[dante]

Iowa caucus results about to start coming in. What's everyone's guess? Rowdy Romney? Seeping Santorum? Ron "Paultard" Paul?

 

[dante]

My guess:

Santorum - 1st
Ron Paul - 2nd
Romney - 3rd

It ends up being a heartbreaking 3rd place finish for Romney who never really recovers. His NH poll numbers start dropping tomorrow, and even though he might win there, it won't be anywhere near the 40+ lead he's got now...

 

[kidwoo]

My guess:

Santorum - 1st
Ron Paul - 2nd
Romney - 3rd

It ends up being a heartbreaking 3rd place finish for Romney who never really recovers. His NH poll numbers start dropping tomorrow, and even though he might win there, it won't be anywhere near the 40+ lead he's got now...

No way.

It's romney's turn. He'll get it.

 

[Pesqueeb]

"Santorum"

Part of me is actually pulling for Romney, just so I can start spreading e-mails about Mormon terrorism. And where is Romney's full form Birth Certificate anyway?

 

[Transcend]

Fingers crossed for the Paul-tard. Can't wait to hear the soundbytes.

 

[dante]

Interesting "entry-polling" stats: 13% of the caucus-goers are under 30, and 58% of them support Ron Paul. Over 65 is 32% (?) of caucus-goers, and Romney is their #1 choice with 28%...

Also a note (watching MSNBC) that evangelicals are turning out in the same numbers as in '08, where Huckabee won (and then proceeded to drop off the face of the earth).

 

[eric strt6]

the winner will be some Repubtard that has a snowballs chance in hell of becoming the POTUS

 

[Silver]

I'm cheering for the homophobic racist, myself.

 

[kidwoo]

I'm cheering for the homophobic racist, myself.

But which one? Which one!!!!!!?


Sounds like dante's calls are spot on with 2% in. Holy shlt people are stupid.

 

[dante]

It's now up to 3% in...

Santorum: 26.2%
Paul: 22.9%
Romney: 18%

I've got a writing gig at FrumForum riding on the results..... (not really)

 

[Silver]

But which one? Which one!!!!!!?

Heads I win, tails you lose.

 

[dante]

Ron Paul 3,821 24.1%
Mitt Romney 3,650 23.0%
Rick Santorum 3,636 22.9%
Newt Gingrich 2,058 13.0%
Rick Perry 1,571 9.9%
Michele Bachmann978 6.2%
Jon Huntsman 106 0.7%
Others 48 0.3%

15.9% of precincts reporting

Two thoughts:

1) Looks like Mitt still can't break that ~23% barrier, whether in Iowa or nationwide.
2) Gingrich and Perry are still doing better than I would have thought... I honestly thought that they were going to break harder for Santorum.

Entrance polling from MSNBC - Evangelicals went:

1 - Santorum 30%
2 - Paul 24%
3 - Gingrich 14%
4 - Romney 13%

That means they f**king hate Romney, to the point that they're still voting for both the batsh!t crazy guy and the serial adulterer over the Mormon.

 

[Jim Mac]

3 way tie (for last) thus far!

at 10:00 pm - approx. 23% ea for Rombot, Saintforeskin and 'Mein Kampf' Paul.

 

[X3pilot]

Who the fvck decided that Iowa was important enough for this?

Can they all lose?

 

[Silver]

That means they f**king hate Romney, to the point that they're still voting for both the batsh!t crazy guy and the serial adulterer over the Mormon.

Paul isn't bat**** crazy, he's just a normal Christian fundamentalist.

 

[kidwoo]

Who the fvck decided that Iowa was important enough for this?

Can they all lose?

"As goes Iowa, so goes something else sometimes but certainly not always"


Can't argue with statistics man.

I have no idea other than bored news people.

 

[dante]

Who the fvck decided that Iowa was important enough for this?

Can they all lose?

I thought that they already had.... They are running for the Republican nomination, right?

 

[X3pilot]

I'm telling you. I'm probably one of 2 or 3 somewhat sane conservative-ish people that post on the forum, and I'm sure as fvck not voting for any of these idiots.

 

[dante]

Paul isn't bat**** crazy, he's just a normal Christian fundamentalist.

Paul *is* batsh!t crazy. Santorum is the normal, Christian fundamentalist.

In his Senate office, on a shelf next to an autographed baseball, Sen. Rick Santorum keeps a framed photo of his son Gabriel Michael, the fourth of his seven children. Named for two archangels, Gabriel Michael was born prematurely, at 20 weeks, on Oct. 11, 1996, and lived two hours outside the womb.

Upon their son's death, Rick and Karen Santorum opted not to bring his body to a funeral home. Instead, they bundled him in a blanket and drove him to Karen's parents' home in Pittsburgh. There, they spent several hours kissing and cuddling Gabriel with his three siblings, ages 6, 4 and 1 1/2. They took photos, sang lullabies in his ear and held a private Mass.

 

[Transcend]

I'm telling you. I'm probably one of 2 or 3 somewhat sane conservative-ish people that post on the forum, and I'm sure as fvck not voting for any of these idiots.

This is why the current Republican party no longer stands a chance with anyone with 2 brain cells to rub together. It's turned into a bloody sideshow, reality TV at its finest. Professional politicians these morons are not.

 

[dante]

Damn, they're calling Ron Paul for 3rd place. That blows my bracket out of the water....

Now the question is, with 88% in and Santorum/Romney tied with 25% each, does Romney play out the tiniest win as "aha, a win's a win, on to NH", or is the main story going to be "Romney can't get more than 25% even when people start voting..."

My guess is that people are already trying to spin this to suit their candidate.

