[ALEXIS_DH]

Perhaps they are right. We seem to be given the conclusion that democracy is the solution to many problems, that it is inherently the best form of government. Yet there is no reason to suppose that this must be the case. There are certainly good arguments for thinking that it is superior in some respects, but it also appears to be worse in others.

From what I can read Venezuela could be a lot worse off than they are under Chavez.

you could always be worse.
thing is, oil (over half the gvmt income) prices as of today have been unseen for quite a while. since chavez got in, venezuela´s $ income in oil due to the price hikes is in the 12 digits so far. you can hardly mess up something when you have 12 digits more money than you used to. (venezuela gdp is only $153 bill a year).

then, the significant economic growth in venezuela today has a lot to do with the fact that the economy was contracting at near double digit rates earlier in the decade.

then there is the issue of sustainability, private capital flow (even with chavez exchange control), and government intervention in markets, with all the tricky implication that means for long tem employment growth, savings, inflation and so on.
the economy is turning into a very oil-price dependant economy. even more than before.

support of politicians is kinda funny in south america as well.
the places where fujimori support was at its highest (by far) were the same places where the people suffered the most from his anti-terrorism tactics involved extreme violence the army killing peasants alike. but they also were the primary recipients of his social spending and aid.
similar thing Humala, the army guy who almost won the last election. his strongholds were the places like where he was accused of human right violations, or coincidentally places where the army hit the hardest agains civilians.
again, people are willing to accept iron fists, and oversee things, dead people included, if that means any sort of stability as fragile as it may be.

 

[fluff]

you could always be worse.
thing is, oil (over half the gvmt income) prices as of today have been unseen for quite a while. since chavez got in, venezuela´s $ income in oil due to the price hikes is in the 12 digits so far. you can hardly mess up something when you have 12 digits more money than you used to. (venezuela gdp is only $153 bill a year).

then, the significant economic growth in venezuela today has a lot to do with the fact that the economy was contracting at near double digit rates earlier in the decade.

then there is the issue of sustainability, private capital flow (even with chavez exchange control), and government intervention in markets, with all the tricky implication that means for long tem employment growth, savings, inflation and so on.
the economy is turning into a very oil-price dependant economy. even more than before.

In light of the views expressed above how do you explain the fact that Venezuela's economy has vastly out-performed world bank/imf predictions?

 

[Silver]

In light of the views expressed above how do you explain the fact that Venezuela's economy has vastly out-performed world bank/imf predictions?

You have a link to those predictions, and the assumptions made in those predictions about world oil prices?

That's the first thing I'd look at...

 

[fluff]

You have a link to those predictions, and the assumptions made in those predictions about world oil prices?

That's the first thing I'd look at...

Here's a start:

http://www.venezuelanalysis.com/news.php?newsno=2269

Someone else will have to do the leg work, I'm up to my eyes in badly planned, urgent projects.