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More real estate doom and gloom

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
27,566
2,214
I think the US is not out of the woods yet, not nearly. The below infographic sums it up nicely:



Local notes: the patch in the middle of Oregon is the Bend area, I bet. The inland empire in commuting/really-long-commuting distance from LA is all a mess. Vegas is a huge mess as is all of Florida. Even NJ and Long Island are up there. These foreclosures will be percolating through the system for years, will continue to depress home prices, and will continue to drive economic stagnation.

One thing is for sure: the days of seeing new, giant, home equity loan-financed SUVs in front of shiny new McMansions are over.
 

kidwoo

Celebrating No-Pants Day
Aug 25, 2003
22,482
2,153
In my pants
Funny how many floridians I have to listen to when I go home for the holidays talk about all the irresponsible home buying that caused all this. What up brown dick of the nation?

Also of note is the shlt tip of nevada. Anyone who's been to vegas in the last decade knows, all that spec development crap was hanging by a thread.
 

Pesqueeb

bicycle in airplane hangar
Feb 2, 2007
28,636
4,452
Riding the baggage carousel.
I remember back when I was in the Portland/Vancouver area making road trips out to the Bend area for work. The rate that stuff was going up out there was un-fvcking-believable, and sad. I grew up skiing and fishing in Redmond/Bend and it was a great small town, and for the most part it still is, but the mad scramble that was going on out there had a bad vibe almost from the beginning.
And it is going to get worse, a lot worse. Remember, most of the large banks are holding off on foreclosing while they get this robo-signing/foreclosure-gate mess out of the way.
 

FlyinPolack

Monkey
Jul 16, 2007
371
0
that map clearly shows that Florida is the nutsack of the USA. Are you sure that's not an infra-red map?
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
27,566
2,214
Thank god.
Similarly, I was relieved in a way by the dot.com bust, as I could take solace that most of the asshole-driven Mercedes SLs that cut me off on my bicycle commute to Palm (back in 2001) would be repoed soon :rofl:
 

MMike

A fowl peckerwood.
Sep 5, 2001
18,222
85
just sittin' here drinkin' scotch
I recall back in 2000 (when I was in Seattle) trying to understand the dot com boom. I asked a guy, "what exactly IS the product/service you are selling?"

my question was met with a blank stare.

and I said. "Ah."

The sad thing is that i was smart enough to see through it. But too dumb to capitalize on it....
 

Pesqueeb

bicycle in airplane hangar
Feb 2, 2007
28,636
4,452
Riding the baggage carousel.
I recall back in 2000 (when I was in Seattle) trying to understand the dot com boom. I asked a guy, "what exactly IS the product/service you are selling?"

my question was met with a blank stare.

and I said. "Ah."

The sad thing is that i was smart enough to see through it. But too dumb to capitalize on it....
Helicopter based derivatives. You missed the boat on that one I see.
 

jimmydean

The Official Meat of Ridemonkey
Sep 10, 2001
29,929
2,730
Portland, OR
I remember back when I was in the Portland/Vancouver area making road trips out to the Bend area for work. The rate that stuff was going up out there was un-fvcking-believable, and sad. I grew up skiing and fishing in Redmond/Bend and it was a great small town, and for the most part it still is, but the mad scramble that was going on out there had a bad vibe almost from the beginning.
And it is going to get worse, a lot worse. Remember, most of the large banks are holding off on foreclosing while they get this robo-signing/foreclosure-gate mess out of the way.
The original RM had said his company was looking for folks and I should come check it out. When I looked at the prices in Bend (2006) I was floored. There were a few hot start ups out there pre bubble, too. But being such a small place, the options are limited.

A friend of my wifes bought a house in Bend last year and got "A killer deal" and his house has dropped to almost half what he paid. Take a look at Ashland, folks there still think they are sitting on huge stacks of cash.
 

eaterofdog

ass grabber
Sep 8, 2006
6,914
116
Central Florida
You should see all the empty houses and businesses along the coast in florida. It's freaky. Not so bad inland.