 

[kidwoo]

http://core.talkingpointsmemo.com/election/results/iowa-caucuses-r


Herman cain got 57 votes

 

[dante]

Even funnier, Buddy Roehmer got 47? Does he have family there or something?

 

[?????]

pfft... if tonight is any real indicator of the GOP nominee I'll be voting for Obama.

 

[dante]

Difference is now 5 votes between Santorum and Romney... out of 121,000 cast.

 

[?????]

Difference is now 5 votes between Santorum and Romney... out of 121,000 cast.

Despite not liking Santorum or Romney, I'm glad to see such a tight race. It reinforces the idea that everyone's vote counts.

 

[Pesqueeb]

Goodbye crazy cat lady. Kind of too bad really, I feel like her batsh*t potential had barley been tapped. Alas, what LULZ we could have had.

Republican presidential hopeful Michele Bachmann has suspended her campaign for the White House.
After a dismal, sixth place finish in Tuesday night's Iowa caucuses, the Minnesota congresswoman canceled a campaign trip to South Carolina and scheduled a news conference for Wednesday.
Even before the official announcement, reports surfaced of her plans. The National Journal quoted a senior Republican official who said the candidate realized "there was no viable way forward."
Bachmann, 55, had told a small group of supporters Tuesday night that she was staying in the presidential race — as the only true conservative who can defeat President Barack Obama. But her campaign was known to be low on money.
She peaked early with a first place finish in the Iowa GOP's summer straw poll, but by mid- to late September polling showed Bachmann in single digits. She focused her campaign efforts on Iowa, where she grew up.
This campaign suspension leaves her supporters up for grabs as Rick Santorum tries toestablish himself as the conservative heavyweight in the Republican race. Santorum's near-tie with caucus winner Mitt Romney topped a risefrom deep in the polls to contender for the presidential nomination.
http://nbcpolitics.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/01/04/9946872-after-dismal-iowa-showing-bachmann-suspends-campaign

 

[dante]

Despite not liking Santorum or Romney, I'm glad to see such a tight race. It reinforces the idea that everyone's vote counts.

Totally agree. **Eight** people separated Romney from Santorum. If 9 more people had showed up for Santorum (a couple families), there'd be a different winner of Iowa. Shows that everyone needs to get out and vote.

A couple thoughts on last night:

1) Turnout sucked. There was the same turnout as '08, back when the Republican party was supposedly demoralized, *and* as many as 12,000 Democrats/Independents showed up (presumably to back Ron Paul). That would mean that fewer Republicans actually decided to turn out than in '08...

2) Bachmann (6%) just dropped out of the race. Perry's (10%) about to. Either or both of those numbers added on to someone like Santorum and we'd have a *very* different storyline today, something along the lines of "Romney distant second in Iowa for 2nd caucus in a row".

3) Even though the pro-Romney people are trying to spin it as a victory for their candidate, getting the exact same % of voters as you got 4 years ago (fewer actual votes, I think) can not be good for him... Paul Begala tweeted the following:

In '08 Romney got 30,021 votes. Last night he got 30,015. Mitt & his SuperPAC spent $4 mill to lose 6 votes.

4) The fact that Gingrich got SCREWED by a SuperPAC benefiting from Citizens United is *awesome*. You want unlimited corporate cash in elections, be prepared to reap the whirlwind.

Anyway, a fun night of drinking and watching Clusterf*&k to the White House. Can't want to see what happens next.

 

[kidwoo]

I just caught bachman's speech.

She pronounced poignant "poyg nint"

 

[dante]

If you can find Perry's speech, it's even better. It's seriously like a really, really bad first-man speech at a wedding.


edit:

 

[eric strt6]

Well, now Bachman can return to doing what she does best.

 

[Silver]

I just caught bachman's speech.

She pronounced poignant "poyg nint"

How would that faggy French speaker in the magic underwear pronounce it? Not like Bachmann, a true American patriot, and hardcore (Jesus totally gets to put it in her asshole) Christ-lover, I'm sure.

 

[?????]

Well, now Bachman can return to doing what she does best.

Not if Marcus has any say in it.

 

[IH8Rice]

Totally agree. **Eight** people separated Romney from Santorum. If 9 more people had showed up for Santorum (a couple families), there'd be a different winner of Iowa.

really??

 

[dante]

really??

You're totally right, it's Iowa. So it *one* more family had showed up for Santorum........

Mitt Romney 30,015 24.6%
Rick Santorum 30,007 24.5%

 

[jimmydean]

more family had showed up for Santorum........

That's what this country needs, more family Santorum.

<edit>
Don't google that at work.

 

[dante]

Figured I'd put this here, as opposed to starting a brand-new thread on other primaries...


Turnout in the Florida GOP primary was down by 300,000 voters (15%) from 2008, and of the people who bothered to vote, 38% wish that they had another choice...

As has been noted in other contests, turnout was either down or the same as 2008 but also had a decent number of independents and Democrats crossing over to vote in the GOP primary. Since Florida had a closed primary, it was the first chance to see how enthusiastic the Republicans are about voting and the answer is...... not at all. Obama won FL by a margin of only 240,000 votes back in '08, and I can't imagine that the loss of 300k primary voters signals anything other than the fact that the GOP is in for a very, very tough fight in November.

Maybe Americans aren't so dumb after all?

 

[Pesqueeb]

Maybe Americans aren't so dumb after all?

 

[jimmydean]

Was "Ham Sandwich" not a write in vote?

 

[dante]

Looks like turnout in NV was down by ~25%, with Romney getting fewer votes (and a lower percentage of the total) than he did in 2008. Next up is Colorado, but since it's a closed caucus I'm guessing that only $tinkle will be attending? Unless you got that change-of-party notification in in time, Pesqueeb...