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More real estate doom and gloom

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wiscodh

Monkey
Jun 21, 2007
833
121
303
Buy high and sell low! You could live in @Toshi's basement.
word looking for a new mcmansion while i am un employed following the wife (engineer with exp looking for work!!). Totes can get a jumbo no pmi. This markets not going to crash......im looking to purchase a bridge as an investment property too.
 

Toshi

butthole powerwashing evangelist
Oct 23, 2001
39,748
8,748
What a bargain!

1300 sq ft, eh? I just had a good laugh looking over other completed listings. Our new construction in a good school district with prepaid solar, super thick walls, 21 SEER AC, etc was $189/sq ft and even that seemed dear.
 

mandown

Poopdeck Repost
Jun 1, 2004
21,802
9,112
Transylvania 90210
As in "there's no accounting for some monkeys"?
One of these is not like the other.

Buddy of mine was telling me about how house prices in one hood went way up in the last year. I ran the numbers. Most of the value increase came from lower rates. Net monthly payment barely moved.
 

jimmydean

The Official Meat of Ridemonkey
Sep 10, 2001
43,075
15,163
Portland, OR
One of these is not like the other.

Buddy of mine was telling me about how house prices in one hood went way up in the last year. I ran the numbers. Most of the value increase came from lower rates. Net monthly payment barely moved.
The issue is limiting buyers due to price, or banks starting to loosen requirements. Now you can buy a house with only 10% down, if you can find one to buy in a price range you can afford. While not as bad as San Francisco or San Jose, Portland has gotten insane in the last 2 years.

Real Estate buddy has houses selling in under a week averaging 20% OVER list. So the already inflated price just got 20% moar.

<edit> Insane meaning good luck finding a small house for under $300k.
 

mandown

Poopdeck Repost
Jun 1, 2004
21,802
9,112
Transylvania 90210
The issue is limiting buyers due to price, or banks starting to loosen requirements. Now you can buy a house with only 10% down, if you can find one to buy in a price range you can afford. While not as bad as San Francisco or San Jose, Portland has gotten insane in the last 2 years.

Real Estate buddy has houses selling in under a week averaging 20% OVER list. So the already inflated price just got 20% moar.

<edit> Insane meaning good luck finding a small house for under $300k.
Dumb people. Crank up the rates. It drops the house prices, which drops the down payment, and drops the prop tax, and gives you more interest deduction. People can only pay what they can pay. Cash net out flow won't move much for the monthly. Jumping on a home now just because rates are low and "I'll never get a rate like this again" is shortsighted. Dropping rates benefits the wealthy who have capital to invest. The working folks are getting pinched as the rates drop and prices spike because they've got a cash barrier limiting their down payment. God only knows what they sacrifice for grabbing a house in a panic.

Edit:
I've got a friend who is the first of mine to sell her house because of the appreciation, bank the money and rent for a while in a hood with a better school district for her kid. I doubt she's unique in this tactic.
 
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mandown

Poopdeck Repost
Jun 1, 2004
21,802
9,112
Transylvania 90210
...also saw a great dumb article getting my friends on FB all worked up. It was saying how many hours a week you'd need to work at minimum wage to afford the median monthly rental rate for a one bedroom, by state. First problem is that some states like California have median rates wildly distorted by big cities like LA and SF. Second problem is that if you make *minimum wage* you don't get to live in the median anything. Enjoy your roommate or studio situation, and don't complain about not being able to live a lifestyle that doesn't fit your lifestyle.
 

jimmydean

The Official Meat of Ridemonkey
Sep 10, 2001
43,075
15,163
Portland, OR
Edit:
I've got a friend who is the first of mine to sell her house because of the appreciation, bank the money and rent for a while in a hood with a better school district for her kid. I doubt she's unique in this tactic.
This is actually what we are looking to do. Either find a place we like and rent there, then buy or just rent and put our money into a vacation property (cabin in the woods by a river). She bought in '06 at the worst time and her rate is awful as well. But based on Zillow, houses in our area are selling for 20% or better than what she owes. But looking at rents makes me ill, the idea of paying $2400/month is just insane.

