[KavuRider]

http://www.foreclosureradar.com/arizona/maricopa-county/phoenix-foreclosures/listings

Great site.
Lots of foreclosures in my area...wow. Zip 85015. Not a great area...

Its hard to break from that mentality that I would be doing something "wrong". I guess in the sense that you are obligated to fulfill your end of the deal.

I will say this - 27 is FAR too young to buy a house, especially now and when you have no idea what you want to do in the future.

 

[jimmydean]

http://www.foreclosureradar.com/arizona/maricopa-county/phoenix-foreclosures/listings

Damn.

Value = $72,579, Loan Amount = $237,407

 

[Pesqueeb]

Great site.
Lots of foreclosures in my area...wow. Zip 85015. Not a great area...

Says time to foreclose is >140 days. Maybe i'm not searching right cause I can't seem to find anything, but the real important data point is going to be how long those homes have been delinquent before foreclosure was started.

 

[KavuRider]

Says time to foreclose is >140 days. Maybe i'm not searching right cause I can't seem to find anything, but the real important data point is going to be how long those homes have been delinquent before foreclosure was started.

When I talked to WF about trying to work something out originally, before I did the modification, they had said something to the effect of 60-90 days delinquent. That was over a year ago though, so who knows now.

I'm also not sure what affect the mod will have on things.

I do know that apparently the modification is counted as a delinquency on my credit already - so they kind of already have screwed me when I was trying to do the "right thing". So I'm kind of to the point of F 'em now.

 

[Pesqueeb]

From a real estate blog, so read with a grain of salt:

Delinquent home owners are living in their homes longer, rent-free. Home owners with a loan in foreclosure haven’t made a payment, on average, for 20 months or 599 days–a new record, according to new data by Lender Processing Services Inc.
Of nearly 1.9 million loans that are 90 or more days delinquent–but not yet in foreclosure–42 percent of the home owners have not made a payment in more than a year, with an average delinquency of 397 days–another record, LPS reports.
The slowdown in foreclosures was most evident in judicial foreclosure states. At the current rate of foreclosure sales, judicial foreclosure states would require 111 months to work through inventories of loans that are 90 or more days delinquent or in foreclosure. On the other hand, non-judicial states would be able to clear inventories in about 32 months, according to LPS data.
http://shortsalesphoenixaz.com/foreclosure-delay-records/

 

[Pesqueeb]

Ooooooooooo...........
Charts:

Lots and lots of charts.

 

[stoney]

Just walk away. It's not worth it to keep it and the neighborhood will just draw in a crowd to further devalue it. What's the worst that can happen? You can't buy another house for 7 years?

 

[woodsguy]

According to that chard you don't have to walk away. You can live for free for two years!

 

[stoney]

Walk away, as in don't pay you mortgage.

 

[mandown]

“What are you talking about? America is not going to be destroyed.”

“Never? Rome was destroyed, Greece was destroyed, Persia was destroyed, Spain was destroyed.
All great countries are destroyed. Why not yours? How much longer do you think your own country will last? Forever?”

 

[dante]

“What are you talking about? America is not going to be destroyed.”

“Never? Rome was destroyed, Greece was destroyed, Persia was destroyed, Spain was destroyed.
All great countries are destroyed. Why not yours? How much longer do you think your own country will last? Forever?”

Debt destruction is a good and positive thing. Remember, dollars have to go somewhere. If they're entirely spent servicing debt, there's no GDP generated. Think about it this way:

You make $100/month. You spend $100/month. Economic activity is increased $100/month.

You make $100/month. You spend $10,000 (all on credit). Economic activity is increased by $10,000. (yay!!)

You make $100/month. You send $100/month to your credit card company. You can't buy anything because you have no money. Economic activity is $0.

You default on your credit card. You still make $100/month. You now spend $100/month. Economic activity is $100/month.


All debt does is shift the positive economic growth from the future to now, with reduced economic activity in the future as we pay off our debts. Debt destruction (foreclosure, default, bankruptcy, etc) rebalances that and allows for continued spending and growth. The process sucks, but the end result is a healthier economy...

 

[mandown]

But the message it sends to the kids is that is ok to make a promise to pay someone then break it. How many times can we allow a do-over, and who takes the hair cut this time? It sure won't be fun living in the "fool me twice" days.

