[N8 v2.0]

Looks like the post nomination bump has faded a little for obama

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108376/Gallup-Daily-Obama-McCain-Tied-45.aspx

PRINCETON, NJ -- The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update on the presidential election finds John McCain and Barack Obama exactly tied at 45% among registered voters nationwide.

Voter preferences had been fairly evenly divided for the past week, with Obama generally holding a slight advantage of two or three percentage points. This is the first time since Gallup's May 31-June 4 rolling average that Obama does not have at least a slim advantage over McCain. Obama's largest lead to date has been seven points.

 

[Westy]

Aren't there already a few hundred threads on this already?

 

[Samirol]

Aren't there already a few hundred threads on this already?

he has to distract us from his beatdown in the McCain thread

 

[jimmydean]

Here ya go n8:

Independent Voters in the General Election

Conventional wisdom holds that self-identified independent voters are the ones who can make the difference in a general election. With close to 90 percent of each party's identifiers supporting their party's nominee in presidential elections, independents become the understandable focus. They are a substantial proportion of the general electorate, and a closely divided group nationally. They made up 22 percent of the electorate in both 2000 and 2004, and they split nearly evenly in their vote preference - 50 percent chose Kerry and 47 percent chose Bush in '04, and they voted 48 percent for Bush and 45 percent for Gore in '00.

Both Obama and McCain have demonstrated popularity among independent voters this primary season. Among all primary states, Obama has won 54 percent of the Democratic primary vote from independents compared to his 48 percent support overall. Across the Republican primary states McCain edged out his opponents on the independent vote, having received 46 percent of the independent vote in the Republican primaries, compared to his 42 percent support overall.

Similarly, there is only a marginal difference in the enthusiasm each party's independent primary participants express towards Obama's and McCain's candidacies. In states in which the exit polls asked about satisfaction with the potential nomination, 71 percent of Democratic primary independents said they would be satisfied with an Obama nomination. Sixty-six percent of Republican primary independents said they would be satisfied if McCain were the Republican nominee, five points lower than Obama's independents.

At this point in the election the only hard evidence we have of actual candidate performance comes from those voters participating in the party primaries. What matters now is which candidate will have the edge among general electorate independents.

Looking at independent voters in the 2004 general election, assuming the 2008 pool could be similar, these voters had at least two distinguishing characteristics: they were better educated than their partisan counterparts, 47 percent were college graduates compared to 41 percent of Democrats and 42 percent of Republicans; and they were substantially more likely to call themselves ideological moderates, 57 percent did, compared to 50 percent of Democrats and 34 percent of Republicans.

More importantly, these differences held within important swing states across the country. 2004 self-described independent voters in Florida, Ohio, Arizona and Washington all fit this same profile of better-educated moderates. And in all of these cases, even in the states that went Republican, Kerry won this independent vote.

Obama begins the election season with a head-start among independent voters for this reason. Even in a Republican year, swing state independents demonstrated a Democratic tendency, a built-in advantage for Obama. In addition, the well-educated have proven to be a solid base of support for Obama. For example, among the Super Tuesday primary states Obama performed five points better among those with a college education than he did overall.

Obama has not, however, demonstrated strength among ideologically moderate voters, while McCain has. Obama has consistently performed best among the liberal wing of the Democratic primary electorate - a group ideologically far removed from general election moderates. McCain, on the other hand, has the opposite appeal. His problems have been with the conservative base of his party, not the liberals and moderates. On Super Tuesday, McCain received 15 points more of the vote among moderates than he did overall.

While this would seem to give McCain the advantage ideologically these voters will not be easy to woo. In Florida in 2004, independents who called themselves moderate voted 66 percent to 33 percent for Kerry, and in Ohio they went 60 percent to 39 percent for him, demonstrating even stronger Democratic predispositions than independents overall.

Based both on their levels of independent voter support in the primaries, and the characteristics of typical independent voters, it appears that both Obama and McCain have some appeal, with Obama having an initial edge. As Kerry demonstrated in 2004, however, merely winning the independent vote is not enough to win a state. Obama has to best Kerry's independent performance substantially to take tough states like Ohio and Florida.

For this reason, party base votes will also be vital. Here Obama has real cause for concern with less educated white voters, especially in some battleground states, unless he can maintain the enthusiasm of his new voters to balance out the potential base loss. In contrast, to hold his base McCain may merely have to avoid angering the Republican evangelical voting bloc that appears satisfied with him to this point.

-My Sister, the CBS Political Consultant

 

[N8 v2.0]

i hate having to vote in this election... i really do

 

[Inclag]

i hate having to vote in this election... i really do

Why? You don't have to vote, and you don't need to vote for Obama or McCain.

 

[N8 v2.0]

Why? You don't have to vote, and you don't need to vote for Obama or McCain.

nah... gotta vote.. it's the American Way

 

[Westy]

i hate having to vote in this election... i really do

Don't despair N8. Maybe there will be a local referendum you can vote for. Prevent women from going out after dark or maybe you can help cut funding budgets to inner city public schools.

 

[N8 v2.0]

Don't despair N8. Maybe there will be a local referendum you can vote for. Prevent women from going out after dark or maybe you can help cut funding budgets to inner city public schools.

i am hoping to vote against the state legislators' giving themselves a pay 100% pay raise...

 

[ohio]

SEARCH, NEWB

 

[N8 v2.0]

SEARCH, NEWB

helloooooooooooo......

...thats the mac daddy electoral college poll... this is the ubber meaningless popular vote poll.

 

[manimal]

Prevent women from going out after dark