher??? double-ewe-tee-eff?
 

jimmydean

The Official Meat of Ridemonkey
Sep 10, 2001
30,137
2,964
Portland, OR
The current economic problems are fairly specific to the housing and credit. It may spill over but right now it is the one sector. What pisses me off if by continuously reducing interest rates and driving inflation we are helping those that ****ed up to the cost of everyone.
Some of the people that are hurt are my wifes friend who owns a fencing company in Southern California. Because all the houses that are being built (or were being built) are unsold, his business has tanked. 2 years ago he couldn't keep up. Same goes for my nephew who owns a gutter company.

So housing has a lot of ripple beyond builders and realtors. But I do agree that the Fed can't save stupid people and many of us will suffer because of them.
 

LordOpie

MOTHER HEN
Oct 17, 2002
21,027
3
Denver
I drove a tow truck for $10 an hour + 25% commission after hours because unemployment paid $10 an hour and I was sick of daytime TV. After about 4 months, I was able to land a job in software again.
I hear ya bro, you did the right thing. I worked at a CostCo in the bakery washing pots and pans for three months until I could finally find a job again. It was more money (not much) than being on unemployment.
 

Westy

the teste
Nov 22, 2002
37,057
3,933
Sleazattle
Some of the people that are hurt are my wifes friend who owns a fencing company in Southern California. Because all the houses that are being built (or were being built) are unsold, his business has tanked. 2 years ago he couldn't keep up. Same goes for my nephew who owns a gutter company.

So housing has a lot of ripple beyond builders and realtors. But I do agree that the Fed can't save stupid people and many of us will suffer because of them.
Lumber and tooling companies will also hurt. But this is a market correction as much as anything. Anyone who benefitted from the boom should have been prepared for the crash. At least now I might be able to get someone other than a crackhead with a ladder to put a new roof on my house.
 

dan-o

Turbo Monkey
Jun 30, 2004
5,503
1,673
At least now I might be able to get someone other than a crackhead with a ladder to put a new roof on my house.
"you" (ie. the consumer) always had that option, most just chose to use the crackhead and save $.
 

Westy

the teste
Nov 22, 2002
37,057
3,933
Sleazattle
Not really. It became hard to find any real professionals over the past few years as they were too busy working on large developments.
 

jimmydean

The Official Meat of Ridemonkey
Sep 10, 2001
30,137
2,964
Portland, OR
Lumber and tooling companies will also hurt. But this is a market correction as much as anything. Anyone who benefitted from the boom should have been prepared for the crash. At least now I might be able to get someone other than a crackhead with a ladder to put a new roof on my house.
Agreed.

That's why next winter the wife and I are going house shopping. Low interest rate fixed mortgage on a nice McMansion foreclosure is in my future.