 

[dante]

But the message it sends to the kids is that is ok to make a promise to pay someone then break it. How many times can we allow a do-over, and who takes the hair cut this time? It sure won't be fun living in the "fool me twice" days.

Nope, the message it sends to kids is that there's a contract, with stated penalties for breaking it. If you're willing to endure the penalties, then you can freely break the contract. "You have to eat your vegetables or you go to bed without dinner". That's a contract. Kids aren't eating their veggies because it's the right and moral thing to do, they're doing it because the punishment is worse. Well, the "punishment" in your case is giving up the house and moving elsewhere, and a ding to your credit score. If the bank didn't make the penalties worse, that's the bank's fault.

Harsh lesson, but they've got to learn it at some point...


edit: And actually, the Freakenomics authors would probably argue that once you put a penalty on breaking a contract, there's less of an obligation to keep it. They had an example of parents picking up kids from pre-school, and when there was no "penalty" for being late, most of the kids were picked up on time. When they instituted a small fee ($5) for parents being late, the number of parents who didn't pick up their kids on time actually *increased* since the monetary fine absolved them of any guilt... People figured "oh, I'll just pay the $5 and be late", whereas previously it was on the honor system.

 

[clarkenstein]

Harsh lesson, but they've got to learn it at some point...

what its really teaching them is don't loan your money to just anyone...

 

[KavuRider]

Just walk away. It's not worth it to keep it and the neighborhood will just draw in a crowd to further devalue it. What's the worst that can happen? You can't buy another house for 7 years?

That is pretty much where I think I am right now.
I just don't see it getting better in the near future.

As I said, I'm still pretty young and I have no intention of buying a house again in the next decade or so. I would just rather rent a place. Less hassle, more freedom.
I've lived in this place for 7 years, tried to weather the storm, but at this point, its draining me to the point of not being able to meet my other obligations.

Still, its a pretty scary thought, at least to me.

 

[mandown]

I don't know that it is the fault of the bank for not making the penalty harsh enough. I think the cat is out of the bag that you can't get blood from a turnip. The folks who are defaulting can't pay the loans or the penalties. You can't punish someone who can't afford a payment by giving them a punishment in the form of a payment, because they will fvck that up too.

Slice it any way you want. I still don't look forward to being in the bleeding edge round of folks that try to get mortgages. Not that I'm planning to.

 

[stoney]

Slice it any way you want. I still don't look forward to being in the bleeding edge round of folks that try to get mortgages. Not that I'm planning to.

Banks will continue to loan. They have to, it's the only way to keep asset levels high enough. They banks live in a constant state of default without regular cash inflows. They are just being far more selective with regards to who gets loans now.

 

[KavuRider]

Banks will continue to loan. They have to, it's the only way to keep asset levels high enough. They banks live in a constant state of default without regular cash inflows. They are just being far more selective with regards to who gets loans now.

Good.
That's what they should have done.

Looking back, I should not have qualified.

 

[IH8Rice]

woohoo! i finally owe less then $100k on my mortgage. thankfully the houses around here are finally starting to sell for more then i bought it for.

 

[SkaredShtles]

I don't know that it is the fault of the bank for not making the penalty harsh enough.

Ever heard of Debtor's Prison? Penalties USED to be harsher...

 

[dante]

And Bernanke doubles down on CRAAAAAAAAZY!!!

The central bank will buy securities with maturities of six to 30 years through June while selling an equal amount of debt maturing in three years or less, the Federal Open Market Committee said today in Washington after a two-day meeting. The action “should put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates and help make broader financial conditions more accommodative,” the FOMC said.

The central bank said today it will also reinvest maturing housing debt into mortgage-backed securities instead of Treasuries “to help support conditions in mortgage markets.”

Yields on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage securities that guide U.S. home-loan rates tumbled the most in more than two years relative to Treasuries. The average rate on a typical 30-year fixed loan fell to a record low 4.09 percent last week.

FHA loans in my area are still at 3.875, local banks are sitting at 4% even (servicing retained, servicing transferred is 1/8th pt lower). Looks like Bernanke is trying to push the mortgage loans down closer to the 10y Treasury prices of 1.88%. If it works, it might actually do something for the economy. More refinances (if consumers can get them through) means a decent amount more cash in consumers pockets (1% change on our mortgage interest = ~$100/month), and lower interest rates will spur housing prices, or at the very least keep them above where they would have fallen otherwise. It's interesting to see Bernanke talk about trying to push down mortgage rates when they're at 4%...