It is a hell of a lot nicer than ours, though. But still.

http://portland.craigslist.org/mlt/apa/5718098090.html
 

mandown

Poopdeck Repost
Jun 1, 2004
21,802
9,112
Transylvania 90210
On the bright side, when rates increase and people can't afford to borrow expensive money, at least the resulting depressed home values will reduce the amount the average bear can borrow against the inflated home value of phantom equity. That ought to loosen up the market with liquidity.
 

jimmydean

The Official Meat of Ridemonkey
Sep 10, 2001
43,075
15,163
Portland, OR
saw this the other day. fuck 'em.
What's funny is someone is finally seeing a link between huge cash real estate purchases and money laundering. But if your investment loses too much money, then you go back to putting it into shady overseas banks.
 

jonKranked

Detective Dookie
Nov 10, 2005
88,802
27,011
media blackout
What's funny is someone is finally seeing a link between huge cash real estate purchases and money laundering. But if your investment loses too much money, then you go back to putting it into shady overseas banks.
possibly related is that someone was caught trying to enter mexico from CA with $3mil in cash in a VW passat
 

mykel

closer to Periwinkle
Apr 19, 2013
5,487
4,212
sw ontario canada
Big cash economy partly due to forcing the local "The Olde Weed Shoppe" to do business in dollar bills; would this have any bearing on the issue? I'm from WAY outta state, so no real knowledge...
 

jonKranked

Detective Dookie
Nov 10, 2005
88,802
27,011
media blackout
Big cash economy partly due to forcing the local "The Olde Weed Shoppe" to do business in dollar bills; would this have any bearing on the issue? I'm from WAY outta state, so no real knowledge...
unlikely, or at least not to any degree that matters. this part of CO was expensive real estate long before they legalized.

also, the article notes other areas experiencing the same issue where weed isn't legal.
 

jimmydean

The Official Meat of Ridemonkey
Sep 10, 2001
43,075
15,163
Portland, OR
McMansions continue to falter

housing analysts say the day of the McMansion has come and gone. An analysis just completed by Trulia shows that the amount buyers are willing to pay for McMansions over other homes has fallen 26 percent in just four years. As homes in general have been regaining value, McMansions have been losing appeal in comparison to others as the giants of the pre-crash years have aged.
 

jimmydean

The Official Meat of Ridemonkey
Sep 10, 2001
43,075
15,163
Portland, OR
Full retard.

80916 includes the airport and Peterson AFB. When the 4th "hottest" real estate zipcode shares a zip with any airport, shit is way past being rational.
Reminds me of when the rich folk in San Diego bitched about the Navy being too loud at Miramar. So the military sent the Top Gun school to the desert and moved the Marines in. It sounded like a great idea until you consider:

A. Marines get up WAY earlier than the Navy
B. Harrier's are a lot louder than Navy planes and can (and often do) hover.

Values went down, it was funny.

 

Pesqueeb

bicycle in airplane hangar
Feb 2, 2007
41,820
19,134
Riding the baggage carousel.
Reminds me of when the rich folk in San Diego bitched about the Navy being too loud at Miramar. So the military sent the Top Gun school to the desert and moved the Marines in. It sounded like a great idea until you consider:

A. Marines get up WAY earlier than the Navy
B. Harrier's are a lot louder than Navy planes and can (and often do) hover.

Values went down, it was funny.

Funny you mention that. There is a huge new "master planned community" going in not even half a mile south of Runway 17R/35L. I give it 2 years before noise complaints become an issue for the city.
 

Toshi

butthole powerwashing evangelist
Oct 23, 2001
39,748
8,748
Funny you mention that. There is a huge new "master planned community" going in not even half a mile south of Runway 17R/35L. I give it 2 years before noise complaints become an issue for the city.
Silly people, you're supposed to wait until the airport is shuttered a la Stapleton before developing fancy houses.
 

jimmydean

The Official Meat of Ridemonkey
Sep 10, 2001
43,075
15,163
Portland, OR
Funny you mention that. There is a huge new "master planned community" going in not even half a mile south of Runway 17R/35L. I give it 2 years before noise complaints become an issue for the city.
Hey, if the jackasses that bought the expensive condos NEXT DOOR TO UNION STATION were able to get trains to stop blowing safety horns, maybe they can get planes to shut off engines and just glide in quietly.

:rofl:
 

jimmydean

The Official Meat of Ridemonkey
Sep 10, 2001
43,075
15,163
Portland, OR
Silly people, you're supposed to wait until the airport is shuttered a la Stapleton before developing fancy houses.
There is a weird trail system in SeaTac that used to be housing before they build the airport. All the roads are gone, but not all of the sidewalks and fire hydrants. I remember riding there once when sideways was out west, kinda cool and kinda creepy at the same time.
 

jimmydean

The Official Meat of Ridemonkey
Sep 10, 2001
43,075
15,163
Portland, OR
Mortgage applications tank 9%

"Following the election, mortgage rates saw their biggest week-over-week increase since the taper tantrum in June 2013, and reached their highest level since January of this year," said David Stevens, president and CEO of the Mortgage Bankers Association. "Investor expectations of faster growth and higher inflation are driving the jump up in rates, and rates have now increased for five of the past six weeks, spurring a commensurate drop in refinance activity."