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More real estate doom and gloom

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$tinkle

Expert on blowing
Feb 12, 2003
14,591
6
Edit: Pretty sure no one who could afford Black Forest is moving into my hood, but supply/demand.
ah, but you'd be mistaken. there were quite a few lean-to's & crackerboxes sprinkled there. not just all Cathedral Pines, which now is worth pennies on the dollar for any structures that survived.

commiserating with a couple last night at their home, in fact (hodgen/hwy 83 is within view).
 

dante

Unabomber
Feb 13, 2004
8,807
9
looking for classic NE singletrack
I just don't understand how people can take out variable loans at this point. Was nothing learned just FIVE years ago?
Honestly, if we were buying a house with rates shooting up, we'd probably take out a 5 or 7 year ARM.... and eat rice and beans for 5 years and have it paid off by the time our rate adjusted. Then again, we're not most people. Actually looked into it the last time we refinanced, and with the limit on how much the rate can adjust year to year we would've had 7-10 years to pay it off (or refinance) before it got above 5 or 6%. Opted for a fixed 30y just for ease of mind, but it was certainly possible.

According to Zillow our house is up ~14.5% from April 2012 - April 2013, but that's mostly because it plummeted in value sometime around December 2011, to the point that we were almost under water on it. A neighborhood short-sale or foreclosure must have gone through right around then...
 

stevew

resident influencer
Sep 21, 2001
41,159
10,097
this is high plains sprawlsville; no dirt goes undeveloped, regardless of water issues
i think i went to colorado springs once in seven years.....garden of the gods with a friend and her cranky kid....lasted about 20 minutes and i said fvck it.
 

Pesqueeb

bicycle in airplane hangar
Feb 2, 2007
41,820
19,135
Riding the baggage carousel.
how many have rebuilt and how many just said fvck it?
this is high plains sprawlsville; no dirt goes undeveloped, regardless of water issues
:stupid:

I rode the scooter through the area 2-3(?) weeks ago and it seems the vast majority are being rebuilt. I have heard a couple anecdotes now of people from the Waldo Canyon area who decided eff-it and relocated to Black Forest. Frying pan>Fire.
 

clarkenstein

Monkey
Nov 28, 2008
244
0
Odds on any criminal prosecutions?
i wouldn't put any money on it. purely because to prove that laws were broken would be really really hard. ok maybe not "hard", its probably because they are too lazy, too scared to take on such a big lawsuit, and flat-out bought people sucking the teat of rich people who can actually buy and sell everything. i think we would all love a scapegoat, but we'd have to put the entire financial sector in that bucket. i think these guys would flush the economy down the toilet just to prove they are right too.

maybe i have to take the blue pill and accept that goldman sachs runs/owns/trades 'murica. in the meantime, i'm going to go try to guess their next move and do some daytrading to take up the rest of my day.
 

jimmydean

The Official Meat of Ridemonkey
Sep 10, 2001
43,075
15,163
Portland, OR
10 cities where ordinary people can no longer afford homes

The 10 areas in the list below are ranked by the increase in income required to buy a typical home from December 2012 to December 2013. We also included RealtyTrac’s affordability-index rating for the county each city is located in, to exclude cities in which required incomes have risen but homes are still relatively cheap. (The affordability index represents the median income per county as a percentage of the required income for a typical home purchase, so cities with a rating below 100 are less affordable while those above 100 are more affordable). We also grouped cities in northern and southern California into two entries, since there are so many of them. Here are the 10 areas where home affordability is deteriorating the most:
 

jimmydean

The Official Meat of Ridemonkey
Sep 10, 2001
43,075
15,163
Portland, OR
3bed 2 bath in Laurelhurst, 2300 aint that bad. (Laurelhurst is one of the Yippiest neighborhoods in pdx) now if that was in cully should run for the hills.
ftfy.

I would like to be in SE around 30th or less. My son is off 28th and Division, it's a nice area and walkable.

<edit> IMO $2300 is bad. I was paying $800 for a smallish house on 1/4 acre 2 blocks from downtown in Forest Grove. I'd be willing to pay up to $1600 in town, but it aint happening there for that.
 
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Pesqueeb

bicycle in airplane hangar
Feb 2, 2007
41,820
19,135
Riding the baggage carousel.
...somewhere, pesqueeb is weeping bitterly
Meh, I'm over it.


Anecdotally, Jimmydean's article and my recent trip to LA make me think we're, if not already in, quickly approaching another real estate bubble. My buddies place in LA has gone up $350,000 in a year, and according to him (he's involved in real estate) prices all over teh metro area and in NorCal are all behaving similarly. Might be a good time to speculate in real estate, California always leads the nation when it comes to housing trends.
 
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dante

Unabomber
Feb 13, 2004
8,807
9
looking for classic NE singletrack
ftfy.

I would like to be in SE around 30th or less. My son is off 28th and Division, it's a nice area and walkable.

<edit> IMO $2300 is bad. I was paying $800 for a smallish house on 1/4 acre 2 blocks from downtown in Forest Grove. I'd be willing to pay up to $1600 in town, but it aint happening there for that.
Really? That sounds like a steal to me. Around here things are roughly a dollar a square foot for a home rental, at least if they're not anywhere near the University. Then you get things like this, $3k/month for a 5br (1600') house:

http://madison.craigslist.org/apa/4327938533.html
 

jimmydean

The Official Meat of Ridemonkey
Sep 10, 2001
43,075
15,163
Portland, OR
Rent in Portland has gone nuts over the last couple years. After the bubble, you had a hard time finding a place to rent. But rent and prices have started to level off, just at a much higher level than anticipated and it seems Portland still has a lot of foreclosures on the books that haven't moved.

Hell, the house next door has been vacant for almost 2 years now. The owner went to jail and the bank foreclosed, but it's sat empty since. Not for sale, just sitting. The neighbor across the street mows the front yard so it doesn't look too bad. :rofl:

But no telling if/when the bank will decide to do anything with it. It's a damn nice 4 bed 2.5 bath that's only 12 years old.
 

Pesqueeb

bicycle in airplane hangar
Feb 2, 2007
41,820
19,135
Riding the baggage carousel.
Meh, I'm over it.


Anecdotally, Jimmydean's article and my recent trip to LA make me think we're, if not already in, quickly approaching another real estate bubble. My buddies place in LA has gone up $350,000 in a year, and according to him (he's involved in real estate) prices all over teh metro area and in NorCal are all behaving similarly. Might be a good time to speculate in real estate, California always leads the nation when it comes to housing trends.
In the last week, I've received, 1 email, 1 mailer, and just now, one doorstep flyer, all from different agents trying to get me to sell my house. It's just like 2004, all over again. Gotta admit, I'm tempted to sell.
 

$tinkle

Expert on blowing
Feb 12, 2003
14,591
6
and in similar vein, house up the hill my friends live in just sold after being on the market 96hrs. of course, it was 'priced to sell' at just under $700k.

eff that.
 

Toshi

butthole powerwashing evangelist
Oct 23, 2001
39,748
8,748
Ugh. Perfect time for market to be heating up again. I'll be buying late winter or spring time, assuming I don't entirely suck at my new position.