[Pesqueeb]

Nonsense! Catch the falling knife, don't be a pvssy.

 

[dante]

Had a moment of blinding realization ~a week ago. We live in an established neighborhood, primarily built in the 1950s (and since, with renovations and rebuilding going on throughout that time), and there are very few foreclosures/bank-owned-homes in our neighborhood. Probably less than a dozen in a town of ~8,000 people, and very few abandoned homes. We bought in '07, so obviously our house has gone down in value, but it hasn't been catastrophic. (Yahoo real estate says 16 either bank-owned or "pre-foreclosure", with only 4 as bank-owned)

However, I was realizing that for recently built development homes, everyone bought at exactly the same time. If a housing development was completed in '05, for example, everyone living in that entire neighborhood is facing the exact same financial calamity with regards to plunging home prices. There's no staggering of home sales, with one neighbor having bought in 1990, one having bought in 1997, one having bought in 2002, one having bought in '07, one having bought in '10, etc. Even just the next neighborhood over, if the development was built in say '01 or '02 the inhabitants are probably doing fine, but I would bet that the "housing crisis" is *extremely* local with some neighborhoods suffering and some older established ones doing just fine.

It's just creepy because as we were looking at houses, you could see literally the exact year that the entire neighborhood was built. They were building developments on open farmland as fast as they could out here, and so you could see exactly when each of the neighborhoods were built. Hopefully we're insulated by the fact that there aren't any new housing developments for at least ~5 miles or so?

 

[Pesqueeb]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
That would be nice. The homes in our hood are all 20+ years old. Anecdotally I would say were in a pretty similar situation, though our hood is a bit of an oddity here. When the development our house is in when up it was right before the last housing bubble popped back in the 80's and was pretty much a cluster of homes out all by itself until things really got cooking again. So our little hood is just like what you describe, but is an island with a cluster of developments that are all less than 10 years old, which have an astonishing number of foreclosures or "pre-foreclosures".

 

[Serial Midget]

Even with my company paid relocation expense, buyout and loss on sale benefits - there is no way I will buy again anytime soon, despite the 3 pre-qualifications I have received for insane amounts of mortgage all in the 4.12 to 4.25 range. I'll be a happy renter in less than 90 days.

On a side note - I attended a company financial conference in 2008 where a guest speaker suggested the turn around for real estate could be as long as 10 years due to high levels of inventory.

 

[?????]

Thank you HGTV for convincing Americans that buying a house for $150,000 and installing a new kitchen for $10,000 and then selling for $300,000 so that the next buyer could install new flooring and then sell for $400,000 to another schmuck looking to 'flip' the house was some how a smart or sustainable idea.

Unless you hired a skilled architect and contractor, or you bought a home in an established neighborhood, your house is not an investment.

FYI, that house you bought in the suburbs is going to be in the slums or simply abandoned in 20 years.

 

[spam16v]

I did okay, bought my first house 3 years ago, walked away a year ago and broke even which considering living in it for 2 years and only painting the inside, I did okay. I grabbed my current house, and will likely stay here for some time and can't loose too much, the lot is worth what I paid for the house. I'm not too worried, I'm sub 4%, my mortgage is sustainable on side work even if my wife loses her job and I stay in school full time.

 

[Pesqueeb]

For months, a massive federal settlement with big Wall Street banks over their role in the mortgage crisis has been in the offing. The rumored details have always given progressives heartburn: civil immunity, no investigations, inadequate help for homeowners and a small penalty for the banks. Now, on the eve President Obama’s State of the Union address—in which he plans to further advance a populist message against big money and income inequality—the deal may be here, and it’s every bit as ugly as progressives feared.

The Associated Press reports that a proposed deal could be announced within weeks. Five banks—Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Citibank and Ally Financial (formerly GMAC)—would pay the federal government $25 billion. About $17 billion would be used to reduce the principal that some struggling homeowners owe, $5 billion more would be used for future federal and state programs and $3 billion would be used to help homeowners refinance at 5.25 percent. Civil immunity would be granted to the banks for any role in foreclosure fraud, and there would be no investigations.

There are several reasons why this is could be a terrible deal. For one, the dollar amount is inadequate in relation to both the tremendous loss of wealth via mortgage fraud and the hefty balance sheets of these massive companies. Furthermore, the banks might be allowed to use investor money instead of their own funds—this makes the penalty even lower. Beyond all that: it’s extremely hard to justify the absence of investigations and punishment for mortgage fraud that was so widespread and so damaging to people’s lives.

