[Changleen]

From a slightly more reliable source...

Voter opinion in the presidential race has seesawed dramatically in the first two weeks of September. Following a successful nominating convention, George W. Bush broke open a deadlocked contest and jumped out to a big lead over John Kerry. However, polling this past week finds that Bush's edge over his Democratic rival has eroded. Reflecting this new volatility in the race, the size of the swing vote has increased slightly since the summer, rather than contracting as it typically does as the election approaches.

The latest national survey of 1,972 registered voters by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted in two waves over a seven-day period, finds that the president's large margin of support in the initial period (Sept. 8-10) dissipated in the polling conducted Sept. 11-14. Among all registered voters Bush initially led Kerry by 52%-40%. However, the second wave of interviewing shows the race even among registered voters, at 46%-46%. When the sample is narrowed to likely voters, Bush holds a statistically insignificant lead of 47%-46% in the second wave, down from a huge 54%-38% advantage he held in the first wave of interviews.

Complete article here:

http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=224

Pretty interesting stuff. It's a good website all round actually.

 

[zod]

I heard on the radio this morning that one of the most accurate ways to look at a Presidential race is by checking out the betting odds. I don't know where to get this source from though.......it's gonna be from Europe or something because betting on the Presidency is illegal in the US.

Anybody have a betting odds source on the enterweb???

 

[N8 v2.0]

Changleeen, how much is the rent in your lil' fantasy world you live in..?




Bush Bounce Keeps On Going
President leads Kerry by 13 points among likely voters; 8 points among registered voters
The Gallup Poll | 17.Sep.04 | David W. Moore

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- In a new Gallup Poll, conducted Sept. 13-15, President George W. Bush leads Democratic candidate John Kerry by 55% to 42% among likely voters, and by 52% to 44% among registered voters. These figures represent a significant improvement for Bush since just before the beginning of the Republican National Convention.

In the immediate aftermath of that convention, a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll showed Bush receiving a modest bounce from his standing before the convention. Among likely voters, Bush's support was up two points and Kerry's was down two points. Among the larger sample of registered voters, Bush's support was up two points, while Kerry's was unchanged.

The bounce was small, whether measured among the likely or the registered voter groups, so that it was well within the margin of error of the post-convention poll. Given the sample sizes of the two groups, one could not say with 95% certainty that Bush's support had actually increased.

Now, in the new poll, the figures show Bush with a 13-point lead over Kerry among likely voters and an 8-point lead among registered voters. Both sets of figures represent significant increases in Bush's standing in the race since just before the beginning of the Republican convention in late August, when likely voters chose Bush over Kerry by a slight three-point margin (50% to 47%), and registered voters leaned toward Kerry by an even smaller margin of one point (48% to 47%).

Bush's job approval rating has not changed in the past week and a half, though it did increase from 49% before the Republican National Convention to 52% right after -- where it has remained.

Minor Candidates Barely Known by Public

After being asked whom they would vote for in a two-way ballot, poll respondents were asked a six-way ballot that included independent candidate Ralph Nader, Libertarian candidate Michael Badnarik, Green Party candidate David Cobb, and Constitution Party candidate Michael Peroutka. Those candidates should appear on the ballot in half the states or more.

Younger Voters Show Greatest Change in Past Three Weeks

The poll shows that among registered voters, people under age 50 are more likely to change their minds than people in the 50 to 64 age group, and those 65 and older. Kerry had a one-point advantage (48% to 47%) among 18- to 49-year-old voters just before the Republican National Convention, but now Bush enjoys a 13-point lead among this group (54% to 41%). This represents a net increase in Bush's standing of 14 percentage points.

two age groups show much smaller changes. Among the middle age group (50 to 64), Kerry gains slightly. Now Bush leads Kerry in this group by 50% to 49%, while he led by 51% to 44% three weeks ago.

In the oldest age group (65+), Bush trailed Kerry by five points three weeks ago (50% to Kerry to 45% for Bush), but now Bush has a one-point advantage (48% to 47%).