Of course, other actions similar to this haven't worked to push rates down that far, and even if they did I wonder how many people wouldn't even be able to refinance? We're in somewhat of that condition, above water but a more up-to-date appraisal would probably push us back into PMI which would cancel out any savings from refinancing. Dunno, I guess only time will tell.

 

[X3pilot]

Might work, if I read you right, dependent on the banks turning loose of the easy money they can borrow from the Fed at almost no interest? Correct?

 

[KavuRider]

Another condo in my complex just went into foreclosure, sold at auction.
Crazy. Something like $26,000.

My neighbor was saying he was thinking of buying it. Needs some work though (roof and A/C units are shot, much like mine).

I don't know, still leaning heavily towards getting out in the next 6 months or so...

 

[KavuRider]

Crazy...

Maricopa County tops list for home vacancies

http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/2011/10/07/20111007maricopa-county-tops-home-vacancies-list.html

 

[Pesqueeb]

Back to the races......

More U.S. homes are entering the foreclosure process, but they're taking ever longer to get sold or repossessed by lenders.

The number of U.S. homes that received a first-time default notice during the July to September quarter increased 14 percent compared to the second quarter, RealtyTrac Inc. said Thursday.

That increase signals banks are moving more aggressively now against borrowers who have fallen behind on their mortgage payments than they have since industrywide foreclosure processing problems emerged last fall. Those problems resulted in a sharp drop in foreclosure activity this year.

The surge in default notices means homeowners who haven't kept up their mortgage payments could now end up on the foreclosure path sooner. Initial default notices are first step in the process that can eventually lead to a home being taken back by a lender.

Clearing The Backlog

A pickup in foreclosure activity also means a potentially faster turnaround for the U.S. housing market. Experts say a revival isn't likely to occur as long as there remains a glut of potential foreclosures hovering over the market.

The third-quarter increase in initial defaults was largely a product of a spike in August. In September, default notices were off 10 percent from August, RealtyTrac said.

Still, the jump in initial defaults during the July to September period is significant because it is the first increase after five consecutive quarterly declines, suggesting banks are gradually addressing their backlog of homes in foreclosure and are now beginning to move on more recent home loan defaults, said RealtyTrac CEO James Saccacio.

"While foreclosure activity in September and the third quarter continued to register well below levels from a year ago, there is evidence that this temporary downward trend is about to change direction, with foreclosure activity slowly beginning to ramp back up," Saccacio said.

Why Foreclosures Slowed

Foreclosure activity began to slow last fall after problems surfaced with the way many lenders were handling foreclosure paperwork, namely shoddy mortgage paperwork comprising several shortcuts known collectively as robo-signing.
Many of the nation's largest banks reacted by temporarily ceasing all foreclosures, re-filing previously filed foreclosure cases and revisiting pending cases to prevent errors.

Other factors have also worked to stall the pace of new foreclosures this year. The process has been held up by court delays in states where judges play a role in the foreclosure process, lenders' reluctance to take back properties amid slowing home sales and a possible settlement of government probes into the industry's mortgage-lending practices.

Those settlement talks, led by a group of state attorneys general, have been undermined in recent weeks after state officials in some states, including California and Massachusetts, have broken with the rest of the states.

Foreclosure Process Remains A Long One

While banks appear more willing to start the foreclosure countdown on borrowers, they haven't put a dent in the overall length of the foreclosure process.

In the third quarter, it took an average of 336 days, or 11.2 months, for a U.S. home to go from receiving an initial notice of default to being foreclosed by a lender, RealtyTrac said.

That's up from 318 days, or 10.6 months, in the second quarter and represents the largest average span of time for the foreclosure process since the first quarter of 2007, the firm said.

In some states, it's even longer. It took an average of 986 days, almost three years, for the foreclosure process to play out in New York in the third quarter the longest stretch of time of any state, RealtyTrac said.

New Jersey was a close second at 974 days, while Florida was third at 749 days, or just over two years.

Not all states are seeing an increase in the time it takes for homes to move through the foreclosure process, however.