There are also many other, more serious problems besides a lack of punitive action. The small amount of money—and the federal government’s recent inability to truly help underwater mortgage holders, of which there are currently 11 million—means that the victims of mortgage fraud might not see enough relief. And perhaps most importantly, with no real punishment for widespread damaging fraud, what are the incentives on Wall Street not to engage in similarly destructive practices once again?

On a major conference call this morning, many leading progressive voices inside Washington and out blasted the deal.

Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio characterized the rumored deal as “not much more than a slap on the wrist,” and added that while banks were always know to be too big to fail, they were now apparently “too big to jail.”

“When laws are broken there need to be full investigations,” Brown said. “Wall Street should not get another bailout.”

Brown urged Obama to reject the deal and order investigations into the banks’ practices immediately. Simon Johnson, an economist at MIT and well-known progressive voice, also called for no deal and immediate investigations.

“This is not just the right thing do, and not just good politics, it’s good economics,” Johnson said. “What’s at stake here is the rule of law.”

Robert Borosage, co-director of the Campaign for America’s Future, blasted the rumored deal as well and urged the administration to consider the political optics.

“No one who robbed a bank would be offered immunity, a modest fine, and no admission of guilt before there was an investigation,” Borosage said. “Americans are increasingly cynical with the ability of democracy to deal with special interests.

“The president’s campaign will sensibly highlight his commitment to fairer rules,” he continued. “Needless to say, a sweetheart deal with the banks will contrast with that.”

As we noted last week, many progressive groups have begun a massive petition drive to push back against the settlement and demand fair investigations. Moreover, attorneys general in California, New York, Delaware, Nevada and Massachusetts have previously said they won’t be a part of any deal that offers civil immunity.

So the deal is far from done—but it’s certainly moving towards an undesirable conclusion. We’ll have plenty more in this space all week.

http://www.thenation.com/blog/165806/obama-brink-settlement-big-banks-and-progressives-are-furious

 

[$tinkle]

let's see: $17B to be used for 11M mortgages

assuming even distribution, that means each loan is paid down roughly $1545, or about one monthly payment.

to put it even bleaker, that's less than 0.1% of the avg note balance.

 

[DaveW]

let's see: $17B to be used for 11M mortgages

assuming even distribution, that means each loan is paid down roughly $1545, or about one monthly payment.

to put it even bleaker, that's less than 0.1% of the avg note balance.

I wouldn't be even remotely surprised to find that that payout gets weighted in favor of the largest mortgages.

 

[Pesqueeb]

WASHINGTON -- During his State of the Union address tonight, President Obama will announce the creation of a special unit to investigate misconduct and illegalities that contributed to both the financial collapse and the mortgage crisis.

The office, part of a new Unit on Mortgage Origination and Securitization Abuses, will be chaired by Eric Schneiderman, the New York attorney general, according to a White House official.

Schneiderman is an increasingly beloved figure among progressives for his criticism of a proposed settlement between the 50 state attorneys generals and the five largest banks. His presence atop this new special unit could give it immediate legitimacy among those who have criticized the president for being too hesitant in going after the banks and resolving the mortgage crisis. He will be in attendance at Tuesday night's State of the Union address.

"The goal of this joint investigation will be threefold: to hold accountable any institutions that violated the law; to compensate victims and help provide relief for homeowners struggling from the collapse of the housing market, caused in part by this wrongdoing; and to help us finally turn the page on this destructive period in our nation’s history," reads a White House document outlining the objectives.

"This is a big achievement and something the entire progressive advocacy community wanted [with respect to] housing policy," added the White House official.

The unit will not supersede the efforts already underway by the Department of Justice. Instead, it will operate as part of the president's Financial Fraud Enforcement Task Force. In addition to Schneiderman, the unit will be co-chaired by Lanny Breuer, assistant attorney general at the Criminal Division of the Department of Justice, Robert Khuzami, director of enforcement at the SEC; John Walsh, a U.S. attorney in Colorado, and Tony West, assistant attorney general in the Civil Division at DOJ.

News of the new mortgage unit comes amidst reports of a potential settlement between the five biggest banks, the Obama administration and the state attorneys generals. Under the deal, banks would agree to follow existing laws against abusive foreclosures and set aside $25 billion to both help homeowners who are underwater on their homes or who were wrongfully foreclosed. The agreement has been in the works for months, with disagreements over the level of legal immunity granted to banks accused of wrongdoing, and the scope of violations covered by the deal.