Bush gained about equally among men (his lead is up nine points) and women (up eight points). Three weeks ago, Bush had a 6-point advantage among men (51% to 45%), while today that advantage is 15 points (56% to 41%). Similarly, Bush trailed Kerry by seven points among women three weeks ago (51% for Kerry to 44% for Bush), but Bush is up by one point now (49% to 48%

Check out the link for all the stat's: http://www.gallup.com/poll/content/default.aspx?ci=13066

 

[N8 v2.0]

I heard on the radio this morning that one of the most accurate ways to look at a Presidential race is by checking out the betting odds. I don't know where to get this source from though.......it's gonna be from Europe or something because betting on the Presidency is illegal in the US.

Anybody have a betting odds source on the enterweb???

IEM* tends to lead other polls:

*Iowa electronic markets: http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/markets/Pres04_WTA.html

 

[N8 v2.0]

From a slightly more reliable source...


Pretty interesting stuff. It's a good website all round actually.

You mean the more reliable Pew Research Center, funded by Teresa Heinz and Geo. Sorros...

 

[Jr_Bullit]

I found a couple others as well, this first one resembles the type of odds I see at the horse races the few times I went:
http://www.oddschecker.com/oddschecker/mode/o/card/cc8859x/odds/243698x/sid/377975

An Australian Betting site:
https://secure.centrebet.com/index.php?MODE=test&uniq=ct9961414ae4c408277&compList[0]=59900

UK Site (Uses the same as the first link):
http://www.mybetting.co.uk/2004-us-presidential-elections.htm

 

[Jr_Bullit]

More - not stats, but an article on how much $$$ has been spent, where, and when you can use these sorts of bets as a more true barometer of results:
http://www.onlinecasinonews.com/ocnv2_1/article/article.asp?id=6176

 

[N8 v2.0]

*Iowa electronic markets: http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/markets/Pres04_WTA.html

 

[N8 v2.0]

Oh man, this has to just kill Dan Rather's soul...

CBS Poll: Bush leads Kerry by 9 points

 

[Changleen]

Ohh, Shocker:

Polls Differ on Who Leads US Presidential Race

New public opinion polls are painting a contradictory picture of the U.S. presidential race, even as Democrat John Kerry tries to sharpen his policy differences with President Bush.
There was good news for the Bush campaign in the latest Gallup poll, which gave the president a lead of 54 to 40 percent over Senator Kerry. However, two other recent polls, one by the Harris polling firm and another by the Pew Research Center, found the race had slipped back to a dead heat between the two candidates.

http://www.voanews.com/article.cfm?objectID=CBC9F14C-3959-4CF8-970DA662438E7F39&title=Polls Differ on Who Leads US Presidential Race

Let's face it, it's consistently been pretty close - it probably still is. The 'large gap suddenly developing' phenomena is probabaly just republican phsychological preparation for the 'unexpected last minute swing' to Bush when the DieBold machines kick in.

 

[nicklin]

N8: "Changleeen, how much is the rent in your lil' fantasy world you live in..?"


Not much, he lives in New Zealand, so it can't be that much. Didn't you know that New Zealanders are quite the world political analyst now a days, ever since their monstrous sheep farming boom.......

 

[genpowell71]

Hey, stop talking about his relatives like that!!!

 

[golgiaparatus]

None of it matters. The debates will be the final decider. When Kerry asks GW... why are you such a lying fuhk, and George cant answer, it will be all over.

 

[genpowell71]

I think dubya's answer will be something along the lines of "People in glass houses shouldnt throw stones. And get off the fence Mr Kerry!!!!"

 

[Changleen]

N8: "Changleeen, how much is the rent in your lil' fantasy world you live in..?"


Not much, he lives in New Zealand, so it can't be that much. Didn't you know that New Zealanders are quite the world political analyst now a days, ever since their monstrous sheep farming boom.......

Dude, you are SOO well informed its scaring me.

Since your best contribution so far has been weak, misplaced racism, why don't you take your sorry black t-shirt greasy metaller ass and fvck off until you have something worthwhile to say?