In Texas, homes made it through the foreclosure process in an average of 86 days during the third quarter, down from 92 days in the second quarter, RealtyTrac said.

In all, 195,878 properties received a default notice in the third quarter. Despite the sharp increase from the second quarter, the total was still down 27 percent versus the third quarter last year, RealtyTrac said.

Lenders took back 196,530 homes during the quarter, down 4 percent from the second quarter and down 32 percent from the same quarter last year.

Banks remain on track to repossess some 800,000 homes this year, down from more than 1 million last year, Saccacio said.

RealtyTrac had originally anticipated some 1.2 million homes would be repossessed by lenders this year.
http://www.npr.org/2011/10/13/141314547/foreclosures-ramping-up-again-after-lull

 

[$tinkle]

locally, things have been heating up.

we can't bid high enough on any foreclosure we like, even if it's been on teh market 400+ days. that whole deal about "you can get a house for 70% of FMV" is a lie here. some properties have come down, but one we were looking at (on the aptly named 'jackboot drive') has come down only 10% since it was first a distressed property (it's now bank owned).

another property we were stalking had 60 showings, resulting in a couple dozen bids.

oh, *never* do an auction as a buyer. you will *never* get a "great deal"

 

[IH8Rice]

my neighbor is selling her condo which is identical to mine and its thankfully selling for $10k then i bought mine for 6+ years ago. not the best gain (its still thankfully a gain) but at least hers and the other condos arent getting killed

 

[Pesqueeb]

"Jackboot Drive"? Is that where your little Philippine Tart Malkin lives?

There was something in the Gazette awhile back about how home here are moving fairly well. I'll see if I can find it.

 

[$tinkle]

"Jackboot Drive"? Is that where your little Philippine Tart Malkin lives?

no way; i think she shares a privacy fence w/ dobson

i'm so tired of road noise...

 

[Pesqueeb]

no way; i think she shares a privacy fence w/ dobson

i'm so tired of road noise...

Buddy of mine who was doing fairly well flipping places is coming over for dinner tonight, I'll ask him what he's seen.

 

[Pesqueeb]

Sales of existing homes fall 3% in September - Economic Report - MarketWatch

 

[IH8Rice]

Holy crap. Down here in The Villages,Florida the housing crash has not hit this place what so ever. There's tens of thousands of houses being put up all over the place. My parents just built a house down here and it's seems like everyone from up north is moving down here. Something like 400+ new houses are sold every month in their area alone

 

[$tinkle]

well i'm sure this would work just fine:

Jim Moran | Obama Jobs Plan | Refinance Every Home Mortgage | The Daily Caller

 

[dante]

I think it'd work great, and I'm happy that Jim Moran is a fan of my economic policies...

It would set up almost a 2-tier mortgage system: One recourse loan at stupidly low rates (4%?) obtained direct from the federal government at 10y treasury +.5%, and one non-recourse loan at a higher rate from a private lender (6%)? If you want the ability to walk away from your debt in a foreclosure, you have to pay a higher rate. If you are willing to shoulder the responsibility of paying back your loan no matter what, you get a lower rate.

Instead we have mediocre rates for all backed by the US taxpayer with profit going to private companies... the worst of both worlds.

 

[stoney]

I think it'd work great, and I'm happy that Jim Moran is a fan of my economic policies...

That's a perfect solution actually.

 

[$tinkle]

That's a perfect solution actually.

thanks, hitler

 

[stoney]

thanks, hitler

Financial stability /= elimination of a people.

 

[$tinkle]

i get the feeling we've been here before...

Financial stability /= elimination of a people.

yet this version for financial stability [such that it would be] won't cause a windfall of personal responsibility, to include making -- and following -- a budget. but like angry black guy in stevew's post said (OWS thread), why should we if our gubment don't?

maybe living social should get involved here

 

[JayBear]

Just got our property tax statement yesterday...Our house has de valued by fifteen thousand in three years..

House de valued, but property taxes went up.


" Real estate is your best investment son "

 

[Pesqueeb]

Just got our property tax statement yesterday...Our house has de valued by fifteen thousand in three years..

House de valued, but property taxes went up.


" Real estate is your best investment son "

So.....Sleeping under Burnside doesn't sound so bad, financially speaking.