Critics of the pending settlement have argued that the president should couple the financial relief for homeowners with a robust law enforcement effort targeting lawbreaking by big banks. Schneiderman has been among the settlement's most prominent critics for months, insisting that a deal not release bankers from criminal charges, and urging AGs to look into violations outside the foreclosure process, including issuing fraudulent loans and improprieties in the packaging of those loans into complex bonds that would become toxic assets.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/24/obama-housing-crisis-unit_n_1229617.html?1327453577

 

[$tinkle]

Faces of Foreclosure -- Vieira Family on Vimeo

awwww....

 

[Pesqueeb]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

That's certainly a cute anecdote Brietbarts flying monkeys managed to dig up. Clearly indicative of the entire housing situation.

 

[$tinkle]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

That's certainly a cute anecdote Brietbarts flying monkeys managed to dig up. Clearly indicative of the entire housing situation.

no, that's what happens when an asian woman is raised to think she can manage finances

she's still a woman

 

[syadasti]

no, that's what happens when an asian woman is raised to think she can manage finances

she's still a woman

An imperceptible oversight in comparison to almost crashing the world economy via mortgage backed securities fraud by white men. Computers were women before they were electronic.

 

[$tinkle]

An imperceptible oversight in comparison to almost crashing the world economy via mortgage back securities fraud by white men.

true insomuch as both sets lied to themselves thinking the solutions were economically viable

e: "computors"?

 

[Toshi]

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/01/business/economy/home-prices-decline-again.html

The Case-Shiller index is down 3.7% year over year (Nov '11 vs. '10). Atlanta is the worst, down 12% over that same period (!). Seattle, Las Vegas, and Tampa all hit new lows as well.

The bust continues.

 

[$tinkle]

“The enormous supply overhang of existing homes (particularly factoring in all those in foreclosure or soon to be) promises to keep pressure on prices for some time,”

well, that's consistent w/ what we've been seeing here.

a house we withdrew a bid on only a few mos back finally moved 10% under our [very low] bid.

the sharks are circling...

 

[dante]

the sharks are circling...

Whoa. Looking through some of those you get to one like this. Zestimate of $351k in March '05, sold for $445k, and it's now down to $395k where they've been trying to sell it since Sept... Or this one, sold in '07 for $480k, then sold last year for $385k and back on the market for $400k... I have to wonder how many of these McMansions (they all seem to be 3500'+?) were financed with sub-prime ARMs?

 

[$tinkle]

that doesn't show the whole picture, as lots of people have taken their homes off the market to avoid being 300+ days on, so around april that place should blow up being fresh chummed

oh, & i find it amusing there's still people trying to sell lots, as if a builder could touch the soon-to-be-falling-at-terminal-velocity-knife prices

 

[SkaredShtles]

Whoa. Looking through some of those you get to one like this. Zestimate of $351k in March '05, sold for $445k, and it's now down to $395k where they've been trying to sell it since Sept... Or this one, sold in '07 for $480k, then sold last year for $385k and back on the market for $400k... I have to wonder how many of these McMansions (they all seem to be 3500'+?) were financed with sub-prime ARMs?

Check out the perfect storm that hit this place: http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1550-Peppermill-Rd-Lapeer-MI-48446/77821123_zpid/

Sold for $209,900 in 2010. 5500 sq ft, 13 acres, 5-car detached garage.

 

[dante]

Sold in April of '09 for $683k (almost $100k more than list? Mistake?), then put back on the market almost immediately for $100k less..... Fast forward and since it sold for $209k (listed "as is"), I'd guess that it's a stripped-out foreclosure with a LOT of interior damage.

Mmmmm, smells like deflation.

 

[$tinkle]

also, some of these who are on well/septic walked away before/without winterizing.

plumbing == garbage

 

[SkaredShtles]

Sold in April of '09 for $683k (almost $100k more than list? Mistake?), then put back on the market almost immediately for $100k less..... Fast forward and since it sold for $209k (listed "as is"), I'd guess that it's a stripped-out foreclosure with a LOT of interior damage.

Mmmmm, smells like deflation.