But you can get an ocean front home for under 100K now. And it's not done falling.

My house is free and clear. But... I inherited a house. Guess I'll be a blood sucking land lord for a few years.
 

Pesqueeb

bicycle in airplane hangar
Feb 2, 2007
28,636
4,452
Riding the baggage carousel.
but but "Stocks extend morning's rally after double-digit gain in U.S. existing-home sales" wsj
Half full or half empty?
The NAR reported September existing home sales came at 4.53 million units, a 10% jump from the prior downward (of course) revised number of 4.12 million, compared to expectations of 4.3 million. Keeping this number in perspective, it is only the 3rd worst in history. http://www.zerohedge.com/article/existing-home-sales-jump-10-mm-453-million-3rd-worst-record-107-months-inventory-supply
 

Andyman_1970

Turbo Monkey
Apr 4, 2003
3,105
5
The Natural State
I remember back when I was in the Portland/Vancouver area making road trips out to the Bend area for work. The rate that stuff was going up out there was un-fvcking-believable, and sad. I grew up skiing and fishing in Redmond/Bend and it was a great small town, and for the most part it still is, but the mad scramble that was going on out there had a bad vibe almost from the beginning.
I've always had a weird feeling about the Bend deal.

My brother lived there for almost 10 years, and I went out there to visit several times (killer singletrack). When he and his wife got married in late 2003, they bought a home about 200 sq ft smaller than the house I owned, built same year (mid 80's vintage) and paid well above 200k more for their house. That for one struck me as odd. Then in early 2004 a company based in Bend contacted me to come out there and work (same industry, same job). They asked me what my salary requirements were, I took what I was making at the time, and added 16% (the cost of living difference). They responded with literally "WHOA that's like 10k over what that position tops out at!!!". So I began to wonder, how to people buy these overpriced homes with salaries that are below average.....it's obvious now that it couldn't sustain itself.
 

kidwoo

Celebrating No-Pants Day
Aug 25, 2003
22,482
2,153
In my pants
how to people buy these overpriced homes with salaries that are below average.....it's obvious now that it couldn't sustain itself.
They didn't. Look how dark that county is :D


It's kind of funny how relative this sort of thing is. I've got some friends in bend so I've been there a ton. Everyone there would show me houses and prices and talk about inflated markets this or that. That place didn't hold a candle to what happened in tahoe.
 

jimmydean

The Official Meat of Ridemonkey
Sep 10, 2001
29,929
2,730
Portland, OR
I've always had a weird feeling about the Bend deal.
That was my thing, companies in Bend wanted to pay 15% off market rate when the housing prices were well above. Same deal in Ashland, houses start at the mid $300k and salary is about 30% (or 47% in my case) less than Portland rates and people think it's normal.
 

manimal

Ociffer Tackleberry
Feb 27, 2002
7,214
14
Blindly running into cactus
home values in my area have been largely unaffected by the drop...but then again, we never had much of a bubble here in the first place. i bought my house in july of 2006, near the peak of the bubble, and it hasn't lost any value. during the loan app process i was floored by how much the banks said i could afford...they were trying to sell me loan packages for $300k homes and i was making ~$45k at the time with 3 kids! who the hell could afford that?!
 

Pesqueeb

bicycle in airplane hangar
Feb 2, 2007
28,636
4,452
Riding the baggage carousel.
they were trying to sell me loan packages for $300k homes and i was making ~$45k at the time with 3 kids! who the hell could afford that?!
Nobody can. Thats why we have this problem. Because irresponsible people took loans like that that were issued to them by irresponsible banks so that the notes could be sold to irresponsible investment banks to be bundled into complex financial securites that nobody understood.
 

stoney

Part of the unwashed, middle-American horde
Jul 26, 2006
14,576
1,585
Colorado
Exactly. And who is to blame other than everyone who was involved? I see no reason why, as someone who did not get involved, should be paying for others excesses. You overbought? That's a problem for you, and a buying opportunity for me. Deal with it.
 

