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Lets Discuss a Government Shutdown

Pesqueeb

bicycle in airplane hangar
Feb 2, 2007
28,252
4,184
Riding the baggage carousel.
Or even more interestingly, failure to raise the debt ceiling. :tinfoil:

In Nov 95 I would have been 17. I don't recall much of what went on then, I was much too busy trying to get laid/river rafting. Was it really that big of a deal? My old man worked for the Park Service and I don't remember him spending any time at home, which is odd cause access for the public to the park (Sequoia/Kings Canyon) would have been shut off. Are there any "real" ramifications to a government shutdown? Separately, are legislators really going to let the US default on its sovereign debt?:tinfoil::panic:
 
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stoney

Part of the unwashed, middle-American horde
Jul 26, 2006
14,416
1,510
Colorado
Don't raise the debt limit, stop spending money. It's a simple concept.
You don't dig yourself out of debt by spending.
 

jonKranked

Press Button, Receive Stupid
Nov 10, 2005
56,830
5,400
media blackout
Don't raise the debt limit, stop spending money. It's a simple concept.
You don't dig yourself out of debt by spending.
they need to audit the defense department/pentagon. I'd be willing to bet they could cut costs by upwards of 40% just by finding efficiencies.
 

BurlyShirley

Rex Grossman Will Rise Again
Jul 4, 2002
19,183
1
TN
Longterm there will be no serious impact. It's just a bunch of political posturing.
 

BurlyShirley

Rex Grossman Will Rise Again
Jul 4, 2002
19,183
1
TN
Don't raise the debt limit, stop spending money. It's a simple concept.
You don't dig yourself out of debt by spending.
Maybe you do if you're spending to build infrastructure that will give the economy a kickstart or a leg up. Not that I've seen a viable plan for that, but think about how effective building the interstates was for the economy. Perhaps green power?

Anyway, Im with you on not raising the debt ceiling unless there's rock solid plan.
 

jonKranked

Press Button, Receive Stupid
Nov 10, 2005
56,830
5,400
media blackout
Maybe you do if you're spending to build infrastructure that will give the economy a kickstart or a leg up. Not that I've seen a viable plan for that, but think about how effective building the interstates was for the economy. Perhaps green power?

Anyway, Im with you on not raising the debt ceiling unless there's rock solid plan.
or maybe make some initiatives to encourage companies to bring manufacturing back domestically...
 

stevew

unique white person
Sep 21, 2001
31,815
2,718
republicans trying go big dick with with a black man....bringing the lulz....
 

Jim Mac

MAKE ENDURO GREAT AGAIN
May 21, 2004
6,364
281
the middle east of NY
This shutdown = total political theater. It's over nothing (much).

This shutdown was way more serious:


What I am more interested in is that Ryan's budget ideas - pretty radical, for better or worse, and it's being obscured by 'bad tan' Boeher & Bitch McConnel's posturing.
 

Westy

the teste
Nov 22, 2002
36,652
3,475
Sleazattle
Back in '95 I had a job offer from the Department of the Navy withdrawn because of the shutdown. If I had waited I could have gotten the position but I had bills to pay. The job I ended up taking paid a hell of a lot more but probably led me down a less desirable career path.
 

sanjuro

Tube Smuggler
Sep 13, 2004
17,412
0
SF
Don't raise the debt limit, stop spending money. It's a simple concept.
You don't dig yourself out of debt by spending.
There are three ways to reduce the debt:

1. Cut spending
2. Raise taxes
3. Spur the economy

The first two do not necessarily make number 3 happen, the best solution of them all.
 

BurlyShirley

Rex Grossman Will Rise Again
Jul 4, 2002
19,183
1
TN
Back in '95 I had a job offer from the Department of the Navy withdrawn because of the shutdown. If I had waited I could have gotten the position but I had bills to pay. The job I ended up taking paid a hell of a lot more but probably led me down a less desirable career path.
Attaching "lazers" and mines to dolphins does sound pretty desirable.
 

MikeD

Leader and Demogogue of the Ridemonkey Satinists
Oct 26, 2001
10,095
112
chez moi
All I know is that if I dont get paid, I will be posting a few slightly used F22s in the RM Classified section..
What model year? The 2010s were flexy until the aftermarket CNC vectored-thrust swingarm made in Vancouver came out.
 

stoney

Part of the unwashed, middle-American horde
Jul 26, 2006
14,416
1,510
Colorado
That's cute. You never got back to me on how / what we were actually going to cut to balance the budget...
Yeah I did, it's somewhere in PAWN. The big items were as follows:
- cut defense spending by 50%
- eliminate SS for those not currently in the work market (born before 1995)
- cut life-time pensions/healthcare for Congress (this is more of a we sacrifice, you sacrifice)
- reduce govt spending by 5% YoY, not adjusting for inflation (ie cuts with NO inflation adjustment +/-)
- walk away from Afghanistan, Iraq, and now Libya
- Cut the TSA, use military at airports instead
- Move the military to the US borders to prevent illegal crossings and the future costs of those actions.

That alone should make drastic cuts to future spending, while removing a front end overhead. Also, it's not about balancing the budget. It's about eliminating deficit spending and reducing our outstanding debt.
 

dante

Unabomber
Feb 13, 2004
8,815
8
looking for classic NE singletrack
Yeah I did, it's somewhere in PAWN. The big items were as follows:
- cut defense spending by 50%
- eliminate SS for those not currently in the work market (born before 1995)
- cut life-time pensions/healthcare for Congress (this is more of a we sacrifice, you sacrifice)
- reduce govt spending by 5% YoY, not adjusting for inflation (ie cuts with NO inflation adjustment +/-)
- walk away from Afghanistan, Iraq, and now Libya
- Cut the TSA, use military at airports instead
- Move the military to the US borders to prevent illegal crossings and the future costs of those actions.