It was a divorce, foreclosure, eventual bank-sale. The bank took it in the SHORTS. No interior damage - house was in excellent condition when sold. You can see in the satellite that it has a shop/barn detached as well as the 5-car garage. Awesome!

 

[KavuRider]

Things are still kind of weird here in AZ.
Lots of homes still going into foreclosure in my neighborhood - lots of bank sales. That and these places are just old and in desperate need of renovation - but then they really aren't worth it.

Still sitting on mine...haven't decided what to do yet.

 

[Pesqueeb]

well, that's consistent w/ what we've been seeing here.

a house we withdrew a bid on only a few mos back finally moved 10% under our [very low] bid.

the sharks are circling...

Swanky. Tired of mingling with the common folk are you? Movin' on up

Things are still kind of weird here in AZ.
Lots of homes still going into foreclosure in my neighborhood - lots of bank sales. That and these places are just old and in desperate need of renovation - but then they really aren't worth it.

Still sitting on mine...haven't decided what to do yet.

Phoenix is the only area that went up in this report. Win?
http://www.standardandpoors.com/spf/docs/case-shiller/CSHomePrice_Release_013118.pdf

 

[Pesqueeb]

In other news: Good News?

 

[dante]

In other news: Good News?

Probation?

 

[Pesqueeb]

Probation?

Sounds about right to me.

 

[JetTeach]

In other news: Good News?

I was reading this earlier this morning. If I was anyone who had anything even remotely to do with MBS during that period I wouldn't be sleeping well at all. I predict this is just the first trickle of what will likely be an open floodgate...

 

[Pesqueeb]

I was reading this earlier this morning. If I was anyone who had anything even remotely to do with MBS during that period I wouldn't be sleeping well at all. I predict this is just the first trickle of what will likely be an open floodgate...

I heard something else this morning in regards to this issue about how it took 4 years for the very first crash of '29 indictments to start rolling in, so this may be just the beginning.

 

[JetTeach]

I heard something else this morning in regards to this issue about how it took 4 years for the very first crash of '29 indictments to start rolling in, so this may be just the beginning.

I would wager that a forensic accountant fresh out of school could make an entire career out of trying to figure out some of this mess.

 

[Pesqueeb]

Whoa.

NEW YORK — Two former Credit Suisse traders pleaded guilty to conspiracy and signed cooperation agreements Wednesday in a long-running probe of the federal sub-prime mortgage securities market that was expected to result in more arrests.

Salmaan Siddiqui, who worked for the company in Manhattan, and a former London-based managing director, David Higgs, entered pleas to a charge of conspiracy to falsify books and records and commit wire fraud, which carries a potential maximum sentence of five years in prison. ( )

Both admitted that they falsified the books to enhance their standing in the company and their year-end bonuses as the housing market collapsed.

"Today is a terribly difficult day for me and my family. I am truly sorry for what I've done," Higgs said. The defendant said he falsified records to enhance his job performance, which resulted in higher bonuses.

"I was directed by my bosses and my boss's bosses," Siddiqui said. His lawyer, Ira Sorkin, said after the plea that his client had a "minor role in the conspiracy."

The probe – which focuses on activities in 2007 and 2008 – centers on exaggerations brokers made about the value of subprime mortgage securities. Authorities say brokers enticed investors to pour money into the securities market for sub-prime mortgages by making the market sound healthy.

Higgs said his crime began in 2007, when the real estate market began to deteriorate in the United States and the valuations of mortgage-backed securities faced significant reductions.

The ensuing sub-prime mortgage crisis fueled the financial meltdown in the fall of 2008 that pushed the U.S. into the most severe recession since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

Higgs said a rising rate of mortgage delinquencies meant that the value of the securities backed by the mortgages decreased.

"Rather than mark these securities down to market as we were required to do," he said, Higgs and others manipulated and inflated the cash bond position markings of a trading book to hide losses in the book and meet monthly profit-and-loss objectives. He said the manipulations led senior management at Credit Suisse to get the false impression that the securities were profitable and caused the investment firm to report false year-end numbers for 2007 in their books and records.

"I did this because I wanted to remain in good favor with my boss ... and enhance my job performance," Higgs said.

Questioned by Judge Alison Nathan, Higgs said enhanced job performance would result in higher year-end bonuses.

Higgs, a UK citizen, will remain free on $500,000 bail and will be permitted to remain in England while he cooperates with prosecutors.

His lawyer, John L. Brownlee, declined to comment.