KavuRider

Turbo Monkey
Jan 30, 2006
2,567
3
CT
Exactly. And who is to blame other than everyone who was involved? I see no reason why, as someone who did not get involved, should be paying for others excesses. You overbought? That's a problem for you, and a buying opportunity for me. Deal with it.
Excesses, no.
But a lot of other people (like me) got screwed when values tanked and interest rates skyrocketed.
I bought well within my price range, before the bubble. But my house is now worth far less than I paid for it over 6 years ago, because of this. And I bought sub $100K...
 

stoney

Part of the unwashed, middle-American horde
Jul 26, 2006
14,576
1,585
Colorado
Did you buy with a fixed rate loan? If not, then you made the poor decision, because that's the only way rates would not impact you. Also rates for 30y fixed are at all time lows currently. I am sorry that you paid too much for your house, but nobody made you sign the docs. Like every other type of transaction out there, there is always market risk.
 

Nick

My name is Nick
Sep 21, 2001
15,399
3,646
behind you, don't wait up.
Has anyone here every bought a bank owned property?
I'm in a position to buy (been renting since I moved here in April) and haven't a clue how to take advantage of the situation. Do I start with the banks themselves and ask about properties in the area which I'm looking? Is there a database that is a reputable source of info? (versus 'sell you a list' marketing site)
 

BurlyShirley

Rex Grossman Will Rise Again
Jul 4, 2002
19,183
1
TN
Has anyone here every bought a bank owned property?
I'm in a position to buy (been renting since I moved here in April) and haven't a clue how to take advantage of the situation. Do I start with the banks themselves and ask about properties in the area which I'm looking? Is there a database that is a reputable source of info? (versus 'sell you a list' marketing site)

Yeah, I bought one a few years ago.
I didn't have to deal with the bank directly though, as all the foreclosures I looked at had realty signs in the yard, as the bank had hired a realtor to deal with its properties. I didnt hire a realtor of my own either, just went on realtor.com and looked in areas I liked. When I saw a house that was decent and cheap enough to warrant looking at, Id call the number on the sign and set up a visit. Im not sure if this is good advice or not, but Im happy with the deal I got. I bought kind of a beater, but its a decent place now.

By the way, when I was looking for houses online, I dont recall seeing anything that said which houses were and weren't bank owned, however, you could pretty much tell if you swung by and the place was empty and the grass was tall, etc. Basically if it looked abandoned and was really cheap, it was bank owned.
 

KavuRider

Turbo Monkey
Jan 30, 2006
2,567
3
CT
Did you buy with a fixed rate loan? If not, then you made the poor decision, because that's the only way rates would not impact you. Also rates for 30y fixed are at all time lows currently. I am sorry that you paid too much for your house, but nobody made you sign the docs. Like every other type of transaction out there, there is always market risk.
I didn't pay too much for my house and that's not what I'm saying anyways.

NO. The PROBLEM I have is that, because of this mess, the banks have a "F you" attitude with everyone - so when my hours were drastically reduced, and I called the bank to see if I could work something out in the short term (after never paying late for 6 years straight), they told me to F off.
 

SkaredShtles

I love NEWCASTLE and will ONLY drink NEWCASTLE!!!!
Sep 21, 2003
49,262
3,206
In a van.... down by the river
I didn't pay too much for my house and that's not what I'm saying anyways.
I admire your optimism... but yes, you did pay too much for your house if it's worth less now than it was when you bought it.

NO. The PROBLEM I have is that, because of this mess, the banks have a "F you" attitude with everyone - so when my hours were drastically reduced, and I called the bank to see if I could work something out in the short term (after never paying late for 6 years straight), they told me to F off.
The banks have always had this attitude. It's just with all the financial mess they've gotten themselves into it's a bit more venomous now. :p
 

stoney

Part of the unwashed, middle-American horde
Jul 26, 2006
14,576
1,585
Colorado
I can't say anything about the bank's position, due to my job... But I ask a few simple finance questions.
1) Did you have 6 months of expenses, in cash, saved up?
2) Do you have a fixed or variable loan? I ask this because it affects your 6 months savings, and market risk variables.