That alone should make drastic cuts to future spending, while removing a front end overhead. Also, it's not about balancing the budget. It's about eliminating deficit spending and reducing our outstanding debt.
(Searched for that post, couldn't find it)

If you eliminate deficit spending so you can reduce our outstanding debt, you will have to balance the budget first...

As for your ideas, everything but SS might get us 1/4 of the way to our 1.6T deficit. I have no idea what you're talking about by "eliminating SS for those not currently in the work market (born before 1995)". Are you claiming to get rid of SS for everyone that's retired? That's colder than I would have expected from you...

Otherwise, good luck starting The American Revolution 2.0. The French might even have a couple guillotine they can let us borrow as the poor and middle class storm the upper class neighborhoods.
 

stoney

Part of the unwashed, middle-American horde
Jul 26, 2006
14,416
1,510
Colorado
Eliminate it for those who have not entered the work force. Take nothing from those who are paid in.
And balancing the budget won't help. It's pretty simple, balancing an ever increasing budget (it increases 3% YoY iirc), will not help. Spending needs to be cut to the extent that our outflows are less than our inflows.
As for revolution, what do you think is going to happen when the dollar collapses? Every country in history with a currency that has collapsed ended in either a tyrant or revolution. You make the call.
 

dante

Unabomber
Feb 13, 2004
8,815
8
looking for classic NE singletrack
I'll tell you what, we're far more likely to have a revolution from slashing benefits than our currency "collapsing". By "collapsing" I'm assuming that you're talking about a real collapse, in the Weimar or Zimbabwe sense of thousands of percent per year, right? Not the 2% we have now, or even the 15% in the late 70s. Japan has a national debt that's 3x ours as a percentage of GDP, and their currency is 40% stronger now than it was 5 years ago.

Oh, and your plan to kick people off of SS who never worked would save us....... almost nothing. According to SS, you HAVE to have worked 10 years (40 credits) before you can start collecting, unless you were born before 1929. So yes, there are a few people out there who are old enough that are probably collecting SS after never working, but that's going to save us almost nothing.

The only other possibility is spousal benefits or SSDI, and if you're talking about cutting those then you *are* pretty cold-hearted.

Again, why are you dancing around the edges only cutting things that YOU want to cut. You're 30(ish). Of course you want to kick old people off of SS, because you're not old. You don't want to consider raising taxes because you make more than the median income in this country. You don't want to take care of the less fortunate because you are in the "more fortunate" camp. SS, Medicare, Medicaid, food stamps, etc are all social safety net programs. They are set up so that the poorest, oldest and weakest members of our community don't (hopefully) die homeless on a street corner somewhere.

They are also set up so that the poor have a base level of economic support so that we DON'T have another revolution in this country. Economic collapse primarily leads to upheaval when there is a massive disparity in income. It's not when everyone's suffering, it's when everyone but the top 2% are suffering. THAT is when the barricades go up and people get out the guillotines....
 

stoney

Part of the unwashed, middle-American horde
Jul 26, 2006
14,416
1,510
Colorado
tax the ultra wealthy.
I agree with this. I've been looking at some of the capital extradition methods available through tax loopholes, and you need a VERY skilled lawyer to make it happen. However, you can move millions+ off shore with minimal taxation.

The ultra wealthy need to be taxed at a higher rate, I do not disagree. I also believe that there should be some accountability between what C-Levels are paid vs their avg employee. Jack Welsh was paid 1.5mm at his peak when CEO of GM. How much does Immelt make?
 

Pesqueeb

bicycle in airplane hangar
Feb 2, 2007
28,252
4,184
Riding the baggage carousel.
As for revolution, what do you think is going to happen when the dollar collapses? Every country in history with a currency that has collapsed ended in either a tyrant or revolution. You make the call.
This goes back to my second question that nobody seems to have addressed yet. What happens when/if during a government shutdown we bounce against the debt ceiling. Isn't there a real possibility of a collapse of the dollar?
 

stoney

Part of the unwashed, middle-American horde
Jul 26, 2006
14,416
1,510
Colorado
This goes back to my second question that nobody seems to have addressed yet. What happens when/if during a government shutdown we bounce against the debt ceiling. Isn't there a real possibility of a collapse of the dollar?
Not sure, but it surely can't be good.
 

JohnE

filthy rascist
May 13, 2005
12,647
664
Front Range, dude...
What model year? The 2010s were flexy until the aftermarket CNC vectored-thrust swingarm made in Vancouver came out.
Check back in a couple days...I will get some tail numbers. Gotta check w/ my suppliers.

(JUST KIDDING IN CASE BIG BROTHER IS WATCHING...)

(Sort of.)
 

dante

Unabomber
Feb 13, 2004
8,815
8
looking for classic NE singletrack
You realize it's economically impossible for the US to "pull a Greece", right? We have control over our own currency and can unilaterally set interest rates/monetary policy, Greece doesn't.

Again, look at Japan. It has the highest Debt/GDP ratio in the entire world. It's Debt/GDP ratio is higher even than Zimbabwe. And yet, the Yen has strengthened from ~133 y/usd (from when I first started spec'ing Shimano parts in 2004) to below 80 y/usd now. Running up debt doesn't debase a currency, that's based on the debt-buyer's perception of the ability to pay it back. I might not lend a homeless guy $1 because I know I'd never get it back, but I might lend a hundred bucks to a businessman to keep his company running...