Siddiqui, 31, of McLean, Va., was freed on $500,000 bail.

Federal regulators have brought civil charges against several big Wall Street firms accused of misleading investors about securities linked to risky mortgages in the years leading up to the financial crisis. The biggest settlement of the Securities and Exchange Commission's charges was with Goldman Sachs in July 2010. The firm agreed to pay $550 million.

Most of the government's cases related to banks' handling of mortgage securities in the run-up to the financial crisis have been civil proceedings, not criminal. All the cases have involved complex investments called collateralized debt obligations. Those are securities that are backed by pools of other assets, such as mortgages.

A spokesman for the Securities and Exchange Commission, which may file similar civil charges in the Credit Suisse case, declined to comment Wednesday.

The government failed to win criminal convictions in a similar case brought against two Bear Stearns executives who ran hedge funds that collapsed after betting heavily on the subprime mortgage market. The two executives were acquitted in November 2009 of lying to investors.

Bear Stearns avoided bankruptcy in a rescue buyout by JPMorgan Chase in March 2008.

 

[syadasti]

David Higgs, entered pleas to a charge of conspiracy to falsify books and records and commit wire fraud, which carries a potential maximum sentence of five years in prison.

On a related note from popular memes:

Under SOPA you can get 5 years for pirating Michael Jackson music on the internet, 4 years for killing Michael Jackson as a medical professional.

50 years for running an Internet piracy portal or 10 Hail Marys for running a church of child abuse...

http://pandodaily.com/2012/01/18/how-hollywood-twisted-theft-laws-long-before-sopa/

 

[$tinkle]

i'm still hung up on this: what non-korean names their boy 'kim'?

 

[Pesqueeb]

LOS ANGELES (AP) — Banks took back more U.S. homes in January than in the previous month, the latest sign that foreclosures are accelerating after slowing sharply last year while lenders sorted out foreclosure-abuse claims.

Foreclosures rose 8 percent nationally last month from December, but were down 15 percent from a year earlier, foreclosure listing firm RealtyTrac Inc. said Thursday.

Despite the annual decrease at the national level, some states posted sharp increases compared to January 2011. In New Hampshire, foreclosures jumped 62 percent. In Massachusetts, 75 percent.

That trend is expected to strengthen this year in light of last week's $25 billion settlement between the nation's biggest mortgage lenders and 49 state attorneys general over the industry's handling of foreclosures.

Many banks and mortgage servicers processed foreclosures without verifying documents. Some employees signed papers they hadn't read or used fake signatures to speed foreclosures — a practice dubbed "robo-signing."

Major banks temporarily put foreclosures on hold after the problems surfaced in the fall of 2010. Some had to refile previously filed foreclosure cases and revisit pending cases to prevent errors. Those delays and uncertainty over state and federal probes into the industry's foreclosure practices led to a sharp slowdown in foreclosure activity last year.

The settlement between the banks and state attorneys general helps clarify the rules banks must follow to foreclose on borrowers, said Daren Blomquist, a vice president at RealtyTrac. That will pave the way for more foreclosures, he said.

"The settlement will accelerate the foreclosures that are happening this year and it will accelerate the process of lenders catching up on the backlog of foreclosures that has been building up over the last year and a half," Blomquist said.

Credit rating agency Fitch Ratings also anticipates foreclosures will climb nationally this year, but not right away, noting it will take some time for lenders and mortgage servicers to make sure they are in compliance with the rules set forth in the settlement.

"You probably are going to see the pace pick up as the year goes on," said Grant Bailey, a managing director at Fitch.

RealtyTrac projects foreclosures will rise 25 percent this year to 1 million homes. Last year, lenders took back 804,000 homes.

Even so, the rise in foreclosures isn't expected to be uniform nationwide. That's because the settlement isn't likely to ease the backlog of foreclosure cases in states where courts play a role in the process.

In addition, some states have taken steps to slow lenders down.

Throughout the housing downturn Nevada has had the nation's highest foreclosure rate. There, a law that went into effect in October requires that foreclosure documents must be filed in the county where a property is located and a lender must provide a notarized affidavit detailing their legal right to proceed.

That has contributed to fewer homes entering the foreclosure process, but also a smaller pool of foreclosed homes available for sale in places like Las Vegas.

There are as many as 3,000 fewer homes listed for sale in the greater Las Vegas market than just a year ago, said Rosa Herwick, a broker and owner of Century 21 JR Realty in Henderson, Nev.