These are minimum financial stability measures. If you don't have this, you can't afford a home (or lifestyle). I'm sorry if this is too harsh, but it's how one survives a downturn or job loss. You have to plan for the worst and then hope for the best. It took me having a major medial problem and having to sell almost everything I own to pay the bills to learn this.

Also, you make it sound like paying on time for 6 years is a feat. It's a contract. That's what you are supposed to do. When you do not have full ownership of your home (mortgage), you are just renting from the loaner. It is not your home until you have no loan. It does not matter who owns the loan (and therfore the home).

And you can swear and call me an a**hole all you want, but this is how most Americans lived and spent until the early 80's, which is when the country's credit problems really began...
 

KavuRider

Turbo Monkey
Jan 30, 2006
2,567
3
CT
I can't say anything about the bank's position, due to my job... But I ask a few simple finance questions.
1) Did you have 6 months of expenses, in cash, saved up?
2) Do you have a fixed or variable loan? I ask this because it affects your 6 months savings, and market risk variables.

These are minimum financial stability measures. If you don't have this, you can't afford a home (or lifestyle). I'm sorry if this is too harsh, but it's how one survives a downturn or job loss. You have to plan for the worst and then hope for the best. It took me having a major medial problem and having to sell almost everything I own to pay the bills to learn this.

Also, you make it sound like paying on time for 6 years is a feat. It's a contract. That's what you are supposed to do. When you do not have full ownership of your home (mortgage), you are just renting from the loaner. It is not your home until you have no loan. It does not matter who owns the loan (and therfore the home).

And you can swear and call me an a**hole all you want, but this is how most Americans lived and spent until the early 80's, which is when the country's credit problems really began...
I'm sorry, but IN MY CASE, you're 200% wrong. For many reasons I don't really want to go into on a public message board. Suffice it to say, I did have 2 serious medical problems that completely wiped me out financially. Because I did the responsible thing and paid my debts.
Hey, I'm not upset, I got the home loan mod, I have a paid off vehicle and I'm current on my bills. I'm broke as hell, but I'm "responsible".

High five!

PS - I think we actually do agree, but you seem to want to be on a soapbox right now, so you I'll let you rant.
 

SkaredShtles

I love NEWCASTLE and will ONLY drink NEWCASTLE!!!!
Sep 21, 2003
49,262
3,206
In a van.... down by the river
I'm sorry, but IN MY CASE, you're 200% wrong. For many reasons I don't really want to go into on a public message board. Suffice it to say, I did have 2 serious medical problems that completely wiped me out financially. Because I did the responsible thing and paid my debts.
Hey, I'm not upset, I got the home loan mod, I have a paid off vehicle and I'm current on my bills. I'm broke as hell, but I'm "responsible".

High five!

PS - I think we actually do agree, but you seem to want to be on a soapbox right now, so you I'll let you rant.
Aren't you in your 20's? You're too young to have a mortgage. :p
 

KavuRider

Turbo Monkey
Jan 30, 2006
2,567
3
CT
Aren't you in your 20's? You're too young to have a mortgage. :p
Tell me about it :dead:

I had moved into an apartment right when I turned 18, with a roommate. Roommate moved back home, rent was due to increase, couldn't afford it.

Parent's convinced me buying a house would be smart. I now disagree with that. Was going to sell at the peak, but again, was convinced to stay. Then the bubble burst and here I am.

That's life.
 

SkaredShtles

I love NEWCASTLE and will ONLY drink NEWCASTLE!!!!
Sep 21, 2003
49,262
3,206
In a van.... down by the river
Tell me about it :dead:

I had moved into an apartment right when I turned 18, with a roommate. Roommate moved back home, rent was due to increase, couldn't afford it.

Parent's convinced me buying a house would be smart. I now disagree with that. Was going to sell at the peak, but again, was convinced to stay. Then the bubble burst and here I am.

That's life.
Damn you parents!!