That's made multiple offers on foreclosures and other properties priced up to $250,000 commonplace, she said.

"There are tons of homes sitting out here vacant that people haven't paid on for two years, or whatever the case, that should be in the foreclosure pipeline and are not yet," Herwick said.

Foreclosure activity in Nevada fell 8 percent last month from December, but was down 52 percent from January last year, RealtyTrac said.

High unemployment, a sluggish housing market and falling home values remain major factors in homeowners falling behind on their mortgage payments. Many borrowers also have simply stopped paying their mortgage because they owe more on the mortgage than the home is worth.

All told, 210,941 U.S. homes received a default notice, were scheduled for auction or were repossessed by a lender in January, RealtyTrac said.

That's up 3 percent from December, but a drop of 19 percent from January last year. The foreclosure rate translates to one in every 624 U.S. households.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=146963346

 

[Pesqueeb]

Interesting anecdote.

Meet Willow Tufano, age 14: Lady Gaga fan, animal lover, landlord.

In 2005, when Willow was 7, the housing market was booming . Home prices in some Florida neighborhoods nearly doubled from one month to the next. Her family moved into a big house; her mom became a real estate agent.

But as Willow moved from childhood to adolescence, the market turned, and the neighborhood emptied out. "Everyone is getting foreclosed on here," she says.

After the collapse, Willow's mom started working with investors who wanted to bid on cheap, foreclosed homes. Sometimes Willow tagged along.


One day, she went to a house that an investor wanted to flip. "It was filled with all kinds of stuff!" Willow says. "I was like, 'I can sell this stuff if he'd want to let me have it.'"

That was fine with the investor. So Willow sold the furniture and appliances from the house on Craigslist. She did the same thing with a bunch more houses. After a while, she was clearing about $500 a month, and saving a lot of it.

One day, Willow's mom, Shannon, saw a two-bedroom, concrete-block home on auction for $12,000 — down from $100,000 at the peak of the bubble. Shannon was telling her husband about the house, when Willow piped up.

"I was like, 'What if I bought a house?'" Willow says. "That would be crazy."

Willow wound up splitting the house with her mom. Willow plans to buy her mom out in the next few years, and put her name on the title when she turns 18.

The place was a mess when they bought it — "like there was a riot or something," Willow says.

They cleaned it up and rented it out to a young couple for $700 a month.

As I was working on this story, I kept thinking that when a 14 year-old kid can buy a house, the market must have hit bottom. I kept saying this to Willow, and she'd sort of vaguely nod.

But It's hard for Willow to see herself as symbolic of anything. To a 14 year-old kid in Florida, the housing collapse is basically the only world she's known. It's the landscape. It's a Craigslist hobby.

She's thinking she may save up for a second home

http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2012/03/09/148218539/this-14-year-old-girl-just-bought-a-house-in-florida?sc=fb&cc=fp

 

[Pesqueeb]

Good news for AZ monkeys I guess.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-home-prices-20120328,0,7146772.story

 

[dante]

Refi rates creeping up aren't going to help, although it looks like rates are either back down or have stayed down even while the 10y US treasury is up. ^TNX is up to 2.2% (from 1.8%), but our local credit union is still offering a 3.875% mortgage rate (1/8th pt below both Wells Fargo and a local bank). If mortgage rates spring back into the 5s (or even 6s), it's going to be a HUGE damper on the market.

 

[Toshi]

Good news for AZ monkeys I guess.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-home-prices-20120328,0,7146772.story

The analysts in that article are either deluded or are actively trying to blow smoke up our collective asses.

"Falling prices are not so much a reflection of market health, but rather the result of banks disposing of distressed assets by offering low prices to cash buyers," said Gary Painter, an economist with the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate. "As these distressed properties are taken off the market, that trend will end."

Why is this such an egregious statement? The shadow inventory of 1.6M properties, that's why.

http://touch.calculatedriskblog.com/calculatedrisk/#!/entry/existing-home-shadow-inventory-remains-at-16-million-units,4f6a52b2ccffedc5690001f2

 

[Pesqueeb]

Why is this such an egregious statement? The shadow inventory of 1.6M properties, that's why.

No, the analyst is still correct, he just doesn't mention that "distressed properties" = 1.6 million homes. That really can't possibly take any longer than 10 or 15 year. Why are you splitting hairs?